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  • #55,561
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:38am Dec 11, 2024 4:38am
Quoting Ogscrilla
'94 is a monthly Key level If it holds ...another ATH is inevitable Buying till a Rvsl is confirmed, looking for that at weekly liquidity level '716(Last defence for Bears)
Expecting a swift liquidity sweep at '716 and Rvsl with momentum....CPI numbers should do...and if the CPI won't hold the Bull down at '716....TP would be shifted to '738, '750, ATH
  • #55,562
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:45am Dec 11, 2024 4:45am
Oh yea, could see it too. esp with high chance of rate cut this month.
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  • #55,563
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:46am Dec 11, 2024 4:46am
So this is kind of unrelated but I've been going through a probabilistic machine learning for finance book (not for intraday trading but more to look at investment allocation) and I've been going through the part that is about Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Basically, you can think of the code as doing the following:

  1. You’re currently standing at some point (x) on a line.
  2. You pick a new spot to stand at (x_proposed) by making a random jump from where you are.
  3. You then “judge” this new spot: if it looks clearly better (i.e., it makes the probability of being there higher), you move there.
  4. If it doesn’t look better, you still might move there, but only with a certain small chance. Sometimes you take a step in a not-so-great direction to keep exploring other possibilities, rather than always chasing the best spot.
  5. If you decide not to move, you just stay put and try again next round.

What I found interesting is if you look at the resulting chart, it looks exactly like a price chart. To use ICT language, it even fills FVGs and retraces to order blocks and there are stop hunts.

Inserted Code
import numpy as np
import scipy.stats as stats
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
 
def target(x):
    return stats.t.pdf(x, df=6)
 
def proposal(x):
    return stats.uniform.rvs(loc=x-0.5, scale=1)
 
x0 = 0
n_iter = 1000
 
x = x0
samples = [x]
 
for i in range(n_iter):
    x_proposed = proposal(x)
 
    acceptance_ratio = target(x_proposed) / target(x)
 
    if acceptance_ratio >= 1:
        x = x_proposed
    else:
        u = np.random.rand()
        if u < acceptance_ratio:
            x = x_proposed
 
    samples.append(x)
 
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
plt.plot(samples)
plt.xlabel('Sample Number')
plt.ylabel('Sample Value')
plt.title('Sample path of the Markov Chain')
plt.savefig('mcmc', dpi=300)
plt.show()
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  • #55,564
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:50am Dec 11, 2024 4:50am
Quoting M31
Confused this morning, think it is a buy, PCE was 0.3, PPI 0.3 so there is a fairly decent probability CPI will be at forecast 0.3, so the trend should continue until next high at 2715 / 2720. But can't quite press the buy button I'm hesitating
when in doubt .. stay out .. and doubt can be cos of two reasons .. either you have had multiple losses lately or that your being too cautious .. that you maybe wrong.. if it is the latter, then i suggest to use TSS (Tight Stop Strategy). this way you will be in a trade with an extreme tight stop .. but if latter, shut down your pc go do something else and come back to trade later on. to that i would say if you dont have Chips, then you don't have pips. a confused mind would drive you to make a hasty step.

Hope it helps
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #55,565
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:01am Dec 11, 2024 5:01am
Still seeing ONLY buys.
News in recent time had not relationship with gold. Dollar index either...
But is just a fact!
At the moment trust more in price action than forecast based in this factors.
If anyone Saw today crazy spreads should also think that is not that movimg gold.
Its cam happen a coincidence later on, but for me is just that.
  • #55,566
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:05am Dec 11, 2024 5:05am
Quoting Deal
Still seeing ONLY buys. News in recent time had not relationship with gold. Dollar index either... But is just a fact! At the moment trust more in price action than forecast based in this factors. If anyone Saw today crazy spreads should also think that is not that movimg gold. Its cam happen a coincidence later on, but for me is just that.
Other words... Reject yesterday demand hardly... Then test on 4h the EQ of the rejection. Where is bearish signs? None yet!
  • #55,567
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:07am Dec 11, 2024 5:07am
Quoting goldsimp
Oh yea, could see it too. esp with high chance of rate cut this month. {image}
Well, I won't hope it happens today. I believe it will take time to come through
Every Step counts!
  • #55,568
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:09am Dec 11, 2024 5:09am
Quoting Elliottway
{quote} What is your strategy regarding gold? I would like to assess whether it works effectively or not

