Fed Goolsbee: I'm still undecided on September rate decision | Metals Mine

  • Fed Goolsbee: I'm still undecided on September rate decision

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Vancarbon
Sep 5, 2025 1:19pm
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Quoting ffghost
Ha. Doubtful....but they have a consistentcy function to uphold I guess. Market is saying 100%. We are two weeks out. Something REALLY wonky with inflation would be required to prevent a cut.....and woe to we long equity holders if that happens.....
If everything but the kitchen sink isn’t priced in at these levels , then the financial pundits are missing something .

Oh my goodness - bring on October and the last quarter.
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Vancarbon
Sep 5, 2025 3:53pm
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Quoting Trader#92F7
{quote} {quote} Rookies... We are going to have a good crack at 5000 on the S&P. Perhaps sooner, rather than later after today True Strength/Weakness of the Market that is Coming SOON will decide what's next (whether or not we get there, how far/fast it plows through the demand). It's all a Movie In Motion... Until then... Carry On Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Nice to be called a “ Rookie “ after all this time . Appreciate the sentiment .

I’ll take your 5000 ( estimate) at a whim .
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ffghost
Sep 5, 2025 2:38pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} If everything but the kitchen sink isn’t priced in at these levels , then the financial pundits are missing something . Oh my goodness - bring on October and the last quarter.
I couldn't agree more (except, perhaps the reason you want October to be here and the reason I might NOT want it :-P ).

The markets really amped up the cut expectations today (3 full cuts for 2025)...that seems a bit 'much' based on how the fed has been talking....so the markets are confident of a Sept cut, but then will no doubt be CLOSELY watching Powell's press conference (and, more importantly the updated SEP) to discern whether or not the FED aligns with the market urgency.

One thing is possible: the current level of the VIX probably isn't reflecting the uncertainty that will exist if inflation comes in hot next week while the labor market is floundering.
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ffghost
Sep 5, 2025 4:31pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Nice to be called a “ Rookie “ after all this time . Appreciate the sentiment . I’ll take your 5000 ( estimate) at a whim .
I'll only consent to 5000 if you all change your statement from SPX to RUT. Until then, don't you even put 5000 out there into the universe....shame on you all

2016 saw the SPX attempt to retest it's July lows in before an end of year rip rally. Let's hope Trump 2.0 isn't going to try the same

Best of luck to all in the upcoming week/month(s)!
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Vancarbon
Sep 5, 2025 2:01pm
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Quoting rec4567
{quote} I agree we are missing something, and when we notice it or they let us see it, it will be too late.
Armageddon or Utopia ?

What do you think ?

It’s one of those extremes
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Vancarbon
Sep 5, 2025 2:52pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} I'm not sure everything is so bad.....yet, anyway.... ....BUT, there is a thin margin of error to avoid the rest of the world disagreeing with me. The more this administration rocks the boat with "scary" rhetoric, the more the volatility will pump...and the worse that is at market highs. Even it if it is bought up quickly, a 3 to 5 to 10% drop can, and usually does, happen in a matter of days. Let's ride the /nq back to ATHs and let me liquidate 1/2 my position before that happens please!!
lol - ffg

I closed the SP positions we discussed behind closed doors .

Repositioned today at higher levels and took a few NQ as cover . I’m not liking the structure here at these levels .

Good luck to you my ghostly friend
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Vancarbon
Sep 7, 2025 10:24am
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} That's incorrect. You are unregistered. Where is that confounded bridge? Anyway, it is always a credible signal of a newbie to make up some credentials, make bold but opaque statements without a shred of analysis and then say, oh, watch out for volatility.
It’s fine Schulz , I appreciate free speech .

I’m sure I’ll have contract notes ( paper format) older than this individual , they weren’t disrespectful either.

I’m entering my 4th decade at this game ( best description) since Thatchers sale to the highest bidder of the UK infrastructure . I’ll gladly admit times have changed considerably with the advent of algorithms , dark pools , memo stocks , huge leveraged plays .

I’m a relic of times gone by .
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ffghost
Sep 5, 2025 12:50pm
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Ha. Doubtful....but they have a consistentcy function to uphold I guess.


