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Flying Dutchman

  • #5,221
  • Edited Feb 19, 2023 6:03am Feb 18, 2023 7:48am | Edited Feb 19, 2023 6:03am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Shabs, I like how you are looking at Price I don't know about you but the Number One thing I look for is Pricing Failing to make a New Low or High If there is then a BoS going against the Low or High I get really interested I know you are probably looking for this but it might help someone to "SEE" {image} {image} {image}
The stronger the structure, the more "weight" I apply to it. If there are Engulf patterns around also that also adds more "weight".

Current & Previous Opens & Closes of Sessions, PDH, PDL, PWH, PWL, etc. are good levels to look at for reactions.

Structure Breaks happen for 2 reasons, either to load up more at a discount or a reversal of direction, usually happens prior to handover to the next session.

So I look not only at BOS but the context & time it occurs.

All ideas are good.

Edit: I understand what you are saying, you are looking for false breaks that trap traders ? I also observe these.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,222
  • Feb 19, 2023 5:55pm Feb 19, 2023 5:55pm
While I'm waiting & watching here for the first of the price expansions that indicate things "may" start moving on a Monday, I thought to myself

WASN'T IT NICE
  • #5,223
  • Feb 19, 2023 5:56pm Feb 19, 2023 5:56pm
Wasn’t it nice for the major global banks and large Wall Street & City Of London dealing houses to think to themselves one day out of the blue.

“Hey what about those poor retail folk who just don’t have access to the money-making tree called Currency Trading”.

Those poor retail folk do not have any realtime access to the options that major businesses have to move their products (by currency) from one country to another in an exchange of paper trades.

They obviously thought it was unfair that us citizens did not have the same option as business so they opened up Forex Currency Trading to us retail traders to help us have some fun ourselves pretending to move money around from one country to another. Even without having a BUSINESS PRODUCT ourselves, that required such a function from us. We can all pretend to be business-folk with a product and do what the big boys do now.

WASN’T IT NICE OF THEM !
  • #5,224
  • Feb 19, 2023 5:58pm Feb 19, 2023 5:58pm
But how then could a retail trader get access to this (apparently) $6 trillion a day Market.

You couldn’t just have us minnows (lol) ringing up Major Tier Banks each half hour to ask what price is available to “try our luck” at buying low or selling high.

With no access to this market then …

WASN’T IT NICE

that smaller Brokerage houses also thought, “It isn’t fair. So out of the goodness of their hearts they invested millions of dollars in technology (hardware & software) with dozens of staff to handle the transactions from us minnows allowing us to do our trading (speculation).

WASN’T IT NICE.
  • #5,225
  • Feb 19, 2023 5:59pm Feb 19, 2023 5:59pm
Now there is plenty of money (well to us minnows) out there in the form of trade tickets that represent our speculating but it costs so much (for a minnow) to buy & sell a currency via a “pair” that it didn’t seem fair.

So the Brokerage houses employed the concept of Leverage where us minnows could now speculate inside their businesses without even having the full sum required to trade full lots that only the larger LPs wish to deal with.

To them 0.01 isn’t worth their time, I imagined, so “new” intermediate businesses popped up to aggregate all the smaller size trades so they could present this aggregation to larger LPs who could then themselves if they wish move it yet again all the way right up to Tier / Interbank where these funds could assist the movement of the billions required by ‘real’ businesses from one country to another by utilising that extra liquidity.

WASN’T IT NICE
  • #5,226
  • Feb 19, 2023 6:01pm Feb 19, 2023 6:01pm
Now whether somewhere “along the line”, one (or all) of the middlemen thought to themselves hey why even move the money Up The Chain just right now.

Why not wait a bit and see what percentage of this retail speculation turned out as a profit to the retail trader or a loss. And if there were losses, was it even necessary to move the retail trades on the “big game” at all.

As with ‘good software’, the middlemen could just aggregate it all and run a risk profile themselves against their ‘current holdings’ to see ‘what might happen next’ to the retail trades ie win or lose. (A bit like a bookie/bookmaker would do back in my good old horseplaying days).

What extra, might now happen, in the ‘higher ups’ to facilitate resultant wins or losses (fakes n shakes lol) for retail I do not think about (any more). It just doesn’t matter to me.

And my opinion now is that IF I have a winner, I do not take any money directly out of another retail traders a/c, just from the aggregate of profit or loss being held ‘higher up’.