if you look at this chart what do you see ?
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Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #55,569
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:09am Dec 11, 2024 5:09am
Quoting Elliottway
{quote} What is your strategy regarding gold? I would like to assess whether it works effectively or not
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  • #55,570
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:10am Dec 11, 2024 5:10am
Quoting goldsimp
Oh yea, could see it too. esp with high chance of rate cut this month. {image}
$3000 and then some
  • #55,571
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:11am Dec 11, 2024 5:11am
Quoting BiteFX
Buy 2697 SL 2687
So, if I had used 50pips SL, broker would have been smiling now. Crazy guys.
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #55,572
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:12am Dec 11, 2024 5:12am
Quoting goldsimp
Oh yea, could see it too. esp with high chance of rate cut this month. {image}
I think there’s more behind gold holding steady near $2700. It could be tied to dedollarization, with countries like China turning to gold as a safe haven. Some nations seem to be diversifying away from the dollar to protect their assets. With Trump starting his second term in Jan and Fed cuts in the mix, I’ll definitely be keeping an eye!
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  • #55,573
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:21am Dec 11, 2024 5:21am
Quoting Markus99
{quote} I think there’s more behind gold holding steady near $2700. It could be tied to dedollarization, with countries like China turning to gold as a safe haven. Some nations seem to be diversifying away from the dollar to protect their assets. With Trump starting his second term in Jan and Fed cuts in the mix, I’ll definitely be keeping an eye! {image}
Yes sirrr. with a lot that's been going on lately. We'll indeed watch the price.
  • #55,574
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:24am Dec 11, 2024 5:24am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote}{image}
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  • #55,575
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:51am Dec 11, 2024 5:51am
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} when in doubt .. stay out .. and doubt can be cos of two reasons .. either you have had multiple losses lately or that your being too cautious .. that you maybe wrong.. if it is the latter, then i suggest to use TSS (Tight Stop Strategy). this way you will be in a trade with an extreme tight stop .. but if latter, shut down your pc go do something else and come back to trade later on. to that i would say if you dont have Chips, then you don't have pips. a confused mind would drive you to make a hasty step. Hope it helps

Thanks for the advice. I think hesitation comes from fear. When I started trading, I was trading with money I couldn't afford to lose. I'm profitable and financially, I'm now secure, but I think I just carry the scars from my history.

I'm out until CPI than I'll revaluate.
  • #55,576
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:59am Dec 11, 2024 5:59am
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  • #55,577
  • Dec 11, 2024 6:27am Dec 11, 2024 6:27am
Quoting M31
{quote} Thanks for the advice. I think hesitation comes from fear. When I started trading, I was trading with money I couldn't afford to lose. I'm profitable and financially, I'm now secure, but I think I just carry the scars from my history. I'm out until CPI than I'll revaluate.
thats good.. we all have been there at some point .. no different here bro ..
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #55,578
  • Dec 11, 2024 6:41am Dec 11, 2024 6:41am
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} So, if I had used 50pips SL, broker would have been smiling now. Crazy guys.
50 pips SL? Might as well gift-wrap it for the broker next time!
| Trading Edge | RR | Psychology | Persistence | Fortune | Prosperity |
  • #55,579
  • Dec 11, 2024 6:45am Dec 11, 2024 6:45am
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}
Exactly.
but CPI is market driver for the movement.
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| Trading Edge | RR | Psychology | Persistence | Fortune | Prosperity |
  • #55,580
  • Dec 11, 2024 6:46am Dec 11, 2024 6:46am
Jumped in with a sell 2695; it's a gamble based on the CPI news but the technical is favouring a downwards move from what I can tell.

Considered waiting, but today I felt like a bit of sport
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