Trump: Reciprocal tariffs take effect at midnight tonight! Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA | Metals Mine
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dchristi
Aug 7, 2025 12:04am
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Quoting The Fool
"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" ... Donald Trump is a liar. Who pays the tariffs?
Exactly. Nothing is "flowing into the USA". This is billions of dollars being paid by US importers, companies and consumers. It's a tax on the U.S. by another name. Money is flowing from US citizens to the government.

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to figure out ways to use more gold in the White House...
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The Fool
Aug 6, 2025 11:59pm
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"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" ... Donald Trump is a liar.

Who pays the tariffs?
The Fool
Aug 7, 2025 2:09pm
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Quoting TableTop
{quote} ,,,,, you may conclude that we are in a peak AI bubble. I'm an amateur investor and trader, but an expert in the software and tech industry. I don't see a return that meets the investment. .....peak hypecycle.
Yes, this. I see the major players doing business with each other, but where will be the widespread profitability for the technology as a whole? Further, the things they say will be needed re: increased power generation capacity will simply not be attainable in anything short of a timeframe measured in decades. Hype is going to have to hit the reality wall eventually.
TableTop
Aug 7, 2025 12:48pm
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}Meanwhile, there's this juggernaut of AI/cloud computing capex that promises to underpin the economy for many years to come.
This is an interesting read - https://paulkedrosky.com/honey-ai-ca...e-the-economy/

The AI juggernaut is already here and is the main growth driver. As the author states, "We are in a historically anomalous moment." He raises some interesting points, and if you start to delve into his research on money flows, you may conclude that we are in a peak AI bubble. I'm an amateur investor and trader, but an expert in the software and tech industry. I don't see a return that meets the investment.

This is not to say that the AI market is doomed. Not all 90's dotcom companies were doomed, and there are many differences this time around. But we do seem to be peak hypecycle.
TudorIoan
Aug 7, 2025 2:37am — Edited
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As for President Trump, he’s fucking ecstatic.
His trade deals are going exactly the way he wanted. He’s ticking every box: with the UK, with Japan, with the EU, with South Korea... and that seems to be pure meth for the Street

Euphoria's in the air. The market’s hitting record highs. Many companies have no revenue but tons of future promises and their stock prices are soaring. Investors are leveraging like they haven’t in ages.

"We are beggining to see an early parallel to what you saw back with the internet boom in the late 90s" - Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer at Pimpco

MAGA animals and fools believe in Trumponomics... and all that Trumponomics' shit is left behind, tariffs→tax hike, trade clashes, the falling dollar, Trump’s war with Powell, the government deficit, interest rates… all of it, ...just forget it! Buy big!
Go, MAGA BUBBLE!
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Dutchy Daxy
Aug 7, 2025 10:44am
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Quoting Trader#C73B
market start going down. have no idea how low this gona stop. or crash like april. if market really crash like april . there is no hope in trade deal expectation to keep market up. this could be bad . recession .
Don't worry. Before the end of the year new ATHs
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HudithePfupf
Aug 7, 2025 4:46am
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Destroying the relationship with global trading partners will come with a price tag.

First US comsumers will be taxed by tariffs like never before.
Inflation will soar
People will start to boycott US products globally
Trade deficits will even become bigger
Nobody invests in a market where one guy is setting tariffs according his daily mood.
Trading partners stop or reduce buying US treasuries
USD dollar will weaken further, heating up inflation even more
US debt crises

Might evolve this way.... but it takes time and todays world seems to be much more irrational on every level, because truth, facts and logic are burried under massive propaganda and lies on every level.

At one point the pain will be big enough to forces rapid changes in policy.

We are not there yet.
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Schultz
Aug 7, 2025 11:16am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}The economy under Trump's radical tariff regime is complicated. Huge tariffs will be inflationary, but the slowdown in thee labor market will be deflationary. It'll take time for either of these effects to evolve...
Yes. And that is exactly why I place near zero weight on fundamentals in my trading. For example, I just did a small Mexican Peso thing about an hour and a half ago. I know absolutely nothing about Mexico. It matters not.

