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  • #11,001
  • Feb 26, 2025 5:47am Feb 26, 2025 5:47am
Projections work perfectly. Or they breakdown and leave an important point of failure> it's all just a maths calc isn't it? The Hardest thing is SCALE. It really fries the human mind. Those clever clever candle inventors. The bigger the candle timeframe, the less it reveals. Spread is their Green Zero...but are the candle charts just the free drinks and sandwiches they lure us to the table with?
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  • #11,002
  • Feb 26, 2025 6:15am Feb 26, 2025 6:15am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Projections work perfectly. Or they breakdown and leave an important point of failure> it's all just a maths calc isn't it? The Hardest thing is SCALE. It really fries the human mind.
Those clever clever candle inventors. The bigger the candle timeframe, the less it reveals.
Spread is their Green Zero...but are the candle charts just the free drinks and sandwiches they lure us to the table with? {image}

Hi Danger
I gotta leave now else I could find a potential trade setup hahaa and then be stuck up awake for the new few hours
(I learned ages ago to bail out now, no FOMO & no greed as there WILL be setups again tomorrow I firmly believe)

However, I will write this last little bit and go.


YES, CLEVER CLEVER CLEVER
My personal opinion is also that closed candles are a lure.

The lower the timeframe the more noise it produces via what I call the ‘aggregations’
(the hoovering-up of all the buys & sells into a pool of liquidity)

The higher the timeframe the less candles might reveal for sure.
The main problem ALSO for traders is they are on a STATIC chart, the ‘closed’ candles I mean

Which is why I always recommend looking back at a days progress via a tick-by-tick Simulator
(the ticks are NOT volume as folks think of volume as being of a dollar value - they are an event record only where one tick might have been a trader having 10 lots and the next tick event a trader having 1 lot for example, but the tick counter would show “two” ticks and not 11 Lots)

The Simulators I have previously posted in links show a tick-by-tick progress and therefore shows the Delta change within the candle as it forms which
provides MUCH information (imho).

I settle on a 15m chart for my reviews (down to 5m or even 1min to trade sometimes but I happily trade 15m charts now and to hell with the 1-2 pip DD they impose immediately lol)

A key clue can be in the delta change of the current candle and on a 15m candle chart the real key (imo) is then at the open price and where price moves LATER above & below that open point, the candle changing shape & direction on the 15m from colour neutral to green to red and back & forth. Just my opinion.


Once a trader sees all this on a Simulator (and imo you cannot do this on a live chart, as it happens, as it takes too bloody long all day to “see” what happens over & over with candle by candle across session by session. I have done the simulator for hundred & hundreds of hours as it also available on the weekend when the currency markets are closed, which is a bonus for testing & reviewing.

How quickly (momentum vs any stalls/aggregations) a candle develops and what time is within the candle (ie just after opening or towards closing) is ALSO important info in my (ageing, lol) eyes.

And then to look where is the next (or most recent) trader attractor target and if hit “might” it form a Bermuda on its “completion” (if that completion happens) is also of importance (to me, I mean lol).

A closed/static candle holds fewer clues for me and thus ...
YES I have seen them used as a LURE.

Good point, Danger
  • #11,003
  • Feb 26, 2025 6:44am Feb 26, 2025 6:44am
Yes, I agree...backtesting MUST be done with tick data. It's important to see how the candle forms. Essential for day-trading, no so much of multi day swing trader.
  • #11,004
  • Feb 26, 2025 5:30pm Feb 26, 2025 5:30pm
Quoting Morrigan
{quote}
Sorry I don't understand why you draw triangles because you can draw it everywhere.
{image}

Hi M,
The clue was posted in the first chart that promted your first post here enquiring about Bermuda's.
Have a look again at the annotation on the chart and where the bermuda's began
(think liquidity increases at times of day/session)

Quoting TimeTells
A Gold chart, while I rest now . {image}

I maybe suggest you download this trade simulator below, load it in your Experts Folder
and play with it over the weekend on your fave pair, indice or gold

Quoting TimeTells
MT4 only, sorry https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14676017
The first simulator is free, and while I found the 2nd better as you could add a simulated trade as the candles unfold, I won't shill for it.

