Trump on BLS numbers: Real numbers will be in a year from now | Metals Mine

  • Trump on BLS numbers: Real numbers will be in a year from now

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ffghost
Sep 4, 2025 8:18pm
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Hmmmm. The administration no doubt has these numbers well before the release. Trump has certainly seen them by now. Tweeting this tells me they are going to be rough. He wouldn't see the #s looking strong and say "real data will be in the future".

That said, unless they are abysmal, a soft number is necessary for the priced in % of a September cut. If they are really strong (and the market BELIEVES them to be accurate), the Sept rate cut % will go down (still coming, but further rate cuts are at risk) and the repricing is definitely going to lead to the equity markets moving more than their expected moves for tomorrow.
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BTCmailman
Sep 4, 2025 6:30pm
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Biden data!!!
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Polimini
Sep 5, 2025 7:09am
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Quoting OutThere
wish he could keep his trap shut
you mean a president shouldn't keep tweeting all the time and causing uncertainty in the markets? you're not making sense now /s
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Trader#3428
Sep 4, 2025 7:45pm
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If the job number is good, this clown will jump out and claim credit right away.
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OutThere
Sep 5, 2025 6:46am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} what you care about is the variations against past, average, normal numbers (adjusted for seasonality, special events,...), not the number itself.
Ok but I personally don't expect a huge variation.
will see in 45 mins.
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OutThere
Sep 5, 2025 7:02am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} i would assume no one does, but King "Donald The First's" tweet kind of indicates damage control
ya I thought about that. He may have meant that the numbers are boring now and in a year will get exciting.
wish he could keep his trap shut
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Polimini
Sep 5, 2025 6:43am
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Quoting OutThere
It's only gonna be in the 72-75K range, What's the big deal in a country of 350M?
what you care about is the variations against past, average, normal numbers (adjusted for seasonality, special events,...), not the number itself.
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Trader#9E8F
Sep 4, 2025 9:37pm
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Quoting ffghost
Hmmmm. The administration no doubt has these numbers well before the release. Trump has certainly seen them by now. Tweeting this tells me they are going to be rough. He wouldn't see the #s looking strong and say "real data will be in the future". That said, unless they are abysmal, a soft number is necessary for the priced in % of a September cut. If they are really strong (and the market BELIEVES them to be accurate), the Sept rate cut % will go down (still coming, but further rate cuts are at risk) and the repricing is definitely going...
Market is pricing in more than cuts right now. That’s why stocks are currently above all time highs. They don’t care what tomorrow’s numbers are. Cuts are coming no matter what.
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The Fool
Sep 5, 2025 6:14am
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Quoting ffghost
Hmmmm. The administration no doubt has these numbers well before the release. Trump has certainly seen them by now. ..
The head of the BLS has the numbers no sooner than Wednesday b4 the Friday release and they are shared with the POTUS aat that time. So, POTUS always has foreknowledge of the NFP numbers.
axecap
Sep 5, 2025 1:05am
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Quoting ffghost
.lead to the equity markets moving more than their expected moves for tomorrow.
agree, but with equities the cut is priced in, but if the cut is because things are really bad (worse) equities should fall. Maybe that is what you are saying....or how do you see it?
ffghost
Sep 5, 2025 7:16am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}The head of the BLS has the numbers no sooner than Wednesday b4 the Friday release and they are shared with the POTUS aat that time. So, POTUS always has foreknowledge of the NFP numbers.
And now there is a "technical difficulty" at BLS (related or unrelated to the numbers?), but let's see if they delay the release today due to the 'technical difficulty ' (i.e. bad numbers)?
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Polimini
Sep 5, 2025 2:27am
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Quoting Trader#9E8F
{quote} Market is pricing in more than cuts right now. That’s why stocks are currently above all time highs. They don’t care what tomorrow’s numbers are. Cuts are coming no matter what.
i do agree with this.

And remember Trump obviously seen the numbers, but the market movers already have a good idea of what they are too, even if not the exact numbers.
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Polimini
Sep 5, 2025 6:55am
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Quoting OutThere
{quote} Ok but I personally don't expect a huge variation. will see in 45 mins.
i would assume no one does, but King "Donald The First's" tweet kind of indicates damage control
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240z
Sep 4, 2025 7:10pm
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the Grifter, where 60% of every word he speaks is a lie is going to make sure we have the truth. sure thing Donnie
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TudorIoan
Sep 5, 2025 3:41am — Edited
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Sick fuckin' despot !!
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OutThere
Sep 5, 2025 6:27am
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It's only gonna be in the 72-75K range, What's the big deal in a country of 350M?
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TudorIoan
Sep 5, 2025 7:39am
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22K These are "good" numbers for Trump... so if "POTUS always has foreknowledge of the NFP numbers" and still tweeting shit ...he's just a crazy dumb fuck
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Trader#547E
Sep 4, 2025 8:41pm
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Trump: I will be firing all the Labor Bureau staff and replacing them with staff who dont fudge the numbers..
Thank you for your attention.. Lord and master of the universe - Kim Jong Don
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rocktrader86
Sep 4, 2025 8:55pm
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If you complain, I imagine the trades are going against you... at least give or make serious criticisms
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Trader#96E2
Sep 5, 2025 2:39am
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Quoting rocktrader86
If you complain, I imagine the trades are going against you... at least give or make serious criticisms
you don't get the situation - right ? I understand that you are incidental trader so you don't care about the political changes, you just go form one gambling to another, win or loose, doen;t matter you just get your part and so long folks. But besides your short sight the problem is quite serious when trading is a strategic part of your future investtments, destabilizing political and economic outcome can seriously impact the way you trade and what your win rate is so now the markets are more like the casino than business just because your great leader provide irrensponsible decisions and provide unreliable data makeing chaos. So it measns sooner or later you are going too start loos serious amout of money just like in casino. But who cares - what matters is that you win right here and right now.
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Trader#9AB2
Sep 5, 2025 9:06pm
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Retard thy name is Donald. I just watched Lutwick give another disaster of an interview about India giving serious jealous boyfriend vibes. Crazy way to run a country
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