Flying Dutchman

The End of Year BIG Red Day for the Yen today, after all the palava that has been going on for a month prior lol.

Tentative timing for the rates announcement (already pre-arranged, of course), as they probably gotta get their own bets on first (just j/k Mr U, honest )

Trade safe today Yenners (or gamble hard on which way they move price immediately after the announcement, & then subsequently)

Trade well folks

their precision is often precise

ps I am NOT trading today, my books are closed for 2024

trade safe, trade well all


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Some food for thought from a guy whose made tens of millions(a year) ? ! ...alot of it GASP trading the 2min TF...
and sorry cant be bothered to change it all to small font..Copy and pasted as is.....
Now lets see what Lance has to say about Hindsight in trading.

Lance Breitstein
@TheOneLanceB
1:30 PM · Dec 19, 2024


THE BENEFITS OF HINDSIGHT
For whatever reason, these posts always tend to trigger a crowd of trolls that say something to the effect of:

“BUT BUT… HINDSIGHT!”

“WELL DID YOU TAKE THE TRADE??”

“EASY TO SAY THAT AFTER THE FACT!”

What these trolls fail to understand is that, in trading, 99% of our learning comes with hindsight.

That is literally how you learn and gain empirical data.

Touch hot stove => Burn hand. You don’t say “hindsight analysis!” and then go touch the next hot stove. Almost all trading strategies are developed via some portion of hindsight analysis, same for advances in most skills.

Imagine hitting a golfball and shanking it. Then your instructor tells you that your club face was open and you dismiss his advice because it was hindsight.

Or imagine if your instructor then shanks the ball as well. So you say “see, you shanked it too! That means your advice about the club face is bullshit.”

You’d laugh at that person. Yet that is what the trolls are doing.

For whatever reason, in trading world many miss an important point:

Hindsight learning is of incredible value AS LONG AS that lesson can be applied and replicated in realtime in the future.

If you shank that golf ball bc you have an open club face, you can then literally try to close the club face and see if that has a replicable effect on correcting the course of the golf ball.

Similarly, the point of me sharing analysis after-the-fact doesn’t make it useless.

It’s for you to have an open mind that based on the lessons I’m relaying, the setup or lesson can be applied proactively in real-time in the future.

Why do you think elite athletes study game tape? By definition that is all hindsight analysis. That in no way makes it useless. They’re using it to infer lessons that can be used in real-time in future games.

This will also bum people out to hear, but whether I trade a setup or not actually has ZERO bearing on the quality of the setup.

Let’s say I made $100k in the setup. Or $10k. Or $0. Or -$10k. Or -$100k.

It actually has no relevancy to how we should be objectively analyzing the setup and trying to find the truths for us to apply in the future.

Let’s say I didn’t trade August 5th bc I was traveling. Would that really mean my thoughts on the setup provide no value?

If a PGA pro is injured and can’t swing, does it make his advice to you less valuable?

Me being in an interview and not trading a setup actually has ZERO bearing on the setup!!! People that argue otherwise aren’t being intellectually honest. Take VVOS. After my long rant, a team at SMB Capital back-tested the setup and found that the variables as I described them had a lot of edge. They were then able to scan for these setups and capture similar ones in the future. All from hindsight analysis!

The point of this long rant is that the trolls that say “HiNdSiGhT!” are missing the point that one can still extract value from a Twitter post.

Or else why the fuck are we reviewing charts and studying our past trades to begin with??

Hindsight isn’t some dirty word in trading. Hindsight is the method by which 99% of our learning is done.

Just the GJ Session Opens, Day/London/New York, for the past month.
For what it's worth

Trade safe, trade well and ENJOY the festive /new year break ahead


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and ...
the GJ Inside bar (ranging) days & Breakout days
For what it's worth



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Very merry christmas to the thread participants.
All the best!

Merry Christmas to all.

Thanks for making this thread, in my opinion, the most honest anywhere.

No moderation required, just a great bunch of traders whether new or experienced chewing the fat.



Andy

a blast from the past .... 5 years ago to be exact .... a New year gift flash crash (a Yen rise out of the blue to sweep for "loose change" )


What the talking heads reported
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/0...ollar-yen.html

What an FF trader reported
after purportedly leaving a lazy $14 mill lying around for when the market opened on New Years Day to say thank you for the 'loose change'
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...sts-14-million


Trade safe, trade well all
(back in January after the settling for me I reckon)

And a final flash CRASH for the day as I wander back out of the office
a bit o’ fun, why not

(tho it’s hard NOT to check in and see what the charts are saying hahaa, but no trading today for me)


Aussie’s first Gold Medal ever at a winter Olympics (2002)
https://olympics.com/en/news/olympic...ack-gold-medal

Steven Bradbury


The inimitable Roy & HG here doing what they jokingly do best
ie, taking the p!ss out of everything they possibly can (aussie style)

(and the Roy & HG skit about the French after the pacific nuclear testings decades ago was hilarious - imho)


Definitely a “flash crash” here
(while Steven was still in the Top Five in the World to even get to the Final)


Just another blast from the past to “while the day away”

Hello traders!
This is BearishOnYen speaking and today I have come up with another analysis for the UsdJpy pair. Daily resistance is seeming to be weak and I am not sure what is going on. However to me the only logical assumption is that this pair will continue to rise for some months. My indicators are telling me to be very careful as a bear on this pair. It seems new levels of higher highs are my forecast for now. However as the name implies I will not enjoy much of a pop here. Okay the yen is simply rising at the moment and I am just not tickled. However maybe one day it will fall again.
See you soon
BearishOnYen --out

Same old
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...int-on-chances
BOJ’s Ueda Avoids Giving Clear Hint on Chances of January Hike


and ...

Same old

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Okay, last GJ chart for 2024 (whew !!!! )


Wishing all a safe new years and a very prosperous 2025

Trade safe & trade well all


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And so the New Year 2025 (for me) begins

Good fortunes to everyone

First of (much fewer, hopefully ) charts from me for the year.


Let's see which way the wind blows today

Trade safe and trade well all


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All the best for the new year TT!

Cheers FWR, same for you pal

There will be LESS of these charts hahaa in 2025 (I promise lol )

But I can't help but look and see how they move the market each day as I enjoy my trading each day, it's my fun if you know what I mean.

Same mechanics as I see it
note: I do NOT give any actual trading advice, folks will have noticed. As imho there is no ONE way to trade our markets.
OR.
One way which is best.
Our own personality style will determine all that, in the end, I reckon.

Good fortunes all

I trade GJ. (Just a personal preference that emanated from my good 'ol George target days )

Same old charts though imo. Regardless of the pairs.
Market mechanics, trader attractors, bermuda triangles, hi-lo's, roundies, and the opens. Each to their own.

So a NON-GJ morning today. (stop posting your charts Pete lol, I keep telling myself . But they all look so similar I love to just show 'em sometimes)
(and ps GJ looked the same also to me hahaa)

Who drives our markets. And who follows them. Which ones are we ?

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Just to finish the week off


A wonderfully orchestrated (?) London Open Bermuda after a massive build up of Trader Attractors up at the top

Leading into a NY open NFP Friday
(fun for those trading the NY session & not sleeping )

All the same mechanics repeating imo
Trade safe and trade well all


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