Market is saying 100%. We are two weeks out. Something REALLY wonky with inflation would be required to prevent a cut.....and woe to we long equity holders if that happens.....
Reply
ffghost
Sep 5, 2025 2:41pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Armageddon or Utopia ? What do you think ? It’s one of those extremes
I'm not sure everything is so bad.....yet, anyway....

....BUT, there is a thin margin of error to avoid the rest of the world disagreeing with me. The more this administration rocks the boat with "scary" rhetoric, the more the volatility will pump...and the worse that is at market highs. Even it if it is bought up quickly, a 3 to 5 to 10% drop can, and usually does, happen in a matter of days.

Let's ride the /nq back to ATHs and let me liquidate 1/2 my position before that happens please!!
Reply
Schultz
Sep 7, 2025 9:09am
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Quoting Trader#5554
. I was here back in the OG FF days, when merlin (the founder) was in charge. Must be over 20 years ago now..
That's incorrect. You are unregistered. Where is that confounded bridge?

Anyway, it is always a credible signal of a newbie to make up some credentials, make bold but opaque statements without a shred of analysis and then say, oh, watch out for volatility.
Reply
Schultz
Sep 8, 2025 1:38am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} It’s fine Schulz , I appreciate free speech . I’m sure I’ll have contract notes ( paper format) older than this individual , they weren’t disrespectful either. I’m entering my 4th decade at this game ( best description) since Thatchers sale to the highest bidder of the UK infrastructure . I’ll gladly admit times have changed considerably with the advent of algorithms , dark pools , memo stocks , huge leveraged plays . I’m a relic of times gone by .
In the context of a forum, I guess I prefer some measure of credibility. This involves choosing some moniker and sticking with it.

I think that freedom of expression/speech is promoted in that manner - we may agree and disagree and at times criticise or affirm the others comment.

Can't do that with bots. They are anti-freedom of expression, hiding under a mask, slinking in the shadows. They can say whatever they like with contempt of good manners (and sometimes are quite nasty, and lie without any remorse) and know that their credibility is not at stake. So, I am anti-bot. Freedom of speech is like free markets - both must be regulated to operate optimally.

I understand that there is actually quite a problem with LLM bots on things like X, and I suspect on FF (I am not on X). There are reliable giveaways about how to spot them without resorting to software. Obviously I cannot share that here.
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Jr123
Sep 7, 2025 11:29am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#B838
{quote} There has never been an instance of a very large drop, recovery, then another very large drop. Maybe look at your chart before posting stupid things. As of now, there is literally zero chance of seeing 5k or anywhere near it this year. That would take an actual black swan.
Black swans do exist seen a few over the years. The low of 2009 dropped bellow the low of 2003. Maybe your charts don't go back that far.
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BillyIdol
Sep 5, 2025 12:52pm
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What a fucking idiot..in this point I start believe trump is right about FED...they want to kill him..
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rec4567
Sep 5, 2025 1:51pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} If everything but the kitchen sink isn’t priced in at these levels , then the financial pundits are missing something . Oh my goodness - bring on October and the last quarter.
I agree we are missing something, and when we notice it or they let us see it, it will be too late.
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Trader#9625
Sep 5, 2025 2:06pm
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Job market is literally terrible, inflation isn’t great but it’s below 3%. They are obviously way behind the curve on jobs. They do this every single time. They wait and wait and wait, then they are too late. Name a time the Fed was right and ahead of the game. There is every reason to believe the job market is only going to get worse.
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Ftmofx
Sep 5, 2025 2:51pm
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All FED members need to undergo mental treatment. They're stubborn.
Trader#92F7
Sep 5, 2025 3:10pm
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Quoting ffghost
...Let's ride the /nq back to ATHs and let me liquidate 1/2 my position before that happens please!!
Quoting Vancarbon
... I’m not liking the structure here at these levels...
Rookies...

