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Flying Dutchman

  • #8,081
  • May 6, 2023 10:34am May 6, 2023 10:34am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Expectation is a funnny thing. It tends to lead to losses in my experience.
Not the analysis, but the human element of having a wedded opinion. Weeding out that part. Objectivity perhaps.
  • #8,082
  • May 6, 2023 10:38am May 6, 2023 10:38am
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  • #8,083
  • May 6, 2023 2:36pm May 6, 2023 2:36pm
Just thought I would share recent use of the 50 line on the EJ on May 5. Took the trade after the 5m break of the Box. In the past I would have closed the trade at such a fast and strong reversal . This time I had decided to make use of the 50 as a SL . So I hung on and price reversed as seen to the famous 178 fib.
Call it what you will...familiar price pattern, manipulation at that time in the session, luck, good use of the 50 line... .
Will pay more attention to the 50 and do some back testing. Thanks to Bluesteele, Fxpider, Spzd .
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  • #8,084
  • May 6, 2023 2:56pm May 6, 2023 2:56pm
Quoting Lou
Just thought I would share recent use of the 50 line on the EJ on May 5. Took the trade after the 5m break of the Box. In the past I would have closed the trade at such a fast and strong reversal . This time I had decided to make use of the 50 as a SL . So I hung on and price reversed as seen to the famous 178 fib. Call it what you will...familiar price pattern, manipulation at that time in the session, luck, good use of the 50 line... . Will pay more attention to the 50 and do some back testing. Thanks to Bluesteele, Fxpider, Spzd . {image}
Looks good. Thanks.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,085
  • May 6, 2023 3:34pm May 6, 2023 3:34pm
Quoting Lou
Just thought I would share recent use of the 50 line on the EJ on May 5. Took the trade after the 5m break of the Box. In the past I would have closed the trade at such a fast and strong reversal . This time I had decided to make use of the 50 as a SL . So I hung on and price reversed as seen to the famous 178 fib. Call it what you will...familiar price pattern, manipulation at that time in the session, luck, good use of the 50 line... . Will pay more attention to the 50 and do some back testing. Thanks to Bluesteele, Fxpider, Spzd . {image}

Hi Lou,,

I tend to think as these reversals as just like breathing ,,in out,,up down,,, Just the natural breathing of the market.... Yes sometimes it will move in a parabolic way or reverse to a breath on a larger TF...but for the most part it moves rhythmically... GEFx had posted some charts a few pages back now..With fibs drawn on some swings where he entered on the retracement 50 or 62 ish if I recall....

Heres a couple of charts of the EJ using Fibs and the 50 in 3 different areas of the bigger swing...all excellent entries....

Just a different perspective

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,086
  • May 6, 2023 8:43pm May 6, 2023 8:43pm
Quoting Lou
Just thought I would share recent use of the 50 line on the EJ on May 5. Took the trade after the 5m break of the Box. In the past I would have closed the trade at such a fast and strong reversal . This time I had decided to make use of the 50 as a SL . So I hung on and price reversed as seen to the famous 178 fib. Call it what you will...familiar price pattern, manipulation at that time in the session, luck, good use of the 50 line... . Will pay more attention to the 50 and do some back testing. Thanks to Bluesteele, Fxpider, Spzd . {image}
Thank you and congratulation on posting your chart

By the way, did you enter @ BO? BLUESTEELE ( Mr. 50% ) mentioned that,

  1. 1st we need to see a close > box
  2. Then we wait for the retracement to 50% or below.
  3. Wait for the retracement candle to close
  4. Switch to 1M to refine your entry.

Also, in your chart, the MAs are pointing to a strong trend ( properly stacked, angled, and fanned out), that can be used for additional confluences to trade BO of the box, IMO.

Cheers!!

Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #8,087
  • May 6, 2023 8:52pm May 6, 2023 8:52pm
"I tend to think as these reversals as just like breathing ,,in out,,up down,,, Just the natural breathing of the market."
Couldn't help but recall that we are trading against other people (or are we )... institutional traders. Real people or AI ? AI IS programmed , Tricksters ? or computer operators simply following orders. Are orders from traders/institutions (market orders) or are the orders from market makers who are saying.. " do this or do that " manipulators ?
Does it make a difference ?
Saturday Sarcasm
  • #8,088
  • Edited 9:46pm May 6, 2023 9:12pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote} Thank you and congratulation on posting your chart By the way, did you enter @ BO? BLUESTEELE ( Mr. 50% ) mentioned that, 1st we need to see a close > box Then we wait for the retracement to 50% or below. Wait for the retracement candle to close Switch to 1M to refine your entry. Also, in your chart, the MAs are pointing to a strong trend ( properly stacked, angled, and fanned out), that can be used for additional confluences to trade BO of the box, IMO. Cheers!!
I entered on the BO of 5m bar closing. I eyeballed the 12 candle box to 18 per Al Brooks time in this case starting from my 7 pm Asia open . Decided to use the 50 as a SL . Was thinking this would be a strong move. So was not planning on a retrace to the 50 line. . MAs are LWMA 9 and 20 . Only checked the 1m occasionally .
  • #8,089
  • Edited 2:09am May 7, 2023 1:55am | Edited 2:09am
Some Sunday blabbering. Have followed Bluesteele's posts on Box trading around US Equity open and was very impressed with what he has got going for him and with the effort he has put in to fine tune his strategy. I mean its all infront of us and happens all the time. Time and RNs are consistent which makes it easy to follow. A hindsight chart of US30 i had a look with the box trading template. The precision of entries and exists are right there asking to be traded. The box was not broken and closed either side to give the probability but with the input of Laura's Roadmap it has even more help and confluence(s). I have just started to watch the Box style lately and its great for those who are trading from US or maybe Europe. For me its quite late..lol. You don't have setups like these all the time and at times price just takes off and doesn't bother about 50 fib level. For those who use Laura's Roadmap, they can use the 200MA and 8 ema for entries. Fibs can be used for targets. Others who are trading this could add more points. Trade Well All.
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  • #8,090
  • May 7, 2023 8:18am May 7, 2023 8:18am
Quoting whitesta
Some Sunday blabbering. Have followed Bluesteele's posts on Box trading around US Equity open and was very impressed with what he has got going for him and with the effort he has put in to fine tune his strategy. I mean its all infront of us and happens all the time. Time and RNs are consistent which makes it easy to follow. A hindsight chart of US30 i had a look with the box trading template. The precision of entries and exists are right there asking to be traded. The box was not broken and closed either side to give the probability but with the...
More thoughts; First box - the 12 bar 5 minute count and 18 give the high of the day as per Al Brooke's theory that the 18th bar gives the high of the day 90% of the time. I believe Bluesteele mentions this in an earlier post?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,091
  • May 7, 2023 11:46am May 7, 2023 11:46am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} More thoughts; First box - the 12 bar 5 minute count and 18 give the high of the day as per Al Brooke's theory that the 18th bar gives the high of the day 90% of the time. I believe Bluesteele mentions this in an earlier post?
Hi T,,
In Whitesta's example the box would have remained exactly the same after the 18th candle since it was under the high...
Yes I have mentioned Al Brooks many many times I have just found that it is not necessary to wait for the 18th bar to close
to form my box...The 12th works as good or better IMO... More inline with what the markets intentions are.

I have put thousands of hours into testing and backtesting these boxes over the last 2.5 years or so and my conclusion for me is this:
ALWAYS keep the PROBAILITIES of the H/L being formed by the box in mind. Each successive candle gives us a higher probability
that the High or Low has been set... No Magic to the 18th as the 19th or 20th will give more than a 90% prob...

Is their a way to figure out the day’s high ?

Good question...Yes you can with 99.99% certainty and here's how.
There are 78-5M bars in a trading session i.e. The US30 SP500 etc...
from the morning open at 930 NYT till the close.

Over 30 years of data tells us that :

5 minute bars
Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 78 : 99% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.

There still is alot of work to be done to trade these probabilities successfully ....as by themselves they really mean nothing.