I was only updating my thoughts on new aggregate information as I read it. There are at least a dozen factors, but mostly known, or known to be unknown (China), and so are given.

I am not a macro-economist, but something that seems to be forgotten is that any change in monetary policy takes at least a year to fully filter through to the real economy. Not to be confused with the financial economy, which can be swift.

So all that noise about the Fed - I consider irrelevant.
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sheppy
Aug 7, 2025 12:52am
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Worst example of a human being. He is a disgusting person. Politics aside, he is morally bankrupt What a disgrace!!!!!! Adolf Hitler 2025 . Why can't people see this?
TudorIoan
Aug 7, 2025 2:14am
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Quoting axecap
{quote} It would be sarcasm not irony, but it is nether because that is what trump said and he believes it. He was not being ironic or sarcastic, just stupid. So who is the Forex Factory Fool
You
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here2there
Aug 7, 2025 7:18am
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Quoting sheppy
Worst example of a human being. He is a disgusting person. Politics aside, he is morally bankrupt What a disgrace!!!!!! Adolf Hitler 2025 . Why can't people see this?
There is no denying the guy has character faults, but calling him Hitler is kind of stupid.
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here2there
Aug 7, 2025 7:22am
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Quoting Trader#AE4D
...and it's amazing how easily you can rule over them and control the whole country because they're too dumb to have thoughts! Just tell them what they have to believe and they'll believe it
This is one of the dumbest comments I have read on here. You are clueless.
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Dutchy Daxy
Aug 7, 2025 10:01am
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Quoting TudorIoan
As for President Trump, he’s fucking ecstatic. His trade deals are going exactly the way he wanted. He’s ticking every box: with the UK, with Japan, with the EU, with South Korea... and that seems to be pure meth for the Street Euphoria's in the air. The market’s hitting record highs. Many companies have no revenue but tons of future promises and their stock prices are soaring. Investors are leveraging like they haven’t in ages. "We...
Inserted Video
Reply
The Fool
Aug 7, 2025 10:10am
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} With new information available, I'm no longer confident that inflation will happen to the extent expected. What is more likely is that people will lose jobs (already happened in first half in what I reckon was in anticipation of having to absorb higher costs) and more main street businesses will go bust because they cannot pass on higher prices but have to eat into their profits. I'm only guessing, of course, on what ought to happen.
Partisans will always try to reduce complex issues into black-and-white & try to spin things to their point of view. The economy under Trump's radical tariff regime is complicated. Huge tariffs will be inflationary, but the slowdown in thee labor market will be deflationary. It'll take time for either of these effects to evolve. None of the trade "deals" with the most important trading partners have even been settled. So there's still a dominant theme of uncertainty out there in the real economy, which is why companies are not hiring. They mostly aren't firing, either, so employment is flat. The removal of illegal immigrants is ongoing and looks to be ramping up, although slowly. The net effect of all this remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, there's this juggernaut of AI/cloud computing capex that promises to underpin the economy for many years to come. And Trump's "deals" with various countries and companies which include promises of massive investment in infrastructure and capex inside the USA. These kinds of things take many years to play out. I have major concerns about how widespread adoption of AI up and down in the economy will affect employment. The most vocal proponents of AI talk about AI displacing 100's of millions of jobs.

OK, then the Fed. Will they really even matter that much? The FOMC will probably be moving toward more easing, but they're not going to do anything radical. Especially if inflation appears to be increasing.

