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  • #42,941
  • Sep 16, 2024 8:38am Sep 16, 2024 8:38am
Quoting profits7
_____________ @ steffile + $cala = soon I'll start my Own xu Thread
You better start your treatment, man
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #42,942
  • Sep 16, 2024 8:46am Sep 16, 2024 8:46am
Quoting profits7
_____________ @ steffile + $cala = soon I'll start my Own xu Thread
that sounds great, by the way, it hit your tp1 this morning.
  • #42,943
  • Edited 9:45am Sep 16, 2024 9:15am | Edited 9:45am
Short at 2582
sl : 2586
tp : 2577(tp hit )
  • #42,944
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:17am Sep 16, 2024 9:17am
May be 2589 is to bulls, what 2470 is to bears. The rejection though
  • #42,945
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:24am Sep 16, 2024 9:24am
Gartley Pattern formation before the reversal, as mentioned by cr7 pedro
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  • #42,946
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:28am Sep 16, 2024 9:28am
Crazy moves on the Dow, on no data, 120 point move up on open. First 1m candle.

could be mass sell off on all asssets coming up.

that looked like a blow out to me

gotta wonder how much of the fed is priced in & NATO vs Russia seems like it’s getting ever closer.
Que Sera
  • #42,947
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:33am Sep 16, 2024 9:33am
Quoting Catempire
Verrückte Bewegungen beim Dow, ohne Daten, 120 Punkte Anstieg bei Eröffnung. Erste 1-Millionen-Kerze. Es könnte ein Massenausverkauf aller Vermögenswerte bevorstehen. Das sah für mich nach einem Totalverlust aus, ich frage mich, wie viel von der Fed eingepreist ist, und die Nato gegen Russland scheint immer näher zu rücken.
all about 50/25
2530 = normal retrace
  • #42,948
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:35am Sep 16, 2024 9:35am
Quoting Isabella_D
{quote} all about 50/25
I think it’s priced in.

50 - spike & sell off.
25 - sell off
no rate cut, see you at 2380 & 38000 respectively.
Que Sera
  • #42,949
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:37am Sep 16, 2024 9:37am
Quoting yesabs
Gartley Pattern formation before the reversal, as mentioned by cr7 pedro {image}
This is the correct shape.
5 mins Gartley 222 sell.
Thank you.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
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  • #42,950
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:37am Sep 16, 2024 9:37am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I think it’s priced in. 50 - spike & sell off. 25 - sell off no rate cut, see you at 2380 & 38000 respectively.
I will add… any move will only be a knee jerk reaction, gold likes high inflation & the rules have changes since Basil 3.1

golds direction remains up regardless but we could see some very hefty swings.. I don’t think whatever happens the rates change the fundamentals. IMO.
Que Sera
  • #42,951
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:40am Sep 16, 2024 9:40am
Recent trade got stopped out on gold … nice one tho.!
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  • #42,952
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:41am Sep 16, 2024 9:41am
Im in for a fat short on the dow & gold. SL above ATH’s.

lets see what happens eh.

Que Sera
  • #42,953
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:41am Sep 16, 2024 9:41am
Waiting for the last liquidation of the leveraged waiting for the last DEAD CANDLES
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  • #42,954
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:47am Sep 16, 2024 9:47am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I think it’s priced in. 50 - spike & sell off. 25 - sell off no rate cut, see you at 2380 & 38000 respectively.
38000? :o
"Who Dares Wins"
  • #42,955
  • Edited 10:03am Sep 16, 2024 9:49am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I think it’s priced in. 50 - spike & sell off. 25 - sell off no rate cut, see you at 2380 & 38000 respectively.
I think its a cardinal question, compare with 09/2007. Of course situation today is another after 0-Rates over many years. Nevertheless-interesting to see what happened 2007
- WallStreet / Goldman differ
The uncertainty is still very great. (normal in such phases, but open-ended)
- Is the economy strong enough yet? Then interest rates are not so important.
- Will inflation come back in the 2nd package?
- Are the statistical information on the labor market reliable or are significant corrections made afterwards?
- Will the consumer buy (see news tomorrow)?
- where are bond yields going? (gouvernment debt)
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2007/2024 Ratecut ~5%
  • #42,956
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:50am Sep 16, 2024 9:50am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I think it’s priced in. 50 - spike & sell off. 25 - sell off no rate cut, see you at 2380 & 38000 respectively.
Yeah i think the market overreacted in expecting 50bpt cut and now people are starting to adjust their long positions, meaning reducing their exposure in case we get 25 instead
  • #42,957
  • Sep 16, 2024 9:57am Sep 16, 2024 9:57am
Quoting Isabella_D
{quote} I think its a cardinal question, compare with 09/2007. Of course situation today is another after 0-Rates over many years. Nevertheless-interesting to see what happened 2007 - WallStreet / Goldman differ The uncertainty is still very great. (normal in such phases, but open-ended) - Is the economy strong enough yet? Then interest rates are not so important. - Will inflation come back in the 2nd package? - Are the statistical information on the labor market reliable or are significant corrections made afterwards? - Will the consumer buy (see...
IMO any rate cut (if / when it happens) will be a short term move.

For gold Basil 3.1 seems the most obvious driver given banks will be able to hold physical gold on their books with zero risk weight and be treated as cash.

game changer & the rise coincides with the fundamental shift.
Que Sera
  • #42,958
  • Sep 16, 2024 10:03am Sep 16, 2024 10:03am
Quoting Ravenfeeder
{quote} 38000? :o
Who knows…

With such high expectation, it wouldn’t surprise.
Que Sera
  • #42,959
  • Sep 16, 2024 10:16am Sep 16, 2024 10:16am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} IMO any rate cut (if / when it happens) will be a short term move. For gold Basil 3.1 seems the most obvious driver given banks will be able to hold physical gold on their books with zero risk weight and be treated as cash. game changer & the rise coincides with the fundamental shift.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14997201
We are brothers in suffering
But it is not a normal interest rate cut. It is one after many years, QE, debts from covid and before the US elections.
I have to take a look at Basel. But it seems to me to have a minor leverage effect.
What matters is whether the economy can do it.
The candidates for the US election have already positioned themselves there. Let's see.
  • #42,960
  • Sep 16, 2024 10:25am Sep 16, 2024 10:25am
Quoting Isabella_D
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14997201 We are brothers in suffering But it is not a normal interest rate cut. It is one after many years, QE, debts from covid and before the US elections. I have to take a look at Basel. But it seems to me to have a minor leverage effect. What matters is whether the economy can do it. The candidates for the US election have already positioned themselves there. Let's see.
No this is very true. It’s not.

the economy is also not in a normal state. All the “positive data” we see is completely skewed based on a top heavy economy. There is only so long that can sustain itself.

i think they call it a fogazi
Que Sera
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