Disliked{quote} Hi Thomas, I am with you; I wouldn't go full blast Dollar strength (DXY). Too many factors speak against. One critical moment that will point to the future trajectory will the Monday's close. Monday's close will seal the month and the yearly quarter. Both are significant time parameter for the long term - at which whales like pension funds and re-insurers looking at. Of course, there might be some relief rallies - but they will turn out to be limited. One reason is in the channel of your chart. From another source I took this channel application...Ignored
I think its more simple then that. To truely fight Inflation the FED would have to raise rates much higher or keep them high for a longer time. The last time the Fed has sucessfully fought inflation was in the late 1970s early 1980s with Feds fund rate at up to 10%-20%.
The Problem is the higher the Dept the more limited the Fed is to raise rates. Becouse the interest payment on National Dept would exeed tax revenus. In other words, the FED is trapped. The Bill will add more Dept and a lead to higher interest payments.
Currently Only the interest payment on National Dept takes up 18,3% of all yearly Tax revenues, not even talking about the principle on the dept.
The current FED approach is pathetic, i think the US wants inflation to pay off old depts with worthless money. The DXY is a basket of currencys, the DXY wont continiu to fall becouse other currencys lose value in simular speeds. 57,6% of the DXY is the EUR, a weak EUR is enough for DXY to rise. A weak EUR or a weak yen is enough to make the USD look stronger again.
Im not here to predict. I want to see action taken to streghten the USD, thats when i will look for sells in Gold. Wars ending and trade deals.
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Market Analysis XAUUSD (M15)
Resistance: 33423346 → previous high + volume cluster
Support: 33303334 → Fibonacci 5061.8% retracement + volume base
BOS Level: 3318 → key structural pivot (bearish if broken)
Trading Scenarios Step-by-Step Format
Scenario 1: Pullback Buy from Support
Wait for price to retrace to 33303334
Look for confirmation via CHoCH or bullish engulfing pattern
Enter Buy once confirmation is valid 
Targets: 3342 → 3348
Stop Loss: below 3328
Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout & Continuation
Confirm breakout with volume or momentum
Scenario 3: Fade from Supply Zone (Failed Breakout)
Watch price as it taps into 33423346
Scenario 4: Bearish Break of Structure (BOS)
Monitor for clean break below 3318
Wait for pullback to previous support turned resistance