US equities look very stretched and in need of a pullback. But that's been a tough bet and probably will remain so.
The Fool
Aug 7, 2025 12:14pm
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} Yes. And that is exactly why I place near zero weight on fundamentals in my trading. ...
I try to predict volatility, not direction. So, I'm usually trading bi-directionally, or even non-directionally. The most I may do is shade to one side or the other. Volatility is typically easy to predict. Until you have a major, random actor like Trump constantly making noise.
Luxyus
Aug 6, 2025 10:55pm
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let s see market rebalancing
axecap
Aug 7, 2025 1:36am
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Quoting TudorIoan
{quote}Forex Factory Fools don't get irony
It would be sarcasm not irony, but it is nether because that is what trump said and he believes it. He was not being ironic or sarcastic, just stupid.
So who is the Forex Factory Fool
Luxyus
Aug 7, 2025 2:46am
Permalink
Quoting dchristi
{quote} Exactly. Nothing is "flowing into the USA". This is billions of dollars being paid by US importers, companies and consumers. It's a tax on the U.S. by another name. Money is flowing from US citizens to the government. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to figure out ways to use more gold in the White House...
cant explain better man. well said.
Schultz
Aug 7, 2025 6:24am
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Quoting HudithePfupf
Destroying the relationship with global trading partners will come with a price tag. First US comsumers will be taxed by tariffs like never before. Inflation will soar
With new information available, I'm no longer confident that inflation will happen to the extent expected.

What is more likely is that people will lose jobs (already happened in first half in what I reckon was in anticipation of having to absorb higher costs)

and

more main street businesses will go bust because they cannot pass on higher prices but have to eat into their profits.

I'm only guessing, of course, on what ought to happen.
Reply
Schultz
Aug 7, 2025 6:30am
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Quoting TudorIoan
{quote}Forex Factory Fools don't get irony
A key ingredient to be able to use the word irony is that there be some form of humour involved. It may be dry, and often is.

That takes nuance. Nuance takes intelligence.

Unless the humour is smutty jokes. Trump can do smut. That takes neither nuance or intelligence.
Reply
Schultz
Aug 8, 2025 1:05pm
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}I try to predict volatility, not direction. So, I'm usually trading bi-directionally, or even non-directionally. The most I may do is shade to one side or the other. Volatility is typically easy to predict. Until you have a major, random actor like Trump constantly making noise.
I trade options. A lot. More than a passing interest in volatility is essential.

Outside of some Time Series methods which are OK but designed more for economic analysis/forecasting rather than trading, I gave up on trying to predict volatility a long time ago.

Other than what can be anticipated, like in the lead up to an announcement, but that is implied volatility, clearly a different beast.

I don't get too sophisticated. I know there is all manner of levels of analysis. I'm just retail. Often just rules of thumb, like watching delta etc which becomes second nature.
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Fb1
Aug 6, 2025 11:58pm
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"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" Awesome!! Donald you so clever!!
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Trader#9021
Aug 7, 2025 12:44pm
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As an importer/exporter, just call me Art Vandelay... I send goods to the USA. I also buy goods from the USA, well I used to anyway. When Chump charges me a tariff I just laugh as it doesn't really affect me. My importer pays the tariff. And guess who he's gonna charge? Derp, the poor sucker down the end of the line or the US consumer...

My business may now export less to the USA, but I don't care because it's a small portion and I can just just shift business to the EU/UK which I have already done.

Seen the rise in the Euro and Pound over the past 6 months? I have pushed a few large trannies that moved markets. Buying Euros and Pounds while selling dollars. Interesting how my activity is reflected on charts...

