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Flying Dutchman

  • #5,301
  • Feb 22, 2023 5:45pm Feb 22, 2023 5:45pm
okay back to trading now lol
  • #5,302
  • Feb 22, 2023 5:59pm Feb 22, 2023 5:59pm
Breaks are good.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,303
  • Feb 22, 2023 6:39pm Feb 22, 2023 6:39pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote}
If one could get 33pips a day, it soon mounts up:-)

Hi Turnip,
missed this post earlier.

Yes, that is correct. 33p a day would be excellent.

I have in mind, only for myself, a daily target of just 15 pips which would suit me fine, not too much stress, and then I can pick & choose when to enter,"once" hopefully in Asia and then again in either pre-Franky, Franky or London. And THEN CLOSE for the day (ie no New York for me as it is too close to bedtime and what would happen if a quick DD and then I had to play that hand for maybe the next two plus hours into around 2am in Aus lol - no thanks, as I used to do that )

I don't discuss my personal trading too much (a few charts of winners lol, while I do have losing trades also), as its personal that's all.

I do say that First after getting to understand the nature and behaviour of our markets (the Mechanics if you will),

the Next for me was risk management
(which I am STILL always working on, as, even knowing the market shenanigans, they still "catch me out" in times when I foolishly hold onto my belief of where the market is headed rather than where it IS actually heading.So I am still the weak link in my own chain as such, and I continually work on that as I said)

The Last then was the trade size vs leverage vs a/c amount.

In the end I settled on what would allow me peace with 15 pips a day and anything above was bonus and anything less was the market outsmarted me again.
At 20 pips/day would equate to around a 1% increase in my a/c (everyone could relate "pips to a %" where percentage alone doesn't show anything "grabbed").

Are we trading too high just to make what we need each trading day. Are we trading too low to maximise what is available to us.

How long do we wish to be in the market (thank goodness forex is only 24/5 or else I would be at it on the weekends maybe)

How quick do we wish to increase our a/c.

In that speed to increase our a/c do we look at the percentages & pip values needed MORE than we look at the probabilty/viabilty of each individual trade that may get PUSHED into the background in favour of the all-important a/c balance increase (in my mind any a/c balance increase is a RESULT of how good our trade was rather than the trade becoming less important than us just "increasing" our a/c at whatever cost).

EACH to their own here, try your own stuff on simulators etc and test it and retest it till something works right for YOU, not me.


Expansions beginning, back to chart watching for me, and good fortunes
  • #5,304
  • Feb 22, 2023 6:54pm Feb 22, 2023 6:54pm
One last chart quickly on
equilibrium
why does this happen

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 equiibrium.png Size: 19 KB
  • #5,305
  • Feb 22, 2023 7:39pm Feb 22, 2023 7:39pm
Quoting TimeTells
One last chart quickly on equilibrium why does this happen . {image}
Whatever does it, it is very efficient. And enough crumbs are left for us meager folk to feast upon.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,306
  • Feb 22, 2023 8:07pm Feb 22, 2023 8:07pm
Quoting spzd
This is for Pete. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVT2...canHorseRacing



Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
I reckon I have watched it half a dozen times and still get goosebumps {

I've watched the movie they made, I mean
  • #5,307
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:02pm Feb 22, 2023 9:02pm
Quoting BWilliam
Just checked EJ that I don't trade. Asian Market is pushing towards 129.80. This pair has seen the bottom. Algo might be pushing north in narrow range towards 130.70 starting yesterday. Sell at the top buy at the bottom 129.40. But be careful at the top.
I've been reading this thread with something like bemusement, waiting for someone to make a falsifiable claim. It took a while but kudos to BWilliam for finally making a forecast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sadly, they were exactly wrong, and the attentive reader would have been better off trading against this advice. Of course this is only one instance in who knows how many (does anyone know? who's counting?), so it's of limited importance. Still I must ask. What value forecasting? What value 'master algo'? I'll see myself out.
  • #5,308
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:14pm Feb 22, 2023 9:14pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}
Still I must ask.

What value forecasting?
What value 'master algo'?

I'll see myself out.

Hi clemmo,

Two similarly sounding questions.

Both dealing with completely different aspects. 100% different.

But I would certainly agree with what value in Forecasting.

I ask myself 'for what purpose forecasting' when we can easily just watch how the market responds at the points of attraction.

I'll hang around though
  • #5,309
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:19pm Feb 22, 2023 9:19pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi GEfx I was trading E$ last night and was watching the bankers load up long at 1.1795 for about 40 minutes so I expect a bullish week next week.
One last snipe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 17 KB
The week was in fact, bearish. Those bankers were very tricky indeed. Of course a nimble trader like RickM probably just changed their mind before too long.
  • #5,310
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:22pm Feb 22, 2023 9:22pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}
I'll see myself out.

Those doors can be real hard to find, when in a maze
  • #5,311
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:30pm Feb 22, 2023 9:30pm
why not hang around clemmo, all discussion is valid
  • #5,312
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:57pm Feb 22, 2023 9:57pm
Quoting TimeTells
why not hang around clemmo, all discussion is valid
Well, I probably don't have much to contribute. My own learning journey has mostly been a series of negatives and disproven hypotheses. I was having fun for a while coppering the public's bets, but then I find some of the bets may not even be real trades. It's a frustrating game we play and so it's no surprise that our other pastime is bickering. I'm feisty and ready to spar though, if anyone's willing.
  • #5,313
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:05pm Feb 22, 2023 10:05pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}
Well, I probably don't have much to contribute. My own learning journey has mostly been a series of negatives and disproven hypotheses. I was having fun for a while coppering the public's bets, but then I find some of the bets may not even be real trades. It's a frustrating game we play and so it's no surprise that our other pastime is bickering.
I'm feisty and ready to spar though, if anyone's willing.

