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  • #41,761
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:00am Sep 10, 2024 3:00am
Quoting goldenwizard
{quote} add another TP 2522.60, it's my short PO entry
CPI might get us there
  • #41,762
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:02am Sep 10, 2024 3:02am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} CPI might get us there
No no no. CPI will bring PMs down, not up. This is why they are torturing us with this pathetic long tries, so we lose faith in shorts.
  • #41,763
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:08am Sep 10, 2024 3:08am
Quoting pinguin
{quote} same here
previous short position lock @BEP add another Short @2502 TP same with previous position @2472
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Suro Diro Joyoningrat Lebur Dening Pangastuti
  • #41,764
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:13am Sep 10, 2024 3:13am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} No no no. CPI will bring PMs down, not up. This is why they are torturing us with this pathetic long tries, so we lose faith in shorts.
There’s no way it will be above 2.9, and core might be 0.2 or 0.1%, it will only push the Fed to a .50 cut sending gold Either way I’ll still be bullish on gold
  • #41,765
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:17am Sep 10, 2024 3:17am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} There’s no way it will be above 2.9, and core might be 0.2 or 0.1%, it will only push the Fed to a .50 cut sending gold Either way I’ll still be bullish on gold
Forecast is 2.6% and there is no way CPI will come out at 2.6% or lower. It'll come out probably above 2.6% in my opinion driving everything down once again.

Fed will cut by 0.25% and everything will tank again on the Fed, because that's how the news work. Buy the rumour, sell the news.

In the end... either you or I will be wrong. Hopefully, we don't lose much if we're wrong.

It's in interest of central banks to buy everything as cheap as possible. They'll bring the prices down in my opinion and then buy it all with their worthless currency (USD, EUR etc...).
  • #41,766
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:25am Sep 10, 2024 3:25am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} There’s no way it will be above 2.9, and core might be 0.2 or 0.1%, it will only push the Fed to a .50 cut sending gold Either way I’ll still be bullish on gold
current forecast on rate cut size.

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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #41,767
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:27am Sep 10, 2024 3:27am
Quoting axecap
{quote} current forecast on rate cut size. {image}
73% 25bps and 27% 50bps cut, right?
It was almost 50/50 not too long ago.

NFP drove 50bps cut expectation lower.
  • #41,768
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:30am Sep 10, 2024 3:30am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Forecast is 2.6% and there is no way CPI will come out at 2.6% or lower. It'll come out probably above 2.6% in my opinion driving everything down once again. Fed will cut by 0.25% and everything will tank again on the Fed, because that's how the news work. Buy the rumour, sell the news. In the end... either you or I will be wrong. Hopefully, we don't lose much if we're wrong. It's in interest of central banks to buy everything as cheap as possible. They'll bring the prices down in my opinion and then buy it all with their worthless...
We’re not working with the forecast but with the previous figures, just like NFP people are always looking at the forecast and not the previous figures, nobody gives a fuck about the forecast, hell they might even forecast 3.0% but we’ll be looking at the previous compared to the actual but not the forecast
  • #41,769
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:31am Sep 10, 2024 3:31am
I have extreme Short signal for both EUR/USD and GBP/USD as well, this is why I believe PMs will take a hit too and USD is going higher.
  • #41,770
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:32am Sep 10, 2024 3:32am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} We’re not working with the forecast but with the previous figures, just like NFP people are always looking at the forecast and not the previous figures, nobody gives a fuck about the forecast, hell they might even forecast 3.0% but we’ll be looking at the previous compared to the actual but not the forecast
Yeah, but if it turns out inflation isn't dropping as they thought it would, then the market will react on that notion and drive USD higher as a consequence of the fact that the Fed won't cut rates as much and as fast as the market expects.
  • #41,771
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:32am Sep 10, 2024 3:32am
Quoting axecap
{quote} current forecast on rate cut size. {image}
CPI, PPI and PCE will guide the Fed on how much they need to cut 25 or 50 bp, not some silly probabilities
  • #41,772
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:33am Sep 10, 2024 3:33am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} CPI, PPI and PCE will guide the Fed on how much they need to cut 25 or 50 bp, not some silly probabilities
Look... we can talk all day and until the CPI comes out, but both of us don't know for a fact what will happen. We'll see tomorrow.
  • #41,773
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:35am Sep 10, 2024 3:35am
[quote=Silver-King;14992395]{quote}

73% 25bps and 27% 50bps cut, right?

Correct

It was almost 50/50 not too long ago. NFP drove 50bps cut expectation lower.

Yes there was a lot of indecision , still will be for awhile. I dont see 50bps happening, just personal view.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #41,774
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:37am Sep 10, 2024 3:37am
Quoting 69Doggy
{quote} CPI, PPI and PCE will guide the Fed on how much they need to cut 25 or 50 bp, not some silly probabilities
Of course goes without saying.....but that report is representative of the market expectation.
When it comes and it is widely different to what the market expects....thats when the big move happens.
The expectation is what is priced in before the anouncement
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #41,775
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:39am Sep 10, 2024 3:39am
[quote=axecap;14992411]
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} 73% 25bps and 27% 50bps cut, right? Correct It was almost 50/50 not too long ago. NFP drove 50bps cut expectation lower. Yes there was a lot of indecision , still will be for awhile. I dont see 50bps happening, just personal view.
Me too.
To give some credit to 69Doggy however, Fed did cut by 50bps (forecast was 25bps) on their first meeting when they started their cutting cycle on 18th of September 2007.
  • #41,776
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:44am Sep 10, 2024 3:44am
Quoting Silver-King
BitCoin hit Weekly Support at 53200$. Looks like a good price to try some Longs. If it fails, next Support is at 44500$.
52200$ was the Support, not 53200$. Lately, I've been mistyping numbers. Just to mention...
I see I'm not alone in that hahaha.
  • #41,777
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:46am Sep 10, 2024 3:46am
[quote=Silver-King;14992416]
Quoting axecap
{quote} Me too. To give some credit to 69Doggy however, Fed did cut by 50bps (forecast was 25bps) on their first meeting when they started their cutting cycle on 18th of September 2007.
hi... im new here .. can i ask your opinion about gold ... can i sell gold now?
  • #41,778
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:47am Sep 10, 2024 3:47am
Quoting profits7
" Oil is an absolute steal here " = __________ I almost took that frikkin stinkin BAIT !
Brent is going for 130$. Of course, noone believes until they see it.
This is a steal at 70$ yes, the lower the more of a steal it is.

Why do you think there's no mention of a war right now even though the war keeps going on and expanding? They'll time this one out perfectly, but not yet. They need prices down first, especially PMs, then the news about war and recession will start spreading rapidly.

Of course, I know about this because I follow people who have been proven right again and again and not because I know anything.
  • #41,779
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:52am Sep 10, 2024 3:52am
DXY at strong resistance.

Price taking liquidity at 2507, suggests we might move higher towards 2512-2515.

Weekly signaled a reversal to the upside as well on Friday.

No trades yet, this PA looking hella confusing


Edit - thank you SilverKing!
Fate goes ever, as fate must.
  • #41,780
  • Sep 10, 2024 3:53am Sep 10, 2024 3:53am
Quoting determinato
DXY at strong resistance. Price taking liquidity at 2507, suggests we might move higher towards 2512-1515. Weekly signaled a reversal to the upside as well on Friday. No trades yet, this PA looking hella confusing
1515 point in case... we're all missing numbers lately hahahah.
It'l like out subconscious doesn't believe we are at 2500$ on the Gold. LoL
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