Trump: I have been speaking to Iran

Quoting NotAtrader

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Trump : I have been speaking to Iran. Me : Me too. So what?

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Hi

I want to confess - ME TOO!! !!!

Go well / Mos

NotAtrader

Jun 21, 2025 5:23am

Quoting mosiskv

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{quote} Hi I want to confess - ME TOO!! !!! Go well / Mos

Ignored

I will speak to them in two weeks time again and we we'll see what we can do in to weeks time

Jun 21, 2025 12:29pm

You could argue that the only way to permanently extinguish the threat of an Iran with nuclear weapons would be to effect deep and lasting regime change. This is something that the US has usually failed at before, miserably. (Yes including in Iran!) The US is good at blowing shit up, but doesn't have the social skills or the interest really in taking over and colonizing other countries. (The reason I have some Norse/Swedish genes is because the Vikings needed to get out of Norway, went to the British Isles, raped and pillaged and intermarried and STAYED THERE forever. Nobody at CENTCOM is thinking along those lines). So, I'm saying the US has zero chance of getting regime change done in Iran. And, if Israel kills all the nuclear scientists and bombs to dust all the established nuclear sites, it'll just be a matter of time before all of those are replaced, organically. So, best near-term outcome is Daddy Trump works a deal.

Jun 21, 2025 3:35pm

Quoting AaronWard

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{quote} They are shining examples because they worked. Japan and German are democratic allies and have been so for almost 80 years. This is quite a remarkable thing and stands in opposition to the dozens of regime changes that did not work. I agree the initial cost of victory was extreme. Also, my use of regime change is a bit sloppy. With Germany and Japan, I really mean nation-building that occurred after WW2. In the US, when we use regime change, we usually mean a regime change that ends up with a democratic government that is our friend. In...

Ignored

So , extrapolating from that , to initiate regime change that worked in practice rather than theory required two nuclear bombs and a World war .

Certainly extreme . If that’s the case maybe with the benefit of hindsight the US shouldn’t attempt this process . As said previously, from a historical context it’s got a poor record of results despite all its meddling in geopolitical matters .

My own personal opinion is ideologies are changed via the internal political mechanisms , not by foreign meddling or brute force .

Jun 21, 2025 12:54pm

A deal would be great. I am just not seeing exactly what deal is to be had.

The US had successfully pulled off regime change in the past. Japan and Germany are the two shining examples. That said, I dont see this as probable for many reasons.

It is worth noting that the Israelis are the key players here and they are very interested in destroying the current regime. They are assassinating leaders and blowing up non-military targets such as state media and police stations.

The key difference between regime change and regime destruction is the former involves some sort of nation-building. Israel will not invest in Iran, but their interests would be well served by a multi year civil war in Iran.

Jun 21, 2025 3:01pm — Edited

Quoting Vancarbon

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{quote} Japan - Hiroshima and Nagasaki Germany - WW2 I don’t think they’re exactly shining examples Aaron , unless I missed your satirical undertones in the comment.

Ignored

They are shining examples because they worked. Japan and German are democratic allies and have been so for almost 80 years. This is quite a remarkable thing and stands in opposition to the dozens of regime changes that did not work. I agree the initial cost of victory was extreme.

Also, my use of regime change is a bit sloppy. With Germany and Japan, I really mean nation-building that occurred after WW2. In the US, when we use regime change, we usually mean a regime change that ends up with a democratic government that is our friend. In fact, we have changed a lot of regimes, but the usual outcome is that they like us less and tend to be less democratic.

NotAtrader

Jun 21, 2025 1:09am

Trump

: I have been speaking to Iran.
Me

: Me too. So what?

Jun 21, 2025 10:26am

If Trump enters the Iran/Israel war in a blatant way (ie, if US bombers attack Iran's nuclear sites) then I'd have to bet his chance of winning a Nobel Peace Prize are dashed forever. Believe it or not, this is a primary consideration for him. So he will continue to keep the 2-week window open for negotiations.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-...094720676.html

Jun 21, 2025 12:47pm

Quoting AaronWard

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So what if it fails? And then they knock out a military base or two? If these two things happen, then Trump will have a problem with that other base, the MAGA base. The Iranian conflict will then overshadow everything else he wants to accomplish for the rest of his term...