Thats where the whole "Framework" of 80% of BOs Fail,,,PDHs PDLs, Day Counts, Targets, Timing , RoadMap, etc,,, etc,,,,, all come into play
THEN !!! The probabilities start playing out for you with setups with a defined edge...

Just some Sunday Morning thoughts

Gutters to be cleaned... my skylights need washed,,BBQ needs cleaned up,,,, but here I am with my coffee lol

Better get cracking at it
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,092
  • May 7, 2023 1:56pm May 7, 2023 1:56pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hi T,, In Whitesta's example the box would have remained exactly the same after the 18th candle since it was under the high... Yes I have mentioned Al Brooks many many times I have just found that it is not necessary to wait for the 18th bar to close to form my box...The 12th works as good or better IMO... More inline with what the markets intentions are. I have put thousands of hours into testing and backtesting these boxes over the last 2.5 years or so and my conclusion for me is this: ALWAYS keep the PROBAILITIES of the H/L being...
Nicely Done !

Just a question as an example... Are you saying by the time Bar 13 is printed, the probability that the H or L of the day has been reached is 70 % . Since the H/L may have been reached prior to bar 13 ... but 13 is the benchmark time to determine the per cent. Or is bar 13 the actual H or L itself 70 % of the time ?

I like the 78th bar joke. Yes, by the end of the day... the Daily H/L would have been reached, 99% of the time(actually both H and L). That would happen sometime at two of those 78 bars.
  • #8,093
  • May 7, 2023 2:31pm May 7, 2023 2:31pm
Quoting OAPDave
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...on-breakout-v2 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ssive-strategy?
Proof nothing has really changed.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,094
  • May 7, 2023 4:02pm May 7, 2023 4:02pm
Quoting whitesta
Some Sunday blabbering. Have followed Bluesteele's posts on Box trading around US Equity open and was very impressed with what he has got going for him and with the effort he has put in to fine tune his strategy. I mean its all infront of us and happens all the time. Time and RNs are consistent which makes it easy to follow. A hindsight chart of US30 i had a look with the box trading template. The precision of entries and exists are right there asking to be traded. The box was not broken and closed either side to give the probability but with the...
Hey W,,,

Heres a chart of Fridays GJ Asian into UK.... and some DRIP of more info on how I trade or How I see things... Yes a real Hindsight chart for the punters lol....
No I did not trade any of this.... This is strictly an example of what I see,,How I see the charts....and How I trade the charts when these setups occur.

First for Trading Asia..When I trade Asia I have 2 BOX templates... One is the Tokyo Open 1 HR box(12 5m Candles)
The other template is the complete Tokyo session...I moreso use that for reference in the US session.

If I am going to trade a session...I will trade the Open and the first few hours and thats generally it..Sometimes I trade later U.S.

So not sure about your available time for Trading W...But Asia open and the few hours afterwards are some good trades...and of course into The UK session.

Heres a couple of GJ charts from Friday
They combine a 1hour box Tokyo Open, RoadMap, 50%, BRNs, Quarter Levels...Opens etc etc.... all the things we talk about.

Point is for those that cant trade NY theres 2 other sessions and if you delve into it....There is always opportunities.
When we know what we are looking for..When we have setups... The charts become very clear on the Hard right edge.(patience is key)

I think one of the biggest things is something W has exhibited alot of in his past charts showing trades taken...Is Patience
Sitting on your hands and letting the Market come to you,,,As George would say "into his playground.." Let the market breathe.
Let it come to your best entry areas...Let the patterns set up and if they dont oh well..Look at another pair or several...or simply
wait for another bus to come tomorrow....

Easier said then done I know very well...Its always been my achilles heel and something I am very aware of and will repeat in my head
every single day....Wait ,,Wait have patience....let it come to me...and I do the same with TPs... Wait Wait Wait and Bam slam her closed
I digress into Whom am I trading against...Answer is always ME... So enough,,,,time to wash my truck... No gutters or skylights so far BBQ CHECK !!!

SHORT THE M's
LONG THE W's
WITH CONFLUENCE!!!!

