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  • #77,461
  • May 25, 2025 6:16am May 25, 2025 6:16am
Quoting RoelsMajor
if the premise is that anything can happen, then bias is something that exists in our heads (a projection)
quite so:
a) anything can happen
b) bias only exists in one's head
c) indicators are instruments that visualise your criteria for decision making (i. e. which bias; criteria for entry, exit etc)
d) candles are a visualisation of price, ergo: an indicator (for all those who trade "without indicators")
e) your decision making is based on past experiences and outcomes (statistical edge)
  • #77,462
  • May 25, 2025 8:01am May 25, 2025 8:01am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Not necessarily no; if the premise is that anything can happen, then bias is something that exists in our heads (a projection). I have to ask you: You see the most general picture, which is that the price is currently rising on the Weekly, but on which time frame can you actually trade and what is the pattern? Because the structure of the higher time frame is always formed by the smaller time frames. When someone sees a rejection candle from 4 weeks ago with a long wick, they will naturally analyze it as bearish, whereas currently it is...
This. When I write I see a bearish trend, then I refer to the price channel you can see on H4 / D1 chart, not the weekly which is of course strong bullish. And I absolutely know that this price channel MIGHT be only a wedge correction move and it can still breakout upside from this perspective. BUT right now, the channel is intact and so I see what I trade and opened a short position before market close on friday:

Entry: 3355.77 (0.05 lot)
SL: 3366.14 (around 2% risk)
TP: 3321.13
https://goldtraderapp.com
  • #77,463
  • May 25, 2025 8:56am May 25, 2025 8:56am
Quoting josi
{quote} quite so: a) anything can happen b) bias only exists in one's head c) indicators are instruments that visualise your criteria for decision making (i. e. which bias; criteria for entry, exit etc) d) candles are a visualisation of price, ergo: an indicator (for all those who trade "without indicators") e) your decision making is based on past experiences and outcomes (statistical edge)
Lol you remind me of the architect from the matrix
  • #77,464
  • Edited 9:39am May 25, 2025 8:57am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting josi
{quote} quite so: a) anything can happen b) bias only exists in one's head c) indicators are instruments that visualise your criteria for decision making (i. e. which bias; criteria for entry, exit etc) d) candles are a visualisation of price, ergo: an indicator (for all those who trade "without indicators") e) your decision making is based on past experiences and outcomes (statistical edge)
Yes, then, the question is: e) where is your statistical edge? But 99% of traders here don’t have one—what exactly is there to measure or observe? That’s just it, even showing their results in demo or live, they feel ashamed. And we haven’t even discussed the matter of verification—whether the statistical data is valid or just faked, reproduced using certain software to cheat.

Some companies have tried to popularize trading based on real-time statistics, like Darwinex, but they implement a complex risk engine system that will adjust and alter your original trading statistics due to their VaR (Value at Risk) metrics. For example, you're not allowed to lose more than -6% in a month.

In reality, this system is also flawed, because a trader can lose more than -6% in a month, or due to red-folder news causing significant losses—where stop-losses of any kind become ineffective. If you follow the system's rules by trading small consistently, for example over the course of a month, suddenly this moment is used by the trader to open a larger lot, and the system sees it as a reward for their consistency in trading with small risk — like contraction and relaxation in economics. Their world is a Mediocristan world, whereas real-world statistics in forex—and in any kind of trading—belong to the world of Extremistan. Actually, they could have made it simple by allowing trading only within 21 days (a month) — 6% / 21 = 0.28% per day — but they made it very complicated and seem unwilling to change their mindset even when presented with superior facts.

I think in terms of Extremistan now: there should be no trading during red news, SL must be fixed and BE must be in place (even though this can still fail due to unexpected news that’s not categorized as red but ends up having an even more extreme impact—which we can’t predict). Or simply don’t trade at all if we already know the clue on the day we’re supposed to trade. Then, apply a minimal daily risk percentage, with the hope of surviving in this Market for as long as possible.

Cheers
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #77,465
  • May 25, 2025 9:25am May 25, 2025 9:25am
Quoting Milenafx
{quote} ‏So you're saying that placing a stop loss of 100 pips will result in more losses than wins?
To prove it, you try it 7 times. I've already tried it 7 times, just like I said. Is it clear? This context only for Gold. If u can try it more than 700 times it would be great stats for us all. Lel

See this in simple term:
1. 1st Circle - Luckily there is already a BE+ there.
2. 2nd Circle - Straight 100 pips Loss.
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #77,466
  • May 25, 2025 9:29am May 25, 2025 9:29am
Quoting GhosTraderGT
{quote} Let's see what you have EqKai.
IMO its hard right ..... trying to predict what a weekly candle looks like in the future .....
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DYOR & risk it smart ... not my call.
  • #77,467
  • May 25, 2025 10:33am May 25, 2025 10:33am
Quoting philippw.
{quote} This. When I write I see a bearish trend, then I refer to the price channel you can see on H4 / D1 chart, not the weekly which is of course strong bullish. And I absolutely know that this price channel MIGHT be only a wedge correction move and it can still breakout upside from this perspective. BUT right now, the channel is intact and so I see what I trade and opened a short position before market close on friday: Entry: 3355.77 (0.05 lot) SL: 3366.14 (around 2% risk) TP: 3321.13

Good to see someone short...now I can sleep for an hour in peace
  • #77,468
  • May 25, 2025 10:58am May 25, 2025 10:58am
Gold & BTC level update for next week
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  • #77,469
  • Edited 4:51pm May 25, 2025 11:02am | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting philippw.
{quote} This. When I write I see a bearish trend, then I refer to the price channel you can see on H4 / D1 chart, not the weekly which is of course strong bullish. And I absolutely know that this price channel MIGHT be only a wedge correction move and it can still breakout upside from this perspective. BUT right now, the channel is intact and so I see what I trade and opened a short position before market close on friday: Entry: 3355.77 (0.05 lot) SL: 3366.14 (around 2% risk) TP: 3321.13
So 100 pips for 350 pips. 2% risk for 7% gain.
0.05 lot means it's $100 per pip in your account. If it's 0.5 lot, then it's $10 per pip.
Nice plan but check again the lot size...

