Fed's Stephen Miran says that he does not see tariffs having driven the inflation, and that his forecasts indicate another rate cut in December | Metals Mine

  • Fed's Stephen Miran says that he does not see tariffs having driven the inflation, and that his forecasts indicate another rate cut in December

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Schultz
Nov 1, 2025 7:17am — Edited
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I prefer statements such as these to be more like "based on rigorous research undertaken both by myself and my colleagues, the facts indicate that...."

Data driven research, with known error bands.

Instead, Miran sees things, or does not see things. He bases his forecasts on these things that he does not see.

All rather mystic. Perhaps he waves his hands a bit to see which way the wind is blowing.
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The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 8:18am
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You get into the Heritage Foundation by espousing Christian Nationalist views. Whatever it takes to advance that cause is what you do.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/...185600172.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/...200000885.html
The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 11:58am
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The Fed cut 100 bps in 2024, now has done another 50 bps in 2025. However, the 10yr rate has not changed yoy since the beginning of 2024 - we are still sitting right around 4.0%. You kind of have to wonder what they would have to do to bring down the longer term rates.

The 1-yr rate is down correspondingly since the beginning of 2024 - down from 2.5% to 1.1%. This is what the current administration wants, as they push most new debt issuance down into shorter term notes.

But that's no help for citizen debt holders, whose mortgages and car loans are more related to the 10yr rate.
The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 11:24am
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The equal weighted SnP index is up about 7% in 2025, while the SnP as a whole is up 17%. If you take the cap-weighted top 10 out of the 500, the equal-wweiighted index would be dead flat.
ww3361
Nov 1, 2025 11:05am
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Quoting Schultz
I prefer statements such as these to be more like "based on rigorous research undertaken both by myself and my colleagues, the facts indicate that...." Data driven research, with known error bands. Instead, Miran sees things, or does not see things. He bases his forecasts on these things that he does not see. All rather mystic. Perhaps he waves his hands a bit to see which way the wind is blowing.
You want a comforting lie?

Error bands… Really?!
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Vancarbon
Nov 1, 2025 12:51pm
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Quoting The Fool
The equal weighted SnP index is up about 7% in 2025, while the SnP as a whole is up 17%. If you take the cap-weighted top 10 out of the 500, the equal-wweiighted index would be dead flat.
Fun facts :

Sharing a screenshot of a Reddit post on the survey, Cohen said on X, “Wild Stat of the Day: 76-78% of Nvidia employees are now millionaires, with approximately 50% having a net worth over $25 million 9 Aug 2025

Analysts are calling Nvidia the stock of the decade—some forecast a $1,000 share price by 2030 as AI demand skyrockets.19 Sept 2025

About 90% of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest 10% of US households

Keep the 10% happy that’s all that matters in the US .
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Schultz
Nov 1, 2025 1:26pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Analysts are calling Nvidia the stock of the decade—some forecast a $1,000 share price by 2030 as AI demand skyrockets.
At least they could have spelt their name with another vowel. Just a little one. Not much to ask.
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The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 11:14am — Edited
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Quoting PiipPool
Soon the whole fed board of governors will be trump administration plants
JPow admitted that the interest rates are irrelevant for companies like Nvidia. They are sitting on a mountain of cash, with a $trillion backlog of chip orders, and they don't need debt. NVDA now 10% of the entire SnP 500. Throw in the rest of the top 10, probably soon they will be half of it. They are doing business with each other and are not related to the economy on Main Street USA. The more the above becomes true, the more irrelevant the Fed becomes.
Nordling
Nov 1, 2025 1:28pm
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Quoting Schultz
I prefer statements such as these to be more like "based on rigorous research undertaken both by myself and my colleagues, the facts indicate that...." Data driven research, with known error bands. Instead, Miran sees things, or does not see things. He bases his forecasts on these things that he does not see. All rather mystic. Perhaps he waves his hands a bit to see which way the wind is blowing.
Yeah Miran is an easy guy to read, "My owner wanted me to cut the rates, so i am voting for cuts" easy and simple.

