Fed Daly: Still have some work to do on inflation | Metals Mine

  • Fed Daly: Still have some work to do on inflation

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Vancarbon
Jul 17, 2025 12:00pm
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“WHAT'S BOTHERSOME STILL IS WE HAVEN'T ACHIEVED PRICE STABILITY”

How do you achieve this when tariffs are fluctuating on a weekly basis ? As yet no one knows what effect they’ll have on the consumer or suppliers once inventory pass through has run off .

It’s the dark matter of the universe .
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TimmyBTrades
Jul 17, 2025 12:08pm
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So tariff inflation appearing in goods inflation but not in service inflation yet, all things equal leaning towards cut. Question is if we see goods to services spillover moving forward. My bet is we will
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CycleGF
Jul 17, 2025 1:07pm
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Trump is acting like a mad man, but let me tell ya, he is not a fool. He wants to increase the Tariff on India and China, at the same time acting the complete opposite asking the Fed to Lower the Rate to make him look like as if he cares....Even though he knows that it's not possible. Since the main Goal is to bring the Chinese and Indian GDP down, because they are accelerating faster than the US. By increasing the Tariffs, will push the Bonds Yield Rate Higher. Higher the Yield Rate, the more the Trouble on Chinese and Indian Companies, they won't be able to service their Debt Obligation, which means more bankruptcies....You need to understand Trump well

The Yield Rate has already gone up, and Inflation due to Tarif has already started going up. On Aug 1st, Trump will impose more Tariffs on India, that's where the shit will hit the fan.
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Vancarbon
Jul 17, 2025 12:17pm
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
So tariff inflation appearing in goods inflation but not in service inflation yet, all things equal leaning towards cut. Question is if we see goods to services spillover moving forward. My bet is we will
…. and I wouldn’t bet against your assumption.
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Vancarbon
Jul 17, 2025 12:24pm — Edited
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Quoting CycleGF
What I dont understand, why Trump is stuck and stubborn on interest rate. The economy is solid, employment is going up, sales are higher. Unemployment is down. Trump should be bragging about the economic performance rather than bitching and cursing Powell over interest rate. The Fed knows what they are doing, and interest rate policy is geared towards long term stability of the prices. WTF is wrong with Trump ? Current rate is not impacting anyone, and the economy if just fine....DXY should be strengthening against all other Pairs
You have to be joking with me ?

Have you seen the debt levels and repayments coming up soon . Go outside in a storm and try and p*ss in the wind , that’s the headwinds the US economy is facing. Fine and Dandy taking in revenue, however when outgoings start to encroach on income - well , then you have a problem .

Lower rates- low financing charges .

However the inflation genie is always waiting for these moments
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TimmyBTrades
Jul 17, 2025 2:12pm
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Quoting Trader#2513
{quote} No because if goods inflation rises then layoffs ensue which lowers services inflation. Rates, tariffs, taxes are all costs which raise prices until high prices eventually cause a recession and that's how prices ultimately come down. Raising rates itself doesn't lower inflation, but the recession it causes eventually does.
Simplistic explanation, firms can act in a number of ways. What if rather than layoffs they raise prices of their services to recover their profit margins? I think this is more likely, as the price increase would be gradual vs. shock due to inventory buildup.

Raising rates does not need to cause a recession, increased cost of capital can slow down business operations, optimally without causing a recession.
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CycleGF
Jul 17, 2025 12:17pm
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What I dont understand, why Trump is stuck and stubborn on interest rate. The economy is solid, employment is going up, sales are higher. Unemployment is down. Trump should be bragging about the economic performance rather than bitching and cursing Powell over interest rate. The Fed knows what they are doing, and interest rate policy is geared towards long term stability of the prices. WTF is wrong with Trump ? Current rate is not impacting anyone, and the economy if just fine....DXY should be strengthening against all other Pairs
Reply
CycleGF
Jul 17, 2025 12:36pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} You have to be joking with me ? Have you seen the debt levels and repayments coming up soon . Go outside in a storm and try and p*ss in the wind , that’s the headwinds the US economy is facing. Fine and Dandy taking in revenue, however when outgoings start to encroach on income - well then you have a problem . Lower rates- low financing charges . However, the inflation genie is always waiting for these moments
You said it , $40 Trillion Debt, so how is lower rate will help to bring the debt level down ? Lowering the interest rate will only increase the amount of Borrowing. Don't think Fed will lower the Rate any time soon until its ready to be less restrictive and ready to print more money, not any time soon...

I have a solution.. Sell Your Gold and Pay Off Your Debt... Why is everyone Hoarding the Gold while having too much Debt...it doesnt make sense....
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glenngie
Jul 17, 2025 2:07pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
“WHAT'S BOTHERSOME STILL IS WE HAVEN'T ACHIEVED PRICE STABILITY” How do you achieve this when tariffs are fluctuating on a weekly basis ? As yet no one knows what effect they’ll have on the consumer or suppliers once inventory pass through has run off . It’s the dark matter of the universe .
At least PPI came in unchanged and that's a forward looking indicator of prices.
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Trader#2513
Jul 17, 2025 12:52pm
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
So tariff inflation appearing in goods inflation but not in service inflation yet, all things equal leaning towards cut. Question is if we see goods to services spillover moving forward. My bet is we will
No because if goods inflation rises then layoffs ensue which lowers services inflation. Rates, tariffs, taxes are all costs which raise prices until high prices eventually cause a recession and that's how prices ultimately come down. Raising rates itself doesn't lower inflation, but the recession it causes eventually does.
Reply
Trader#1B4B
Jul 17, 2025 2:58pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} You have to be joking with me ? Have you seen the debt levels and repayments coming up soon . Go outside in a storm and try and p*ss in the wind , that’s the headwinds the US economy is facing. Fine and Dandy taking in revenue, however when outgoings start to encroach on income - well , then you have a problem . Lower rates- low financing charges . However the inflation genie is always waiting for these moments
You're too emotional. The numbers released over the last six months don't lie.

Quote
Have you seen the debt levels and repayments coming up soon

In June, we had the first surplus since 2017
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Trader#6762
Sep 19, 2025 12:30am
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I understand your point, but the situation isn’t that simple for India. Unlike China, India is not purely export-driven — our economy is strongly supported by domestic consumption, which makes up nearly 60% of our GDP. That means even if tariffs hit some export sectors, India’s internal demand keeps the engine running.

Also, India has diversified strengths: IT services, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and a growing startup ecosystem — most of these are not directly affected by U.S. tariffs. In fact, sectors like IT and services continue to bring in strong foreign exchange.

Yes, tariffs and higher bond yields can create short-term challenges for companies with external debt, but India has been taking steps toward de-dollarizing trade, improving foreign reserves, and pushing for self-reliance through programs like Atmanirbhar Bharat. The Reserve Bank of India also has strong regulatory controls to stabilize financial shocks.

So while Trump’s policies may hurt in the short term, India’s fundamentals are resilient. The real trade war is between the U.S. and China. India may experience side effects, but in the long run, our growth trajectory remains strong — IMF and World Bank projections still place India as one of the fastest-growing major economies.
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