Inserted Code
Net Profit / Loss = (Pip Value × Lot Size × Number of Pips) - Commission ± Swap
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #77,470
  • May 25, 2025 2:37pm May 25, 2025 2:37pm
Quoting Alphauptron
{quote} Good to see someone short...now I can sleep for an hour in peace
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chaos is just unknown order
  • #77,471
  • May 25, 2025 3:20pm May 25, 2025 3:20pm
Upcoming weekly analysis!
FA Analysis:
1- We still have 2 opposite forces impacting Gold:
- Trump's policies and tweets: Uncertainty/ Deals no deals/ Tariffs Vs pause tariffs =) Gold up & down depending on the tweet!
- The FED: No rate cut =) High Inflation & High Unemployment =) Gold up.
2- Trump's negotiation strategy: Trump seeks the sky (i.e., 50% tariffs on Europe); Bessent or other member reaches a deal between 10-25%! By the way this is at least 500% higher tariffs than the original ones (pre-Trump era).
- The narrative: deal is reached =) Gold down;
- Fundamentally, deal or no deal =) Gold will be up in the MT/LT.
3- This week, I expect Bessent & Cie will be on the driver seat with deals =) Gold down.
4- FED Minutes and other data will have an impact on Gold.
TA Analysis:
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Price is making LL-LH and Gold is its way to complete a new LH.
As long as price is below 3435, the direction is still down.
From last week analysis, price was unable to close below 3193, hence it went up to grab liquidity at 3357.
This week, Buyers and sellers will have a strong fight around the current level 3357.
It's really difficult to forecast.
Here is just my bias that price will resume down.
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In order to Sell, we need price to make LL & LH at any TF... Higher TF has an upper hand on lower TFs.
Happy green week!
  • #77,472
  • May 25, 2025 5:07pm May 25, 2025 5:07pm
friday night saw a lot of selling come in late in the day along with some absorption right at the top of the market.

there is a confulence of fib levels, trendlines and horizontal resistance at 3365. I'm still short from friday
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  • #77,473
  • May 25, 2025 5:08pm May 25, 2025 5:08pm
absorption
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  • #77,474
  • May 25, 2025 5:20pm May 25, 2025 5:20pm
Quoting Fadhl
Upcoming weekly analysis! FA Analysis: 1- We still have 2 opposite forces impacting Gold: - Trump's policies and tweets: Uncertainty/ Deals no deals/ Tariffs Vs pause tariffs =) Gold up & down depending on the tweet! - The FED: No rate cut =) High Inflation & High Unemployment =) Gold up. 2- Trump's negotiation strategy: Trump seeks the sky (i.e., 50% tariffs on Europe); Bessent or other member reaches a deal between 10-25%! By the way this is at least 500% higher tariffs than the original ones (pre-Trump era). - The narrative: deal is reached =)...
Gold is at the mercy of Trump right now after ATHs.
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #77,475
  • May 25, 2025 5:41pm May 25, 2025 5:41pm
Quoting GhosTraderGT
{quote} Gold is at the mercy of Trump right now after ATHs.
Scenario 1

M15.
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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #77,476
  • May 25, 2025 5:48pm May 25, 2025 5:48pm
Quoting Fadhl
Upcoming weekly analysis! FA Analysis: 1- We still have 2 opposite forces impacting Gold: - Trump's policies and tweets: Uncertainty/ Deals no deals/ Tariffs Vs pause tariffs =) Gold up & down depending on the tweet! - The FED: No rate cut =) High Inflation & High Unemployment =) Gold up. 2- Trump's negotiation strategy: Trump seeks the sky (i.e., 50% tariffs on Europe); Bessent or other member reaches a deal between 10-25%! By the way this is at least 500% higher tariffs than the original ones (pre-Trump era). - The narrative: deal is reached =)...
yes to me also
Intraday only.
  • #77,477
  • May 25, 2025 5:50pm May 25, 2025 5:50pm
Quoting GhosTraderGT
{quote} Scenario 1 M15. {image}
No blue candle so far, only Max Sell, and the Dragon is still flat. Interesting to Long.

Do you believe Adam and Eve are the ancestors of modern intelligent humans (sapiens sapiens), or do you believe in the MRCA (Most Recent Common Ancestors)?
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #77,478
  • May 25, 2025 6:00pm May 25, 2025 6:00pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} No blue candle so far, only Max Sell, and the Dragon is still flat. Interesting to Long. Do you believe Adam and Eve are the ancestors of modern intelligent humans (sapiens sapiens), or do you believe in the MRCA (Most Recent Common Ancestors)? {image}


Goodluck with Longs buddy.
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #77,479
  • May 25, 2025 6:03pm May 25, 2025 6:03pm
Quoting GhosTraderGT
{quote} Goodluck with Longs buddy.
No, not yet...
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #77,480
  • May 25, 2025 6:13pm May 25, 2025 6:13pm
possible short enteries. gl everyone. see you in the morning.
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