US: Senate has reached a bipartisan deal to extend government funding, in a major sign the shutdown is poised to end | Metals Mine
Added at 6:19pm
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  • Shutdown end in sight as centrist Democrats back Senate stopgap deal to reopen government

    From investinglive.com

    The U.S. government shutdown appeared close to ending after a group of centrist Senate Democrats agreed to support a stopgap deal to reopen key agencies and provide temporary funding. • Under the proposal, federal employees would receive back pay and states would resume delayed federal transfers. • The measure would fund certain departments through January 30, while others would receive full-year appropriations. However, the bill faces a tough path in the House. Democratic leaders have spoken out against the compromise, arguing it concedes too much to Republicans. At the same time, conservative GOP lawmakers are ... (full story)

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ffghost
Nov 9, 2025 9:37pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#2818
{quote} Futures just blew through the opening, and the shutdown isn’t even confirmed yet, should go up more on the actual passing of the bills. The catalyst will be the sudden release of weeks of economic data, that could send us moving up or down, but market says 90% probability of higher. Not sure how many know this, but bull markets are not defined by their up days, they are defined by their down days. Every down day during this run has proven we are in a bull market. Never follow through, never breaking a prior low. Basically ask yourself this...
You are not wrong, but be cautions with terms like "prior low". Was 10/22 the prior low for the SPX? If so, it was broken (but certainly not closed below). As for bears not being able to put together a continuation, you are still inside the slide from the FOMC meeting. So, until that is confirmed as "over" (again, subjective....are we saying a new ATH is required here, or simply a break above the descending TL?, etc), the bears are still "in control", technically.

All that said, I am playing to the upside along with you...but let's not just ignore the info that is in front of us but might not mesh with our desires.

FWIW though, you are correct on 'major' prior lows not being taken out. The 50day MA has also proven to be strong support on multiple occasions. Though, I am always fearful when we get several touches on MAs...eventually, they break through.

Best of luck this week to all!
Reply
The Fool
Nov 9, 2025 8:34pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#244C
{quote} Just visited a large nice mall in America this weekend. Completely wall to wall people all with bags filled with expensive things. Not sure how that translates to your uncouth reference.
Wow, people at a mall are shopping. Brilliant observation.
The Fool
Nov 9, 2025 9:51pm
Permalink
The SnP longer term is driven by fundies and by movement in the top dozen names. Intraday and near term moves are heavily influenced by 0dte options flows. The value of SPX options traded (and related market maker hedging) on a daily basis is the biggest thing happening in the index on any given day, far bigger than any individual stocks. Market makers are buying/selling SPY and /ES to keep up with the 0dte options trade. The antiquated notion of establishing a "support level" at a given number, because /ES or SPX touched that level a couple times a few weeks ago - that shit is played. All the support and resistance levels you are relying on are just nothing: the product will move through them in response to what is happening in the options market today, in the 0dte space. If you do not understand any of this, you are at a disadvantage if trying to daytrade any of the SnP products.
The Fool
Nov 9, 2025 10:03pm
Permalink
Quoting Bogdan62
{quote}Already 42$ up.
the week depends on whether or not dip buyers come in for the AI stocks that were beat down in the last weeks. If there's still some angst around those, the shutdown buzz may fizzle after a day or so.
ffghost
Nov 9, 2025 7:30pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#244C
{quote} It’s what you said previously. Take current levels vs. Friday’s low. That’s a huge quick move. It’s apparent the big boys knew this was coming on Friday afternoon. We are also currently above levels that most everyone here said were impossible a few months ago.
To be fair, the move down to the 50 day MA for the /nq was the support. Pretty much spot on where VC was suggesting a pullback should go (24800-25000). I would have preferred to be ADDING down there vs just floating a few dozen long contracts, but the risks for further moves were too great as the bottom was dropping out Friday morning. Once the MA was taken out and Thune made his "deal" comments, the markets stabilized and had the nice bounce.

