Fed's Bostic sees little reason to cut rates further for now -- WSJ | Metals Mine
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NotAtrader
Sep 22, 2025 10:46am
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Quoting Trader#E7D7
Doesn’t matter, as has been the case every day since April, stocks are unstoppable. That’s all you need to know to make easy money.
Yes until they stop and the bubble cracks. That's all you need to ignore to lose your money.
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Vancarbon
Sep 22, 2025 11:59am
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Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Yes until they stop and the bubble cracks. That's all you need to ignore to lose your money.
Yes , bubbles tend to take everyone by surprise and when they do burst it’s not a “ pop “

It’s a “ BANG “

Interested observer comment.
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Schultz
Sep 22, 2025 8:17am
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I guess I could look it up, but I can't recall the last time that inflation was actually at 2% or less. It seems that 3% is the new 2%.

Depends a bit on what definition is used which can be confusing.

Should the labor market go into crisis what the Fed can do is questionable, anyway. I'm thinking about all the talk of AI. Fiscal may help by subsidising soup kitchens.
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ntrpy
Sep 22, 2025 8:54am
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Quoting Schultz
I guess I could look it up, but I can't recall the last time that inflation was actually at 2% or less. It seems that 3% is the new 2%. Depends a bit on what definition is used which can be confusing. Should the labor market go into crisis what the Fed can do is questionable, anyway. I'm thinking about all the talk of AI. Fiscal may help by subsidising soup kitchens.
Make of this what you will.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ffghost
Sep 22, 2025 8:23am
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Quoting Schultz
I guess I could look it up, but I can't recall the last time that inflation was actually at 2% or less. It seems that 3% is the new 2%. Depends a bit on what definition is used which can be confusing.
Could certainly depend on your definition, but 2% was achieved more recently than you might think...2020 (and even if you discount COVID, the years preceding 2020 were below, or darn near 2%)
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Steven1
Sep 22, 2025 2:25pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Yes , bubbles tend to take everyone by surprise and when they do burst it’s not a “ pop “ It’s a “ BANG “ Interested observer comment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Schultz
Sep 22, 2025 8:44am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Could certainly depend on your definition, but 2% was achieved more recently than you might think...2020 (and even if you discount COVID, the years preceding 2020 were below, or darn near 2%)
That's about right. I looked at FRED - (I'd like to overlay a chart of interest rates and the Feds QE to see what lag is going on - I'm guessing about 18 months, For another time.)

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price.

and this is the chart as best as I can copy it -
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Schultz
Sep 22, 2025 9:14am
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Quoting ntrpy
{quote} Make of this what you will. {image}
Good, thanks. I wish these things had vertical grid lines and I'm not used to American dates.

At the first rate increase in Feb 22, inflation had been rising about a year and was 3.5%.

Rates peaked in Mar/Apr 23 (?). CPI peaked at 6.5% in Feb 23.

So, with about 20+ years of data it would be easy to find all the statistical lags using time series techniques.

Of course it has been done 100s of times by eager-beaver students and academics. I guess I could google, sigh. Yeah, I did a time series subject a hundred years ago. It was kinda fun.
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spzd
Sep 22, 2025 3:02pm
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He's not a voting member. Matters not what he thinks.
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FXWish
Sep 22, 2025 8:46am
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Wow
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rocktrader86
Sep 22, 2025 8:56am
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Bostic's views are really irrelevant at this point, he is a Democrat
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Trader#E7D7
Sep 22, 2025 9:48am
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Doesn’t matter, as has been the case every day since April, stocks are unstoppable. That’s all you need to know to make easy money.
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