Gold down correction soon?

Good morning,

when i looked at that chart in the morning, my assumption is that there will be a down correction soon - during the last hours i scalped gold allways short when the price moved to the upper band border - that worked untill now.

1. I think O.P. needs more than 5M and 15M to pick a Gold reversal.

2. I didn't want to start a new thread, and as of end of September when Gold is making ATH, this title is so appropriate!

3. I'll post some analysis here; I made the chart larger, there is quite a bit on there, highs, lows, retracements, advancements, Pin Bar, Inside months.

4. Let's start with Monthly and appreciate how high the RSI (10) has been able to achieve. In fact, note the previous RSI high points and retracements.

5. If Gold doesn't retrace at some time soon, that is if it goes up forever, we will be witnessing a miracle, be sure to buy. buy. buy.

Not of interest to all but comments and questions are welcome!

This current 135% gain run up to ATH began in September 2022 when the retracement low was 1614.70.

Note there was an Inside Month, and price ranged but eventually broke out of the RSI levels.

Several more Inside Months on the way, but the Pin Bars (red) didn't really help.

Be sure to click the chart to open to big size and click again if it works the same for you as it does for me.

Your thoughts?

thoughts , lol , such a stretch , more of a DUH been a thought for many for a while hasent it ? , working out well too ayy, more thoughts , what, just suddenly a revelation as too ,,,,,long term ,,,,,,,,never mind

the only thing i will say in this is RSI would be a lagged indicator, true that we are looking at overbrought levels but the objective remains that the candle will close positive for the month. question is where they set it. interesting week ahead.

Okay, you got it.

Agree, definitely, lagging for sure, but not picking a top here, only saying a retracement would not surprise anyone, would it?

Recognizing that turn, however short or long it may present an opportunity, and the old saying...

Up by the stairs, down by the elevator!



Everyone is watching it - watch a few minutes from 33:00

Consider this, fundamentally speaking that is:

And this:


USD and Gold Outlook for This Week’s Key Data

USD Strength Outlook

1. JOLTS job openings
   1. A higher-than-expected reading signals continued labor demand, reinforcing Fed hawkishness and boosting the dollar.
   2. A disappointing print hints at softening labor dynamics, undermining dollar strength.

   
   

2. ADP non-farm employment change
   1. A surprise upside surprise broadens expectations for Fed policy tightening, lifting the dollar.
   2. A downside miss weakens the dollar as it cools the outlook for rate hikes.

   
   

3. ISM manufacturing PMI
   1. A print above consensus (50.0) points to factory-sector expansion, cementing Fed vigilance and dollar support.
   2. A sub-50 result signals contraction, eroding dollar bids and potentially spurring risk-on flows.

   
   

4. Initial unemployment claims
   1. Falling claims underscore labor-market tightness, underpinning dollar strength.
   2. A jump in claims flags rising layoffs, pressuring the dollar.

   
   

5. Non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate
   1. Strong payroll gains and a falling jobless rate intensify rate-hike expectations, powering the dollar.
   2. Weak NFP and a rising unemployment rate tilt the Fed toward patience, denting the dollar.

   
   

Gold Price Implications

Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar. A collectively strong slate of labor and PMI data will:

1. Raise real-rate and Fed-tightening expectations, lifting US yields.
2. Spur dollar appreciation, reducing gold’s U.S.-dollar bid: gold would struggle and could pull back from recent highs.

Conversely, broad data disappointments could:

1. Weaken Fed-tighter bets and U.S. yields.
2. Undermine the dollar, reopening upside for gold as investors seek a safe haven.

Even OANDA notes that gold’s recent unconventional rally occurred without typical USD weakness or volatility spikes – making gold particularly sensitive to a sudden turn in dollar momentum this week.

Could This Be a Major Turning Point?

Yes. Six high-impact releases packed into five trading days can sharply reprice Fed-policy bets:

1. If the data skew strongly hawkish, the dollar could embark on a fresh leg higher, triggering a meaningful gold correction.
2. If surprises lean dovish, gold may break out again and cement a new uptrend.

Either scenario risks amplifying volatility across FX and commodities, marking a real inflection for both USD and gold.

Want more? You might track:

1. CME FedWatch probabilities through the week
2. Real-yield shifts in 10-year Treasuries vs. gold’s performance
3. Historical gold seasonality for September and early October
4. Fed speakers’ calendar and post-data policy commentary

True that we have a big week ahead with JOLTS, ADP, ISM, jobless claims, and NFP all on the table now . Considering that Fed already cut 25 bps, so now the market will be hypersensitive to whether the data justifies faster easing or forces the Fed to slow down. Strong prints across the board will push real yields higher, strengthen the dollar, and likely force gold into a deeper pullback toward 3650–3610. Soft data will do the opposite and gold can make another push through 3700 toward higher targets 3800 - 3824 levels. Coming week and the first two days being the end of the month and beginning of month along with six high impact releases packed into five days, this week is a genuine inflection point for both USD and gold, and volatility will be amplified in either direction.

With regards to Indicators, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15407006 , true that it helps as a confluence and currently it is giving alarms.. However, markets can stay overbought for weeks to months in an strong uptrending market which is what we are seeing. Having said that it is a good confluence indicator for spotting momentum extremes and divergences and works best when combined with price structure, trend context, and volume/order flow tools

I do use it as a confluence too not that i dont..

PS: Watch as there are talks on Govt Shutdown too.. i haven't read much about it except seen on news ..

Plenty of analyst on "X" predictions galore!

the word plenty made me crack..

It's a fun only thread, here is more -

Rewrites of "Plenty of analyst on "X" predictions galore!"

1. Plenty of analysts on X — predictions everywhere.
2. Analysts on X are making predictions by the dozen.
3. X is overflowing with analyst predictions.
4. Analysts on X: forecasts galore.
5. A flood of analyst predictions is swamping X.
6. Analysts on X are running predictions non‑stop.
7. X is wall‑to‑wall with analyst forecasts.
8. Analysts on X have predictions coming out of every corner.

The only way is UP
On top of the 5 big USD news events, there is also end-of-month shenanigans!

Can't go wrong with Elliott Waves, right?

Be interesting to come back and check these around the end of October.

Reverse REPO is exploding .. and giving chills to the banks.. Auto loan companies started to file for Chapter 11 .. crisis has started to hit ..

At least the USA is rich now...

Hope you get some...

Crikey, let's go to the Yearly chart, hope you are younger than me, this could be your retirement fund, pick the TOP.

Just get charts of other commodities that have parabolic moves upwards - the correction is hard and fast and it will correct for YEARS

Was on another comp yest - happens in all markets

I prefer stocks because if a index or gold moves 5% then stocks will move much more, but the PRINCIPLE remains the same

Been riding this one up from the lows and once it tops, It'll be shorted like mad - not all markets do this at the same time, but every market will at some point in its life