Ignored

Good point. Trump must mind the anti-war political winds that are blowing in from both the left and the right. Probably a good time to go play golf.

Inserted Video

Jun 21, 2025 3:36pm

The economies of both Japan and Germany were wrecked. About 6 million Germans (about 7-8% of the entire population) died in the war, and about 3 million Japanese. The US dedicated $13.3 billion on the Marshall Plan in 1948, in todays dollars about $150 billion. This was about 5% of annual GDP, at the time.

Safe to say regime change aka nation building is easier the closer you get to starting from a clean slate.

Jun 21, 2025 2:08pm

Quoting AaronWard

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. The US had successfully pulled off regime change in the past. Japan and Germany are the two shining examples. ...

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Japan - Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Germany - WW2

I don’t think they’re exactly shining examples Aaron , unless I missed your satirical undertones in the comment.

Jun 21, 2025 11:04am

My opinion is that Trump is not waiting for peace to work, but rather, he is waiting for the Israelis to work. In one week, they have knocked out at least half of the missile launchers. In another 2 weeks, they should have knocked out the rest. This removes his key concern with military bases being hit.

The simple "drop 4 bombs and declare victory" is a risky strategy. Will the bombs penetrate the bunker? It is under a mountain, and the Iranians are leaders in the key bunker technology of "super concrete". Yes, look it up.

So what if it fails? And then they knock out a military base or two? If these two things happen, then Trump will have a problem with that other base, the MAGA base. The Iranian conflict will then overshadow everything else he wants to accomplish for the rest of his term.

Jun 21, 2025 4:04pm

Yeah, nation-building is not likely with Iran. Regime destabilization may be on the menu. In my mind, the most important question is how resilient the Iranian regime is.

The base idea that we are going to drop bombs on somebody and they will then like us is insane. What is also strange is that we in America get fed this story again and again.

As for Germany and Japan, they are definitely outliers. The exact calculus of why they worked is complex.

Steven1

Jun 20, 2025 4:34pm

Quoting vv4

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{quote} The Iranian-Israeli war isn't like the Ukrainian's one. The thing about this one, is that Israel is overwhelmingly wins the war - by a significant margin, and Trump knows this - and wants to take credit for it. He already has tweeted several messages 'claiming' 'some' credit on the success here. He'll obviously want to get credit in SOME way or another, potentialy diplomatic - and otherwise militaraly, but he also has a significant role in handling this war. Israel is not an 'alien' type of ally for the U.S. , it's probably one of the closest...

Ignored

u clearly have ZERO idea on this. Iran is in the box seat. people in Iran can survive without electricity. Can Israeli people survive without WATER???? NO all Iran has to do is hit all of the Israel desalination plants with hypersonic missiles and it is CHECKMATE for Israel - GAME OVER - water is vital to survive

DwnUndrTrdr

Jun 20, 2025 8:21pm

Quoting Vancarbon

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A two week window , which coincides to the day . Iran and the “ Big beautiful bill “ showdown What a finale !!!!!

Ignored

Think of the ratings!!!!

Two weeks to write the speech for the Nobel Peace Prize he believes he deserves.
Two weeks in Trump years are greater than dog years. He’s just working on the concept of a plan. Then he’s over to sort out Russia-Ukraine. Wars are terrible, lots of killing. It’s really very sad.
Muppet in Chief

NotAtrader

Jun 21, 2025 6:26am

It sounds like Trump the

thinks that most Americans don't remember anything after two weeks

Jun 20, 2025 2:48pm

Weeks , Months - or Days ?

Maybe they’re already there , hence the urgency.

Iran knows the security it will give them , Israel know the worry it will give them .

Mexican standoff .

Jun 20, 2025 2:55pm

A two week window , which coincides to the day .

Iran and the “ Big beautiful bill “ showdown

What a finale !!!!!

vv4

Jun 20, 2025 3:13pm

Quoting Trader#8CEA

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Yep, exactly as I’ve predicted since this started. No real US involvement, if any at all. It’s all smoke and mirrors to get Iran to negotiate. No reason to buy oil or gold.

Ignored

I don't want to be that guy but your prediction will probably get expired in up to 2 weeks from now.

If you've followed through, Iran's negotiations with the European countries have failed, as they insisted on having the ability to enrich uranium (U.S. & European countries demand 0 enrichment) - and as long as they keep insisting on that, there will be NO diplomacy.