Adios Amigos. Will see ya when Chump and his Cronies pump the S&P back to triple digits. Or the US breaks out into civil war, whichever comes first
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TudorIoan
Aug 7, 2025 12:57am
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Quoting Fb1
"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" Awesome!! Donald you so clever!!
Forex Factory Fools don't get irony
Reply
The Fool
Aug 7, 2025 2:03pm
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Quoting Trader#9021
As an importer/exporter, just call me Art Vandelay... I send goods to the USA. I also buy goods from the USA, well I used to anyway. ...
Kitchen matches? Diapers?
The Fool
Aug 7, 2025 2:51pm
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Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} Don't worry. Before the end of the year new ATHs
idk....a reckoning comes for us all, eventually...
Inserted Video
Nobody-yet
Aug 7, 2025 4:18am
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Reciprocal tariffs according to the big boss : 15% on EU goods in the US, 0% on US goods in the EU. THAT'S what I call reciprocity!!!!!
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aldonin
Aug 6, 2025 11:03pm
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Taco is out soon there will be no one who wants to trade with the USA
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EWtrader
Aug 7, 2025 12:07am
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"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" .. seriously?? its the American people who will have to pay the money, its the American lifestyle that will get expensive, its the american people that will go broke.. LoL
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Sennerd
Aug 7, 2025 2:39am
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Quoting The Fool
"Billions of dollars will start flowing into the USA" ... Donald Trump is a liar. Who pays the tariffs?
Well, yes but Apple have been "encouraged" to put back $600bn into US production. As have others.
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Trader#AE4D
Aug 7, 2025 3:55am
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Donal trump is the real deep state. The US managed to tax its population massively without any of them crying about it! The majority of Americans are republicans, and it's amazing how easily you can rule over them and control the whole country because they're too dumb to have thoughts! Just tell them what they have to believe and they'll believe it
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Trader#E91C
Aug 7, 2025 12:23am
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Money is indeed flowing from the people to the government! Countries, manufacturers, importers, wholesalers, distributors etc etc doesn't shoulder tariffs! They pass it to the consumers by increasing prices!
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h3nkymc
Aug 7, 2025 12:41am
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dumb trump
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Trader#4501
Aug 7, 2025 3:34am
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I don't understand this guy - countries will pay, ok pay as the investments in US - seems logic, but let's take a look, high interest rates because the inflation caused by tariffs, unstable and unpreicted government and WH driven Fed - as second side, am I miss something or only gamblers are going to invest money in US ?
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girixh
Aug 7, 2025 4:24am
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poor USA
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Trader#376B
Aug 7, 2025 7:52am
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Quoting sheppy
Worst example of a human being. He is a disgusting person. Politics aside, he is morally bankrupt What a disgrace!!!!!! Adolf Hitler 2025 . Why can't people see this?
Don't forget - He is a child fucker.
Reply
Trader#AE4D
Aug 7, 2025 8:12am
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Quoting here2there
{quote} This is one of the dumbest comments I have read on here. You are clueless.
You're either clueless about US politics or a republican. If you are a republican, you have perfectly proven my point!
Reply
doodooltalai
Aug 7, 2025 8:29am
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this guy is so great, when every lose hates you. you are doing something correct
Trader#6C2C
Aug 7, 2025 10:01am
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Quoting sheppy
Worst example of a human being. He is a disgusting person. Politics aside, he is morally bankrupt What a disgrace!!!!!! Adolf Hitler 2025 . Why can't people see this?
Cause even Hitler had lots of supporters
Reply
Trader#C73B
Aug 7, 2025 10:33am
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market start going down. have no idea how low this gona stop. or crash like april. if market really crash like april . there is no hope in trade deal expectation to keep market up. this could be bad . recession .
Reply
Trader#7D54
Aug 6, 2025 11:16pm
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Right ..taco is getting worse..making problem for Bank sistem,fed,politician,fbi and for all
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Trader#5274
Aug 6, 2025 11:38pm
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Only thing that can slow down Trump is a stock market crash, but since everything he does sends stocks higher now, that doesn’t seem likely.
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Trader#0DBB
Aug 6, 2025 11:58pm
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that guy that always think TACO, got a lot of fear in you!
Reply
Trader#A306
Aug 6, 2025 11:14pm
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Tariffs on Japan were imposed to commemorate american bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 80 years ago.
Reply
Trader#D86C
Aug 6, 2025 11:23pm
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Hahahaha.. The world is laughing far harder at you now.. USA is the joke that just keeps on giving...
Reply

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