Trading Journal (only my take)

NFP numbers had little effect on the markets. The catalyst for any significant market moves will obviously be the US election result instead.

That’s too tight to call one way or another with any real confidence, but history simply suggests that Americans want a a male head of state….so I suspect Trump will win on that basis alone.

Regarding my trades, and specifically CJ (the one I’ve documented over the weeks), there is nothing to tell me to exit my long position still. The election result will certainly impact this trade, but I’m sitting tight nevertheless. My stop is in positive territory, so cannot lose no matter what happens this week, although I still think that there is plenty of upwards movement left, and in fact I’d be quite happy to see some retracement too, which could trigger an additional buy order which I have waiting at an appropriate level. Either way, I’m in a good position whatever happens, and so far as I’m concerned this is the kind of trade management that all traders should be striving to achieve when in a trade!

No chart to post unless asked for

CJ update
2 long positions closed out for net 415 pips
Final long position in play still, currently +60 pips.

Lengthy trades for this pair which is not unusual for me, other pairs that I have in play are performing similarly. I haven’t had to do much to achieve my rewards other than trusting my approach and making the necessary level adjustments when required and remaining patient.

Next year will be no different for me, with few trades, no stress, long term approach and very profitable expectations again.

I doubt I’ll be documenting much in future, there’s nothing to gain in doing so, with only takers sitting in the shadows profiting from proven traders such as myself….it seems a waste of my time!

Looking around….nothing new.
I see Mr Agnew is still on the thread production line though haha.
It’s his life and his threads, and so far as I can tell he has been polite, which is a lot more than I could say about a number of the threads participants.
I would have to say, however, that the threads of his that I’ve seen do leave a lot to be desired concerning his explanation of them, perhaps it’s a language issue, but the ones I’ve seen are not very well presented.
The simplicity of them though, once understood, does have some merit on a couple of them at least, and it would have been interesting I think if he’d spent more time developing them, but unfortunately it seems he is more interested in a constant bombardment of methods rather than focussing and developing any particular one.
As said, simple imo is always best, after all the market can only go either or down.
In other words, decide if you’re a buyer or seller, using whatever means you prefer, create some simple rules ( I prefer pull backs at value personally with pending orders), and then, if you’ve got it right, you will be profitable…no fuss, no complications, just wait for the moment, execute the pending orders and let the money come to you…job done.

Hello LandLine,
I stumbled across your thread a while ago and read all the posts, some with more interest some with a little less, depending on the topic at hand.
However, i do like KISS so i also made a sidestep to the JA thread you mentioned, where you said that he was on the right track but failed to give the final blow (if you would allow me the expression).

Just noticed you posted something and after reading the post i noticed a blinking light, x-mas tree size ;-)

Attached a chart where i marked to entries if one were to trade this setup.
The blue dashed line indicate a direct entry op the open of the cross of the two lines.
The arrow however indicates the PO point for entering the short. the high a few bars back would be a theoretical SL (but that is not my focus at this moment and also depends on the amount of spice one likes).

How far off am i?

Cheers,
F

Hi F
As previously stated, I use PO levels, whereby I look for value. Not all po’s execute in my case, and often I miss the bus, that is the nature of looking for value po’s of course and can get frustrating if you allow it to, but there’s plenty of po’s that can be placed across all instruments and any time frame, so not all will miss the trigger for entry.

Concerning your chart, if I have understood you correctly that is, had I been looking to place po’s near where your red arrow is located, my level would have been a short at 3378. This would not have triggered as it happens in my case, and that would have been the only level that I’d have been interested in. The fact it didn’t trigger is no big deal, opportunities exist in all instruments as mentioned.
Regarding, the dashed line level mo, my method does not have an entry level to short at present, but may do in a day or two, it is not a clear opportunity to me at this point, and if anything, I’d be equally interested in longing.

