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  • #19,781
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:32pm Sep 27, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting TheWraith
You guys should stop fuc'ing nonsense. Pay attention now! Gold might just be at the low we were all waiting for very soon (today)! We are waiting for the news from US!
What news? I don't see any on the calendar.
  • #19,782
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:33pm Sep 27, 2023 12:33pm
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} I hope so...After months of "gold is going to the moon" from everyone and there dog (other the Zebi) and almost £15,000 of losses, a couple of breakdowns and almost losing my GF, I hope so.
We were waiting for months for this gap on Gold to close and finally it might just close today.
Also, sorry to hear that. Hopefully, when the gap closes, that would be it and Gold will fly.
  • #19,783
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:34pm Sep 27, 2023 12:34pm
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} What news? I don't see any on the calendar.
Government shutdown in US.
  • #19,784
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:36pm Sep 27, 2023 12:36pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} We were waiting for months for this gap on Gold to close and finally it might just close today. Also, sorry to hear that. Hopefully, when the gap closes, that would be it and Gold will fly.
I was waiting for this a long time ago here we are now tommorow huge news !
  • #19,785
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:37pm Sep 27, 2023 12:37pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Government shutdown in US.
I heard something about that but I thought it wasn't substantiated because not many people are talking about it.
  • #19,786
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:37pm Sep 27, 2023 12:37pm
Quoting MrFanciful
I don't expect anything. I try to look at probabilities. So given that there has only been 1 bullish candle out of the last 20 4 hours candles, does that make it more or less likely for the next 4 hour candle to be bullish or bearish? One thing you would do is look back and see how often are there 21 4 hours candles with only one of those candle being opposite to the rest. How often does it happen? That is the same as saying what is the probability of the trend reversing, merely is it more or less likely that the next candle closes above or below...
There is no probability, if you want to think of it like that, think of it like roulette. The wheel doesn't know history. The last
20 spins being red makes zero difference to what will happen next.

Look at the weekly charts at what happened from April to October. That's how quickly gold moves when the right conditions are in play. The move today has been huge, but the charts said it was far more likely to go down than up because we hadn't posted a new low yet
  • #19,787
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:40pm Sep 27, 2023 12:40pm
Quoting TheWraith
You guys should stop fuc'ing nonsense. Pay attention now! Gold might just be at the low we were all waiting for very soon (today)! We are waiting for the news from US!
what news gdp..?
Everything, what's meant to be will find its way
  • #19,788
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:40pm Sep 27, 2023 12:40pm
Quoting Mohamed-Seit
{quote}what news gdp..?
US Government Shutdown!!
  • #19,789
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:44pm Sep 27, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} US Government Shutdown!!
What? U said like closing fruit shop.. tell me more about it. Will be any big impact ? Any unusual news ?
Everything, what's meant to be will find its way
  • #19,790
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:44pm Sep 27, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting Mohamed-Seit
{quote} beat me by your prediction and report me.. or I will delete my account Edit. If you have balls.. are you one of those ?
did you read my message?? I said that you should stop those homophobic comments.
Why are you talking about balls, how old are you??
grow up seriously
  • #19,791
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:45pm Sep 27, 2023 12:45pm
Quoting Mohamed-Seit
{quote} What? U said like closing fruit shop.. tell me more about it. Will be any big impact ? Any unusual news ?
It should be a big impact yes.
  • #19,792
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:45pm Sep 27, 2023 12:45pm
Quoting Fenty
{quote} There is no probability, if you want to think of it like that, think of it like roulette. The wheel doesn't know history. The last 20 spins being red makes zero difference to what will happen next. Look at the weekly charts at what happened from April to October. That's how quickly gold moves when the right conditions are in play. The move today has been huge, but the charts said it was far more likely to go down than up because we hadn't posted a new low yet
This is what I don't understand.

You say we are in a down trend, which I have marked up in green, and that we were more likely to go down than up because we hadn't made a new low. However, before a trend can form, the old trend has to come to an end. At some point in a down trend there will no longer be a new low. There will be a were lower high, followed by a higher low and then a higher high (at least simplified). So to say that just because a new low hasn't formed makes it more likely that there will be one surely only makes sense during the earlier (that is to say in the first half) of the trend. After you cross the median line of the length of the trend, the probability (that is to say more or less likely), of a new low starts to diminish.

I'm not trying to pick holes or be rude or anything. I just struggle with understand why people think what they think with this.
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  • #19,793
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:48pm Sep 27, 2023 12:48pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It should be a big impact yes.
Is the news definitely today?
  • #19,794
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:50pm Sep 27, 2023 12:50pm
Quoting manuforex
{quote} did you read my message?? I said that you should stop those homophobic comments. Why are you talking about balls, how old are you?? grow up seriously
ok stopped. Cool
Everything, what's meant to be will find its way
  • #19,795
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:51pm Sep 27, 2023 12:51pm
Quoting manuforex
{quote} did you read my message?? I said that you should stop those homophobic comments. Why are you talking about balls, how old are you?? grow up seriously
You should just put him on your ignore list.
  • #19,796
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:51pm Sep 27, 2023 12:51pm
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} Is the news definitely today?
It's this week 100%. Today, tommorow or on Friday? I honestly don't know.

It'll appear on FF as soon as it's out.
  • #19,797
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:52pm Sep 27, 2023 12:52pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It should be a big impact yes.
what time news release. I mean shutdown US government.
Everything, what's meant to be will find its way
  • #19,798
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:53pm Sep 27, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It's this week 100%. Today, tommorow or on Friday? I honestly don't know.
Okay so if this happens, gold would go up...?
  • #19,799
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:54pm Sep 27, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} This is what I don't understand. You say we are in a down trend, which I have marked up in green, and that we were more likely to go down than up because we hadn't made a new low. However, before a trend can form, the old trend has to come to an end. At some point in a down trend there will no longer be a new low. There will be a were lower high, followed by a higher low and then a higher high (at least simplified). So to say that just because a new low hasn't formed makes it more likely that there will be one surely only makes sense during...
You're right, the trend will end. But you don't know when. This may well be just the start.

The reason so many newbies lose is because most patterns they read about are reversal patterns. But a trend only reverses once and continues many times. Your best chance is to go with the trend after a retracement because 9 times out of 10 it won't be a reversal.
  • #19,800
  • Sep 27, 2023 12:54pm Sep 27, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It's this week 100%. Today, tommorow or on Friday? I honestly don't know. It'll appear on FF as soon as it's out.
Ok...I'll definitely keep my eyes and ears peeled. Hopefully I'll still have some funds left by then. Will probably be back to 0.01 lots though
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