And as long as there will be no diplomacy, Israel's attack will continue, probably intensify, and just to give you the idea of what 'intensify mean':
No electricity all across Iran (Imagine 90M people with no electricity)

Now, as long as there won't be any diplomacy, it'll eventually happen - and probably much more, and U.S. and the President is wise enough to see what's coming, meaning U.S. involvment is neccessary here to end the war.

So far, Iran has lost it's ability to 'throw' rockets at Israel by 50%+ within 7 days - 7 days. It means they're weak, and their regime should fall if Israel's attacks continue and intensify.

You can't let a country just shut off another indefinitely, there must be end - and that's where U.S. gets in.

If I had to bet, I would say there's more chances of U.S strike in Saturday-Sunday than there's chances of diplomacy (currently), but that's hypotethical.

vv4

Jun 20, 2025 4:11pm

Quoting Trader#3A39

Disliked

{quote} The US can do a strike for the buried nuclear site, then just support Israel with money, intel, and weapons. Which means basically no direct involvement from the US in anything related to a “war”. People are drastically overestimating that this gets out of control. Ukraine war has been gong on a long time without any financial market damage. So many articles and posts about a US “war”. It’s ridiculous and will never happen, the US can simply allow Israel to do the work without getting directly involved. Trump wants a deal 100%, he zero interest...

Ignored

The Iranian-Israeli war isn't like the Ukrainian's one.
The thing about this one, is that Israel is overwhelmingly wins the war - by a significant margin, and Trump knows this - and wants to take credit for it. He already has tweeted several messages 'claiming' 'some' credit on the success here.
He'll obviously want to get credit in SOME way or another, potentialy diplomatic - and otherwise militaraly, but he also has a significant role in handling this war. Israel is not an 'alien' type of ally for the U.S. , it's probably one of the closest if not the closest - anything that happens to Israel HAS to do with the U.S., it doesn't matter how you look at it - that's just reality, whether you like it or not.

As I said previously, Israel can NOT just shut off a whole country for an extended period - it doesn't work like that, not a country with 90M people, and the U.S. - as a Superpower, will make sure that this war ends, while favouring Israel and destroying all of Iran's Nuclear Plans (which by the way, has a direct threat to U.S. it's self, it's like a 2nd North Korea).

calico

Jun 21, 2025 1:14am

Quoting vv4

Disliked

{quote} The Iranian-Israeli war isn't like the Ukrainian's one. The thing about this one, is that Israel is overwhelmingly wins the war - by a significant margin, and Trump knows this - and wants to take credit for it. He already has tweeted several messages 'claiming' 'some' credit on the success here. He'll obviously want to get credit in SOME way or another, potentialy diplomatic - and otherwise militaraly, but he also has a significant role in handling this war. Israel is not an 'alien' type of ally for the U.S. , it's probably one of the closest...

Ignored

You are overestimating Israel's capabilities. A week in and their Iron Dome is proving more inefficient by the day. Interception rate fell to 65%. Iranian kamikaze drones are increasingly able to enter Israeli aerospace, which was unthinkable at day one of the conflict.

They need US involved. But that's far from a guarantee to win. The US coalition is still unable to lift the Red Sea blockade of the Houthis. A conflict which the US recognized that they would need a ground operation to effectively lift the Houthi blockade. For Iran it will be much easier to block the strait of Hormuz and sink an US aircraft carrier.

Regarding your point about Europeans wanting 0 diplomacy, which they themselves said that they'll keep in contact with Iran. In a scenario where the US and Israel mass destroy Iran turning their 92 million population to misery and poverty. How that would work out for Europe? With another massive refugee crisis most likely, and that's the last problem Europe needs right now.

Warmongering isn't the solution. As the day pass by, it seems more and more that Israel's initial attack on active nuclear power plants was just a big uncalculated bet to break the US-Iran negotiations and hope the US will join to solve their mess.

vv4

Jun 21, 2025 7:02am

Quoting calico

Disliked

{quote} You are overestimating Israel's capabilities. A week in and their Iron Dome is proving more inefficient by the day. Interception rate fell to 65%. Iranian kamikaze drones are increasingly able to enter Israeli aerospace, which was unthinkable at day one of the conflict. They need US involved. But that's far from a guarantee to win. The US coalition is still unable to lift the Red Sea blockade of the Houthis. A conflict which the US recognized that they would need a ground operation to effectively lift the Houthi blockade. For Iran it will...

