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  • #17,161
  • Jun 28, 2023 5:05am Jun 28, 2023 5:05am
Quoting Takisd
I am very curious what peoples thoughts are on the prop firm bubble going on. What do they see happening in the next 3 months and who will be the first to slip and fall?
I think about few different scenarios but I keep coming back to hard/soft landing and recession.

I keep thinking about this from an angle of gambling and its revenues not sigificantly declining through recessions. If that's the case, their growth might slow down but make it through.
If that's not the case, we might get a dramatic slowdown in money inflows followed by a liquidation event.

Who will survive?
Well, those who have a proper way of hedging their big winners.

Those who know marketing beyond running promos, running trading competitions, posting fake reviews and organizing weekly game contests will also live a bit longer.
  • #17,162
  • Jun 28, 2023 6:43am Jun 28, 2023 6:43am
Quoting sampat
{quote} Alphari, FXCM and few more went bankrupt due to CHF tsunami. No regulations will help
You are wrong. Alpari bankrupt, people lose money. FXCM accept new shareholder, business as usual, people don't lose money.
  • #17,163
  • Jun 28, 2023 7:28am Jun 28, 2023 7:28am
Quoting Nsak3y
Maybe someone else can make sense of this. On the one hand, he claims to want to help traders remain profitable in the event that they are moved to A-book. But then it seems as if he is hoping to be able to apply specific spreads to traders, depending on how they trade (e.g. giving wider spreads to scalpers), since they are not profitable for them. Not sure if I am understanding this correctly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d40wmmj9NeE&t=1035s

"traditionally a broker makes money or reduce the profitability of a trader by higher spreads, commissions and execution", that's why working with a retail broker can never 100% be beneficial for traders in terms of costs. My idea of scalping is to secure and break even as soon as in profits how can one do that with wider spreads???????Been trading on and off as scalper on GJ for the past couple of years with Audacity direct funding program and the fact they use a direct LP helped a lot with the spreads. Just started now a challenge on the new program Ability on demo and spreads are great also on gold.
  • #17,164
  • Jun 28, 2023 7:50am Jun 28, 2023 7:50am
Quoting LehmanBrotha
{quote} I think about few different scenarios but I keep coming back to hard/soft landing and recession. I keep thinking about this from an angle of gambling and its revenues not sigificantly declining through recessions. If that's the case, their growth might slow down but make it through. If that's not the case, we might get a dramatic slowdown in money inflows followed by a liquidation event. Who will survive? Well, those who have a proper way of hedging their big winners. Those who know marketing beyond running promos, running trading competitions,...
I am thinking more ponzi like bubble bursting. When the market flattens, the new money wont be big enough to pay old and the Funding Talent type shenanigans will appear. I dont think the newer firms have proper calculated what all their bells and whistles will do to the bottom line.
  • #17,165
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:38am Jun 28, 2023 10:38am
I dont think it is bubble. You can easily name only 4-5 solid firms paying out. People are comparing this with Binary options which is not right as binary options probability of getting lucky and making money is more for trader and broker have less edge as compared to prop firms.
  • #17,166
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:41am Jun 28, 2023 10:41am
Quoting sampat
I dont think it is bubble. You can easily name only 4-5 solid firms paying out. People are comparing this with Binary options which is not right as binary options probability of getting lucky and making money is more for trader and broker have less edge as compared to prop firms.
there is literally a new firm every day for the last week. Its almost identical to the dot com bubble.

I think there are many firms running on fumes rn.
  • #17,167
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:52am Jun 28, 2023 10:52am
Quoting Takisd
{quote} there is literally a new firm every day for the last week. Its almost identical to the dot com bubble. I think there are many firms running on fumes rn.

they start collecting money right at the start. Probably first payouts will be over 3 months. Between these period they have enough money to pay the first winners.