Then have a quick look at yesterday's gold chart below and see why it is NOT really an everywhere that you might be looking for a bermuda.

Maybe you could now have a break from live trading for a short period and have a deeper look at
Market structures, market behaviours and composition, and market mechanics.

I offer these suggestions in good faith as you move forward and find your own comfortable place in this trading as, (imho),
it will be you in the end rather than the "market as a whole" that you & we all have to come to grips with.
All the best sir


.
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  • #11,005
  • Feb 26, 2025 6:27pm Feb 26, 2025 6:27pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi M, The clue was posted in the first chart that promted your first post here enquiring about Bermuda's. Have a look again at the annotation on the chart and where the bermuda's began (think liquidity increases at times of day/session) {quote} I maybe suggest you download this trade simulator below, load it in your Experts Folder and play with it over the weekend on your fave pair, indice or gold {quote} Then have a quick look at yesterday's gold chart below and see why it is NOT really an everywhere that you might be looking for a bermuda....
I see. You are referring to the session market opens movement where liquidity increases and returns back to the session open.
  • #11,006
  • Feb 26, 2025 6:48pm Feb 26, 2025 6:48pm
Quoting Morrigan
{quote}
I see. You are referring to the session market opens movement where liquidity increases and returns back to the session open.

Yes, that is where I would begin.


I honestly do recommend a simulator for traders in their early stages, then add indicators to a template for ADR, major session opens, grids like round numbers maybe, as well as previous hi's and lows by day, week, month (NOT current day's hi's & low's as you can see them clearly as the chart progresses intraday).

(edit: although I am NOT a pivot trader, I include those in my template also as OTHER traders do use them for a purpose and I just like to see where maybe liquidity would increase again around those lines. So NOT the pivot lines as such for me but the potential increase in other trader interest. And if someone is buying then someone/thing else is taking the 'equal & opposite' side to that trade at the SAME time - just some food for thought is all)

All this I would suggest, should you go down the path of visual chart reading & understanding.
Other threads have chosen the equally viable maths route and you could explore that in time also.

I do not see that one way is better than the other (ie visual vs maths) unless ...

You are wishing to program an EA to do your trading for you, or ...
You lean as a personal attribute towards maths rather than visuals

Personally I am able do both equally, and use both to some extent, while my preference is still the Visual which allowed me to observe the market mechanics.

No one way to trade, or one way that is better (imho).

all the best M
  • #11,007
  • Feb 26, 2025 7:38pm Feb 26, 2025 7:38pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Yes, that is where I would begin. I honestly do recommend a simulator for traders in their early stages, then add indicators to a template for ADR, major session opens, grids like round numbers maybe, as well as previous hi's and lows by day, week, month (NOT current day's hi's & low's as you can see them clearly as the chart progresses intraday). (edit: although I am NOT a pivot trader, I include those in my template also as OTHER traders do use them for a purpose and I just like to see where maybe liquidity would increase again around...
Thanks
  • #11,008
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:06pm Feb 26, 2025 8:06pm
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  • #11,009
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:19pm Feb 26, 2025 8:19pm
Quoting Morrigan
{quote} Thanks


Smart move removing, dont ever post a live chart with broker info on it


Instead on mt4 put your cursor in the chart middle,
click right mouse button,
select, ''"save as picture"''
and download by your own choice of file name to your desktop (and later to FF if you wish.)

Trading in asia has its own behaviour of mechanics I have noticed (compared to pre-london, london & new york) and I don't trade Gold so I can offer no opinion

all the best with your trade

I will look back at the markets again approaching franky, specifically GBPJPY though
  • #11,010
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:25pm Feb 26, 2025 8:25pm
Final post for the morning from me
again just food for thoughts


Everything is tradeable
Nothing is “always” tradeable
  • #11,011
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:29pm Feb 26, 2025 8:29pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Smart move removing, dont ever post a live chart with broker info on it Instead on mt4 put your cursor in the chart middle, click right mouse button, select, ''"save as picture"'' and download by your own choice of file name to your desktop (and later to FF if you wish.) Trading in asia has its own behaviour of mechanics I have noticed (compared to pre-london, london & new york) and I don't trade Gold so I can offer no opinion all the best with your trade I will look back at the markets again approaching franky, specifically GBPJPY though...
Okay. I will check GBPJPY to learn its mechanics along with gold.
  • #11,012
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:39pm Feb 26, 2025 8:39pm
Quoting Morrigan
{quote}
Okay. I will check GBPJPY to learn its mechanics along with gold.

