The US Employment Situation -- September 2024 | Metals Mine

  • The US Employment Situation -- September 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical ... (full story)

Added at 7:34am

  • US adds 254K jobs in September, blowing past expectations

    From thehill.com

    The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1 percent, according to new Labor Department data released Friday. The September jobs report blew past economist expectations, which foresaw 140,000 jobs added and a jobless rate of 4.2 percent. The September jobs report comes roughly a month before the election, in which Vice President Harris is closing the gap with former President Trump on who voters trust more to handle the economy. It also comes just two weeks after the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates for the first time since it began its aggressive rate hike ... (full story)

Comment Options
milicentfx
Oct 4, 2024 7:34am
Permalink
after the election they'll revise this down 100K
EventsTrader
Oct 4, 2024 7:51am
Permalink
. Fed might be in trouble. They're cutting rates into a tight labor market but justifying the 50 bps rate cut pointing to a weak labor market.

Not much weakness in this report at all.

Food Services and Drinking Places added 69K jobs, much higher than the monthly average of 14K over the prior 12 months. Demand remains strong as this sector continues to recover.

Health Care added 45K jobs, primarily in home health care (+13K) and hospitals (+12K).

Government increased by 41K, driven by gains in local (+16K) and state (+13K) government employment.

Social Assistance rose by 27K, mainly in individual and family services.

July and August job figures were revised upwards by a combined total of 72K, indicating stronger-than-initially-reported growth.


Information Sector continued losses, down by 8,600 jobs, reflecting ongoing challenges, possibly due to automation or shifts to digital platforms.

Mining and Logging with minimal changes, slight decrease of 5K jobs.

Manufacturing decreased by 7K, continuing a downward trend observed over the year.

Information sector lost 4K jobs, showing consistent minor declines.
Reply
fxx360
Oct 4, 2024 7:51am
Permalink
These numbers are fake, they had to prop up the failing administration before election. It seems like they only counted the illegals
Reply
hesron
Oct 4, 2024 7:36am
Permalink
manipulation data
Reply
Bakker
Oct 4, 2024 7:33am
Permalink
A last try to get the liberals in power.
Reply
Mitiblotch
Oct 4, 2024 7:44am
Permalink
Quoting Bakker
A last try to get the liberals in power.
They will fail together. All of them. Trump is the next president. I'd like to see the media meltdown for the next 4 years.
Reply
EventsTrader
Oct 4, 2024 11:57am
Permalink
Quoting objective
So, here is the question for everyone here: Would you continue to cut rates if you were FED chair considering today's data? A simple YES or NO.
It's unrealistic to expect a Yes or No answer. If I had to answer it'd be that they should at least slow down the rate at which they are cutting. If inflation starts to come back there will be egg on a lot of faces.

Goolsbee was speaking today and said 'external shocks have derailed many soft landings in the past.' He's referring to the Middle East and it seems like an attempt to absolve the Fed from rising inflation due to oil price spikes from the Middle East escalation.
Reply
fxx360
Oct 4, 2024 8:06am
Permalink
Over 100k were government jobs , manufacturing was down so that tells us that the figures came from counting election workers and illegals
Reply
OnlineAddict
Oct 4, 2024 8:46am
Permalink
Election campaign in full swing...numbers will be revised down at some point.
Reply
Ftmofx
Oct 4, 2024 8:16am
Permalink
This adding 254k data is not fake because it is the effect of previous 50bps of FED rate cut. Now Non-Farm sector feel comfortale to some extent for that. USD is deserve to buy today
Windstrown
Oct 4, 2024 5:38pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
There’s going to be some explaining to do if they cut ( as expected) at the next Fed meeting. At best , it makes the employment data today (I’ll choose my words carefully) dubious and a cut isn’t required, which is a rational train of thought. At worst, it comes down to a political statement with the possibility of fanning inflation in an already vibrant economy . We’ve had so many conflicting signals I find it hard to take , not only the data releases seriously , but also the Feds credibility The whole premise of the controversial...
They won't cut, they will only cut in December another 0.5 as I said before, this is not a crystal ball thingy, it's an obvious choice because they need time to analyze the impact of their first move specially now with weird good data like today manipulated or not
Reply
Robert1991
Oct 4, 2024 7:31am
Permalink
LOL
Reply
EventsTrader
Oct 4, 2024 7:58am
Permalink
Quoting EventsTrader
. Fed might be in trouble. They're cutting rates into a tight labor market but justifying the 50 bps rate cut pointing to a weak labor market. Not much weakness in this report at all. Food Services and Drinking Places added 69K jobs, much higher than the monthly average of 14K over the prior 12 months. Demand remains strong as this sector continues to recover. Health Care added 45K jobs, primarily in home health care (+13K) and hospitals (+12K). ...
Last month's Avg Hourly Earnings revised higher too.
Reply
EventsTrader
Oct 4, 2024 9:34am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting swimmax
When government/social services are responsible for the majority of the jobs created not a good sign. Government doesn't make anything they just spend everything. "Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services." That is scary
You take out government and social services the labor market still added 186K which was still above the 147K forecast. The manufacturing sector continues to bleed. But there wasn't any major weakness in any one sector.

Where the weakness is in this report is perhaps the -13K decline in temporary help services. Companies usually cut temporary roles before permanent ones.

Nothing in this report suggests the Fed needs to be aggressive in lowering rates.

Whether you believe these numbers represent reality, or downward revisions are coming, valid arguments to both exist but an entirely different discussion.
Reply
Expo33
Oct 4, 2024 11:04am
Permalink
Quoting Ericedge
Today's manipulation is too obvious damn.though I see euro resilience will cut dollar profit to half before the u.s session come to a close.
I hope you are a demo trader because you are completely clueless
Reply
objective
Oct 4, 2024 12:18pm
Permalink
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} It's unrealistic to expect a Yes or No answer. If I had to answer it'd be that they should at least slow down the rate at which they are cutting. If inflation starts to come back there will be egg on a lot of faces. Goolsbee was speaking today and said 'external shocks have derailed many soft landings in the past.' He's referring to the Middle East and it seems like an attempt to absolve the Fed from rising inflation due to oil price spikes from the Middle East escalation.
So, what I think you're saying is - you wouldn't cut the rate at the next FED meeting. So, it's a "NO"
Reply
Doublepanda
Oct 4, 2024 1:06pm
Permalink
If the US NFP says the govt is creating more jobs and the unemployment data is slightly higher than last one. My question is who is taking these jobs fr fr. There’s something fishy somewhere about today’s numbers.
Reply
objective
Oct 4, 2024 11:17am
Permalink
Honestly, I want to, but it's hard to believe these numbers.
Reply
swimmax
Oct 4, 2024 9:13am
Permalink
When government/social services are responsible for the majority of the jobs created not a good sign. Government doesn't make anything they just spend everything.

"Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining,
quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade;
transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business
services; and other services."

That is scary
Reply
swimmax
Oct 4, 2024 10:35am
Permalink
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} You take out government and social services the labor market still added 186K which was still above the 147K forecast. The manufacturing sector continues to bleed. But there wasn't any major weakness in any one sector. Where the weakness is in this report is perhaps the -13K decline in temporary help services. Companies usually cut temporary roles before permanent ones. Nothing in this report suggests the Fed needs to be aggressive in lowering rates. Whether you believe these numbers represent reality, or downward revisions are coming, valid...
Nothing against that analysis but the jobs report shouldn't be a win for the $ or a win for the administration. It should if anything be considered a loss for the US economy (less making things equals no new dollars in the market, or just government debt spending). The question becomes if the Fed Reserve has the same information why did they make a rate cut? I don't think they are that stupid to believe the market is solid.
Reply
Ftmofx
Oct 4, 2024 7:43am
Permalink
Yes, Job add 254k, uneployment is down, houly rate expectation is increase but down from previous. This is fundamentally strong data. This data may delay FED rate cut. USD/JPY is getting uptrend again if FED rate cut is delay or pause. I expect Gold will fall 500 pips today. This is based on data+ Geopolitical risk+ US election.
Ftmofx
Oct 4, 2024 7:58am
Permalink
Quoting 4x_Trader
{quote} It will not delay but 25 bps rate cut will do.... Why 500 pips only the total fluctuations of gold now is 3,000 pips (hi minus lo) as of this time....
Because Gold is also safe haven and Geopolitical risk is stil around the corner
Trader#2EE0
Oct 4, 2024 8:06am
Permalink
Good morning All: If these numbers are fake as always and MM's are out to get your lunch - why do you guys keep on trading and expect different result. Sincerely speaking, except for Events-Trader and an odd comment here and there....it's always the same drivel. Please save your energy and utilize it for your betterment. Perhaps, Trading is not for you guys.

A special shoutout to FTmofx - your country is falling apart day by day - if your crystal ball works so well - share some thoughts about the future well-being of your country!!

Have a great weekend and be well!!!

PS: I specifically come to read the comments - to get some much needed laughs and enjoy the circus!!

POINT TO PONDER: How will any one's life change - regardless of who wins the election - or where the disturbances are happening on our Earth!!!

However, paying attention to your charts, coupled with patience will yield better results for all of you / Us. I have also been on the receiving end of the markets gifts - many a times.

C'est la vie, pronounced say la vee, has been around the world and back as a mainstay in dozens of cultures. In France, it's still used in the same sense as always, as a sort of restrained, slightly fatalistic lamentation that this is how life is and there's not much you can do about it. It seems natural that this expression is often said with a shrug of the shoulders and a bemused, but furrowed brow.

