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Flying Dutchman

  • #10,521
  • Aug 19, 2024 10:32pm Aug 19, 2024 10:32pm
Hi,
Nice chart XAU/USD.
Mr MM missed it on purpose this morning, impressing Sellers
Will he break it today? Just wait
Congratulations.
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  • #10,522
  • Aug 19, 2024 11:18pm Aug 19, 2024 11:18pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} --- I keep telling myself (and others) I should STOP posting lol. And stop showing trades & charts. Yet here I am again doing both hahaa. Maybe this time I rest lol The first chart is the NEW day stations & targets that I will look at as price begins moving. Yesterdays day pivot interest lines are gone of course and with such a large overall move yesterday (~350 pips) then many of the targets are now stretched wider than on smaller ADR days so it could get interesting later. The second chart is the...
But TT this thread would die without your posting.
Did you catch any price interest points on the GJ move today?
Cheers...
  • #10,523
  • Aug 20, 2024 12:24am Aug 20, 2024 12:24am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote}
Did you catch any price interest points on the GJ move today? Cheers...

Hi FWR,
cheers pal.

Yes I traded early Asia and little after and got my needs of what I seek.
Hard to talk about it in a structured way as I am a discretionary trader just feeling the market mechanics and its momentum, watching others take TP and price returning or continuing
- all done by bigger traders than us usual suspects here in retail. So we try and follow what they are doing and when they are likely to do it. imho.

Each to their own, I do not recommend my style, I trade around the edge/blade of a sharp sword . But I can grasp what is happening and then what to do when it doesn't happen.

To that end I traded in both directions today when the market was ranging (the range is much wider than where I came in or got out, but my area suited me).
It will be hard to look at a static chart with stationary candles and get a feel for what I do or did.
I trade as the market is moving with candle shifts, intracandle delta swapovers, and those points of interest where I reckon "other" traders will either
enter new trades OR exit (TP or SL)

This has to happen for the market to move imo, but I can't automate it or even the time that it may be happening.

The trades look soft on a chart. There was more in the end but the market was switching around so I just TP.
But the trades are what I wanted, and I doubled my TP later, though with one trade still currently in there swinging (in DD).

Just over half an hour to Franky Open, price is up near a BRN again, will Franky fake'n'flip it OR will London.
We wait & see.

.
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  • #10,524
  • Aug 20, 2024 1:45am Aug 20, 2024 1:45am
Quoting TimeTells
...But the chart below indicates so far (to me. that is) that the common market mechanics will again be in play today... {image}
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Return to the PP is not random. There is ca 70% change price gets there every day.
Same applies to weekly PP.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #10,525
  • Aug 20, 2024 2:08am Aug 20, 2024 2:08am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} {image}
Return to the PP is not random. There is ca 70% change price gets there every day.
Same applies to weekly PP.

Cheers Mandarin,

re my chart comment
"probably just random (again)"

I was taking the p!ss ie I was joking
I doubt there is anything random in our final market mechanic moves (just that the weaving path taken in between can give that impression, to some)

all the best, sir
  • #10,526
  • Aug 20, 2024 3:39am Aug 20, 2024 3:39am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi FWR, cheers pal. Yes I traded early Asia and little after and got my needs of what I seek. Hard to talk about it in a structured way as I am a discretionary trader just feeling the market mechanics and its momentum, watching others take TP and price returning or continuing - all done by bigger traders than us usual suspects here in retail. So we try and follow what they are doing and when they are likely to do it. imho. Each to their own, I do not recommend my style, I trade around the edge/blade of a sharp sword ....
No worries TT, and nice work.
I get your style as am similar in Asia session. Traded AUD/JPY today, similar moves. Only took shorts, though.
Yen of late is fabulous. AJ has been giving off Gold like pips recently. Nice for a change.
Cheers.
  • #10,527
  • Aug 20, 2024 4:06am Aug 20, 2024 4:06am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote}
No worries TT, and nice work. I get your style as am similar in Asia session.
Traded AUD/JPY today, similar moves. Only took shorts, though. Yen of late is fabulous.
AJ has been giving off Gold like pips recently. Nice for a change. Cheers.

Hi FWR,
Nice work.
And absolutely true that Yen of late is fabulous.
I will go back soon and review September last year for any reduced volatilty after August which is the traditional Summer Holiday period in the Nth Hemisphere.
If not and its all fundamentals () then we might get a continued terrific run.
Hope it doesn't change from what it is now

I haven't looked at AJ for quite some time,
But the mechanics look all the same to me from how I would look at it.
The stations / targets are all there and seem to attract some liquidity interest to & from (who knows).
For what it's worth.