So in the end.


WASN’T IS NICE
OF ‘THEM’ to think of us poor minnows missing out and letting us join in the Big Game.

(All just in my imagination of course , trade well folks, trade safe)
  • #5,227
  • Feb 20, 2023 12:23am Feb 20, 2023 12:23am
Very good start to the week, considering that today is a USD holiday. Played into the weakness of the USD, took 8 trades in ASIA, and all ended in green pips (120+). Now the challenge would be not to give them to the market. It will be ME against ME.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Asia Trade (3).jpg Size: 155 KB
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,228
  • Feb 20, 2023 4:19am Feb 20, 2023 4:19am
EJ and GJ both are ranging at the high of the structure. If UJ starts going south, both the GJ and EJ will be runaway trains, considering their ADR. Just an opinion, however, the market will do whatever it wants to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Asia Trade (4).jpg Size: 105 KB
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,229
  • Edited 4:37am Feb 20, 2023 4:27am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting TimeTells
WASN’T IS NICE OF ‘THEM’ to think of us poor minnows missing out and letting us join in the Big Game. (All just in my imagination of course , trade well folks, trade safe)
Most Brokers run B Books as you say, where they are te counter party to your trades, unless you win big consistently.

Some interesting statistics (from 2019) regarding retaill traders :

1. According to BIS’s 2019 triennial survey, trading in FX markets reached an incredible $6.6 trillion per day in April of 2019.

2. Retail Forex trading – that is to say, trading that is done by individuals, accounts for only 5.5% of the entire Forex market.
Large institutions are still getting the biggest slice of the cake – thankfully, it’s an enormous cake.

3. Five businesses maintain a 40% share of the global Forex market, according to Euromoney magazine’s 41st annual FX survey released in 2019.

1 JP Morgan 9.81%
2 Deutsche Bank 8.41%
3 Citi 7.87%
4 XTX Markets 7.22%
5 UBS 6.63%

4. Forex traders are perhaps younger than you’d expect – 27% of forex traders fall into the 18-34 age group.
The 35-44 age group represents 28% of traders, while the 45-54 age group accounts for 21% of traders.
Only 24% of traders are older than 55, and only 9% are older than 65.

5. Men account for 89.1% of forex traders – meaning that only 10.9% of traders are women.

6. Only about 15% of forex traders make a profit.
66% of traders make use of daily charts.
41% of traders average between 9 and 20 trades each month.
45% of traders spend 1-2 hours each day trading, while only 14% spend more than 6 hours per day.

7. There are approximately 10 million forex traders in the world today.
Of those 10 million, 3.2 million are in Asia, and 1.5 million each in Europe and North America. Oceania has 190,000
the UK, as a hub of forex trading, is the leader in this regard, having more than 280,000 online traders

8. Major pairs account for 67.4% of the Forex market’s daily volume.
The 7 major pairs are: USD/EUR, USD/JPY, USD/GBP, USD/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/CNY, and USD/CHF.

9. The most popular trading platform is still the classic MT4, which is used by 85% of traders. The second most popular platform is the MT5,
which is used by only 6% of traders. 70% of traders use a live account, while the other 30% are using demo accounts.

10. 72% of forex traders have no prior experience in trading in other markets.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,230
  • Feb 20, 2023 4:32am Feb 20, 2023 4:32am
Quoting fxpider
EJ and GJ both are ranging at the high of the structure. If UJ starts going south, both the GJ and EJ will be runaway trains, considering their ADR. Just an opinion, however, the market will do whatever it wants to do. {image}
This is another graphic posted a while back that might be useful :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Correlation pairs - behavior.jpg Size: 100 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,231
  • Feb 20, 2023 5:47am Feb 20, 2023 5:47am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} This is another graphic posted a while back that might be useful : {image}
Thank you, Sir.

Truly a picture that says a thousand words.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,232
  • Feb 20, 2023 6:05am Feb 20, 2023 6:05am
Quoting fxpider
EJ and GJ both are ranging at the high of the structure. If UJ starts going south, both the GJ and EJ will be runaway trains, considering their ADR. Just an opinion, however, the market will do whatever it wants to do. {image}
Very sticky PA, not looking promising which is expected due to the US holiday. So decided to TP my positions on UJ and EJ. The setup was nice though.

