Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth 'a great deal' going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns | Metals Mine

  • Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth 'a great deal' going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns

    From cnbc.com

    Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter. President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries. There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a “big negative ... (full story)

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The Fool
Nov 20, 2024 4:02pm
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Politicians lie always, but the markets don't. My guess is Trump will not be able to do tariffs at a broad level anywhere near what he has said he would do. If he does, it will crash both the bond and stock markets, and that'll be entirely on him, which he won't be able to stomach.
Momofrmnyc
Nov 20, 2024 7:15pm
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Quoting The Fool
Politicians lie always, but the markets don't. My guess is Trump will not be able to do tariffs at a broad level anywhere near what he has said he would do. If he does, it will crash both the bond and stock markets, and that'll be entirely on him, which he won't be able to stomach.
This is the most accurate take I've read out the whole thread.
The Fool
Nov 20, 2024 8:12am
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risk markets are going to front run the tariff impacts, well in advance of Trump's inauguration. Expect UST rates to stay up, USD strength, and shakiness in the stock market. The latter especially after the Dec FOMC. If they don't drop another 25bps in Dec, watch out below into Jan for stocks.
Skracor247
Nov 20, 2024 9:57am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} you do know it's "everyone's money" that pays for the tariffs right? what's the difference.
In my opinion, the difference is in the long term. Enterprising Americans will be able to manufacture goods at competitive prices within the US. Increased manufacturing will increase demand for workers, increasing their wages in tandem. More US wealth will stay in the US for the normal citizens, eventually.

It may take several years to come back to equilibrium, but unfair overseas trade will have been dealt a blow. China has been waging economic warfare against the US for decades. Stealing trade secrets artificially controlling their currency etc. Not that the US is squeaky clean, LOL.

If I was a Billionaire I would be investing in domestic manufacturing like crazy ahead of the tariffs.
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Skracor247
Nov 20, 2024 12:28pm
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} don't forget that you also remove competition, that will drive prices up. It's not even theoretical it's been proven time and time again It's good for companies, bad for consumers
That is assuming the US government continues to allow Monopoly, which is outlawed. Competition should thrive internally if Monopoly is properly prosecuted.
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Polimini
Nov 20, 2024 4:42am
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Tariffs paid by US citizens will extract funds from competing countries.
I think Trump found the infinite money glitch in the worlds economy, they will be so rich they wont know what to do with their money.
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Polimini
Nov 20, 2024 7:50am
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Quoting oxbuck
Morgan Stanley: Blah, blah, blah. Tariffs were the way the Federal Government was SUPPOSED to run before the Income Tax starting stealing everyone's money.
you do know it's "everyone's money" that pays for the tariffs right? what's the difference.
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Polimini
Nov 20, 2024 10:54am
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Quoting Skracor247
{quote} In my opinion, the difference is in the long term. Enterprising Americans will be able to manufacture goods at competitive prices within the US. Increased manufacturing will increase demand for workers, increasing their wages in tandem. More US wealth will stay in the US for the normal citizens, eventually. It may take several years to come back to equilibrium, but unfair overseas trade will have been dealt a blow. China has been waging economic warfare against the US for decades. Stealing trade secrets artificially controlling their currency...
don't forget that you also remove competition, that will drive prices up. It's not even theoretical it's been proven time and time again
It's good for companies, bad for consumers
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oxbuck
Nov 20, 2024 7:42am
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Morgan Stanley: Blah, blah, blah. Tariffs were the way the Federal Government was SUPPOSED to run before the Income Tax starting stealing everyone's money.
forexrabbitv
Nov 20, 2024 11:55am
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Morgan Stanley: Blah, blah, blah.
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Trader#BE65
Nov 21, 2024 3:20am
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Quoting Skracor247
{quote} That is assuming the US government continues to allow Monopoly, which is outlawed. Competition should thrive internally if Monopoly is properly prosecuted.
You can increase the number of competitors in a sector by law, and if you remove foreign competition you will have less competition, this is basic math
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