All the best


.
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  • #10,528
  • Aug 20, 2024 5:09am Aug 20, 2024 5:09am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi FWR, Nice work. And absolutely true that Yen of late is fabulous. I will go back soon and review September last year for any reduced volatilty after August which is the traditional Summer Holiday period in the Nth Hemisphere. If not and its all fundamentals () then we might get a continued terrific run. Hope it doesn't change from what it is now I haven't looked at AJ for quite some time, But the mechanics look all the same to me from how I woulto d look at it. The stations / targets are all there and seem to attract some...
TT, considering I focus on AUD a lot the AJ pair is easy to trade as well. GJ is ok but I hate the spread and lack of margin that AJ and AU give. Most yen pairs look identical - Singapore / Yen for example. CJ, and EJ are also useful for confirmation.

More interest rate rises for Yen perhaps so things changing? Written earlier in the year, see below.
This is an interesting read: https://www.cfr.org/blog/japanese-bi...-curve-control
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  • #10,529
  • Aug 21, 2024 3:41am Aug 21, 2024 3:41am
It's not a coincidence as most yen pairs will follow what is happening with USDJPY as it is the second most traded currency pair after EURUSD

I have posted this before, useful to have next to your monitor:


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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,530
  • Aug 22, 2024 4:39am Aug 22, 2024 4:39am
Every pair will have its own movements & momentum
(while the ultimate mechanics are the same, imho).

However, again just imo, the movements to & from AND between stations is where I feel extra liquidity might be added (as new orders) OR removed (as TP or SL).
Both could affect the next movement of price imo.

So I try and just observe current momentum in the uptakes and down swings along the way to and from the target stations.

I don’t really feel I support the narrative of trends as such, at all, that's just me (it's maybe just another forex word),
but I do acknowledge the concept of Swings (on and over multiple timeframes, each of our own trade choosing).

So why just 14p in this trade below?

Well my day was pretty much over already in Asia before that recent Franky -London push
(and the last push up on the back of weak news data at the half-hour?)

I already had +61p locked in the a/c so took a punt that the last push up past the BRN up to yesterday’s London Open, and then the return back to the BRN000 line might also see a flip further back down to the Week Open Line (my mental SL was back above the prior London Open) and got out at +75 TP for the end of my day.

Again, all this is just to post how I will observe the market mechanics in-play, stations to station & targets and WHERE liquidity might adjust for a pricing move.

Sometimes market trade aggregations at inflection points (boundaries & intersections) will keep price very tight, and at those zones a breakout might then be imminent (in my mind). All to be traded with great care of course. Wider "swing traders" can see these quite clearly, while I trade smaller station swings.

So the market can now move price where they want, and to wherever they want now (no fomo from me), even hundreds of pips if they wish
(probably New York though when I am asleep, who knows). Back tomorrow.

Trade safe, trade well, I’m out for the day.

.
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  • #10,531
  • Aug 22, 2024 6:38am Aug 22, 2024 6:38am
Quoting TimeTells
Every pair will have its own movements & momentum (while the ultimate mechanics are the same, imho). However, again just imo, the movements to & from AND between stations is where I feel extra liquidity might be added (as new orders) OR removed (as TP or SL). Both could affect the next movement of price imo. So I try and just observe current momentum in the uptakes and down swings along the way to and from the target stations. I don’t really feel I support the narrative of trends as such, at all, that's just me (it's maybe just another forex word),...
Great stuff TT. Lots of tips on your chart for an attentive and patient trader. And have a great day out - if you're taking the wife then remember to take your wallet
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #10,532
  • Aug 22, 2024 4:27pm Aug 22, 2024 4:27pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote}
Great stuff TT. Lots of tips on your chart for an attentive and patient trader.
And have a great day out - if you're taking the wife then remember to take your wallet

Hahaaa, cheers turnip.
  • #10,533
  • Aug 22, 2024 8:09pm Aug 22, 2024 8:09pm
I know I keep saying this, so apologies (honestly)
But I am wishing to stop showing charts, as they are NOT uploaded to encourage traders to trade, at all (or trade like I do),
Plus I would enjoy seeing OTHER traders charts. There is no ONE way to trade our markets or one way that is BEST (imho)

But I was wishing to push further with what George () showed us all years ago, which he called the market mechanics
(TARGETS, TARGETS, TARGETS and again, nothing new really - see Wyckoff et al)
I feel I just wish to show new traders another (nothing new though) way of trading in our markets, and how WE could trade for ourselves that is ONLY best for US.

I'm probably more (who knows) trading like an older-time pit trader (tho I wasn't around then ),
By following (perceived) market order AREAS, but obviously not actual screamed in the pit orders
(I have no data on orders at all other than the current market movement)
Done via (horizontal) price moves at and around potential liquidity changes (ie an influx of new traders, and maybe a removal of old trades TP & maybe SL)
Who knows


The GJ market moved 47 pips so far. What can we do inside a range using potential swing points of interest (I mean interest to "other" traders, I just follow it all)
How much can we snag in the mix.
Up to each trader.
Trade with no FOMO imo. And no need for greed, there is always more potential repetitive trades ahead later.
But not for me now. I'm done & out and will be back for the hour leading into Franky and then London.

