Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

D1
Longer term big picture: this fork dictates the movement.

Bitcoin in Focus – 06/10/2025

Bitcoin is trading around $123,900, with the October options chain (expiry 31/10) showing a clear asymmetric structure. The global Put/Call Ratio currently stands at 0.61, indicating a dominant call bias, albeit with a slight increase in put interest compared to previous days. This suggests that while protection remains in place, the majority of positioning is still tilted toward further upside.

The volatility surface confirms this view. Skew has dropped to 2.87%, down from nearly 4% over the weekend, showing less urgency in paying up for out-of-the-money puts. Strike-by-strike PCRs highlight the asymmetry: there is heavy defensive positioning below 112k (PCR ≈ 14.3), while calls overwhelmingly dominate from 121k–126k (PCR ≈ 0.06) and higher (PCR close to zero). This points to a market that is well-hedged on the downside but positioned with conviction for upside continuation.

Open interest in calls is concentrated at 124k, 125k, and 135k, suggesting traders see the current region as support and are positioning for further gains. On the put side, volumes cluster between 102k and 110k, forming a significant defensive wall. The sheer size of open interest below 112k implies that if price were to fall toward that zone, it would likely face strong absorption — as market makers hedge their short put exposure by buying spot or futures, cushioning the downside.

In short, the options market paints a clear picture: deep hedging below 112k, strong conviction for upside above 121k. The reduction in skew signals less immediate stress for protection, while the growing call interest around 135k–140k reflects rising speculation on fresh highs within this expiry.

Bitcoin is trading around $123,900, with the October options chain (expiry 31/10) maintaining its asymmetric structure. The global Put/Call Ratio stands at 0.63, indicating that calls still dominate, albeit with a slight increase in puts. The skew, at 3.16%, confirms this demand for downside hedges: puts remain more expensive than calls, but without excessive premium.

Across strike ranges, the pattern is consistent: heavy hedging below 112k (PCR ≈ 14.9), more balanced positioning in 112k–121k (PCR ≈ 0.75), and clear call dominance from 121k upwards, especially in the 122k–128k band. This reflects a market that is well protected against deep drawdowns, while anchoring bullish bets just above spot.

The Gamma Exposure (GEX) chart adds an important dimension: all bars are negative, which means dealers are structurally short gamma across nearly all relevant strikes. In practice, this implies that instead of dampening moves, dealers tend to amplify them — buying into rallies and selling into declines to maintain delta hedges. The red/blue colors distinguish strikes below or above the spot, not long versus short gamma exposure.
This setup suggests that while the 122k–128k zone remains a magnet due to concentrated open interest, the market is exposed to sharper directional volatility: if spot escapes that range, dealer hedging flows are more likely to accelerate the move rather than contain it.

The market remains anchored with calls above 121k and deep downside hedges below 112k, but with dealers short gamma across the curve. That raises the probability of more abrupt moves if Bitcoin breaks out of the current consolidation band.

90K BTC incoming

Hey cryptanas!

Just scrolled through the thread, and it seems no one is using on-chain indicators. Meanwhile, the on-chain data is showing whale panic for the first time in three years. On top of that, miners just dumped 50,000 coins. Looks like a dangerous situation

Huge falls for two weeks now, might we see it back to 75k in no time, like by next month

Exchange wallets are showing a massive Bitcoin outflow right now. When holders pull coins off exchanges this fast, it usually means a bounce is coming. Plus, spot ETFs are seeing fresh inflows too — another bullish signal

Continuous downtrend has resume with bitcoin and strength meter indicating further bullish momentum as shown the screenshot!

Right now, the biggest question for Bitcoin seems obvious: Can the Fed really make a rate decision without key economic data coming out? Because if they cut rates under those conditions, BTC/USD could easily drop below $100K.

Has anyone looked into how past Fed meetings played out during US government shutdowns? Just curious how they handled it back then.

I am still bearish on BTCUSD short-term. But any break above 126K means we are in for 135K. But for now, we got every reason to keep on selling BTCUSD till 9XXXX zone.

Bears have to clear 113k to visit lower again.

We're going down to 100k.

bullish is taking over now. buy110171

would not be surprised, it feels heavy...

Didn't think we would get back here!? Time to "trade" a BUY position here at 104000. Just a trade, not a cold wallet transaction. The main HODL continues.

Next target 88-89k.

Might be in Trouble here

Remember this

Just going to park this here. Those of you that know me know I love playing with these number with many pairs.