Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
to my eyes this is a wave 4, but I am new to waves {image}
but in this moment correction on eur usd also completed. so all pairs are screaming us dollar strength and of course also USD YEN.
{quote} agreed with that. as said many weeks ago us dollar trend not done especially in commodities currencies like aud and cad. but in this moment correction on eur usd also completed. so all pairs are screaming us dollar strength and of course also USD YEN. {image}
essentially elliott wave theory applied to trading is a trend follower system.
to call a top is a low probability game as you have 1 possibilities to doing right.
and more over when you believe a top is in place you lose objective observation of the move.
as you can see every wavers calls the downtrend as an impulse but if i look without emotional bias i can't see an impulse so is more probably the end of wave 4.
so is the elliott wave theory wrong or human are doing mistake??
i spend a lot of my time doing elliott wave analysis without trading.
i let the market tell me what is following.
if someone have a degree in statistics as i am i essentially apply hypothesis testing before trading.
the market is distributed as a binomial. so you have 50% of doing right.. sell or buy.
but i don't want to enter a trade with this probability.
when you doing an elliott wave analysis you tryng to understand the path of the market.
when market follow you elliott wave count your probabilities of doing right is not 50% but at least 80%.
so when you have tested market activity you put your fiche.
take the example of AUD USD.
i have a bias to sell this currency day ago. as market progress i noticed i 3 wave pullback for wave 2. i enter the trade and now i'm managing position with elliott wave rules. in this case there's only one possibilities of doing wrong and this is a flat pattern.
but probabilities are to the downside and elliott rules call yesterday pullback as a wave 4.
if this is wave 4 we can apply one rules of elliott that said wave 5 tend to be equal to wave 1.
so i have wave 5 should bottom at 0.65 approx. if wave 5 will be 1.618 of wave 1 it will go well below 0.65
i let the market tell me what is following.
if someone have a degree in statistics as i am i essentially apply hypothesis testing before trading.
the market is distributed as a binomial. so you have 50% of doing right.. sell or buy.
but i don't want to enter a trade with this probability.
when you doing an elliott wave analysis you tryng to understand the path of the market.
when market follow you elliott wave count your probabilities of doing right is not 50% but at least 80%.
so when you have tested market activity you put your fiche.
take the example of AUD USD.
i have a bias to sell this currency day ago. as market progress i noticed i 3 wave pullback for wave 2. i enter the trade and now i'm managing position with elliott wave rules. in this case there's only one possibilities of doing wrong and this is a flat pattern.
but probabilities are to the downside and elliott rules call yesterday pullback as a wave 4.
if this is wave 4 we can apply one rules of elliott that said wave 5 tend to be equal to wave 1.
so i have wave 5 should bottom at 0.65 approx. if wave 5 will be 1.618 of wave 1 it will go well below 0.65
i spend a lot of my time doing elliott wave analysis without trading. i let the market tell me what is following. if someone have a degree in statistics as i am i essentially apply hypothesis testing before trading. the market is distributed as a binomial. so you have 50% of doing right.. sell or buy. but i don't want to enter a trade with this probability. when you doing an elliott wave analysis you tryng to understand the path of the market. when market follow you elliott wave count your probabilities of doing right is not 50% but at least 80%....
- #69
- Apr 28, 2023 7:46am Apr 28, 2023 7:46am
- Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
- #71
- Apr 28, 2023 10:50am Apr 28, 2023 10:50am
- Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
- #73
- Apr 28, 2023 12:08pm Apr 28, 2023 12:08pm
- Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
[quote=Fishbones;14412728]
looks complete cycle as i see 9 waves.
we must have a decline in 5 waves to call an high in place.
but 5 waves looks complete right now
potential wave 4 on DAX future. let'see how it play out. eliott wave is a trend following system so probabilities are to the upside until there 's not overlapping with wave 1 {image}[/quoteis is wave 5 completed? Can you please post an update on dax futures?
we must have a decline in 5 waves to call an high in place.
but 5 waves looks complete right now