And because the pass rate is low they can keep ending positive.
  • #17,168
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:52am Jun 28, 2023 10:52am
Quoting Takisd
{quote} there is literally a new firm every day for the last week. Its almost identical to the dot com bubble. I think there are many firms running on fumes rn.
Yea but how many of them are surviving? Many of them are paying and most often they get busted in couple of months. Banning prop firms is not easy like binary options.
  • #17,169
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:54am Jun 28, 2023 10:54am
Quoting Tim_isoara
{quote} You are wrong. Alpari bankrupt, people lose money. FXCM accept new shareholder, business as usual, people don't lose money.
Nope if Forex.com wouldn't have came to rescue FXCM clients could have lost everything. So it is not regulator who help clients.
  • #17,170
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:58am Jun 28, 2023 10:58am
Quoting Eren10
{quote} they start collecting money right at the start. Probably first payouts will be over 3 months. Between these period they have enough money to pay the first winners. And because the pass rate is low they can keep ending positive.
Ditto. Online prop firms have edge and time. They can easily get away by saying they are gaming company and paying clients for their data. Funding talent did same (Canadian regulators are bitcoin of regulatory world US is like Ethereum)
Only thing regulators can do is to force credit card companies to avoid allowing online payments which is actually good news for prop firms as they will allow crypto and clients can't do chargeback.
  • #17,171
  • Jun 28, 2023 11:23am Jun 28, 2023 11:23am
Quoting Takisd
{quote} I am thinking more ponzi like bubble bursting. When the market flattens, the new money wont be big enough to pay old and the Funding Talent type shenanigans will appear. I dont think the newer firms have proper calculated what all their bells and whistles will do to the bottom line.
Your angle is that lack of volatility might prolong bad traders' survival, for long enough till the velocity of outflows toward big winners causes issues?

I know your previous thoughts were about grid systems winning in ranging conditions, but I believe those are banned at almost all props by now.
  • #17,172
  • Jun 28, 2023 11:49am Jun 28, 2023 11:49am
Quoting OutThere
I think they would consider getting rid of a profitable trader if the prop can't make money from them as some prop already said that they couldn't replicate trades of a trader and refunded his fee which is actually noble compared to intentionally make them fail so they don't have refund them.
-Yes. This is what I mean. But perhaps not all firms will be so noble, especially if they can avoid bad PR, knowing that many traders will see their reasoning as just an excuse to kick a good trader, simply because many newbie traders do not really understand. This is just thinking out-loud, anyway.
  • #17,173
  • Jun 28, 2023 11:52am Jun 28, 2023 11:52am
Quoting sampat
{quote} Yea but how many of them are surviving? Many of them are paying and most often they get busted in couple of months. Banning prop firms is not easy like binary options.
the trend is pretty simple.

Influencer gets OOTB package, promotes to audience, audience grows. A lot of the new firms have large growth which is supporting the profitable traders. If the market goes flat and more retail traders win, which is the norm from a brokerage sense, then they will die. Recently we have had some pretty violent markets during and post news which wipes out the majority of traders because you cannot profit from low liquidity periods.

When the growth stops, a lot of them will fall. The margins are super thin now considering the offers going around and stupid coupons.

We know its bubble growth because FTMO and MFF still have remained steady on web traffic whilst new companies are experiencing some hyperbolic growth. They aren't taking customers away from old companies they are bringing new users to the space. But every payout cycle brings additional risk in this case because if the growth stops, the payouts will take over and thats when the bubble will burst.

TFT is already 4.5 on trustpilot down from 4.8 because their excessive free shit and bragging rights stuff has made their trading conditions abhorrent. I think we will see a lot more of that when things dry up.
  • #17,174
  • Jun 28, 2023 11:54am Jun 28, 2023 11:54am
Quoting LehmanBrotha
{quote} Your angle is that lack of volatility might prolong bad traders' survival, for long enough till the velocity of outflows toward big winners causes issues? I know your previous thoughts were about grid systems winning in ranging conditions, but I believe those are banned at almost all props by now.
Lack of volatility also increases the likelihood of someone with no stop loss and big lots winning.

Grid systems can work if the position size is small theres a specific target to hit and theres no time limit. Its not threatening flow from a trading perspective but it beats up infrastructure because of the constant order updates.
  • #17,175
  • Jun 28, 2023 12:35pm Jun 28, 2023 12:35pm
Anyone used bespoke and want to warn me of any hidden rules? Their website has like 4 faq's and no real rules page.

