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Flying Dutchman

  • #10,681
  • Oct 3, 2024 6:43am Oct 3, 2024 6:43am
Just a Breakout Observation ?


Problem is
What defines a Breakout Zone ?
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  • #10,682
  • Oct 3, 2024 7:01am Oct 3, 2024 7:01am
Quoting OAPDave
Just a Breakout Observation ? Problem is What defines a Breakout Zone ? {image}
What about 27Sep?
Too big a range to base a trade on?
DM

edit - hmm...wonder what the win loss ratio is on 5:1 or even 4:1 London breakout trades
  • #10,683
  • Oct 3, 2024 7:14am Oct 3, 2024 7:14am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} What about 27Sep? Too big a range to base a trade on? DM edit - hmm...wonder what the win loss ratio is on 5:1 or even 4:1 London breakout trades
If you do not look
you will never know
  • #10,684
  • Oct 3, 2024 7:25am Oct 3, 2024 7:25am
Yeah..even just looking back thru September there are a lot of quick reversals
  • #10,685
  • Oct 3, 2024 7:34am Oct 3, 2024 7:34am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Yeah..even just looking back thru September there are a lot of quick reversals
I maybe looking at a different bar than you ?
but yes not all winners
if they were I would not be sitting here ?
  • #10,686
  • Oct 3, 2024 7:54am Oct 3, 2024 7:54am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} I maybe looking at a different bar than you ? but yes not all winners if they were I would not be sitting here ?
  • #10,687
  • Oct 3, 2024 8:10am Oct 3, 2024 8:10am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
Let your imagination run wild ?
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  • #10,688
  • Oct 3, 2024 1:00pm Oct 3, 2024 1:00pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Let your imagination run wild ? {image}
I think we did this experiment a while back with BWilliams Market Intent, though it was H4 candles if I remember.

and targeting Daily ADR using the same method.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14347538
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,689
  • Edited 3:13pm Oct 3, 2024 2:51pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting OAPDave
Just a Breakout Observation ? Problem is What defines a Breakout Zone ? {image}
My definition of a Breakout Zone is where the Buyers & Sellers are evenly matched ( prce consolidation) until one side gains the upper hand to
start the next shift in momentum (breakout).

The Wyckoff Cycle shows how Price moves from accumulation, Mark up, Distribution & Mark Down.

It's still relevant today as it was over 100 years ago when Wycoff wrote about it trading Stocks.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,690
  • Oct 4, 2024 4:57am Oct 4, 2024 4:57am
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  • #10,691
  • Oct 4, 2024 5:41am Oct 4, 2024 5:41am
Quoting OAPDave
{image}
Hi Mr.OAPDave
Is this an indicator or manually drawn? If it is an indicator... would you share it plz? thanks
  • #10,692
  • Oct 4, 2024 7:43am Oct 4, 2024 7:43am
Quoting ghazy_55
{quote} Hi Mr.OAPDave Is this an indicator or manually drawn? If it is an indicator... would you share it plz? thanks
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...on-breakout-v2
A little reading
Look in the paper clip for the indicator
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  • #10,693
  • Oct 4, 2024 8:20am Oct 4, 2024 8:20am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...on-breakout-v2 A little reading Look in the paper clip for the indicator {image}
Thaks Sir....
  • #10,694
  • Oct 4, 2024 9:28am Oct 4, 2024 9:28am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I think we did this experiment a while back with BWilliams Market Intent, though it was H4 candles if I remember. and targeting Daily ADR using the same method. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14347538
You know...that got me thinking back to these posts from last year..and u and Dave discussing BW's ADR strategy and plotting the 33% range target on charts. I know BW praised your charts at the time, but I could never get my head round the way you were all handling ADR. The first condition was basically when price hit 33% ADR above or below the OPEN line.

Now, as we all know, ADR levels change DYNAMICALLY during the day, so it's surely not just as easy as throwing a FIB type tool (with 0% on the OPEN and 100% on the ADR20) and saying that the first condition is met when it hits that 33% line? After all, price could have dipped 10 pips before rising to that 33% line...so it would have covered 33% ADR well before hitting the 33% line. [ Yellow boxes are 33% expansion, aqua boxes are 66% expansion].

I appreciate this might be a can of worms that nobody wants to re-open as the discussion did get a bit heated last time round.

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  • #10,695
  • Oct 4, 2024 9:31am Oct 4, 2024 9:31am
Here's the same charts with H4 and daily candle overlay. Also the white lines show the progression of ADR H and ADR L during the trading day. It is messy to look at so that's why I'm doing in in separate post LOL
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  • #10,696
  • Oct 4, 2024 10:50am Oct 4, 2024 10:50am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} You know...that got me thinking back to these posts from last year..and u and Dave discussing BW's ADR strategy and plotting the 33% range target on charts. I know BW praised your charts at the time, but I could never get my head round the way you were all handling ADR. The first condition was basically when price hit 33% ADR above or below the OPEN line. Now, as we all know, ADR levels change DYNAMICALLY during the day, so it's surely not just as easy as throwing a FIB type tool (with 0% on the OPEN and 100% on the ADR20) and saying that...
Simplified 300 adr
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  • #10,697
  • Oct 4, 2024 11:12am Oct 4, 2024 11:12am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Simplified 300 adr {image}
Hmm..I'm not sure the point u are making Dave?
ADR20 today is roughly 264.. are u just rounding up to 300 to make it easier on the eye?
I can see from your chart we had a 1/3 retrace and then 3/3 to full ADR
  • #10,698
  • Oct 4, 2024 11:27am Oct 4, 2024 11:27am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Hmm..I'm not sure the point u are making Dave? ADR20 today is roughly 264.. are u just rounding up to 300 to make it easier on the eye? I can see from your chart we had a 1/3 retrace and then 3/3 to full ADR
Just to get you thinking
5day is 299 that perhaps is more reflective at the moment with all thats happening in the world atm
to me Chart presentation is the key
If you are scanning though your charts your eyes need to quickly proceess what they are seeing
so they need to be
Very simple and logical beccause
I am a very simple guy that does not take myself too serious
Its just a game to me, never going to pretend to know all the answers
  • #10,699
  • Oct 4, 2024 11:42am Oct 4, 2024 11:42am
OK thanks Dave. I was wondering where your ADR figures came from. Then I noticed...the dreaded Sunday Bar !
That means all your ADR calcs will be different form mine..and all other calcs that use daily OHLC will be different.
Can you change chart to GMT+2 to avoid a Sunday bar? Then your daily OHLC will match official daily OHLC.

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  • #10,700
  • Oct 4, 2024 12:07pm Oct 4, 2024 12:07pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} You know...that got me thinking back to these posts from last year..and u and Dave discussing BW's ADR strategy and plotting the 33% range target on charts. I know BW praised your charts at the time, but I could never get my head round the way you were all handling ADR. The first condition was basically when price hit 33% ADR above or below the OPEN line. Now, as we all know, ADR levels change DYNAMICALLY during the day, so it's surely not just as easy as throwing a FIB type tool (with 0% on the OPEN and 100% on the ADR20) and saying that...
The Day Open Line was the starting point regardless, the intent was marked when 25 - 33 % move was in one direction from the DO.
Even if it dipped above or below then resumed towards the suggested 25-33% entry point in that direction.

Backtested the strategy and it was at best 50-50 predicting the market direction, as you would agree when Franky /London sessions open, it can swing around quite quickly.

It's nice when it works, of course your money management skills woud have to be up to scratch when it doesn't.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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