In English, it is translated as "That's life," and "Such is life." A vulgar slang equivalent in English would be "Sh-- happens."
Reply
4x_Trader
Oct 4, 2024 7:53am
Permalink
Quoting Ftmofx
Yes, Job add 254k, uneployment is down, houly rate expectation is increase but down from previous. This is fundamentally strong data. This data may delay FED rate cut. USD/JPY is getting uptrend again if FED rate cut is delay or pause. I expect Gold will fall 500 pips today. This is based on data+ Geopolitical risk+ US election.
It will not delay but 25 bps rate cut will do.... Why 500 pips only the total fluctuations of gold now is 3,000 pips (hi minus lo) as of this time....
Reply
chiche
Oct 4, 2024 8:19am
Permalink
Total bull sh.........
Reply
IamUSD
Oct 4, 2024 8:13am
Permalink
Amazing but the us bond is so high ...
Reply
hesron
Oct 4, 2024 8:16am
Permalink
100% this manipulation data
Reply
axecap
Oct 4, 2024 8:02am
Permalink
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Last month's Avg Hourly Earnings revised higher too.
Missed that....thanks again for your work!!
bel3ouchi
Oct 4, 2024 7:48am
Permalink
Back from summer holidays
Reply
atillaken
Oct 4, 2024 7:54am
Permalink
If BOJ does not act now next week will be horrible for JPY.
Reply
MatTrader101
Oct 4, 2024 8:14am
Permalink
The fact gold rebounded so sharply on (amazing numbers) just shows that the 50 bps cut was a disaster move from the FED.
Reply
jordanvic
Oct 4, 2024 7:56am
Permalink
Stock market already knew the economy is strong and healthy. Rally after rally
Reply
objective
Oct 4, 2024 11:21am
Permalink
So, here is the question for everyone here:

Would you continue to cut rates if you were FED chair considering today's data?

A simple YES or NO.
Reply
chaoshydra
Oct 4, 2024 8:33am
Permalink
expect violent revision in a month... just after the election as i told so.
Momofrmnyc
Oct 4, 2024 7:39am
Permalink
Thank you market makers - I needed that last TP before the weekend.
frioslegend
Oct 4, 2024 8:36am
Permalink
The market needed the correction. I was on the right side of the coin this time. But I'm out till after the Election.
Reply
Ericedge
Oct 4, 2024 9:29am
Permalink
Today's manipulation is too obvious damn.though I see euro resilience will cut dollar profit to half before the u.s session come to a close.
Trader#4ED2
Oct 4, 2024 9:22am
Permalink
Quoting swimmax
When government/social services are responsible for the majority of the jobs created not a good sign. Government doesn't make anything they just spend everything. "Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services." That is scary
Exactly.. plus , Manufacturing lost 7000 jobs, (Mfr lost and ave of 9300 jobs for the last 3 months) . Leisure and hospitality gained jobs, but they are low paying jobs.
Reply
Trader#4ED2
Oct 4, 2024 10:20am
Permalink
"To qualify these numbers one has to only look at their neighbors. Do you know anyone who lost their job?"
Yes I do.
A recession is when your neighbor/friends lose their job, a depression is when you lose yours.
Reply
BillyIdol
Oct 4, 2024 8:59am
Permalink
Putin in panic, trump in meltdown. Time for ruzzia collapse.
Reply
Thegreatson
Oct 4, 2024 7:47am
Permalink
Thank you market my last SL hit lol
Reply
Hovirex
Oct 4, 2024 7:56am
Permalink
Good deal and one sided
Reply
Fortunatefi
Oct 4, 2024 7:58am
Permalink
Damn, My analysis went so well. Thanks for the news update.
Reply
jaypatron
Oct 4, 2024 8:00am
Permalink
Good news can go on and on like this....
Reply
Trader#C09C
Oct 4, 2024 9:59am
Permalink
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} You take out government and social services the labor market still added 186K which was still above the 147K forecast. The manufacturing sector continues to bleed. But there wasn't major weakness in any one sector. Where the weakness is in this report is the -13K decline in temporary help services. Companies usually cut temporary roles before permanent ones. Nothing in this report suggests the Fed needs to be aggressive in lowering rates. Whether you believe these numbers represent reality, or downward revisions are coming, valid arguments...
To qualify these numbers one has to only look at their neighbors. Do you know anyone who lost their job? Do you know anyone who has been unemployed for more than several months? Are there any foreclosures in your neighborhood? Besides the perceived pain over the past few years resulting from significantly increased living expenses, is the economy in your own town really terrible or is it just “feeling” terrible because of confirmation bias?

The reality is that it’s literally full employment in the US and there are virtually no indications in any of the data that this is changing. Manufacturing has been terrible for a few years now, but everyone knows this. Manufacturing in the US is not the primary driver of the economy and is, arguably, not even relevant to employment.
Reply
Trader#3033
Oct 4, 2024 7:51am
Permalink
sadly i missed the sell on EURUSD
Reply
Trader#67AA
Oct 4, 2024 11:04am
Permalink
ride the volatility wave ...

I got my board out this morning in and scored a few tasty rides ....
thank you BLS!!!
Reply
  • Story Stats