Oh man, clemmo, you may have found your home here lol


Firstly, I & many would understand your (trading history) pain.

And believe it or not, on Andy’s crazy & cracker of a thread AND in the middle of some very HEATED arguments between two protaginists,
or is it “one protagonist and one antagonist” lol,

who cares, the point I am trying to make is

In the heat of (genuine) argument, on any topic, sometimes HIDDEN GEMS can come out that benefit THE MAJORITY.
  • #5,314
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:07pm Feb 22, 2023 10:07pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi clemmo, Two similarly sounding questions. Both dealing with completely different aspects. 100% different. But I would certainly agree with what value in Forecasting. I ask myself 'for what purpose forecasting' when we can easily just watch how the market responds at the points of attraction. I'll hang around though
I did come across your 'pocket summary' of the Time Compression concept, TT, and it reminded me of Livermore's primary advice which is to test the market with smaller orders at certain times and see how it reacts. If price acts the way you think it should, add larger trades. If not, get out and wait for better times or even reverse your bias. I haven't read the book yet, but I think this is close to what you're saying here. Forecast, and if the forecast is refuted, make some decision about that?
  • #5,315
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:11pm Feb 22, 2023 10:11pm
However before you clemmo, or any, step aboard this (doomed) ship

let me remind everybody of the origin of the original 'The Flying Dutchman'



Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
Andy/Moody called his thread Flying Dutchman.
I did a quick google and wiki came up with what is obviously Andy's dark humourous side.
The Flying Dutchman is a legendary ghost ship which was said to never be able to make port,
doomed to sail the oceans forever.
(The myth is likely to have originated from the 17th-century Golden Age of the Dutch East India Company)

  • #5,316
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:13pm Feb 22, 2023 10:13pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}
I did come across your 'pocket summary' of the Time Compression concept, TT, and it reminded me of Livermore's primary advice which is to test the market with smaller orders at certain times and see how it reacts. If price acts the way you think it should, add larger trades. If not, get out and wait for better times or even reverse your bias. I haven't read the book yet, but I think this is close to what you're saying here.
Forecast, and if the forecast is refuted, make some decision about that?

Over time I have come to realisation, for myself, that forecast should then next be overshadowed by simple Observation
  • #5,317
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:23pm Feb 22, 2023 10:23pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Over time I have come to realisation, for myself, that forecast should then next be overshadowed by simple Observation
I've often thought that if I could just encode 'simple observation' in an algorithm that I'd have the holy grail, but it seems to not be so simple. I think there are probably some profitable traders who simply ask themselves 'what is happening right now?' and then they trade that, and get out when it's no longer happening. The problem with this is, at certain times, what's happening now is that you just entered the trade, and your liquidity is now on the menu. What's the solution? I thought, maybe stop using market orders? Then you get better prices, but at the expense of missing some moves.
  • #5,318
  • Feb 22, 2023 10:31pm Feb 22, 2023 10:31pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}
I've often thought that if I could just encode 'simple observation' in an algorithm that I'd have the holy grail, but it seems to not be so simple. I think there are probably some profitable traders who simply ask themselves 'what is happening right now?' and then they trade that, and get out when it's no longer happening. The problem with this is, at certain times, what's happening now is that you just entered the trade, and your liquidity is now on the menu. What's the solution? I thought, maybe stop using market orders? Then you get better...


It is very difficult, especially for highly logical & intelligent people I imagine, to find the perfect solution to what you have asked.

As it is how we each look at the market I think, and especially what we think the market is and does.

Anyhow, the link to the book is on your own thread, you could do a brief preview starting at page 85 Prediction & Observation (depending on your pdf viewer)
but it is at that sub title heading ironically or coincidentally which I was maybe only pleased to read as it suited my own similar views at the time.
(jumping on some self acknowledegment is not always smart - but hey, it agreed a little to my thinking lol)

If that don't get to you then the rest of the book won't either I suggest, so a preview will let you know whether you wish to review it on your own interesting thread.
  • #5,319
  • Feb 22, 2023 11:11pm Feb 22, 2023 11:11pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} I've been reading this thread with something like bemusement, waiting for someone to make a falsifiable claim. It took a while but kudos to BWilliam for finally making a forecast. {image} Sadly, they were exactly wrong, and the attentive reader would have been better off trading against this advice. Of course this is only one instance in who knows how many (does anyone know? who's counting?), so it's of limited importance. Still I must ask. What value forecasting? What value 'master algo'? I'll see myself out.
Clemmo

Have you ever watched The Matrix?

The market is the blonde girl in the red dress!

It's an illusion!

Just a construct designed to encourage poor choice decisions.
  • #5,320
  • Feb 22, 2023 11:15pm Feb 22, 2023 11:15pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} I've often thought that if I could just encode 'simple observation' in an algorithm that I'd have the holy grail, but it seems to not be so simple. I think there are probably some profitable traders who simply ask themselves 'what is happening right now?' and then they trade that, and get out when it's no longer happening. The problem with this is, at certain times, what's happening now is that you just entered the trade, and your liquidity is now on the menu. What's the solution? I thought, maybe stop using market orders? Then you get better...
It's not simple and that's what no one seems to be doing, even though it does kind of have a bit of a 'holy grail' value. But your 'Finance Book club' conspicuously does not include any pure mathematics textbooks, let alone some more advanced mathematics textbooks. And even those may be deficient but they would get you going?
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