Naturally we all see things slightly differently, but my previous post gave a broad outline of my approach in a simplified fashion….whether any of this helps I don’t know, but po’s at value is my message that’s all

Thank you for the reply.
I am fully aware of the fact that you work with POs and your reply to the dashed cross is exactly what i expected. There will always be a new opportunity and by that token also a new PO.
I'll double check a few more of your setups in the thread and then i will know for sure what you are alluding to. If that turns out to be the case then i have to say kudos because it is indeed simple.

Been a while, but the same ol same ol, the serial posters and the like, repeating repeating repeating the same ol stuff day in day out, what’s wrong with these people!
Say what you want to say once maybe twice, then shut up, and answer any relevant questions asked, but don’t keep saying the same crap, that’s only a formula that commercial advertisers use…unless of course that is your intent, or is it simply that you have no life…either way stfu, and yes I’m talking to you!!!

I’ve been trading quite a few years, and pretty much seen most approaches to conventional ta trading ideas.
its safe for me to say that with experience behind me, that analysing using indicators and such like will send new traders nuts, and you will eventually realise that you are chasing your own tail.
Evidence is clear to see just by looking at all the different threads and their failures.
I’d advise anyone starting out to think outside the box, ditch everything that everyone is trying to brainwash you with.
Consider instead where patterns seem to sufficiently repeat, check and double check different pairs and different t/fs to arrive at a reasonable conclusion as to whether a particular pattern repeats enough in order to confidently take a trade.
There is no shortcut, and there is hardworking ahead for those that get what I’m saying, but in time you will benefit from that initial hard work and be able to spot opportunities quite easily, in the knowledge that any entries made will stand a good chance of a positive outcome.

I wonder whether anyone has looked into what I’ve said….probably not judging by no comments. I guess most prefer being brainwashed instead by the serial poster guys posing as knowledgeable traders!
I remind you, let their track records of any real time trades that they might happen to take do the talking, and it will become clear that there is no one on FF producing a meaningful profit, perhaps break even at best only.
This should obviously suggest to those that listen, that conventional thinking fails when it comes to forex, because most are pretty much all doing the same, and pretty much all fail to achieve consistent profit….. so the message is simple, start thinking differently if you want to get ahead, but I appreciate of course in practice that is not immediately easy!

Not everything you stated is entirely true, not many are posting here, that much is, indeed, true.
Im starting to think that looking for a pattern is one thing but actually 'finding a pattern' is a completely different matter .. ;-)
I do fully agree however that (re)starting on a blank canvas can indeed be a good thing because it (should) do away with preconceived notions.

There are indeed so many useless methods (?) out there that it's not even funny and the proof of the pudding .... not too many seem to be eating.
Except for Tom Hougaard (who obviously does not post on FF) i have not seen anybody post anything live or before the fact, as in making a mkt call.
I'm not even close to that point. Not sure (been a while since i'v read the thread) whether you have actually posted a few mkt calls ..?

But, there are people reading, however, in my case i have nothing worth posting, yet. Just had a nice stumble again so if that turns out well i wil make a post because it also has some influence form this thread in there ;-)

Edit: Just read a line that i missed before ... ( I prefer pull backs at value personally with pending orders) ... and that actually registers very well.

OO..and he is back(f-nl) and I know all is good....here is a live trade going, hitting my TP(red line)..Dow Futures 5 Min TF. Just call me Driven and I do trade live..although gets boring at times.

I don’t know who Tom Hougaard is, but if he is someone with a proven track record, and who you trust, then it would make sense to emulate his approach I’d have thought.
Regarding live market calls, I’ve made plenty of fully documented calls, albeit for po market triggers. It’s all transparently there in this journal…you can judge the outcomes for yourself!
Concerning patterns, think about what constitutes a pattern in your life. There is always more than 1 element involved to creating a pattern!
Food for thought

Furthermore on the topic of patterns.
They occur as said in all our lives, and in Forex of course. We cannot trade all the patterns, there are hundreds maybe thousands, so, being selective is obviously important, but which ones I hear you ask!
Well, for me, I prefer an unusual pattern, that usually occurs infrequently but often enough.
A real life example could be let’s say…you go out and after a couple of miles you realise you’ve left your phone at home, you return, collect it and resume your journey. It’s unusual to forget the phone, but usually happens now and then and the pattern of action taken is reliably repeatable.
Hopefully you get the idea that similar events occur in trading…ie find that reliable pattern that reliably repeats…and of course it will probably be an unusual pattern unique only to yourself!

