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How to read the market

  • #141
  • Mar 27, 2024 4:33pm Mar 27, 2024 4:33pm
Quoting zalzil123
Hi everyone Just want to finish USDJPY first Then I will come back to every comment of yours. lets have the monthly UJ chart on the 24/03 {image}
What.. comments?

Attached Image
The subconscious mind is in control, not the conscious mind.
  • #142
  • Mar 27, 2024 4:44pm Mar 27, 2024 4:44pm
Quoting zalzil123
I hope everything is clear now. lets go back to Fact NO2 If the trend is down Yes what will happen The pair will go up till it hits the high of the day Can you see it in the chart we started upwards till we hit the high of the day clearing all sell stops of the 3 monthly candles and then ??? Then the pair will start falling till it hits the low of the day Exactly from 1.51966 all the way to 151.022 I hope you got the point now Tip for everyone :- What will happen after the pair formed the high and low of the day??? It should go back to Equilibrium...
Whats with the 20 examples in that single Chart screenshot of mine where your "easy and obvious" plays dont work out?
Also how come NONE of those Candles went back to "Equilibrium"?

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Please enlighten me master.


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The subconscious mind is in control, not the conscious mind.
  • #143
  • Mar 27, 2024 4:46pm Mar 27, 2024 4:46pm
I am enclosing the DJ30 Chart

Have a look at it

Try to remember FACT NO1 & FACT NO2

What do you think ??

Tomorrow are we heading up or down ????

Take care everyone
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  • #144
  • Mar 27, 2024 5:07pm Mar 27, 2024 5:07pm
Whats with the 20 examples in that single Chart screenshot of mine where your "easy and obvious" plays dont work out?
Also how come NONE of those Candles went back to "Equilibrium"?
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  • #145
  • Mar 27, 2024 6:08pm Mar 27, 2024 6:08pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Hey, I have an even easier way. Forget the complicated tracking of trends etc. All you have to to is make one choice. UP or DOWN. That simple. Any monkey could do it.
Hi OutThere

Will, I believe you have arrived at the most profitable trading strategy I use, seriously.

Fear is your enemy, profitability is as easy as drawing a line in the sand, go short when it crosses it with a very tight stop and Zero profit target till the move is done. It’s the holding that makes the money, the short stop protects your account. All you need is a 40% win rate and patience.

Its so bloody obvious, but very few have the mindset to make it work because they waste time analysing charts because they think it’s important instead of releasing their fears of accepting losing trades.

Hint- try it with Bitcoin
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #146
  • Mar 27, 2024 6:22pm Mar 27, 2024 6:22pm
Winning is all about Mindset.
It starts with changing this.

Be fearless when in profit and fearful when in draw down.

If you can change your mindset to this thought process, you will be a bloody champion.

Thats profitable trading in a nutshell, analysts are stupid monkey’s.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #147
  • Mar 27, 2024 6:48pm Mar 27, 2024 6:48pm
Quoting RickM
Winning is all about Mindset. It starts with changing this. Be fearless when in profit and fearful when in draw down. If you can change your mindset to this thought process, you will be a bloody champion. Thats profitable trading in a nutshell, analysts are stupid monkey’s.
Mindset has nothing to do with profitability in trading. You can have the perfect mindset, but if your strategy doesn't work, it doesn't work. Trading is not some "spiritual" entity, it is simply learning what works and when it works, understanding the instrument you are trading, and having knowledge or what causes certain things to happen.

Saying winning is all about mindset is like being told as a child "You can be whatever you want to be!" and that just isn't so....a 300lb man may really, really want to be a professional jockey, but it's not going to happen. You can have the resolute mindset of a US Navy Seal, but if you're color blind, you will never be a Seal.

You have to develop a profitable strategy to be profitable in trading, no matter what instrument you are trading. There is no way around that, and to believe otherwise is simply random gambling, like betting a color on roulette. Now, conquering fear or greed or anxiety will certainly help you to become MORE profitable, but those alone will never make a single deposit into your bank account.

