Another 4R on gold 
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
- #81,364
- Jul 3, 2025 7:02am Jul 3, 2025 7:02am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,709 Posts
The Average Discount Everything
- #81,367
- Jul 3, 2025 7:12am Jul 3, 2025 7:12am
Gold futures are having a bipolar day, and I don't expect much movement later with the NFP. I'm not risking any of my weekly profits and am calling an early weekend. good luck for later traders, if you are trading
Here are the latest consensus forecasts and context for the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Thursday, July 3, 2025 (released at 12:30 GMT / 8:30 ET, a day ahead of the usual schedule due to the July 4 holiday) fxstreet.com+3fxstreet.com+3ainvest.com+3:
June 2025 Payroll Forecast- Nonfarm Payrolls (total jobs): +110,000
(Range: 70,000 – 130,000) en.wikipedia.org+7investors.com+7fxstreet.com+7 - Private sector payrolls (BLS): ~+100,000
- Unemployment rate: expected to tick up to 4.3% (from 4.2% in May) youtube.com+6investors.com+6fxstreet.com+6
- Average Hourly Earnings (wages): forecast ~+3.9% YoY, with a monthly gain of around +0.2–0.3% MoM fxstreet.com
Context & Additional Indicators
- ADP private payrolls (Jul 2) came in at –33,000, much weaker than the expected +99K; ADP has limited correlation with the official BLS report investing.com+1reuters.com+1.
- Jobless claims & JOLTS data show modest deterioration, with layoffs ticking higher and job openings holding around 7.77 million tradingeconomics.com+8fxstreet.com+8fxstreet.com+8.
- Labor market cooling trend: May’s NFP was 139K (below revised expectations), vs. April's 177K .
Market Implications
Federal Reserve Outlook: A cooler report would bolster expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year. Futures price in ~25% odds of a cut in July and ~95% in September investors.com+1fxstreet.com+1.
USD & asset markets: Slower job growth may weaken the U.S. dollar and boost risk assets and gold, while stronger payrolls could have the opposite effect .
Summary Table
MetricForecast
Nonfarm Payrolls (total)+110,000 (70K–130K)
Private Payrolls+100,000
Unemployment Rate4.3% (up from 4.2%)
Average Hourly Earnings~+3.9% YoY; +0.2–0.3% MoM
- #81,369
- Jul 3, 2025 7:21am Jul 3, 2025 7:21am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,709 Posts
price analysis during NFP in the black box area
The Average Discount Everything
- #81,371
- Jul 3, 2025 7:25am Jul 3, 2025 7:25am
{quote} Before I go, I'll publish this, it took me all night gathering this data (chatgpt 1 second search) Here are the latest consensus forecasts and context for the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Thursday, July 3, 2025 (released at 12:30 GMT / 8:30 ET, a day ahead of the usual schedule due to the July 4 holiday) fxstreet.com+3fxstreet.com+3ainvest.com+3:
They might be slowly getting rid some of their owned Stonks/Indices.
- #81,372
- Jul 3, 2025 7:26am Jul 3, 2025 7:26am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 2,965 Posts
on a postive roll...
- #81,373
- Jul 3, 2025 7:26am Jul 3, 2025 7:26am
- Joined Apr 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,192 Posts | Online Now
for the 1st time.. NFP is on Thursday.....never happened in my trading day..ever...
- #81,374
- Jul 3, 2025 7:35am Jul 3, 2025 7:35am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,709 Posts
Hopefully the good USD data will be appreciated positively by the market
This condition is fair if price going down 10 times volatility
The Average Discount Everything
- #81,375
- Jul 3, 2025 7:37am Jul 3, 2025 7:37am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,558 Posts
for the 1st time.. NFP is on Thursday...
- July 3, 2025 — shifted due to July 4 falling on a Friday
- July 2, 2020 — also moved for the same reason
- July 3, 2014 — another Independence Day adjustment
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #81,377
- Jul 3, 2025 7:37am Jul 3, 2025 7:37am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 5,354 Posts
btw, sorry if it was mentioned already
”cup&handle pattern” with
3450th as fib 100
3244th as fib 0
gives us “up limit” at
3372th as fib 61.8
to confirm
”cup&handle pattern” with
3450th as fib 100
3244th as fib 0
gives us “up limit” at
3372th as fib 61.8
to confirm
dolce vita
- #81,378
- Jul 3, 2025 7:39am Jul 3, 2025 7:39am
- Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,008 Posts
First entry after 2 fucking waiting day Targeting mininum 3321 {image}
lovely news give me fucking 400pips
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
