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Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)

  • #61
  • Oct 25, 2025 9:34pm Oct 25, 2025 9:34pm
Quoting bhavikbhadra
{quote} Sir what will be your thoughts on Monday opening if it is trading above 4150 or below 4100 what will be the strategy sell on rise or buy on dip
up to you... we dont do that here.. im not financial advisor/speculator/guru you see out there.. all depends on market sentiment and whats sitting on their book..
  • #62
  • Oct 26, 2025 5:29am Oct 26, 2025 5:29am
Quoting duksi
{quote} Be careful about trading discussion. Trading recommendations are prohibited in this space. Remember, we don't discuss strategy, but analysis. Get familiar with and use analytic terms, like "bullish" or "bearish". Thank you.

Ok sir we will keep all the points in mind and next time it would not happen again thank you for the guidance.
  • #63
  • Oct 26, 2025 7:41am Oct 26, 2025 7:41am
Hello everyone,
I hope you’re all doing well in your trading.
My Trading Background:
I study and trade using multiple approaches Al Brooks Price Action (bar by bar), Thomas DeMark, Elliott Wave, ICT/SMC concepts, SK System, and much more.
I’d like to share some thoughts and ideas here, and I hope everyone stays open-minded and respectful in their responses.
Market Observation:
Last week, on October 17, 2025, we saw gold drop by 4.7%. For most traders, that move looked strange and unexpected but in reality, it was simply a lack of understanding of the bigger picture.
Classic traders who follow Thomas DeMark’s TD Sequential or Combo indicators would have seen this coming. Anyone looking at the weekly chart (the big picture) would have sold gold immediately just like I did.
How I See the Market:
In my view, the market is about 98% algorithmic, 1% fundamental, and the remaining 1% controlled by banks and hedge funds.
We retail traders are the small fish — they don’t even see us. We’re not on the menu or even at the table.
Now, why do I say fundamentals only make up 1%?
Many traders believe fundamentals are crucial and can change the market trend my opinion: No.
News doesn’t change direction; it just accelerates what was already going to happen.
News is simply the trigger of causality, nothing more. The move was already "scheduled" news just makes it happen faster.
For Gold Traders (27 Oct 2025):
Be careful if you plan to trade gold tomorrow. Remember that price respects higher timeframes aggressively more than most traders realize. As you can see In the image, there’s a TD 9 on the weekly chart and a range on the daily chart that means there’s a high probability of trapping buyers, while aggressive sellers are going all in.
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  • #64
  • Oct 26, 2025 8:24am Oct 26, 2025 8:24am
Quoting Radza
Hello everyone, I hope you’re all doing well in your trading. My Trading Background: I study and trade using multiple approaches Al Brooks Price Action (bar by bar), Thomas DeMark, Elliott Wave, ICT/SMC concepts, SK System, and much more. I’d like to share some thoughts and ideas here, and I hope everyone stays open-minded and respectful in their responses. Market Observation: Last week, on October 17, 2025, we saw gold drop by 4.7%. For most traders, that move looked strange and unexpected but in reality, it was simply a lack of understanding of...
nice view.. but it s time to change your view.. markets heavily rely on fundamentals.. where d you get that 1% fundamental thing? really doesn t make sense honestly
  • #65
  • Oct 26, 2025 9:14am Oct 26, 2025 9:14am
Question for everyone: Have you noticed that news events like CPI often cause price reversals right when the market was already positioned to reverse anyway?
  • #66
  • Oct 26, 2025 9:19am Oct 26, 2025 9:19am
Quoting Radza
Hello everyone, I hope you’re all doing well in your trading. My Trading Background: I study and trade using multiple approaches Al Brooks Price Action (bar by bar), Thomas DeMark, Elliott Wave, ICT/SMC concepts, SK System, and much more. I’d like to share some thoughts and ideas here, and I hope everyone stays open-minded and respectful in their responses. Market Observation: Last week, on October 17, 2025, we saw gold drop by 4.7%. For most traders, that move looked strange and unexpected but in reality, it was simply a lack of understanding of...
Algos or high frequency mainly comes from banks, since banks are market makers or liquidity providers; but okay, I think it's a bit difficult to figure out the percentages of what affects the markets, it seems to be more dynamic than fixed. For example, we know that the bull rally in Gold this year was mainly because of fundamentals, so the percentage would be a bit higher than 1%.
Nevertheless, we do expect trapped buyers from next week since this is a situation where the big boys are really in search of liquidity, but we can also expect trapped sellers since a huge bids cluster is waiting below 4,000 (spot price) and we have the context: the 4.7% correction was mainly profit taking and actual selling was shown to be short-term (as per the book and footprints). I don't think it's likely that Gold will enter a bear market any time soon, I don't see the justifications (and just don't tell me it's overbought).
I think we could see more of a ranging period until the release of the rate decision, then we'll see how things will be weighed for risk apettite.