Sincerely,

A very profitable, chart analyzing stupid monkey.....
  • #148
  • Mar 27, 2024 6:55pm Mar 27, 2024 6:55pm
Quoting Onra
{quote} IBM, 1980... I would say nothing changed... One minor downtrend, one movement back up again. An example of reverse to the mean; buying and holding for one year wouldn't have made much difference. So why are you in the market; if you're not looking for profits..? Or do you just focus on the loss of other participants?
ok if that all u see. study markets teaches bout persons. studying persons teaches bout history. study history u learn not only recite or pledge or follow. be stubborn or try to learn. try this...

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protein for breakfast !
  • #149
  • Mar 27, 2024 7:05pm Mar 27, 2024 7:05pm
Quoting RickM
Winning is all about Mindset. It starts with changing this. Be fearless when in profit and fearful when in draw down. If you can change your mindset to this thought process, you will be a bloody champion. Thats profitable trading in a nutshell, analysts are stupid monkey’s.
so u use a !hand-me-down-strategy! do u? most around do. fearless fearful greedy frugal .... make a good country western song .... !!In the morning i was fearlessss, at midday i was frugal, in the afternoon i was doubtful but in the evening after the sun set the darkness crept in and i could not be fearless!!. i have a better idea - just relax and do the better than best research you can. being a self-stimulated knob is great 2 fool ur friends but dont work in life. not not trading ... speculating. huge difference.
protein for breakfast !
  • #150
  • Mar 27, 2024 7:07pm Mar 27, 2024 7:07pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Mindset has nothing to do with profitability in trading. You can have the perfect mindset, but if your strategy doesn't work, it doesn't work. Trading is not some "spiritual" entity, it is simply learning what works and when it works, understanding the instrument you are trading, and having knowledge or what causes certain things to happen. Saying winning is all about mindset is like being told as a child "You can be whatever you want to be!" and that just isn't so....a 300lb man may really, really want to be a professional jockey, but it's...
i guess u gotts to make room 4 persons who have much 2 learn. worlds fullofemnow. have fun.
protein for breakfast !
  • #151
  • Mar 27, 2024 7:09pm Mar 27, 2024 7:09pm
reading a market is like learning to see that !!whats yours aint yours!! .... money and all to boot! stubbornness is the currency of fools. DOOOONG!
protein for breakfast !
  • #152
  • Edited 7:48pm Mar 27, 2024 7:30pm | Edited 7:48pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Mindset has nothing to do with profitability in trading. You can have the perfect mindset, but if your strategy doesn't work, it doesn't work. Trading is not some "spiritual" entity, it is simply learning what works and when it works, understanding the instrument you are trading, and having knowledge or what causes certain things to happen. Saying winning is all about mindset is like being told as a child "You can be whatever you want to be!" and that just isn't so....a 300lb man may really, really want to be a professional jockey, but it's...
Hi Moneymaker

If I gave 100 traders a profitable strategy, why is it only 10% of them become profitable.

If you gave away your system to 100 traders, how many of them do you think would become profitable.

Very few if any.

Therefore it’s not the strategy that matters, it’s you.

PS. I used to be a stupid monkey, now I am free to spend that time with people I love.

PS. You actually can be any person you want to be. I was told after getting my girl friend pregnant and getting married at 21 I would always be living week by week for the rest of my life. My parents thought I was a loser ( my father cried and begged me not to get married. ) so I left New Zealand to start a new life with a positive mindset and prove them wrong. 30 years later I own 3 million dollar home and have an annual travel budget for world travelling of over $100,000 a year.
You can be anyone you want to be, but first you have to change your mindset from a loser to a winner.
Winning traders have that mindset, the strategy is secondary.

