Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,421
- Mar 11, 2024 12:24am Mar 11, 2024 12:24am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
- #3,422
- Mar 13, 2024 7:01am Mar 13, 2024 7:01am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
It looks like Nat Gas wants to fill the gap before testing 50 EMA.... Some liquidity found below.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,423
- Mar 14, 2024 1:42pm Mar 14, 2024 1:42pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
It looks like Nat Gas wants to fill the gap before testing 50 EMA.... Some liquidity found below. {image} {image}
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,424
- Mar 19, 2024 6:49pm Mar 19, 2024 6:49pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Time is matured for Gold and CHF move down and JPN moves up... I have been saying this almost for two years. 
Negative swap will kill your account before it finally moves in your direction. This is the reason why this WCU strategy is not practical in reality. Even if you have a positive swap like my Gold and CHF positions, it may take several years before you finally makes money from it.
Negative swap will kill your account before it finally moves in your direction. This is the reason why this WCU strategy is not practical in reality. Even if you have a positive swap like my Gold and CHF positions, it may take several years before you finally makes money from it. Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,425
- Mar 20, 2024 8:08am Mar 20, 2024 8:08am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Fake after fake ..... What looks obvious is almost always a fake. Do you think this is now bearish? Really? 
They intentionally trap weaker traders. This is their daily job. That's why day trading is so difficult and it's a loser's game...... 
They intentionally trap weaker traders. This is their daily job. That's why day trading is so difficult and it's a loser's game...... Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,426
- Edited Mar 21, 2024 3:30am Mar 20, 2024 11:41am | Edited Mar 21, 2024 3:30am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Fake after fake ..... What looks obvious is almost always a fake. Do you think this is now bearish? Really?
How many sellers would have been stuck by now? Every odd is against you in day trading indeed.
EDIT: That was the end of the story and they called a day....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,427
- Apr 11, 2024 1:31am Apr 11, 2024 1:31am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,428
- Apr 18, 2024 10:54am Apr 18, 2024 10:54am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
At the moment, Nat Gas is not preferable to day trading. It's very choppy and ADR is very low. It's also expected to move within a narrow range for weeks or months further. Actually, summer is not very good season for NG day trading. I am trying GBPAUD as a day trading vehicle for the time being. Without trends, it's very difficult for small traders to make money in the market. 
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,429
- Edited 11:29am May 3, 2024 11:08am | Edited 11:29am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
{quote} Bought the spread hours ago (betting to spread narrowing). Purchasing price: -0.243. Risk is calculated. {image}
One more thing made me worried is May-June spread. It dumped at last minute. It could happen again to Jun-July spread. That's why I decided not to wait further.
I am still holding Nov-Dec spread and I expect it would work until the end of this year.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,430
- Edited 11:28am May 3, 2024 11:11am | Edited 11:28am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
{quote} I wasn't very luck to this summer spread trading. Betting against seasonality is always difficult.... I exited Jun-July spread with near breakeven. Seeing daily chart looks somewhat positive, its spread may become narrower some more but I don't want to take any further risk as end of this month is the contract expiration. Holding till last month is not very good idea as volatility may go against you very quickly. {image} {image} One thing made me worried is May-June spread. It dumped at last minute. It could happen again to Jun-July spread....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,431
- May 3, 2024 11:16am May 3, 2024 11:16am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Anyway, I have proved I can make money consistently from natural gas spread trading and I can control its risk. That's good and enough.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,432
- May 3, 2024 11:25am May 3, 2024 11:25am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Time is matured for Gold and CHF move down and JPN moves up... I have been saying this almost for two years.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,433
- May 6, 2024 9:22am May 6, 2024 9:22am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Looks good and feels good, obviously nat gas is bullish now. However, chasers need to be punished before. Mr. Market hates chasers.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,434
- May 7, 2024 7:16am May 7, 2024 7:16am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
July-August spread. It's tempting and I bought a small position.... Nat gas is coming out of a panic mode and therefore it may work I hope.... 
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,435
- May 7, 2024 7:23am May 7, 2024 7:23am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
July-August 2025 spread is even more interesting..........
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,436
- May 7, 2024 7:32am May 7, 2024 7:32am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
I am a long time huge fan of 200 EMA and 50 EMA. Recently I made a simple 200 EMA based strategy based on multiple lower time frames. It seems 200 EMA works better than 50 EMA at lower time frames. Stable trend usually starts from 200 EMA. Although opportunities don't comes very often, it works nicely and stably on day trading. And it's pretty easy. Let me talk about it later once I find some free time..... 
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,437
- Edited 6:46am May 14, 2024 6:20am | Edited 6:46am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
July-August spread. It's tempting and I bought a small position.... Nat gas is coming out of a panic mode and therefore it may work I hope....
If you can be mentally humble enough to give up day trading dream, you can see some decent way to make money........
For 99.99% of people, day trading is just a loser's game.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,438
- May 14, 2024 9:04am May 14, 2024 9:04am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Sold Jun-July spread @ -0.215. Storage is still massive and it would take some time before they consume all the excessive glut. Even if I can lose some money in this trading, I feel more comfortable when my position agrees seasonality direction. As its expiration is approaching, I have to close this position no later than late next week.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,439
- May 23, 2024 8:26am May 23, 2024 8:26am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
Sold Aug-Sep spread @ 0.058 and Bought Dec-Jan spread @ -0.258. Margins are both dirt cheap.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,440
- May 23, 2024 8:32am May 23, 2024 8:32am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,091 Posts
{quote} Honestly, I am discouraged and disappointed to WCU strategy by seeing recent extreme movement of Gold and Japanese Yen. Trying to pick top/bottom is really a stupid and dangerous idea..... I will not pursue WCU strategy any more after closing current positions. It has some potentials but I cannot say this is a wining strategy in the long run.
I'm stuck in Gold ....... I have blown my small MT4 forex accounts multiple times due to Gold.... Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci