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  • #43,121
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:24am Sep 18, 2024 7:24am
Quoting Samkhan55
{quote} OH seriously?
My job today in only to sell.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,122
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:25am Sep 18, 2024 7:25am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} 63% chance for the 50bps rate cut as of now.
Yes, and that is how ridiculous both the number and reason to raise the bet are. The most reasonable scenario imo is that they cut 25bp, the statement stay dovish and show dot-plot that they willing to cut more but not now or immediately. Price quickly pump but turn around right after that due to big boys limit order waiting above, 15 minutes is enough to liquidate retail traders on both side.
  • #43,123
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:26am Sep 18, 2024 7:26am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} My job today in only to sell.
Pattern should be completed today, but then I Buy.
  • #43,124
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:28am Sep 18, 2024 7:28am
Quoting PushnPull
{quote} Yes, and that is how ridiculous both the number and reason to raise the bet are. The most reasonable scenario imo is that they cut 25bp, the statement stay dovish and show dot-plot that they willing to cut more but not now or immediately. Price quickly pump but turn around right after that due to big boys limit order waiting above, 15 minutes is enough to liquidate retail traders on both side.
First up, then down? Interesting... that's completely opposite to what I think will happen. Hmm...
  • #43,125
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:28am Sep 18, 2024 7:28am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Pattern should be completed today, but then I Buy.
before news Naw?
  • #43,126
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:28am Sep 18, 2024 7:28am
Quoting Samkhan55
{quote} before news Naw?
During the news in my opinion.
  • #43,127
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:28am Sep 18, 2024 7:28am
Quoting SnakeDok
If FOMC wasn't on the board i would go for this setup but the news makes it a bit harder to know where we go first : {image}
Well that one seems still in play we tapped into 2580 instead of 2578 the higher the better before a sell off, now let's see what US does to setup the news
  • #43,128
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:30am Sep 18, 2024 7:30am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} First up, then down? Interesting... that's completely opposite to what I think will happen. Hmm...
Yes, but I don't think it up far. Anyway, I'll take a rest and repare popcorn for later show. Not going to play rumor game.
  • #43,129
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:30am Sep 18, 2024 7:30am
Quoting Samkhan55
{quote} I don't think gold will go down that much because DXY index is weak And this morning Israel attacked Hezbollah so the chances are very less.
this morning Israel attacked hezbollah? No..
The pagers blow up.. we don't know how, maybe god.
  • #43,130
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:33am Sep 18, 2024 7:33am
Quoting PushnPull
{quote} Yes, and that is how ridiculous both the number and reason to raise the bet are. The most reasonable scenario imo is that they cut 25bp, the statement stay dovish and show dot-plot that they willing to cut more but not now or immediately. Price quickly pump but turn around right after that due to big boys limit order waiting above, 15 minutes is enough to liquidate retail traders on both side.
I'm expecting the opposite,
With 60% price in for 50bps, on the FED release, if:
#1 FED cut 25bps, the additional probability priced in for the 50bps, need to be repriced.(good for dollar, bad for asset)- more probable to unfold.
#2 FED cut the 50bps, the 50bps get fully priced in, and more rate cut get priced in for the year ended. (bad for dollar, good for asset, the problem is it tends to trigger a risk off market sentiment- as FED actions deviates from their recent speeches)
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #43,131
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:37am Sep 18, 2024 7:37am
Gold loves this pattern. H1 Gartley 222 sell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,132
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:38am Sep 18, 2024 7:38am
My vision of PA right now
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  • #43,133
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:39am Sep 18, 2024 7:39am
Quoting Whale
{quote} this morning Israel attacked hezbollah? No.. The pagers blow up.. we don't know how, maybe god.
If by God you mean the Mossad
  • #43,134
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:45am Sep 18, 2024 7:45am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} I'm expecting the opposite, With 60% price in for 50bps, on the FED release, if: #1 FED cut 25bps, the additional probability priced in for the 50bps, need to be repriced.(good for dollar, bad for asset)- more probable to unfold. #2 FED cut the 50bps, the 50bps get fully priced in, and more rate cut get priced in for the year ended. (bad for dollar, good for asset, the problem is it tends to trigger a risk off market sentiment- as FED actions deviates from their recent speeches)
Well, as I said, that 60% is the problem itself, and I pretty sure none take it seriously, except you and I and a few fellows here. But we can agree that we too want to buy dip.
  • #43,135
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:06am Sep 18, 2024 8:06am
Quoting SnakeDok
{quote} If by God you mean the Mossad
No comment. We dont know.
  • #43,136
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:12am Sep 18, 2024 8:12am
My Daily Pivots & Range . . . ( pre-open Wall Street & ahead FED rate decision)
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  • #43,137
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:22am Sep 18, 2024 8:22am
Alright... this is my final forecast for the Fed today.

Fed will indeed cut by 50bps. Price will spike up on the rate cut. Then, the question of why the Fed cut by 50bps will spread across the markets causing the price of everything to drop. During the press conference Powell will say that the 50bps rate cut has nothing to do with the slowing economy and recession after which statement everything will start to rally once again and will continue to rally tomorrow. That's it... my final thoughts before the Fed.

Will I add some Longs before the Fed? Probably, but will see...
  • #43,138
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:26am Sep 18, 2024 8:26am
Quoting profits7
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
_____________ all in ADVANCE =
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Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #43,139
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:27am Sep 18, 2024 8:27am
Quoting Silver-King
Alright... this is my final forecast for the Fed today. Fed will indeed cut by 50bps. Price will spike up on the rate cut. Then, the question of why the Fed cut by 50bps will spread across the markets causing the price of everything to drop. During the press conference Powell will say that the 50bps rate cut has nothing to do with the slowing economy and recession after which statement everything will start to rally once again and will continue to rally tomorrow. That's it... my final thoughts before the Fed. Will I add some Longs before the Fed?...

really hope you are wrong.
  • #43,140
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:28am Sep 18, 2024 8:28am
Quoting pedro319
Gold loves this pattern. H1 Gartley 222 sell. {image}
Hi Pedro - Hope you're well

Is there an expectation for the Gartley pattern to take out the low or close below the low of the swing #A point or do you class a decline as min acceptability?

Cheers
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