Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

NQ almost at target (last lot)

Closed +52p last lot.

US PMI news now

MNQ 2nd Short re entry 21.927 last lot
T1 +22/23p 4 lot
1 left for 21.850>>800
Closed +102p last lot

MNQ 1st counter Scalp long 21.812
T1 +19/20p 4 lot
1 left
Last closed +17/18p

MNQ Long again 2nd attempt. 21.816 last 2 lots

T1 +12/14p 1 lot
1 left
Last lot closed -10/11p

Coulld still drop to 750<>700 WS1/-2.0%

SnP stalling at -1.5%/WS1 6050 zone

MNQ Counter long 6 lot 21.689
T1 +25/27p 5 lot
1 left/SL BE
Last closed BE

SnP heading for 6015/10 MPP zone.
Prevents NQ to rebound
NQ waiting at 21.700/675 WS1 zone till the SnP has finished its mission to reach MPP zone (likely)

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in January, a decline of 10% and a steeper drop than expected as consumers feared higher inflation ahead. The 5-year inflation outlook in the survey was 3.5%, the highest since 1995.

The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, ostensibly over immigration and fentanyl will be revisited in early March. Steel and aluminum tariffs are threatened for March 12. The reciprocal tariffs and auto tariffs may be a few weeks later. Investors, businesses, and economists continue to wrestle with potential supply shock on one hand, with inflationary implications, and the consequential weaker demand on the other hand.

Moreover, the focus on the tariff threats is sucking the oxygen from other issues. In particular, the move on immigration and firing of thousands of federal government workers will likely have profound implications for the labor market, consumption, and growth.

The US tariff threats, its peace talks with Russia, and the appearance of officials (e.g., Vance and Musk) interfering the German election is causing a crisis in the Atlantic alliance that has not been seen since at least the 1956 Suez Crisis. One of the implications is that between the costs rebuilding Ukraine and boosting defense spending, the supply of long-term European bonds will most likely have to increase.

Napoleon's advice: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

The results of the Germany election will be known before the markets open on Sunday.
The AfD (ultra right) may come in second place but in the parliamentary system second place does not ensure it will be asked to join the government. And in this case, it will not.

https://www.marctomarket.com/2025/02...-state-of.html

SnP Down target 6010<>6000 MPP zone. Wk TPO GAP up to 6050<>6085

NQ Down target 21.500 MPP zone. Wk TPO GAP up to 21.725<>21.950

DAX stuck at M VWAP at Fridays close.

German Federal Elections Today

DAX targets next week:
22.500 MR1 zone (40% recovery of last weeks slide)
22K BRN zone

EU Weighs Historic €700 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine Amid US Policy Shift

The European Union is considering an unprecedented €700 billion aid package to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities, Berliner Zeitung reports. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock revealed the plan at the Munich Security Conference, stating that Europe must ensure Ukraine’s long-term security through military and financial support.

This initiative follows signals from US President Donald Trump that Washington may reduce direct military aid to Kyiv. However, Trump has indicated that European nations could still purchase American-made weapons for Ukraine. (ofcourse he did) The EU’s proposed package would be financed through joint borrowing, a mechanism used during the COVID-19 crisis.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, the EU has provided over €134 billion in aid, with Germany contributing nearly €44 billion. European leaders stress that Ukraine's security is essential for regional stability, with Baerbock emphasizing that peace will come only through strength. This large-scale financial commitment could ensure Ukraine remains well-armed, even as US support becomes uncertain.

MNQ Scalp Long 21.714 last 2 lots (from Fridays entry/Oversold-Divergence) SL BE

T2 +49/50p 1 lot
1 left/SL BE
Closed +76/77p just below 21.800

MES Scalp Long 6045.25 last 2 lots (from Fridays entry/Oversold-Divergence) SL BE

T2 +7p 1 lot
1 left/SL BE
Closed +6.5 at 6050 zone

FDXS Long 1 lot from Friday (M VWAP /-1.0% bounce/Oversold)
(One lot only. Elections in the weekend could turn out nasty, with a further plunge to 22K)

Back at 400 zone/Fridays RTH close.
Closed +190p at placed SL
(closed a little to early (hindsight)

Up targets 22.500 BRN
22.600 -/+ 50% recovery of last weeks drop. (Reached)

European stocks head for broadly higher open as traders react to German election results

CNBC:

Earnings reports from Home Depot and Lowe’s on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will give investors a better sense of how U.S. consumers are faring.

Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday evening could be even more impactful, as the artificial intelligence-linked chipmaker is still one of the biggest stocks by market cap.

This will be Nvidia’s first earnings report since the emergence of the DeepSeek large language model from China that cast doubt on the sustainability of the AI trade.

It’s definitely one of the top things that the markets will be looking at [this] week. They really want to see whether the DeepSeek news ... is solid in terms of disrupting these types of companies’ margins in the future,

Still in last 2 lots Swing longs MNQ 21.724 & MES 6035

Last Wk TPO GAP to fil. See how far they come & go.

MES 6090/6100 is +/- 50% recovery zone/last Wk TPO GAP close @ 6080 zone.

MNQ 21.950 (last Wk TPO GAP close level and last Wk low) is +/- 50% recovery of last weeks down slide.
Nvidea earnings Wednesday could fill up that TPO GAP in one strike (if not done before).

At 50% recovery zone, markets usually halt some time to see if they make a new plunge/pull back (take profit) or continue their recovery move (attrack new buyers).

GOLD Long 2952.2
SL BE last lot
Closed BE last lot/ Very sideways now.

Targets 2973 ATH zone 2995 MR2

Gold Long again 2955 last 2 lot

MNQ Sh 21.735 last 2 lot
T1 +11/12p 3 lot
T2 +18p 1 lot.
1 left/SL BE
Closed BE

A next drop to 21.500<>450 still on the table.

MNQ Long 21.749 last lot (re entry early morning closed long trade)
T1 +24/25p 2 lot
T2 +40p 1 lot
1 left for the (partial?) GAP close

800 +0.5% still RS zone for now

MES & ES Long 6055 (re entry early morning closed long trade)

ES closed +9.5p

MES
T1 +7.5p 3 lot
T2 +10p 1 lot
1 Left for the (partial?) GAP close

6065 RS for now
6075 WPP/+0.75% next RS

If the SnP pops to +0.75%, the NQ will likely pop to +1.0%/WPP/21.900