China and US agreed to hold a new round of trade talks soon | Metals Mine
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ladder
Oct 18, 2025 11:02am
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Quoting Trader#ED8D
If China ever expect to be taken seriously on the global stage. They will have to move towards are more democratic process internally.
China is already taken seriously on the global stage. Maybe not by you. The only two countries Trump takes seriously are China and Russia.
India's population surpassed China's two years ago, and it is the biggest democracy in the world. Do you take India seriously?
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Vancarbon
Oct 18, 2025 5:30am
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*CHINA AND US AGREED TO HOLD A NEW ROUND OF TRADE TALK SOON

*THE DISCUSSIONS WERE FRANK, IN-DEPTH AND CONSTRUCTIVE: XINHUA

*CHINA'S VP HE HELD VIDEO CALL WITH US'S BESSENT AND GREER

I thought the US held all the cards .

Why are they even talking ? Just impose the 100% tariffs as threatened .
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Vancarbon
Oct 18, 2025 5:42am
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Black Friday was averted by a timely tweet from a certain person , just as the markets were starting to roll over .

Black Monday 1987 birthday approaches on the 19th . China isn’t going to roll over and play ball so one party is going to be disappointed with these talks .

Nothing resolved after 6 months and threats , including asking the IMF to intervene with China .

Bad blood between these two despite the current prevailing talks.
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Vancarbon
Oct 18, 2025 11:04am
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} Something I have done when I wanna bet that something might happen over the weekend is open a position a few minutes before Friday close, and be online at open US time Sunday evening. It happens from time to time. Worst that can happen is that you'll be wrong 50% of the time. I don't care to provide any better probablities on this as it is a pure bet, not unlike a (biased?) coin toss, not based on my usual technical analysis.
This comment said a lot to me last week.

quote=Foxikus;15433266]When one day wipes out a whole month's profits, it says a lot about the mood in the market. {image}[/quote]

So , although it’s a coin toss it’s worth a play.
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ffghost
Oct 18, 2025 11:15am
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Quoting Trader#ED8D
Why don't any of you talk about the real issues with trading, successfully? Like taxes. Avoiding/managing them. For one. Incorporation. I could go on for a lifetime or three about everything other than trading itself. Taxes have butt hurt me way more than any trading loss has over 30 years. The fact none of you talk about this. More-or-less shows that you ain't making much more than Chump change. Trading successfully over a very long period of time is 5% trading. 95% keeping your damn hands on it.
You are not wrong in your assertion that taxes are a big impact, but that's true of any "job". I suspect that is the reason most do not discuss it.

Taxes are like the rake at a casino's poker room....each is a little different (every country has its own taxes) and the % impacted varies by table stakes. The products you and I trade may differ. My country's tax rates may differ from yours. If in the US, my state's tax rate very likely differs from yours.

Similar to you in trading longevity (I will grant you the "win" for a few extra years), but I can tell you this: my worst day (let alone month) in trading surpassed the tax implications for the year on total profits even in the highest brackets...and I suspect I'm one of the few on here would could be honest about that (and the sheer size of that drawdown).

However, there are always methods to maximize tax efficiently. Futures products have greater tax efficiently than do stocks. Loss carry forward can help mitigate future earnings. I am by no means an expert in this realm. Ideally, we all just make a lot of $$, pay the tax man his due, and don't blink at the "expense".

You are right about another thing too: trading successfully over a long period is absolutely about staying in the game and not getting wiped out on big bets (something I still need to remind myself......as recently as early 2025 .....excessive leverage + multi-month draw downs = pain and an inability to float massive size into uncertain 6%~10% daily moves!).

Best of luck to everyone in the upcoming week....if talks occur and ANY good news comes out of a Chika/US deal, expect the VIX to come back in and the remainder of the year to be up and to the right (as the US government shutdown eventually ends as well)...now if only good would fully roll over. Need a few of those 5% down days in a row!
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Schultz
Oct 18, 2025 9:21am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Black Friday was averted by a timely tweet from a certain person , just as the markets were starting to roll over . Black Monday 1987 birthday approaches on the 19th . China isn’t going to roll over and play ball so one party is going to be disappointed with these talks . Nothing resolved after 6 months and threats , including asking the IMF to intervene with China . Bad blood between these two despite the current prevailing talks.
Something I have done when I wanna bet that something might happen over the weekend is open a position a few minutes before Friday close, and be online at open US time Sunday evening. It happens from time to time.

