Special Thread: COT Data Analysis & Trading Signals

Based on the Non-Commercial COT data as of March 19, 2024, here are the three lists of currency pairs categorized by their net bias:

Pairs with Bullish Net Bias:
1. GBPAUD
2. GBPCAD
3. GBPCHF
4. GBPJPY
5. GBPNZD
6. GBPUSD
7. EURGBP
8. EURUSD
9. NZDCAD
10. NZDCHF
11. NZDJPY
12. USDZAR
13. XAUUSD
14. XAGUSD
15. SP500
16. WTI

Pairs with Bearish Net Bias:
1. AUDCAD
2. AUDCHF
3. AUDJPY
4. AUDNZD
5. AUDUSD
6. CADCHF
7. CADJPY
8. CHFJPY
9. EURAUD
10. EURCAD
11. EURCHF
12. EURJPY
13. EURNZD
14. USDCAD
15. USDCHF
16. USDJPY
17. BRENT
18. NAS100

Pairs with Neutral or Mixed Bias:
1. NZDUSD

Please note that these categorizations are based on the Non-Commercial COT data alone and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as technical and fundamental analysis, to make informed trading decisions.

Pairs with Strongest Net Bearish Bias:

1. AUDJPY
2. AUDNZD
3. AUDUSD
4. AUDCHF
5. AUDCAD
6. EURJPY
7. EURNZD
8. EURAUD
9. EURCAD

Pairs with Strongest Net Bullish Bias:

1. GBPJPY
2. GBPNZD
3. GBPCHF
4. EURGBP
5. GBPUSD
6. GBPAUD
7. GBPCAD
8. EURUSD
9. XAUUSD

Finally a good thread/content that explain COT analysis! I tried once but was overcomplicated for me. Already sub your thread. Thanks man!

Non-Commercial COT Analysis: AUDJPY - actual COT data for (March 19, 2024)
Net Bias:

1. AUDJPY: Exhibits a Bearish net bias based on Non-Commercial COT positioning. This represents a continuation of the previous week's sentiment.

Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. AUD: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bearish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Short bias with net short position of 107,538 contracts
   2. Changes in Positioning: Increased net short position by 16,698 contracts compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Increased open interest

2. JPY: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bearish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Short bias with net short position of 116,012 contracts
   2. Changes in Positioning: Increased net short position by 13,690 contracts compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Increased open interest

Implications for AUDJPY:

1. Potential Direction: The combined sentiment from individual currencies suggests AUDJPY may move in a bearish direction. The strong bearish bias in both AUD and JPY indicates potential for downside pressure on the pair. However, the relatively stronger bearish positioning in AUD compared to JPY could lead to AUD underperformance, and thus, AUDJPY weakness.

Non-Commercial COT Analysis: GBPJPY - actual COT data for (March 19, 2024)
Net Bias:

1. GBPJPY: Exhibits a Bullish net bias based on Non-Commercial COT positioning. This represents a continuation of the previous week's sentiment.

Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. GBP: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bullish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Long bias with net long position of 53,200 contracts
   2. Changes in Positioning: Decreased net long position by 16,851 contracts compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Decreased open interest

2. JPY: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bearish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Short bias with net short position of 116,012 contracts
   2. Changes in Positioning: Increased net short position by 13,690 contracts compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Increased open interest

Implications for GBPJPY:

1. Potential Direction: The combined sentiment from individual currencies suggests GBPJPY may move in a bullish direction. The strong bearish bias in JPY could lead to yen weakness, while the bullish bias in GBP could lead to pound strength, both supportive of GBPJPY upside.

Non-Commercial COT Data | as of (March 19, 2024)
Weekly Net Positions and Changes with Open Interest Trends for Currencies, Commodities, and Indices

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Comprehensive analysis of CHFJPY | as of March 19, 2024

Net Bias:

1. CHFJPY: The net bias can be determined by comparing the net positions of CHF and JPY. CHF has a net position of -20,500, indicating a bearish bias, while JPY has a net position of -115,812, indicating a stronger bearish bias. This suggests a bullish bias for the CHFJPY pair.

Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. CHF: Non-commercial traders are predominantly bearish on CHF. The net position is short, with a decrease in position compared to the previous week. The open interest trend is decreasing, with a total open interest of 71,545.
2. JPY: Non-commercial traders are predominantly bearish on JPY. The net position is short, with a decrease in position compared to the previous week. The open interest trend is decreasing, with a total open interest of 302,500.

Implications for CHFJPY:

1. Potential Direction: The combined sentiment from individual currencies suggests CHFJPY may move upwards due to the stronger bearish sentiment on JPY compared to CHF.
2. Volatility: There could be potential for upward spikes in CHFJPY due to the bearish positioning of non-commercial traders on JPY.
3. Market Depth: The total open interest for CHF and JPY indicates high liquidity, which could impact CHFJPY’s price movements and trade execution.

Trading Recommendations: Given the bullish bias for CHFJPY, consider long positions on this pair. However, it’s important to integrate this COT data analysis with other technical and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive view.

