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Flying Dutchman

  • #6,981
  • Mar 20, 2023 12:21pm Mar 20, 2023 12:21pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} He also runs a trade room and still trades the same as he did back then .. averaging down heavily... Very heavy.. He's a gambler thru n thru IMO .. I can't for the life of me see why people would pay him alot of money each month to follow his piss poor signals... But I guess that's really nothing out of the ordinary in this business full of charlatans....
and some are easier to spot than others ..................

Quoting turnip15
{quote} He no longer resides. he has his own thread at: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-swing-trading Try there.
OMG, you have just sent someone down a rabbit hole.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #6,982
  • Mar 20, 2023 12:46pm Mar 20, 2023 12:46pm
Quoting Shabs19
Levels drawn last night, I did say it would test Highs before going down (& test Lows if going Up.) Ps: I didn't use a crystal ball or fancy indicators, just my trusty Horizontal lines & rectangles. Now where's my invite for the Top Table ........................................... {image}
The GJ chart from this morning, drawn last night. Playbook Bermuda Traingle back to the top.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-03-20_17h42_58.png Size: 39 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #6,983
  • Mar 20, 2023 12:53pm Mar 20, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The GJ chart from this morning, drawn last night. Playbook Bermuda Traingle back to the top. {image}
The Bermudas fall into the Pump n Dump/Dump n Pump, depends on initial direction, category. Which a good amount of market moves are.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,984
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:01pm Mar 20, 2023 1:01pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The GJ chart from this morning, drawn last night. Playbook Bermuda Traingle back to the top. {image}
Drawn as things go. The two rectangles are from last night.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zz-2023.03.20-GBPJPYM15.png Size: 40 KB
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,985
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:06pm Mar 20, 2023 1:06pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Drawn as things go. The two rectangles are from last night. {image}
Looks like that pump from Thursday was dumped last night. With Friday being a LOW area variant of a first red day. Which makes last nights drop make sense in that methodology.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,986
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:38pm Mar 20, 2023 1:38pm
up way over 100 pips now on gbpusd!! LOL
  • #6,987
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:41pm Mar 20, 2023 1:41pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} and some are easier to spot than others .................. {quote} OMG, you have just sent someone down a rabbit hole.
I know - aren't I awful
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #6,988
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:48pm Mar 20, 2023 1:48pm
I am the original Flying Dutchman!!!!
  • #6,989
  • Mar 20, 2023 2:03pm Mar 20, 2023 2:03pm
Something from Cory I saw this morning and reminds me of the quest of being 1% better every day ...


Cory Mitchell, CMT

We can only improve so much by looking at other people's trades.

The "level-up" is when we find ways to improve on OUR OWN trades.

This is the gritty work that most people don't want to do.

But if you want to improve, here's how to do it.


Each trade we take has several major components:

entries, stop losses, targets, and position size

In this thread, I'll go over ways to improve your entries.

Hopefully, these examples also can help you improve the other components.

How to improve entries

Entries: Look at your last 20-50 entries.

How was your timing OVERALL?

Likely some will be ok, some will be bad, and some will be good.

You're looking for tendencies…what happens MOST often.

Did the market chop around for a while before moving in your direction?..

Did winning trades take off quickly while your losing trades sat there or moved toward your stop loss right away?

Did you get in as a move was ending instead of starting?

Use the information…

If you're often TOO LATE, admit there isn't enough profit potential after a typical entry to warrant the risk.

Look where the move started.

Where there signals to get in there?

What were they?

What information or rules could have prevented you from entering so late so often?..

If you're often in TOO EARLY, sometimes the fix can be as simple as waiting an extra price bar or two.

Or waiting for the price to start moving in your direction before entering.

If you tend to enter early, get stopped out, and then the price goes, you have a couple options…

1) Exit very quickly if the price doesn’t run relatively quickly.

Re-enter if it triggers an entry again.

No point taking a full loss when you KNOW YOU often get stopped before the run...

2) Await more confirmation.

This often means getting in slightly later but may avoid one or two stop outs in 10 or 15 trades.

Avoiding a few losses means more money in your pocket at the end of the month...

The work is not done here.

If you find a possible improvement, run through how a bunch of trades would have worked with that new rule.

Do results improve?

Keep trying till you find a method that improves results across a large number of trades....

This is why this work is tedious and most don’t do it.

You're looking to improve your results by maybe 1 or 2R every 10 or 15 trades.

It could be a bigger improvement, but ANY improvement is a step in the right direction...
And remember these components all work together.

You may see your winners often take off quickly while your losses fail pretty quickly.

In that case, you can change your stop loss rules to cut losses quicker if price doesn’t run, reducing the average loss..

For example, if your average loss is 1R, and you find that you can cut some losses quicker by analyzing your entries, you may be able to reduce your average loss to 0.8R.

Over 10 losses, you just saved an extra 2R...

By improving your entries, you may be able to increase your profit target on a reward:risk basis.

Assume your average win is 2R.

By improving the entry, you may be able to go to 2.2R, 2.5R, or even 3R...

Even if you can squeeze a little more out of your profits, like 2.2R instead of 2R (because of better entries), on every 10 winning trades you just found an extra 2R.

If your better entries allow you to get to 3R average, you just found an extra 10R every 10 winning trades..

The “perfect entry" isn't required. Just improvement.

If better entries save you from a full loss one to two times in 10 trades, your results improve.

If you can squeeze a bit more profit, on average, out of your winners because of better entries, your results improve..

Do the work no one else wants to, and get the results they always wanted..