All that said, I do hope this is at least the start of a retracement. Even a healthy 61.8% fib would suffice, I don't need new ATHs instantly. We shall see though, we shall see.
Reply
The Fool
Nov 9, 2025 6:39pm
Permalink
politics has not so much effect on the AI boom stocks - if they remain under pressure, the shutdown end won't help them.
The Fool
Nov 9, 2025 9:54pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Best of luck this week to all!...
Back atcha ghost, could be a big week for the bulls.
ffghost
Nov 9, 2025 6:33pm
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...not much movement in the markets though, eh? I guess there isn't as much faith in the House taking the baton?
Reply
BillyIdol
Nov 9, 2025 6:48pm
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Quoting DanyFeature
And gold continues to not give one single shit
Dude, America is so fucked and Gold knows it. Opening goverment for a month means nothing
Reply
Bogdan62
Nov 9, 2025 8:35pm
Permalink
Quoting DanyFeature
And gold continues to not give one single shit
Already 42$ up.
Reply
DanyFeature
Nov 9, 2025 6:38pm
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And gold continues to not give one single shit
Reply
neesh24
Nov 10, 2025 5:57am
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Good Ol'e Cavin' Chuck Schumer doing what he does best.
Reply
Trader#244C
Nov 9, 2025 6:58pm
Permalink
Quoting ffghost
...not much movement in the markets though, eh? I guess there isn't as much faith in the House taking the baton?
It’s what you said previously. Take current levels vs. Friday’s low. That’s a huge quick move. It’s apparent the big boys knew this was coming on Friday afternoon. We are also currently above levels that most everyone here said were impossible a few months ago.
Reply
Trader#244C
Nov 9, 2025 7:00pm
Permalink
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} Dude, America is so fucked and Gold knows it. Opening goverment for a month means nothing
Just visited a large nice mall in America this weekend. Completely wall to wall people all with bags filled with expensive things. Not sure how that translates to your uncouth reference.
Reply
Trader#2818
Nov 9, 2025 8:00pm
Permalink
Quoting ffghost
{quote} To be fair, the move down to the 50 day MA for the /nq was the support. Pretty much spot on where VC was suggesting a pullback should go (24800-25000). I would have preferred to be ADDING down there vs just floating a few dozen long contracts, but the risks for further moves were too great as the bottom was dropping out Friday morning. Once the MA was taken out and Thune made his "deal" comments, the markets stabilized and had the nice bounce. All that said, I do hope this is at least the start of a retracement. Even a healthy...
Futures just blew through the opening, and the shutdown isn’t even confirmed yet, should go up more on the actual passing of the bills. The catalyst will be the sudden release of weeks of economic data, that could send us moving up or down, but market says 90% probability of higher. Not sure how many know this, but bull markets are not defined by their up days, they are defined by their down days. Every down day during this run has proven we are in a bull market. Never follow through, never breaking a prior low. Basically ask yourself this question for every down day at the end of the day, is this the best the bears can do? If bears can’t get two down weeks in row in a 40%+ move up, they are by definition irrelevant.
Reply
Trader#C7BF
Nov 10, 2025 2:54am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#2818
{quote} Futures just blew through the opening, and the shutdown isn’t even confirmed yet, should go up more on the actual passing of the bills. The catalyst will be the sudden release of weeks of economic data, that could send us moving up or down, but market says 90% probability of higher. Not sure how many know this, but bull markets are not defined by their up days, they are defined by their down days. Every down day during this run has proven we are in a bull market. Never follow through, never breaking a prior low. Basically ask yourself this...
Awesome, I am happy that Shutdown ending soon.
Reply
krisfx99
Nov 10, 2025 3:34am
Permalink
Poor dems got played again. Sad they are born to only lose. They ditched the people of US.
Reply
Trader#C7BF
Nov 10, 2025 2:53am
Permalink
Good, that is required to boost the stock market today
Reply

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