GBPJPY is not called The Dragon without good reason.
It has a specific behaviour affectionately called "The Grinder"
This occurs when both the majors it is derived from, ie the USDJPY & GBPUSD are both heading in the same direction at the same time (up or down).

"It has been the ruin of many a poor boy"
( lyrics from The Animals song, House Of The Rising Sun )


Honestly it might be best to stick with its majors just to begin with GBPUSD, USDJPY till you get a feel & understanding for the movements
(AND maybe just watch what happens to GBPJPY chart as the GU and UJ do their own thing intraday & later sessions)
  • #11,013
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:51pm Feb 26, 2025 8:51pm
Aiming for bigger bermuda, just a small stoploss.

Support
1. Current daily open
2. Current Tokyo open

Resistance
1. Prev. Frankfurt open
2. Prev. London open
3. Prev. NY open
4. Prev. NYSE open
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  • #11,014
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:52pm Feb 26, 2025 8:52pm
Quoting Morrigan
{image}
Moving my stoploss
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  • #11,015
  • Feb 26, 2025 9:47pm Feb 26, 2025 9:47pm
Quoting Morrigan
Aiming for bigger bermuda, just a small stoploss. Support 1. Current daily open 2. Current Tokyo open Resistance 1. Prev. Frankfurt open 2. Prev. London open 3. Prev. NY open 4. Prev. NYSE open {image}
Maybe I should wait
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  • #11,016
  • Feb 26, 2025 11:05pm Feb 26, 2025 11:05pm
Quoting Morrigan
{image}
Wow it was filled
  • #11,017
  • Feb 27, 2025 12:09am Feb 27, 2025 12:09am
Quoting Morrigan
{quote}Wow it was filled

Hi M

I just had a quick catch up look pre-Franky.
That was a great trade in Asia imo.

Price formed a (large) Bermuda again & well done.
Essentially what style you are trading is maybe Swing Trading and you can find much info on this style of trading out there. Keep up the great work.

What will London & then New York do with this gold chart when they enter the fray post-asia I wonder.

All the best again

Trade safe, trade well and enjoy.

.
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  • #11,018
  • Feb 27, 2025 12:27am Feb 27, 2025 12:27am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi M I just had a quick catch up look pre-Franky. That was a great trade in Asia imo. Price formed a (large) Bermuda again & well done. Essentially what style you are trading is maybe Swing Trading and you can find much info on this style of trading out there. Keep up the great work. What will London & then New York do with this gold chart when they enter the fray post-asia I wonder. All the best again Trade safe, trade well and enjoy. . {image}
Thanks. I think I'll check on weekly pivots too.

Is GBPJPY called dragon because it's hard to tame?
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  • #11,019
  • Feb 27, 2025 12:46am Feb 27, 2025 12:46am
Quoting Morrigan
{quote}
Is GBPJPY called dragon because it's hard to tame? {image}

Hahaa, in my mind both Yes & No.

It is not so much taming the dragon which I can usually do each morning for myself in Asia.

The best way I can explain it is that GJ varies its behaviour.

Sometimes (mostly) it is a quiet dragon basically lolling around on the home carpet going back & forth reliably.
And then without any real warning it can start breathing fire

At that moment we better be on our toes and ready to get out of the way if we find ourselves on the wrong side of the equation if you know what I mean.
Those times you cannot tame the beast only ride 'with' her.

In my own trading I am usually "out" of the market more often than I am "in" the market, and essentially watching from afar.

I always will say,
trade safe (first) & then trade well
  • #11,020
  • Feb 27, 2025 12:46am Feb 27, 2025 12:46am
I think there is some resistance here which might be problematic.
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