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #6,990
  • Mar 20, 2023 2:15pm Mar 20, 2023 2:15pm
Quoting bluesteele
Something from Cory I saw this morning and reminds me of the quest of being 1% better every day ... Cory Mitchell, CMT We can only improve so much by looking at other people's trades. The "level-up" is when we find ways to improve on OUR OWN trades. This is the gritty work that most people don't want to do. But if you want to improve, here's how to do it. Each trade we take has several major components: entries, stop losses, targets, and position size In this thread, I'll go over ways to improve your entries. Hopefully, these examples also can help...
Point one is extremely important. Corey scalps the EU, so not a lot of wiggle room. All my trades start as a "scalp". I failed to heed point 1 and ended taking a full loss which took two trades to cover. If it don't feel right - bail.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,991
  • Mar 20, 2023 3:07pm Mar 20, 2023 3:07pm
I have to admit...I am eagerly awaiting the arrival of our resident GJ mechanic Pete/TimeTells.....

For one of his beautiful GJ charts... How many times do we see that pattern .

That's all !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #6,992
  • Mar 20, 2023 3:11pm Mar 20, 2023 3:11pm
Quoting bluesteele
I have to admit...I am eagerly awaiting the arrival of our resident GJ mechanic Pete/TimeTells..... For one of his beautiful GJ charts... How many times do we see that pattern . That's all !
Triangles and Zeppelins.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,993
  • Mar 20, 2023 3:52pm Mar 20, 2023 3:52pm
Quoting ninner
up way over 100 pips now on gbpusd!! LOL
nice work!
  • #6,994
  • Mar 20, 2023 3:58pm Mar 20, 2023 3:58pm
Quoting ntk
{quote}
Could you pls guide me a little here with the H4 intend. How do you evaluate, do you need any extern indicator?

Hi ntk,
Mate if BWilliam "clearly & comprehensively" answers your question to him over on the TA Swingers thread.
could you please if able post that reply link over here as well as some of his curious followers might also look here for that answer too.
  • #6,995
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:01pm Mar 20, 2023 4:01pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote}
He also runs a trade room and still trades the same as he did back then .. averaging down heavily... Very heavy.. He's a gambler thru n thru IMO .. I can't for the life of me see why people would pay him alot of money each month to follow his piss poor signals... But I guess that's really nothing out of the ordinary in this business full of charlatans....
The pop-star mentality are following, probably.
  • #6,996
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:03pm Mar 20, 2023 4:03pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
The Bermudas fall into the Pump n Dump/Dump n Pump, depends on initial direction, category. Which a good amount of market moves are.

Hahaaa, we are many who are seeing this now.

My conclusion.

Market is hightly organised imho

I call this Chart .. History Mystery repeats


(edit, missed your Kev, cheers pal)
Quoting bluesteele
I have to admit...I am eagerly awaiting the arrival of our resident GJ mechanic Pete/TimeTells..... For one of his beautiful GJ charts... How many times do we see that pattern . That's all !

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 mystery repeats itself.png Size: 17 KB
  • #6,997
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:06pm Mar 20, 2023 4:06pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaaa, we are many who are seeing this now. My conclusion. Market is hightly organised imho I call this Chart .. History Mystery repeats . {image}
Strange, how after enough hours and input, it's whoa, this is a rather simple process they have here ... hmmmm .....
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,998
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:08pm Mar 20, 2023 4:08pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Strange, how after enough hours and input, it's whoa, this is a rather simple process they have here ... hmmmm .....
Then, I think the final questions become, who is trapped and are they getting ready to clear out.


edit: they = those who move the markets
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #6,999
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:10pm Mar 20, 2023 4:10pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaaa, we are many who are seeing this now. My conclusion. Market is hightly organised imho I call this Chart .. History Mystery repeats (edit, missed your Kev, cheers pal) {quote} . {image}
Wot !!! No Zeppelins !
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #7,000
  • Mar 20, 2023 4:15pm Mar 20, 2023 4:15pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
Oh, I was always under the impression Leeson's problems were due to the fact he basically bet against the falls after the Kobe earthquake and got himself in a hole he just couldn't get out of. Are you saying it was something else?

Hi D-M,
Mate you were around the money imo, according to this article from the past.
The Final Straw apparently, he bet that the Japan Stock market would remain stable overnight, a fair bet at the time probably.
Then the Kobe earthquake.

Chasing losses.
(just another example of sorts of, You vs You)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/703004...e-trader-lose/

By the end of 1992, he had lost around £2million and this figure grew to around £208million by the end of 1994.
But his true downfall came on January 16, 1995, when he essentially bet that the Japanese stock market would not move significantly overnight.
The Kobe earthquake which killed more than 6,000 struck the next morning, sending the Asian markets into a nosedive and forcing Neeson to make a series of increasingly risky bets which did not materialise.


I remember back in Melbourne, Aus in the 70's some time, when they reported the story on Monday, of a Bank () employee who took a huge amount of cash from the till/safe over the weekend to plunge on a dead-cert on a wet track at Sandown on the Saturday. Replace the money on Monday and pocket the winnings.

The horse was a long odds-on fave so not a huge win ahead, if you know what I mean, but a certainty (on paper).
The horse led by eight lengths into the home straight and was "home for all money" 400m out (quarter-mile) when it put its leg in a hole in the track & fell.
Horse was okay as I remember.
But I remember thinking at the time how the Bank guy's heart would have been pounding with adrenalin as the horse looked home, and then immediately after.

He then ...
Handed himself in to the authorities on the Monday morning.
(Didn't ever write a book).

Trade safe folks, trade well.
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