Please note that this analysis is based on COT data and does not take into account any changes in the market conditions after March 19, 2024. Always stay updated with the latest data.

Analyzing Open Interest in COT Reports for Forex Trading Insights

Here’s a comprehensive guide to help you understand and leverage this data:

1. Overview of COT Reports: COT reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. It’s a valuable resource for seeing the sentiment of large institutional traders.
   
2. Relevance of Total Open Interest: Total open interest represents the total number of contracts, long or short, that are yet to be settled. A high open interest indicates more activity and liquidity in the market, which means it’s easier to execute trades.
   
3. Changes in Open Interest: If open interest is increasing, new money is flowing into the market, suggesting that the current trend is gaining momentum. Conversely, decreasing open interest shows that the market is liquidating, and implies that the prevailing price trend is coming to an end.
   
4. Interpreting Open Interest Data: Open interest should not be used in isolation. It’s most effective when used in conjunction with other indicators like volume and price trends. For example, an increase in both price and open interest suggests a strong trend.
   
5. Historical Examples: Consider the JPY data from the COT report dated March 19, 2024. The net position is -115,812, indicating a short bias. The open interest is decreasing, suggesting that the prevailing trend (bearish, in this case) might be weakening.
   
6. Common Pitfalls: One common misconception is that high open interest is bullish and low open interest is bearish. Remember, open interest is just the total number of outstanding contracts, not the direction of the market.
   
7. Incorporating Open Interest Analysis: Use open interest in conjunction with other market indicators to validate signals. For instance, if prices are in an uptrend and open interest is on the rise, traders may interpret this as a bullish signal.

Remember, while COT reports can provide a new perspective on market trends, they should not be the sole basis for trading decisions. Always consider other technical and fundamental factors. Happy trading!

Non-Commercial COT Analysis: GBPCHF and NZDCHF - As of March 19, 2024

GBPCHF Analysis:
Net Bias:

1. GBPCHF: Exhibits a Bullish net bias based on Non-Commercial COT positioning. This represents a shift from the previous week’s sentiment.

Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. GBP: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bullish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Long bias
   2. Changes in Positioning: -17,251 compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Decreasing
   4. Total Open Interest: 197,398

2. CHF: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bearish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Short bias
   2. Changes in Positioning: -2,630 compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Decreasing
   4. Total Open Interest: 71,545

NZDCHF Analysis:
Net Bias:

1. NZDCHF: Exhibits a Neutral net bias based on Non-Commercial COT positioning. This represents a continuation of the previous week’s sentiment.

Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. NZD: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Neutral. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Neutral bias
   2. Changes in Positioning: -2,654 compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Decreasing
   4. Total Open Interest: 50,301

2. CHF: Non-commercial traders are predominantly Bearish. Key Data:
   1. Net Position: Short bias
   2. Changes in Positioning: -2,630 compared to previous week
   3. Open Interest Trends: Decreasing
   4. Total Open Interest: 71,545

Implications for GBPCHF and NZDCHF:

1. Potential Direction: The combined sentiment from individual currencies suggests GBPCHF may move in an upward direction and NZDCHF may remain neutral.
2. Volatility: Potential for upward spikes in GBPCHF and subdued periods in NZDCHF due to speculative positioning reflected in COT data.
3. Market Depth: The total open interest for GBP and CHF indicates high liquidity, which could impact the GBPCHF’s price movements and trade execution. The total open interest for NZD and CHF indicates low liquidity, which could impact the NZDCHF’s price movements and trade execution.

Important Reminders:

1. COT data reveals speculative sentiment but is not a guarantee of market movement.
2. Changes in sentiment among non-commercial traders can shift quickly.
3. Integrate COT data with technical and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive view.

Symbol: GBPCHF
TF: M30


Update
= In profit 25+pips

Assets arranged by decreasing size of total open interest

This instrument is still sideways despite the forecasted bearish sentiment.

Symbol: AUDJPY
TF: H1

Thank you for your interesting analysis. Please, is this data produced weekly or daily?

Weekly | 00:00:30 Understanding the COT Report

= Nice Move AUDJPY - M30 =

Hello MwIRCT i know you are so busy these days you dont show up on our i will code your eas please kindly assist me in respect of the 5/13 lwma ea i posted here some few weeks back i have since posted the indicators here .Can we use this attached one for the ea ? Thanks

= 2nd Trade | GBPCHF - H1 =

NB 1: Plaese This thread is dedicated to COT discussions. Please direct all EA coding requests to the designated thread. To get my help with coding, tag me in that thread and I'll address your request. | https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...indicators-for

NB 2:
"The EA now incorporates EMA (20, 50, 200) bias for trend confirmation. Trade entries are triggered by LWMA (5, 13) cross signals, ensuring alignment with the dominant EMA 200 direction."

To use EMA (20, 50, 200) as trend filter just select TRUE, ( or keep FALSE to take only Lwma 5/13 unfiltered)


#To Every one | Enhance your trading strategies with custom-built EAs and tailored indicator conversions to EA. I prioritize privacy and deliver tailored solutions. $100 per indicator. Contact me to discuss your project.