In that case, i think you can like the Turkish Central Bank. "My owner wanted me to cut the rates, so we are all voting in favor of it". It's full of guys like Miran.
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The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 1:31pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} 90% of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest 10% of US households Keep the 10% happy that’s all that matters in the US .
I'm not complaining about long bond yields. I had my heart set on >5% though. As is, I have most of my options trading accounts in SGOV, which yields 4.35% and is 75% marginable.
The Fool
Nov 1, 2025 1:39pm
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres...120200085.html

What's kind of sad is the number of "millionaires" you meet these days who are really just living paycheck to paycheck. $1,000,000 ain't what it used to be.
GainingBucks
Nov 1, 2025 12:09pm
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Quoting Schultz
I prefer statements such as these to be more like "based on rigorous research undertaken both by myself and my colleagues, the facts indicate that...." Data driven research, with known error bands. Instead, Miran sees things, or does not see things. He bases his forecasts on these things that he does not see. All rather mystic. Perhaps he waves his hands a bit to see which way the wind is blowing.
First day hearing something in the news? Even when things are data driven they are often based off of false data or opinions.
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GainingBucks
Nov 1, 2025 5:53pm
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} And what does that have to do with what Miran said? I don't understand your possibly very valuable point about Miran that you have thought about a lot. Economic forecasts by an economist are not based on opinions or on knowingly false data.
What Miran said is the same bs they all say nothing new. Why act surprised?

Yes they are.
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Schultz
Nov 1, 2025 12:08pm — Edited
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Quoting ww3361
{quote} You want a comforting lie? Error bands… Really?!
Yeah, silly me eh? Thankyou for reminding me what kind of third world country we're dealing with.

It's just normal practice elsewhere in the world.
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Schultz
Nov 1, 2025 12:13pm — Edited
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Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} First day hearing something in the news? Even when things are data driven they are often based off of false data or opinions.
In your country, OK, I accept that.
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Schultz
Nov 1, 2025 12:43pm
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Quoting The Fool
The Fed cut 100 bps in 2024, now has done another 50 bps in 2025. However, the 10yr rate has not changed yoy since the beginning of 2024 - we are still sitting right around 4.0%. You kind of have to wonder what they would have to do to bring down the longer term rates. The 1-yr rate is down correspondingly since the beginning of 2024 - down from 2.5% to 1.1%. This is what the current administration wants, as they push most new debt issuance down into shorter term notes. But that's no help for citizen debt holders, whose mortgages and car...
What is interesting (at least to me) is that most central banks have been in QT for a couple years at least. Either letting assets mature or selling them. I think the Fed is light about 3 trillion compared to the peak a few years ago.

So rather than bringing down yields, this would cause yields to be higher than if there was no QT. This is obviously flying well under the radar in the Palace of the Trump.

Something that Miran could have been bleating about, and perhaps he did, but I think what the Fed is doing isn't in the fields where fairies blossom and butterflies twinkle.

The Fed as stopped, now, or very shortly, btw. Liquidity is tightening a bit too much for comfort.

But as you say, long yields remain stable at about 4%. 10years were at 4% in Oct 2022. That is three years.
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PiipPool
Nov 1, 2025 11:07am
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Soon the whole fed board of governors will be trump administration plants
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Polimini
Nov 2, 2025 4:45am
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sure!
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leevanyao
Nov 2, 2025 3:27am
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does he speaks without any shame? does not he knows he lives on kissing trump's asss?
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Trader#2FDF
Nov 2, 2025 5:17am
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Who say tariffs does not increase inflation lolzzz this guy talked non-sense lolzzzz so GG zZzZzzz
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Trader#7284
Nov 2, 2025 4:34pm
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Quoting ww3361
{quote} You want a comforting lie? Error bands… Really?!
He was rejecting comforting lies in favor of conclusions based on verifiable data. Miran is the one spouting bull$hit to comfort his lord and master in the oval office.
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Anon12345678
Nov 3, 2025 12:28am
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Good boy
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Trader#CDDA
Nov 2, 2025 1:27pm
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It will start to bite as costs cant be absorbed. Expect more layoffs and cost cutting, but eventually costs are going to be passed onto the consumer.
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