Edit: Rules I am talking about are like myfundedfx's rules.
3. Evaluation Criteria: While there is no fixed time limit, traders are still required to meet specific evaluation criteria to qualify for a funded trading account. These criteria may include meeting certain profit targets, demonstrating risk management skills, exhibiting consistent trading performance, and adhering to any other requirements specified by MyFundedFX. However, we believe that providing unlimited time allows traders to focus on refining their strategies, learning from their experiences, and improving their trading performance without feeling rushed.

What is this even? Any other requirements specified by MyFundedFx? like what?
  • #17,176
  • Jun 28, 2023 1:01pm Jun 28, 2023 1:01pm
Quoting Takisd
Anyone used bespoke and want to warn me of any hidden rules? Their website has like 4 faq's and no real rules page. Edit: Rules I am talking about are like myfundedfx's rules. 3. Evaluation Criteria: While there is no fixed time limit, traders are still required to meet specific evaluation criteria to qualify for a funded trading account. These criteria may include meeting certain profit targets, demonstrating risk management skills, exhibiting consistent trading performance, and adhering to any other requirements specified by MyFundedFX. However,...
Bespoke has hidden rules about martingale and grids. CEO refuses to post clear specifications on their site.
  • #17,177
  • Jun 28, 2023 1:08pm Jun 28, 2023 1:08pm
Quoting Takisd
Anyone used bespoke and want to warn me of any hidden rules? Their website has like 4 faq's and no real rules page.
Bespoke issues in telegram groups are about grid and martingale/soft martingale trading, which are not defined in their site. It's pretty much arbitrary, the CEO never gave a definitive definition so they can try to screw.

As a rule of thumb, from what I read from him, don't open more than 2 positions in a loss. And the second must be lower lots than the first.
Adding positions in profit he says that it's safe but Vitore was denied a payout accused of grid trading. Not sure if he can add something here.
And martingale is not just doubling position. If you buy 1 lot at 4000, 1.1 at 3900 and 1.2 at 3800 this is soft martingale. No need to be 1-2-4
  • #17,178
  • Jun 28, 2023 1:13pm Jun 28, 2023 1:13pm
Everyone's goal should be 600K with MFF and 400K with FTMO. Maybe E8 after that. If everyone is on the same page, these other firms do not exist.....they have no business.
This benefits everyone long term.....no scams, no bubbles, no regulation, the big 2 keep paying, etc, etc, etc
If there are no more MT4 licenses for sale, there WILL NEVER BE A NEW FIRM with it's own server. All new firms will use 8crap or some other shitty broker.
I still have a couple of accounts with TFTP and TFF, but as stated prior, I will not be adding to them.
  • #17,179
  • Jun 28, 2023 1:14pm Jun 28, 2023 1:14pm
Quoting sampat
Only thing regulators can do is to force credit card companies to avoid allowing online payments which is actually good news for prop firms as they will allow crypto and clients can't do chargeback.
This is an important point that I think it's worth to be discussed in this topic. Do you guys have experience in charge back props with some credit/debit card of one of those wallets that are multinational like Wise, Revolut, Curve, Binance, Monese, Skrill, etc. ?

Would be nice to know which card is better to pay challenges from the charge back perspective, in the event that the prop disappears. If I'm not wrong Wise only allows 90 days. For the others I don't know.

I was able to charge back with Paypal for Funding Talent, The Trading Capital and TCF, even for the lost challenges. However, they denied one challenge that I tried to charge back for The Prop Trading, although the request was basically the same than before. So I'm not so sure if Paypal is a safe option any longer (and most of the firms don't accept it anyway).
  • #17,180
  • Jun 28, 2023 1:27pm Jun 28, 2023 1:27pm
So basically the no time limit firm have hidden rules that basically means you can't really trade how you want to ya?

I was going to test a few strategies to prove some points but after what you guys said about bespoke and what i read about myfundedfx, FTMO/ MFF and 30 days still wins.

Anyone know what TFT's no time limit rules are going to be like?
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