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  • #47,681
  • Oct 20, 2024 4:29am Oct 20, 2024 4:29am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} So you if GDP indicator and oscillator indicator conflict, which will you follow?
Good question. I will move on to another pair. GDP tells me if i should buy or sell USD. Let's say i decided to buy USD and sell Gold. But oscillators indicated that Gold was too strong. Then i should move on to pairs like GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD etc. to find a weak pair to short against USD
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #47,682
  • Oct 20, 2024 4:33am Oct 20, 2024 4:33am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Good question. I will move on to another pair. GDP tells me if i should buy or sell USD. Let's say i decided to buy USD and sell Gold. But oscillators indicated that Gold was too strong. Then i should move on to pairs like GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD etc. to find a weak pair to short against USD
What if there is no GDP news, do you rely on oscillators alone or you carry the previous GDP indicator readings?
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #47,683
  • Oct 20, 2024 4:50am Oct 20, 2024 4:50am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} What if there is no GDP news, do you rely on oscillators alone or you carry the previous GDP indicator readings?
Another good question. You see, i try to stack fundamental and technical odds in my favor. That's why i also stay out of fights about Fundamental vs. Technical. Why not use both? I would add even a 3rd approach if i knew how.

So i trade GDP but not just GDP. I also trade NFP, CPI, PMI, PCE, PPI, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales etc. Almost all red colored US data you see on the economic calendar.

And this is my way to trade. Trading only technicals or only fundamentals feels more risky. So i trade both when they are aligned at the right place at the right time. You can say that i only trade high quality setups for my strategy. So i don't trade everyday.

This week, i have only traded 1 day but made 17% on that day with my new account. I am obsessed about the winrate Here's the trade explorer:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Nor...dling/11174700

You can track my progress there. Sadly can't put a TE on my profile here in FF since i like to use Ctrader not Metatrader
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #47,684
  • Oct 20, 2024 5:06am Oct 20, 2024 5:06am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Another good question. You see, i try to stack fundamental and technical odds in my favor. That's why i also stay out of fights about Fundamental vs. Technical. Why not use both? I would add even a 3rd approach if i knew how. So i trade GDP but not just GDP. I also trade NFP, CPI, PMI, PCE, PPI, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales etc. Almost all red colored US data you see on the economic calendar. And this is my way to trade. Trading only technicals or only fundamentals feels more risky. So i trade both when they are aligned at the right...
Basically, this is another gambling account, high risk high reward tech-funda combo.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #47,685
  • Oct 20, 2024 5:09am Oct 20, 2024 5:09am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} Basically, this is another gambling account, high risk high reward tech-funda combo.
Profit factor is 8. That means my risk reward is 8:1 and winrate is 60%. How's that gambling LOL. I will keep that link there so you and others can always check on it.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #47,686
  • Oct 20, 2024 6:39am Oct 20, 2024 6:39am
We could see 2500 by friday
The warrior of good
  • #47,687
  • Oct 20, 2024 7:04am Oct 20, 2024 7:04am
Quoting ElCampeador
We could see 2500 by friday
That would be amazing. What would be your reason why we could see 2500 in 5 days' time? This thing does look over extended, and I don't think we will gap up on Monday Asian open, although we technically have to create a nice upper wick on a high time frame in order to turn around about a bit.
"Who Dares Wins"
  • #47,688
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:00am Oct 20, 2024 8:00am
Quoting Ravenfeeder
{quote} That would be amazing. What would be your reason why we could see 2500 in 5 days' time? This thing does look over extended, and I don't think we will gap up on Monday Asian open, although we technically have to create a nice upper wick on a high time frame in order to turn around about a bit.
Take a look at oíl daily chart 30/9 to 7/10
The warrior of good
  • #47,689
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:08am Oct 20, 2024 8:08am
Quoting ElCampeador
{quote} Take a look at oíl daily chart 30/9 to 7/10
Please, could you explain to me, why gold and oil have correlation.
  • #47,690
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:24am Oct 20, 2024 8:24am
Quoting PushnPull
{quote} Please, could you explain to me, why gold and oil have correlation.
Good question: I had to ask ChatGPT myself.

The correlation between gold and crude oil is an interesting and widely analyzed relationship in global markets. These two commodities often exhibit a dynamic and shifting relationship, driven by economic factors, geopolitical events, and investor behavior. Here's a breakdown of how they interact:
1. Inflation Hedge
Both gold and crude oil are seen as hedges against inflation:

  1. Crude oil prices tend to increase during periods of economic expansion, as higher demand for energy drives prices up, which can contribute to inflation.
  2. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during inflationary periods because it retains its value when the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases.

Therefore, when oil prices rise and inflation picks up, demand for gold may increase, leading to a positive correlation. However, the strength of this relationship can vary.
2. US Dollar Influence
The US dollar plays a significant role in the relationship between gold and crude oil:

  1. Both commodities are typically priced in USD on global markets, so their prices are inversely related to the strength of the dollar. When the dollar weakens, gold and oil prices often rise because they become cheaper for holders of other currencies.
  2. If the USD strengthens, both gold and oil prices may decline as they become more expensive in non-USD terms.

3. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Gold and crude oil may move together during periods of geopolitical tension or economic crises:

  1. Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks (such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions) can drive inflation and uncertainty, which often pushes investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
  2. However, during a global economic slowdown, both oil demand and investor appetite for gold may decline, as oil consumption weakens and deflationary pressures reduce the need for inflation hedges.

4. Industrial vs. Safe-Haven Demand

  1. Oil is primarily a commodity driven by industrial demand and global economic conditions.
  2. Gold is considered a store of value and a safe haven, responding more to financial market volatility and risk sentiment.