PSPS - myself and my beautiful wife in Finland for Christmas, a winning mindset got me here because I followed the positive process
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #153
  • Mar 27, 2024 8:07pm Mar 27, 2024 8:07pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moneymaker If I gave 100 traders a profitable strategy, why is it only 10% of them become profitable. If you gave away your system to 100 traders, how many of them do you think would become profitable. Very few if any. Therefore it’s not the strategy that matters, it’s you. PS. I used to be a stupid monkey, now I am free to spend that time with people I love. PS. You actually can be any person you want to be. I was told after getting my girl friend pregnant and getting married at 21 I would always be living week by week for the rest of...
Handsome couple.
Since you are so rich, can you spare 10K so I can buy a coffee?
  • #154
  • Mar 27, 2024 8:57pm Mar 27, 2024 8:57pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Handsome couple. Since you are so rich, can you spare 10K so I can buy a coffee?
But seriously OutThere

Why don’t you do it tonight on a Demo account before moving to a live chart trading 0.01 lots so the risk of loss is only small.

Pick a line in the sand which could be any moderate size MA you like and trade the any breakout provided the breakout candle is strong and has no wicks (or very small) attached towards the end of the candle facing the trend. Stop loss is only a few ticks away with no take profit set.

Go on, have a go but you must STAY in till a failed low or high and
NO PROFIT taking till then OR I will come around and kick your arse.

This strategy will train you to become a fearless trader when in profit.


As usual, this is not financial advice so please consider all possible outcomes become you undertake this process.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #155
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:02pm Mar 27, 2024 9:02pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} But seriously OutThere Why don’t you do it tonight on a Demo account before moving to a live chart trading 0.01 lots so the risk of loss is only small. Pick a line in the sand which could be any moderate size MA you like and trade the any breakout provided the breakout candle is strong and has no wicks (or very small) attached towards the end of the candle facing the trend. Stop loss is only a few ticks away with no take profit set. Go on, have a go but you must STAY in till a failed low or high and NO PROFIT taking till then OR I will come...
Sounded like fun until you said Stop loss.

You know there are a million ways to skin the cat.
  • #156
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:30pm Mar 27, 2024 9:30pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Sounded like fun until you said Stop loss. You know there are a million ways to skin the cat.
Why are you afraid to take a stop loss?

What’s a few pips here or there if you snag a 69 pip runner 20 minutes later.
Meanwhile fearful thinking OutThere is still hoping for a miracle 1 hour later.

A famous trading saying goes “why are you afraid of losing hundreds now when you can instead be making Thousands soon after”.

Why does taking a small loss scare you so much?
And as I used to skin possums in my teenage years, actually there is only a couple of ways to skin them and one is wrong.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #157
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:40pm Mar 27, 2024 9:40pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Why are you afraid to take a stop loss? What’s a few pips here or there if you snag a 69 pip runner 20 minutes later. Meanwhile fearful thinking OutThere is still hoping for a miracle 1 hour later. A famous trading saying goes “why are you afraid of losing hundreds now when you can instead be making Thousands soon after”. Why does taking a small loss scare you so much? And as I used to skin possums in my teenage years, actually there is only a couple of ways to skin them and one is wrong.
I don't need SL. That is why.
There are a ton of other things I don't have a use for in life as well that others can't live without.
Sent you clarification already. Is your PM broken? lol

"Meanwhile fearful thinking OutThere is still hoping for a miracle 1 hour later."

Just that statement alone shows you are on a different planet than I.
  • #158
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:51pm Mar 27, 2024 9:51pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moneymaker If I gave 100 traders a profitable strategy, why is it only 10% of them become profitable. If you gave away your system to 100 traders, how many of them do you think would become profitable. Very few if any. Therefore it’s not the strategy that matters, it’s you. PS. I used to be a stupid monkey, now I am free to spend that time with people I love. PS. You actually can be any person you want to be. I was told after getting my girl friend pregnant and getting married at 21 I would always be living week by week for the rest of...
Congrats Rick. Good for you in your successs. I mean that.

Survivorship bias = beware of it. Just keep what you have.