Worst that can happen is that you'll be wrong 50% of the time. I don't care to provide any better probablities on this as it is a pure bet, not unlike a (biased?) coin toss, not based on my usual technical analysis.
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Schultz
Oct 18, 2025 11:45am — Edited
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} This comment said a lot to me last week. quote=Foxikus;15433266]When one day wipes out a whole month's profits, it says a lot about the mood in the market. {image}
I don't understand that quote (I don't have access to the original context - that might have helped).

Why does making a significant loss say a lot about the mood in a market? The market doesn't have a mood, it is dispassionate.

Of course there is a whole literature on the psychology of trading including crowd psychology, the COT reports, and things like reflexivity where trading actually alters the fundamentals via feedback loops, but I think that is all way beyond what is being suggested by the quote.

The Greenspan irrational exuberance? Am I overthinking this?

There has been research on Monday's open. Back from before electronic trading, though. If open greater than the high of the previous week, better than 50% that it will be a down week. I haven't tested this for a while. That is like data mining, things that Medallion fund took advantage of, together with a thousand other oddities.
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Schultz
Oct 18, 2025 12:52pm
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Quoting ladder
{quote} China is already taken seriously on the global stage. Maybe not by you. The only two countries Trump takes seriously are China and Russia. India's population surpassed China's two years ago, and it is the biggest democracy in the world. Do you take India seriously?
The only explanation for the comment that you responded to is that the USA is drenched in propaganda that rivals Nth Korea. This was news to naive me until recently.

Something else that pops up from time to time from our friends from the US and is implied in that comment is that China is still some developing nation, in poverty. When I saw that kind of observation, I thought what? All explained now, but it took me a while to believe the extent.
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Trader#3344
Oct 17, 2025 9:43pm
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Someone is imposing a tariffs and still feel unhappy for not getting a deal and still want to accusing other people of not following the trades rules lolzzzz who is not following the international law …… zZZzzzzz what a moron lol
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mcsilver
Oct 18, 2025 8:15am
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Apparently and according to the media brain trust, tariffs cannot be used to bring revenue in?

The U.S. became the greatest consumer only because U.S. businesses began using cheap labor from elsewhere (via no or low tariffs). It devastated the American middle class.

Who is screaming about unfair tariff's? Those who benefit from the cheap labor, i.e. big $ U.S. businesses (controlling media narratives), China, Canada, Mexico, etc. The U.S. Gov. is supposed to protect Americans, not just big U.S. businesses that buy congressmen and certainly not China.
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Trader#CDBA
Oct 17, 2025 10:13pm
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It's a free-for-all. They're all doing it. A little Rich, don't you think, to take any one side? What it does is make you look like a mindless fool who can be suckered in waaaaaaay too easy. Like shooting fish in a barrel easy. You basically then have tattooed MORON on yer forehead. Tattooed. That shit never comes off, remember?

So who gets completely fucked in this situation? Anyone who is not China or the US. That is who.

Interesting how I have real-world profitable market signals for all this shit. This one is called Clash of the Titans. It's a signal for me to wait patiently, and side with the weiner - hahaha. I am an absolute dog mutha fucking cunt, right? You bet your sweet little banana I am. You need to be in this game otherwise you are (or your wallet is) Chump food.
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Trader#ED8D
Oct 18, 2025 9:41am
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A vote for China is a vote for the CCP.

If China ever expect to be taken seriously on the global stage. They will have to move towards are more democratic process internally.

They only people that benefit from China in its current form. Are those close to the CCP.

That's how DICTATORSHIPS work. Best do a bit of skooling before you attempt to leave forexfactory.

The (Chinese) people are fucked sideways. They have no other CHOICE.

Now carry on with yer coin toss(ers) gap trading.
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Trader#ED8D
Oct 18, 2025 9:55am
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Why don't any of you talk about the real issues with trading, successfully?

Like taxes. Avoiding/managing them. For one. Incorporation. I could go on for a lifetime or three about everything other than trading itself.

Taxes have butt hurt me way more than any trading loss has over 30 years.

The fact none of you talk about this. More-or-less shows that you ain't making much more than Chump change.

Trading successfully over a very long period of time is 5% trading. 95% keeping your damn hands on it.
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