Ignored

Thank you for your comment, you clearly have a lot of knowledge about the topic.

I think it's safe to say that Israel is a Regional Power in the Middle East - and if we stay in the Middle East realm, I wouldn't say I overestimtaed it, I was just being realistic to Israel's capabilities.

It's true that Israel's Defense System intercept less Missiles on average, primarly because of the fact that Ballistic Missiles are completly different from the inferior Hamas' & Hezbollahs' ones.

Moreover, intercepting a bigger quaninty of missiles is costly, and it's better to avoid intercepting missiles that would've landed in an open space.

Judging from the impact that those Missiles have done so far, it's minimal. The real effect comes from the warning Israel's civilians gets when Missiles are launched, which forces them to stop whatever they're doing and go to shelter.

Israel is doing pretty well handling Drones that gets into their air space, and once again - the damage here is negligible.

Regarding Iran blocking the strait of Hormuz, it wouldn't be just throwing Ballistic Missiles or drones to Israel, it would be a Significant Retaliation, very significant - such a decision wouldn't impact Israel alone, but the whole world. In such a scenerio, the U.S. would undeniably intervene.

If Iran were to ever - ever try to sink a U.S. Aircraft, which would lead to American Soliders being killed, it would be a significant retaliation against the world's Superpower.
Both options would have catastrophic consequences for Iran.

Regarding your last statement, nobody knows by how much was Iran close to Nuclear Weapons;
Israel's PM & Donald Trump have both stated that they think they were too close, while others contradicted them.

Israel mentioned recently that they're ready for a long war.
This statement is very worrying, because once again - we've already seen what happens when Israel gets into a long war, the amount of people killed and the damage to infraustructure is huge, and that's exactly the reason I'm hoping that the U.S. intervenes and stops the war, including ceasing all of Iran's Nuclear Programs.

Abmbwu

Jun 20, 2025 3:18pm

Yes Mr trump is weighing on war against iran that means there is a point on buying commodities like gold or oil

Abmbwu

Jun 20, 2025 3:23pm

Without US support Israels fighter jet can't able to do destruction in Iran . That means they support this war so it can amplify later so buying tendency of gold persistent

Trader#3A39

Jun 20, 2025 3:42pm

Quoting vv4

Disliked

{quote} I don't want to be that guy but your prediction will probably get expired in up to 2 weeks from now. If you've followed through, Iran's negotiations with the European countries have failed, as they insisted on having the ability to enrich uranium (U.S. & European countries demand 0 enrichment) - and as long as they keep insisting on that, there will be NO diplomacy. And as long as there will be no diplomacy, Israel's attack will continue, probably intensify, and just to give you the idea of what 'intensify mean': No electricity all across...

Ignored

The US can do a strike for the buried nuclear site, then just support Israel with money, intel, and weapons. Which means basically no direct involvement from the US in anything related to a “war”. People are drastically overestimating that this gets out of control. Ukraine war has been gong on a long time without any financial market damage. So many articles and posts about a US “war”. It’s ridiculous and will never happen, the US can simply allow Israel to do the work without getting directly involved. Trump wants a deal 100%, he zero interest in getting caught in the middle.

Trader#92A6

Jun 21, 2025 12:40am

I have been speaking with Iran, and they informed me that I have a very large penis, far bigger than any Iranians penis, in fact, they used the words massive.. As such I have decided there will be no attack on them.. Thank you for your attention to this matter..

Schweet

Jun 22, 2025 2:42am

Inserted Video

Its very important that these low impulse control vegetables never have nuclear warheads.

Trader#8CEA

Jun 20, 2025 2:57pm

Yep, exactly as I’ve predicted since this started. No real US involvement, if any at all. It’s all smoke and mirrors to get Iran to negotiate. No reason to buy oil or gold.

Trader#BA65

Jun 21, 2025 1:19am

Chickening out as usual. TACO

Trader#3414

Jun 21, 2025 4:47am

Lie. No other country reports any of this. None.

Trader#619B

Jun 21, 2025 6:31am