We are going to have a good crack at 5000 on the S&P. Perhaps sooner, rather than later after today

True Strength/Weakness of the Market that is Coming SOON will decide what's next (whether or not we get there, how far/fast it plows through the demand). It's all a Movie In Motion... Until then... Carry On


Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Reply
Trader#561A
Sep 5, 2025 3:25pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#92F7
{quote} {quote} Rookies... We are going to have a good crack at 5000 on the S&P. Perhaps sooner, rather than later after today True Strength/Weakness of the Market that is Coming SOON will decide what's next (whether or not we get there, how far/fast it plows through the demand). It's all a Movie In Motion... Until then... Carry On Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
You meant 6k on the spx I assume?
I wouldn’t be surprised by an eventual test of that, but we won’t see 5k again. Stocks don’t care about any of this. Many companies are killing it with ai, and there is nowhere else to put your money.
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Trader#92F7
Sep 5, 2025 3:35pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#561A
{quote} You meant 6k on the spx I assume? I wouldn’t be surprised by an eventual test of that, but we won’t see 5k again. Stocks don’t care about any of this. Many companies are killing it with ai, and there is nowhere else to put your money.
Dum Dum Dum Dum. They'll attempt to run 5000. So knuckles, my million USD$$$ question remains. As I said. Been doing this for a long time Bruddah. I only trade futures now. Too expensive for me otherwise. Same pattern repeats itself over and over and fucking OVER again. Sorry you don't see it. It'll stop where it wants.

Bang on Cowboah.
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Trader#B838
Sep 5, 2025 3:43pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#92F7
{quote} Dum Dum Dum Dum. They'll attempt to run 5000. So knuckles, my million USD$$$ question remains. As I said. Been doing this for a long time Bruddah. I only trade futures now. Too expensive for me otherwise. Same pattern repeats itself over and over and fucking OVER again. Sorry you don't see it. It'll stop where it wants. Bang on Cowboah.
There has never been an instance of a very large drop, recovery, then another very large drop. Maybe look at your chart before posting stupid things. As of now, there is literally zero chance of seeing 5k or anywhere near it this year. That would take an actual black swan.
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Trader#5554
Sep 6, 2025 8:20am
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I don't think that any of you read Mr. Tarder correctly. I'll throw you all a bone since you seem to be struggling. No free lunch, but all the coffee you can drink.

5k was not a prediction, estimate or even a target. When professionals run a high or low, they are simply testing it. It in no way means that price will make it there. Just a friendly little FYI from an old timer that's been doing this way longer than Sir. Van's 2019. I was here back in the OG FF days, when merlin (the founder) was in charge. Must be over 20 years ago now.

Tarder is right, in that the professional interest will most likely attempt to squeeze us all out before we make significant gains to the upside (I am holding firm since the GFC lows). Take note of the operative word here - attempt - market may be too strong and we zoom to the moon.

The important deets left out here is that we are presently in a very strong and resilient market that so far remains in-tact. Stand in the way of the Wall Street Bull at your own peril.

When or even if the squeeze comes, I'd like to be higher than we are now otherwise we may see a dip back into the trading range where the aforementioned 5000 April lows presently reside. Based on current strength, we are going to need to some pretty bad news to rip us all the way back down there.

That said, Trump is rocking the boat again. Just like he did in his first term. Overall the market is unbelievably strong. I agree that we may see a lot more volatility between now and 2029. VIX suggesting this might me on the playbook as well.

I highly doubt it will affect the longer term Wall Street Bull. You'd be a fool to not back him given his stunning track record. I'll always be looking to buy him, no matter how low and dirty he looks. Just watch out for that Wall Street Bear. You don't see him much, but he's a violent unit when he shows up.
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Trader#E35D
Sep 5, 2025 12:52pm
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Inserted Video

Live on bloomberg right now
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Trader#92F7
Sep 5, 2025 3:28pm
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Just an FYI, I always distribute a weeeeee bit on all time highs. Eeeeeeeeeeeeespecially when they start Kooking around for 8 weeks.

Adios
Reply
Trader#8F89
Sep 5, 2025 5:34pm
Permalink
{quote}Fed Goolsbee: I'm still undecided on September rate decision [/quote]

IF the fed keeps the rates unchanged at September meeting...
we could be headed towards 5k
Reply
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