This fundamental difference in use can lead to divergent price movements at times. For instance, in periods of strong economic growth, crude oil demand might rise sharply, while gold might remain stable or decline, as investors opt for riskier assets like equities.
5. Historical Correlation
Historically, the correlation between gold and oil has fluctuated:

  1. In some periods, they have shown a positive correlation, particularly when inflationary pressures drive both prices up.
  2. In other periods, they have exhibited a negative correlation, especially when geopolitical risks affect oil prices but do not impact gold in the same way.

The correlation is not stable over time, and its strength can be influenced by external factors like central bank policies, global demand, and supply shocks.
Summary:

  1. Positive correlation can occur during inflationary periods or when geopolitical uncertainty pushes both gold and oil prices up.
  2. Negative or low correlation may be seen during economic slowdowns or when investor preferences shift between industrial commodities and safe-haven assets.

In essence, while gold and oil can be correlated under specific circumstances, their relationship is not fixed and is influenced by a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

In other news: the earth is flat. Aliens built the pyramids. And god exists
  • #47,691
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:25am Oct 20, 2024 8:25am
Quoting ElCampeador
We could see 2500 by friday
Can you please write why you think so point wise. Thanx
  • #47,692
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:36am Oct 20, 2024 8:36am
Quoting Lloyd628
{quote} Good question: I had to ask ChatGPT myself. The correlation between gold and crude oil is an interesting and widely analyzed relationship in global markets. These two commodities often exhibit a dynamic and shifting relationship, driven by economic factors, geopolitical events, and investor behavior. Here's a breakdown of how they interact: 1. Inflation Hedge Both gold and crude oil are seen as hedges against inflation: Crude oil prices tend to increase during periods of economic expansion, as higher demand for energy drives prices up, which...
Thanks, love it. So trading Gold or Oil just based on each other's movements is not enough evidence
  • #47,693
  • Oct 20, 2024 8:56am Oct 20, 2024 8:56am
Quoting PushnPull
{quote} Please, could you explain to me, why gold and oil have correlation.
Nothing to do. Pattern relation.
The warrior of good
  • #47,694
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:24am Oct 20, 2024 9:24am
Quoting Lloyd628
{quote} Good question: I had to ask ChatGPT myself. The correlation between gold and crude oil is an interesting and widely analyzed relationship in global markets. These two commodities often exhibit a dynamic and shifting relationship, driven by economic factors, geopolitical events, and investor behavior. Here's a breakdown of how they interact: 1. Inflation Hedge Both gold and crude oil are seen as hedges against inflation: Crude oil prices tend to increase during periods of economic expansion, as higher demand for energy drives prices up, which...
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The warrior of good
  • #47,695
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:26am Oct 20, 2024 9:26am
Quoting NrSLionHeart
{quote} I have 2 types of trades: 1. Medium time trades - that is 10 mintes to 3-4h where I go with some small lots 2. Short time trades - between 15 seconds in 1-2 minutes where I go in heavy. Total cumulative accepted loss for the day is 20% of the account. Target for the day is between 10% and 20% of the account for these small amounts. When I get to higher amounts, the target decreases to 1-2% of the account. NOTE: I do those short time trades after years and years of study of the behaviour of the price on a tick base, so I do not reccomend...
You're gonna blow your account with that strategy. You will be in a never ending loop of winning and getting a high % return on your account and then lose it all again. Every time you make money, you will have hope; "Yes, I will be a millionaire soon" then you just lose it all again and you're back to square one. If I am lying I dare you to connect your broker to your LIVE account on myfxbook and show me the link of those 10% return a day, you can't. I can guarantee you that all I will see is "-99%" on your Returns. Stop Gambling, trading is not a get rich quick thing.

If you understand basic Consumer Arithmetic, you will know that a consistent average return of 10% a day should make you a billionaire (Billionaire with a B) in only about 3 years lol. The dynamics of the market does not allow a consistent return of 10% everyday. You're gonna blow your account over and over and over again and you will remain in the 90% of traders who don't make money.

My advice, change your mindset. Most businesses require capital to start, trading is a business. Get your capital up and aim for a 15 - 30% return every year, if you're a good trader you should probably be able to achieve this on a consistent basis. Continuously deposit in your account and grow it with proper risk management. That's if you want a realistic approach though, you can keep gambling and donating your money to wall street thinking someday you'll hit the jackpot and become a millionaire, YOUR CHOICE. If you treat trading like a casino, remember this FACT: the house always wins.
X - https://x.com/macrodave_
  • #47,696
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:29am Oct 20, 2024 9:29am
Quoting ElCampeador
{quote} {image}
Oops, apologies. Didn't realize I was dealing with Mr. Genius Himself.
In other news: the earth is flat. Aliens built the pyramids. And god exists
  • #47,697
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:36am Oct 20, 2024 9:36am
Quoting Lloyd628
{quote} Oops, apologies. Did'nt realize I was dealing with Mr. Genius Himself.
I said nothing. Its chatgpt saying he is useless for financial analysis
The warrior of good
  • #47,698
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:39am Oct 20, 2024 9:39am
Quoting ElCampeador
{quote} I said nothing. Its chatgpt saying he is useless for financial analysis
I wasn't talking about you.
In other news: the earth is flat. Aliens built the pyramids. And god exists
  • #47,699
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:40am Oct 20, 2024 9:40am
Quoting Lloyd628
{quote} I wasn't talking about you.
Anyway, do not use chatgpt to trade
The warrior of good
  • #47,700
  • Oct 20, 2024 10:32am Oct 20, 2024 10:32am
Quoting ElCampeador
{quote} {image}
Socrates platform sounds interesting, and I agree, AI can forget about keeping up with the human mind in terms of all the aspects that can affect the market. Looking forward to this week now
"Who Dares Wins"
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