BLUE

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,095
  • May 7, 2023 4:20pm May 7, 2023 4:20pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Proof nothing has really changed.
Except the variations on the theme
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,096
  • May 7, 2023 4:26pm May 7, 2023 4:26pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Except the variations on the theme
Have to have the different flavors.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,097
  • Edited 7:20pm May 7, 2023 6:17pm | Edited 7:20pm
[quote=bluesteele;14418357]{quote} (patience is key) WITH CONFLUENCE!!!!

Thanks again for the detailed explanation and beautiful charts Bluesteele.. Having paid so much for being trigger happy i do my very best to let price come to my analysed region. Over 70% of the time it takes off without me on the ride but as you mentioned another bus will come tomorrow. Not IF but WHEN. Markets will be there to analyse and trade. I mean it has been there for years...lol. Its all about analysis and looking for confluences increasing the probability. I am still learning the box trading style and have seen at times there is no break and close of the box either side immediately after the hour mark. We can use Laura's Roadmap, DOL, PDLs, PDHs, RNs, 50% fibs, Session Hs & Ls, etc to place trades when this happens. Bluesteele has showed it all on his charts with notes. It doesn't get any simpler than that. Another advice i got from Kev was to trade from the outside and from the right side. For outside, its trading from extremes which is letting the price come to those RNs, Confluences, Outside of trendlines and Time. Right side is all about patience cos Price will react with big candles at first visits to those RNs and confluences but its always safer to wait for 2nd and 3rd visits for confirmations. At times it will just go straightaway and not return for the retest, thats trading and we just have to accept it. This is where frustration creeps in and we get trigger happy. It is hard to be patient, but it definitely works in the long run in this business. Its always good to stay out than to jump in early and pay the price. I have learnt it the hard way but at times i still get it wrong, we are human beings and bound to make mistakes. For that we have STOPLOSS..lol. Practice, Practice, Practice. Slowly hindsight will become foresight. I have learnt from scratch from a couple of threads with the help of some very helpful traders, Bluesteele & Timetells & George being on the top of the list. I am not saying that i am super successful, a million miles away from it. Just a part time trader. There are so many setups that just repeats itself day in day out right infront of us. I am able to see a couple of those setups early and think of trading. Why i say THINK cos i have some set rules like RN and Time being the main ingredients. Many times i just see these setups and tell myself where the price is heading but i don't place the trades cos it doesn't happen around RN and specific time. Cos once u break one rule, u tend to get in the bad habit. Yes rules can always be added and fine tuned but until i am proficient like a few here i will try and stick to these. It has really helped me to be patient and place few high probability trades each week. Just to keep it real there are times i fail with all confluences. Well i just stop, take some rest and wait for the next setup, be it in the next hour, next day or after few days. Its really hard but do not let ur ego or think of revenge trade. Accept the loss and wait for next setup.
Have a great Trading Week All.
  • #8,098
  • May 7, 2023 7:37pm May 7, 2023 7:37pm
Got past three consecutive days with the BoJ on an extended Bank Holiday.

And today its a bank holiday for the GBP


And folks wonder why banking systems are under pressure
They just won't work hahaaa
  • #8,099
  • May 7, 2023 8:14pm May 7, 2023 8:14pm
Continuing from my last post...as i had mentioned that at times i do see setups early but don't place a trade cos it is not at the right time or around RNs or a retest. GBP/JPY had set a High for atleast OZ session just before Tokyo Open. Price broke 170.75 with a decent size candle, then rejected the yearly R1 Pivot forming a LH. 3 confluences in itself. As i said that i did not place a trade but was quite confident it would atleast hit the 200ma. For scalpers thats 5 to 10 pips gain. It is now looking for the Low. There are targets all over. If u look closely, it didn't have any real retest and the momentum was strong for a short and the LH was formed right on Pivot. Didn't really need to retest the RN. I like the retests for confirmation and for my rules. Didn't happen so stayed out but as long as i was happy with the analysis and saw where the price was heading. Price looking for Lows now.
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  • #8,100
  • May 7, 2023 8:27pm May 7, 2023 8:27pm
I say choose your poison ... UJ - GJ - EJ ...

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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