DAC - XAUUSD/Gold

I closed my short position, see you next week!

Long @ 2883.30, TP 2900.00
&
BUY LIMIT 2881.00, TP 2900.00

Short, avg. price @ 2932.97, TP 2885.00

Short, avg. price @ 2963.67, TP 2885.00

Gold hit a record high after President Trump threatened new tariffs on EU alcohol, claiming the world is "ripping us off", driving investors to gold for safety.

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2963.67 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2987.41
Long to protect my position a bit...
https://dacnotes.blogspot.com/2025/0...as-3000oz.html

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2957.46 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2984.52

Higher Demand for Physical Gold (Possible Backwardation?)

$XAUUSD Gold Spot > $3033.00
$GC Gold Futures > $3041.00

1. Decreasing "Contango" → Lower Future Price Expectations

1. The market is less bullish on gold's future price.
2. Lower carrying costs (storage, insurance, interest rates).
3. Traders reducing long positions in gold futures.

2. Futures Contract Expiration Approaching

1. As futures contracts near expiration, their price naturally converges toward the spot price.
2. If this is the case, it may just be a normal market behavior rather than a major shift.

3. Higher Demand for Physical Gold (Possible Backwardation?)

1. If the spot price is rising rapidly and closing in on the futures price, it could indicate strong immediate demand for physical gold.
2. Possible causes:
   Investors seeking gold as a safe-haven asset.
   Increased central bank purchases or institutional demand.
   Potential supply shortages in the physical gold market.

Key Observations:

1. If the spread drops to zero or turns negative (backwardation), this may signal a physical gold shortage.
2. If it’s just natural convergence before contract expiration, it may not indicate a broader market trend.
3. Keep an eye on inflation, interest rates, and central bank policies, as they heavily influence gold prices.

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2987.71 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2984.52

Gold surged to a record $3030/oz as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions after Israel's attacks on Gaza, prompting Yemen's Houthis to threaten escalation against the U.S. and Israel.

The Fed kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, as expected. However, Governor Waller disagreed with the decision on the balance sheet, preferring to maintain the reduction at the current pace. This shows that there is debate within the Fed about the next steps in monetary policy.

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2994.53 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2989.20

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2994.53 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2996.49

Quadruple witching represents an event where four different series of futures and options expire simultaneously, with traders left to choose if they want to sell and then repurchase their stakes or simply sell them and take profit. It happens four times a year, every third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

All my movements in real-time on Telegram https://t.me/TradingWithDAC

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2994.53 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2998.04

All my movements in real-time on Telegram https://t.me/TradingWithDAC

Gold futures rise, holding close to near-record highs. Futures are up 0.4% at $3,032.70 a troy ounce, near their all-time high of $3,065.10 an ounce set on Thursday. Gold is benefiting from a softer U.S. dollar, rising central bank demand and fears of a potential universal U.S. tariff, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. China, in particular, is driving the bigger share of central bank demand at 48%, Deutsche Bank says. This rise in bank demand is outweighing shrinking global jewelry demand, which is expected to be at the lowest rate since 1989 amid record high prices, the analysts write. There are increased efforts to import gold to the U.S. ahead of a potential universal tariff, while higher U.S. federal debt is expected to increase prices further, the analysts add.

Short $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 3011.18 and Long $XAUUSD, avg. price @ 2998.04

All my movements in real-time on Telegram https://t.me/TradingWithDAC