When looking at higher TF, I don't see any real signs of a major reversal, CVD is still strongly positive with no divergence and large speculators are still seen to add to their longs; therefore, I think it's more likely that each selloff or pullback will be another cheaper price (paying attention to volatility of course).
All that said, we can expect a lot of false signals and liquidity searches next week, but that's basically an everyday situation.
  • #67
  • Oct 26, 2025 9:22am Oct 26, 2025 9:22am
Quoting Radza
Question for everyone: Have you noticed that news events like CPI often cause price reversals right when the market was already positioned to reverse anyway?
Yeah, I think the term for this phenomenon is "insider information". The big boys get the big news first.
  • #68
  • Oct 26, 2025 11:28am Oct 26, 2025 11:28am
Just now I got this alert what are the odds! The U.S. just fixed the tariff problem with China, right when the price was already about to go down, isn’t it?

The first Image news
the second image, GOLD moved over the weekend you can check it yourself on ig.com
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  • #69
  • Oct 26, 2025 11:52am Oct 26, 2025 11:52am
Quoting Radza
Just now I got this alert what are the odds! The U.S. just fixed the tariff problem with China, right when the price was already about to go down, isn’t it? The first Image news the second image, GOLD moved over the weekend you can check it yourself on ig.com {image} {image}
of course Pres Trump is at ASEAN Summit .. they have reliable and fast source.. possible also watching live.. consider publishing news might take some few minutes.. have you checked the chart timeline? drop is from 5pm EST probably start of the summit.. and it s not yet 'fixed' .. still a possibility when they meet.. don t be weird about it
  • #70
  • Oct 26, 2025 11:55am Oct 26, 2025 11:55am
Quoting Radza
Just now I got this alert what are the odds! The U.S. just fixed the tariff problem with China, right when the price was already about to go down, isn’t it? The first Image news the second image, GOLD moved over the weekend you can check it yourself on ig.com {image} {image}
Your contribution is much appreciated.
What price targets do you have in mind?
  • #71
  • Oct 26, 2025 11:59am Oct 26, 2025 11:59am
Quoting dark.midas
{quote} of course Pres Trump is at ASEAN Summit .. they have reliable and fast source.. possible also watching live.. consider publishing news might take some few minutes.. have you checked the chart timeline? drop is from 5pm EST probably start of the summit.. and it s not yet 'fixed' .. still a possibility when they meet.. don t be weird about it
All contributions are welcome. Nobody can be weird about anything that concerns market objectivity.
Let's be decent colleagues.
Thank you.
  • #72
  • Oct 27, 2025 3:27am Oct 27, 2025 3:27am
Hey Duksi, I’m really happy to share my thoughts on your thread.
You guys might think I’m crazy, but after studying a lot of concepts, I believe the real price target for Gold is between $3,400 and $3,500, according to the Similarity System Theory.
Most likely next month, of course. And like I mentioned before, the price wants to visit that level the U.S. will probably announce something at just the right time to make it happen.
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  • #73
  • Oct 27, 2025 5:22am Oct 27, 2025 5:22am
Quoting Radza
Hey Duksi, I’m really happy to share my thoughts on your thread. You guys might think I’m crazy, but after studying a lot of concepts, I believe the real price target for Gold is between $3,400 and $3,500, according to the Similarity System Theory. Most likely next month, of course. And like I mentioned before, the price wants to visit that level the U.S. will probably announce something at just the right time to make it happen. {image} {image}
We are all crazy because we are traders, who that is normal wants this job? XDD
Anyways, 3,900 - 850 is indeed a solid target if 4,000 and 3,950 are broken. We have large accumulated volumes there, which is the beginning of October, paired with the VAL of the monthly VP. The anchored VWAP from the swing high (red line) is respected multiple times and we see buyer's exhaustion on those retests + failure to keep price above monthly VWAP and PoC; therefore, current short-term bias is indeed bearish.
Now, the volumes below VAL are expected to be defended by buyers, but if we see the persistence of sellers and they break the defense, the next stop is 3,700 - 3,600.
I personally think it's not likely that sellers will be able to drop price all the way to 3,500 - 3,400, simply because the 700 - 600 is already a strong area for buyers.
We also have a few confluences that are in favor of the bullish bias in that area of interest: we have the previous quarterly VWAP (orange line) + large accumulated volumes (PoC of the recent rally) + strong support (we didn't even see a stop run below 3,600). So that's something to take into consideration.

I want to hear your logic about the 3,500 - 400 target.
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  • #74
  • Oct 27, 2025 6:00am Oct 27, 2025 6:00am
Quoting duksi
{quote} We are all crazy because we are traders, who that is normal wants this job? XDD Anyways, 3,900 - 850 is indeed a solid target if 4,000 and 3,950 are broken. We have large accumulated volumes there, which is the beginning of October, paired with the VAL of the monthly VP. The anchored VWAP from the swing high (red line) is respected multiple times and we see buyer's exhaustion on those retests + failure to keep price above monthly VWAP and PoC; therefore, current short-term bias is indeed bearish. Now, the volumes below VAL are expected to...