Cheers...
  • #159
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:59pm Mar 27, 2024 9:59pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moneymaker If I gave 100 traders a profitable strategy, why is it only 10% of them become profitable. If you gave away your system to 100 traders, how many of them do you think would become profitable. Very few if any. Therefore it’s not the strategy that matters, it’s you. PS. I used to be a stupid monkey, now I am free to spend that time with people I love. PS. You actually can be any person you want to be. I was told after getting my girl friend pregnant and getting married at 21 I would always be living week by week for the rest of...
I am very proud for you and your success in life. A beautiful and loving family is much more valuable than any material wealth, and I applaud you on that. But I think you are actually shortchanging yourself. I don't believe it was your change in mindset as a young man that afforded you the opportunity for success, but your personal drive and ambition. You were obviously goal-oriented and although you mentioned your parents considered you a loser, I am confident that you never actually felt that way yourself, and the success-driven life was not to change YOUR mindset, but the opinions of those around you.

I see that more in people close to our age; that goal-oriented, success-driven mentality. If you notice, forums are filled with people wanting you to give them your system, to teach them what and when to do it, but like you said, many will take a perfectly good system and feel obligated to tweak it and "make it their own" to the point it is no longer viable. They want the destination without putting in the effort of the journey.

I have been trading for decades, which has allowed me to retire at 55 years old rather than the 62-67 years of age that is more common. I taught myself how to trade options the way that I do, using a strategy I developed. As far as every book out there and every chat group I belong to, I am one of the very few that trades that way. I developed this strategy in order to make as much money as possible in as short of a time period as possible because MY definition of a "successful/profitable trader" did not fit the mold of just making some extra money; I wanted the freedom of a computer and internet being the only limitations of where I live or visit or trade. Which gets me back to the goal-oriented, success-driven idea.

But I believe in trading you have to be profitable/successful BEFORE you can begin to control greed and fear, because if you aren't successful or profitable, you don't actually experience them to the point of them having negative consequences. You can change that mindset of greed only when greed was painful. Not a few pips or even a few hundred dollars, but REAL pain. Only then, in my opinion, can you get a handle on it because you know from past experience it has cost you money. Same with fear, although to me, fear is more connected with confidence than anything else. And confidence in yourself and your system is, in my mind, the ONLY thing that will help you become a trader with little emotions. The first time I had a big loss with options, I lost roughly $38K literally overnight because of one analyst's negative comments....I stayed in bed for two days. Then my fiancée said "Why are you making such a big deal about this? You've made more than that in a couple of days before!", and it was that confidence from her and the confidence I had that changed the way I have traded every since emotionally. That was my mindset change, but without confidence in my system (and myself), I never would have realized it.

I still just think that the mindset/emotional aspect of trading can only happen if you first have a successful strategy that you have 100% confidence in. I believe that is the problem with all the traders that would not be profitable if given a profitable system, they have not done the work and suffered those hours late at night themselves, kind of like giving a car to a young person; most will not truly appreciate it and take care of it because they did not have the sweat-equity invested in it like they would if they worked for it and bought it themselves.

Again, I sincerely congratulate you and your success. I know it didn't happen without hard work and sacrifices from both you and your family. You should be very proud.
  • #160
  • Mar 27, 2024 10:00pm Mar 27, 2024 10:00pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Mindset has nothing to do with profitability in trading. You can have the perfect mindset, but if your strategy doesn't work, it doesn't work. Trading is not some "spiritual" entity, it is simply learning what works and when it works, understanding the instrument you are trading, and having knowledge or what causes certain things to happen. Saying winning is all about mindset is like being told as a child "You can be whatever you want to be!" and that just isn't so....a 300lb man may really, really want to be a professional jockey, but it's...
Yes. Mindset alone isn't the same as mindset plus method and many other variables not easily labelled. Knowledge, determination, focus, needs, wants, available funds, other nuances of one's situation etc... Context.
Focussing on winners I agree with Rick. I just can't celebrate the better loser way of trading.

Cheers...
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