Trade safe, trade well all


.
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  • #10,534
  • Aug 22, 2024 9:53pm Aug 22, 2024 9:53pm
Quoting TimeTells
Tôi biết tôi cứ nói thế này, nên thành thật xin lỗi nhé (nhưng tôi muốn ngừng cho các bạn xem biểu đồ, v́ chúng KHÔNG được tải lên để khuyến khích các nhà giao dịch giao dịch chút nào (hoặc giao dịch như tôi), Thêm vào đó, tôi muốn xem biểu đồ của các nhà giao dịch KHÁC. Không có MỘT cách nào để giao dịch trên thị trường của...
Hi Pete,
Don't give up haha, feel free to express your opinion. I like it.
Will GJ come back for Asia open?
Have a nice trading day!
Cheers!
Jesse
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  • #10,535
  • Aug 22, 2024 10:47pm Aug 22, 2024 10:47pm
Quoting JesseNguyen
{quote}
Hi Pete,
Don't give up haha, feel free to express your opinion. I like it.
Will GJ come back for Asia open?
Have a nice trading day!
Cheers! Jesse {image}

Cheers Jesse,

My charts are an open book, stations & targets.

That's why I like to see other traders charts too.

GJ has made its high & low for the day it now seems (edit: the Asia part of the day hahaa),
after Mr U did his JPY red news talk earlier ().

If the larger market has new sellers trapped at the very low, it usually makes them sweat a bit before further fully defining the whole day.

GJ is at 120 pips at the moment for the day so far. We might see what they do with price leading into the hour before Franky.
Then will Franky do a fake'n'flip for us (or will London). Should be a bit of fun coming (before New York maybe, who knows).

Here's a different look, instead of always my the 15m.
The 1DY
Will the recent run down continue now its crossed the 200ema, or will price stay within its ranging. Not our choice, to force (just observe imho).

all the best, sir.

.
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  • #10,536
  • Aug 23, 2024 12:21am Aug 23, 2024 12:21am
Yes, OK, I know, another chart hahaaa

But we can always look from a different perspecitive. An observation/assesssment chart and not a trade chart.


Splitting the swings up mathematically, but with my only real fascination here at the 50%.
In my view its still all market mechanics and what may be happening inside the coffers of those that can move such things.

For example, on the chart, it only tells me that any traders still open in the market.
Eithers as buyers OR sellers
(and excluding any traders that already took their profit or tapped out on a loss)

That we now have BOTH buyers & sellers trapped at a mid-point of the latest 15m major swing (asia hi/low)

So with Franky 45mins away how will any new incoming orders, whatever direction they are, affect where price is now.
It's another area of time compression (Jankovsky) in that who is sitting pretty and who is sweating on their current open trades.

Who comes in (buy OR sell), and/or who gets out (takes their TP or coughs up their SL) can push price one way or the other.
We can guess which way price will go (up or down …. OR ….. the good ‘ol up AND down market move )

We could watch & see and take advantage of a situation should it occur.
Or just guess (and hope) again.
Each to own. One WILL be correct in their buy or their sell.

Franky Open - a fun part of the day imo (AND the leadup).

.
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  • #10,537
  • Aug 23, 2024 12:32am Aug 23, 2024 12:32am
Quoting TimeTells
Yes, OK, I know, another chart hahaaa But we can always look from a different perspecitive. An observation/assesssment chart and not a trade chart. Splitting the swings up mathematically, but with my only real fascination here at the 50%. In my view its still all market mechanics and what may be happening inside the coffers of those that can move such things. For example, on the chart, it only tells me that any traders still open in the market. Eithers as buyers OR sellers (and excluding any traders...
Great stuff Pete
  • #10,538
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:16am Aug 23, 2024 1:16am
Cheers Andy, much appreciated pal
  • #10,539
  • Aug 23, 2024 2:23am Aug 23, 2024 2:23am
Hiiiii,
This is my first time learning and understanding waveforms, there will definitely be many mistakes, I look forward to receiving comments from the masters
Congratulations!
Jesse,
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  • #10,540
  • Aug 23, 2024 7:57am Aug 23, 2024 7:57am
Quoting TimeTells
I know I keep saying this, so apologies (honestly) But I am wishing to stop showing charts, as they are NOT uploaded to encourage traders to trade, at all (or trade like I do), Plus I would enjoy seeing OTHER traders charts. There is no ONE way to trade our markets or one way that is BEST (imho)
I'll be happy to share a chart in your excellent discussion thread, TT.

Here is a something I've been working on lately using M5 NQ bars and Williams %R as a reference indicator. My work schedule has been very full lately so I have traded rarely since early July. I did this one today. The Williams %R is something I learned from the early system in rockypoint's excellent thread. He used a 16 period. I have played with 16 as well as 24 and 8. The indicator is not as important as the M5 bars. For now I am studying this as a "long only" system and limit profits and losses to a 1:1 scalp.

I hope to be back trading regularly by early October at the latest. For now I am lucky if I am able to place one live trade per week.

Good trading to you and all our friends here at FF!
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