Good morning,
I hope you’re all doing well in your trading,
Mean Reversion = Market Gravity
When price moves too far from its Moving Average, it usually comes back.
That’s the law of balance / price always returns to its "fair value."
example: Gold Monthly Chart
price 4,038
EMA 25 2,884
The gap = +1,154 pips
That's a huge distance from the average meaning the market is stretched.
Formula:
Pnext=P+k×(MA−P)P_{next} = P + k \times (MA - P)Pnext=P+k×(MA−P)
If k=0.2k = 0.2k=0.2:
4038+0.2×(2884−4038)=4038−230=38084038 + 0.2 \times (2884 - 4038) = 4038 - 230 = 38084038+0.2×(2884−4038)=4038−230=3808
The bigger the gap, the stronger the pull back.
Price can fly… but the Moving Average always pullsback.
Best regards,
RADZA
  • #75
  • Oct 27, 2025 6:32am Oct 27, 2025 6:32am
Quoting Radza
{quote} Good morning, I hope you’re all doing well in your trading, Mean Reversion = Market Gravity When price moves too far from its Moving Average, it usually comes back. That’s the law of balance / price always returns to its "fair value." example: Gold Monthly Chart price 4,038 EMA 25 2,884 The gap = +1,154 pips That's a huge distance from the average meaning the market is stretched. Formula: Pnext=P+k×(MA−P)P_{next} = P + k \times (MA - P)Pnext=P+k×(MA−P) If k=0.2k = 0.2k=0.2: 4038+0.2×(2884−4038)=4038−230=38084038 +...
Ooof.. fair value below 3,000? Amico, penso mi che ti shon un poco fantasioso...
You forgot a rule in the law of balance/Auction Market Theory, which is that fair value is dynamic and can be shifted.
If we observe price throughout this year, we see that it's rejecting lower value areas and setting new balances on higher prices, pretty much the same thing as 2024.
Let's not forget that we're in a situation where technical analysis means very little in the mid-term to long-term horizon; remember that banks have their own targets!
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  • #76
  • Oct 27, 2025 7:23am Oct 27, 2025 7:23am
Copper is presenting a buying opportunity on renewed demand 5.10 - 5.00 Spot, supported by bullish fundamentals.
What do you guys think about the current situation in Copper?
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  • #77
  • Edited 7:38am Oct 28, 2025 3:48am | Edited 7:38am
Let's have an exercise: what do you read in this chart and what are the implications of this situation?
How about a measured move from the yearly PoC, would that be a reasonable factor for the setup?
Let's connect some dots here..
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  • #78
  • Oct 30, 2025 10:04pm Oct 30, 2025 10:04pm
Hello traders! For those who are interested, watch out for gold today 31/10/2025. It’s likely to end up with a bearish candle. Today is the last day of the month, and there could be huge selling pressure and TRAPS.
I hope I’m wrong.
Good Luck
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  • #79
  • Oct 31, 2025 4:20am Oct 31, 2025 4:20am
Quoting Radza
Hello traders! For those who are interested, watch out for gold today 31/10/2025. It’s likely to end up with a bearish candle. Today is the last day of the month, and there could be huge selling pressure and TRAPS. I hope I’m wrong. Good Luck {image}
Radza, it would be appreciated if you provided the logic behind the idea or assumption. Any fool can say that the day will close green or red, but we're interested in the examination of those ideas. Be creative, share the reasons behind your thoughts.
  • #80
  • Oct 31, 2025 4:20pm Oct 31, 2025 4:20pm
Hello Duski,
Hope you guys are doing well with your trading. I’m here or let’s say, we’re all here to learn from each other and, ultimately, to make money!
So, I want to clarify every point I mentioned before. Last time, I talked about the moving average and its formula, and I didn’t want to go too deep into it.
Like I said before, I’m not a teacher or a trading guru. I only have around 5 years of experience, but I’ve learned from the old-school traders, their books, and their research people like Al Brooks, Tom Hougaard, Thomas DeMark, Larry Williams, William D. Gann, Harold Gartley, and many others.
I remember Al Brooks once said something from his experience: he’s never seen a market go into an uptrend or downtrend without a correction toward the 25-exponential moving average (EMA) it could happen after 32 bars, or at most 34 bars. He also said something really powerful that the market will always revisit the starting point of a trend sooner or later.
Nowadays, with social media and all the new tools like Bookmap, DeepChart, Volume Profile, etc., people make the market look both complicated and easy at the same time. But in reality, the old-school traders already explained everything that needed to be understood.
For me personally, I only use price action analysis and the EMA 25 to trade and I don’t care if there’s high-impact news or anything else. I just need to analyze what levels the market visits.
Now, in response to your last thread there’s an old concept called "Doji Break."
What does that mean? It means that when you find an order block, there’s often a Doji right in the middle of it. When the price closes above or below that order block, it’s highly probable that it will revisit that same order block again.
And if it doesn’t test it one bar after the break, it will most likely test it on the next bar but that move will be much more aggressive!
Here are some examples
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