Whilst using a reliable pattern is very important to my approach, that’s enough on that topic for now.

Indicators….hmmm! We have all explored them in their myriad of forms no doubt, and if like me you came to the clear conclusion that they offer no more real benefit than what you actually see on a plain chart, particularly when they are heavily relied upon.

Market price levels seen on a chart provide all that’s needed in the main, although a ref indicator such as a MA can be useful. The majority of traders tend to confuse and question themselves, often by excessive use of indicators or/and trying to trade small t/fs, where their chances of success by outwitting algorithms is minimal.

Stuff to think about…ie keep it simple, make it easy on yourself to spot the set-up, and take the pressure off by not trying to outwit algorithms on silly t/fs.

The year has been reasonably profitable, but there is always room for improvement.
My simple approach is pretty safe and pretty reliable as is, but I’m thinking maybe too conservative, and to that end, starting in the new year, I’ll be entering any trades identified with a market order and 2 po’s.
Nothing else needs tuning in my case particularly with regards to trade management, which is often people’s downfall, and I anticipate a noticeable upturn in profit throughout the year.
I haven’t bothered with posting charts for some time mainly because they haven’t served any purpose to me doing so, but I may upload a live trade, detailed with entries, stops and to’s as previously, but with such little interest we’ll see.

The new year is nearly here, and as previously mentioned, I’ll be using market and PO’s in order to increase both my trading activity and hopefully my profitability. That aspect will be carefully monitored, because there’s no point in more orders if there is no improvement in profit!
The same general approach will remain as follows
Decide whether I’m buying or selling
Identify optimum entry
Apply initial stop and t/p levels
Add-ons when appropriate
Trade management when necessary

I’ll probably post a live trade soon enough which won’t detail my reasoning, but will detail entry and stops etc which some may find interesting if nothing else.
Ill also see, if I have time today, whether I’ll be able to post a chart with say 3 or 4 months worth of entries that I would have made on a pair, which again may be interesting to those that like to try and figure out my approach.

OK, AJ daily chart going back to August with entries long and short that would have fulfilled my criteria.

Note, I did not trade this particular pair during that time, it is just an example of entries that I could have taken with a market order and 2 Po's as stated before, and I'm confident that most if not all would have been profitable, and gives me reason for optimism in the coming year.

GJ 4 hour chart showing a live single sell mo and 2 sell po's all with tp and sl levels, which will be adjusted during the course as I see fit.

I'll update the chart as I've done in the past if and when anything of significance occurs.

I doubt anyone will take much notice of this post, but if there's a question, then ask.....the chances are I've spoken about it before anyway.

GJ update

The reaction to recent events had an adverse effect on 2 positions, resulting in the s/l's being hit, but of course that is why the s/l's are there....to protect in that kind of adverse market action, and no doubt ( with that ego-maniac continually calling the shots) we can expect that sort of unpredictability for some time yet!

The smart move, given that unpredictability, should probably be to sit back and just watch for a month whilst the so called world leaders have finished their squabbling and start the process of once again stroking one anothers egos. As usual, we will all have to wait and see what unfolds!

I position currently remains for now

As said before, I should probably just sit back for a while and see how the world unfolds in this particularly volatile period of time with regard to trading, but hey ho, I'm here to trade.

GJ update
I've added a further sell m/o and p/o. None of my trades may work out in this instance, but that's true for any trades made, the important thing for me though is complying and trusting my approach come what may, which over the long run I know pays off.

I haven't posted a chart with my updates, because there's no real call to do so for now