Can't complain, the day has been very productive. (TOUCH WOOD !!)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: London Trade (4).jpg Size: 111 KB
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,233
  • Feb 20, 2023 7:16am Feb 20, 2023 7:16am
Drawn last night before going to bed @ 11pm from Friday's structure :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-02-20_13h15_30.png Size: 34 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,234
  • Feb 20, 2023 1:54pm Feb 20, 2023 1:54pm
NZDUSD Update for todays Map :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-02-20_19h50_22.png Size: 35 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,235
  • Feb 20, 2023 2:09pm Feb 20, 2023 2:09pm
All Hells seems to have broken loose on the Time and Price Forecasting thread on Trading Journals.

Justfollowing the thread, trying to work out how the "experts" are drawing their charts from.

I don't think any of us gave you or Ian a "rough ride", merely asking you to comment on your charts you posted.

No offence intended to OAPDave, but you are voicing some of my concerns, that you have pointed out here :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-02-20_20h01_34.png Size: 22 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,236
  • Edited 3:26pm Feb 20, 2023 2:50pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} This is another graphic posted a while back that might be useful : {image}
Hi Shabs19,
regarding your image & previous data of 7 major pairs (please see attachment) .. may be we must recalculate the Currency Strength Meter? must we change the NZD with CNY ??
or we just add CNY to the whole calculation, so we know have 8currencies to be calculated ?? (the calculation well become more complex now... ...)
I forget, which one is the better calculator (mql4) to calculate this?
any idea? from BlueRain or Penguin ? or other ??? any clue is welcome... Thank you in advance ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: major_pairs_CNY.jpg Size: 359 KB
  • #5,237
  • Edited 3:32pm Feb 20, 2023 3:17pm | Edited 3:32pm
Quoting newhope
{quote} Hi Shabs19, regarding your image & previous data of 7 major pairs (please see attachment) .. may be we must recalculate the Currency Strength Meter? must we change the NZD with CNY ?? or we just add CNY to the whole calculation, so we now have 8 currencies to be calculated ?? I forget, which one is the better calculator (mql4) to calculate this? any idea? from BlueRain or Penguin ? or other ??? any clue is welcome... Thank you in advance ... {image}
These Stats compare 2019 to 2022 $ 7.2 Trillion dollars traded on the OTC markets.

USDCNY 6.6% has overtaken USDAUD 5.5% but still below USDGBP 9.5% as a total percentage of traded currencies.

USDRUB & USDCNH are both available on my MT4, though the RUB chart data looks totally unreliable.

Well if China holds these huge reserves of US Dollars, maybe in the form of US treasury bonds, realistically they could dump the dollar overnight causing a tsunami in the currency markets, half a trillion dollars could do some serious damage.


I would say as far as retail traders are concerned, we are about 5.5% of this huge turnover, the majotity of the traded volumre is in the form of FX & Currency swaps between International Banks in the course of business, the Spot currency market is less than 30% of the total volume about $2.1 Trillion and about 5% of that is retail (our pie) about 1 Billion ( 1000,000,000 ).

Source: https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.htm
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,238
  • Feb 20, 2023 5:26pm Feb 20, 2023 5:26pm
Most of the numbers for the CNY are most likely trade related as opposed to speculation - which is where we come in as retail traders.

The NZD has fallen quite a ways in the list from last time. An alternative, if you do use some form of currency strength, would be to drop the NZD and go with just 6. Or just leave it as is and adjust weights, if your strength method allows that.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,239
  • Feb 20, 2023 5:34pm Feb 20, 2023 5:34pm
Quoting spzd
Most of the numbers for the CNY are most likely trade related as opposed to speculation - which is where we come in as retail traders. The NZD has fallen quite a ways in the list from last time. An alternative, if you do use some form of currency strength, would be to drop the NZD and go with just 6. Or just leave it as is and adjust weights, if your strength method allows that.
Could it be because Russia was in the G8 , but since been dropped & Russia officially left in 2017 making it the G7

So Forex traders look only at 7 currencies for it's calculations.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5,240
  • Feb 20, 2023 5:56pm Feb 20, 2023 5:56pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Could it be because Russia was in the G8 , but since been dropped & Russia officially left in 2017 making it the G7 So Forex traders look only at 7 currencies for it's calculations.
I think it has always (as far as I know) been just the 7 majors. The RUB and CNY, along with the other "emerging" economies ZAR, INR, BRL were never a part of any currency strength.

For trading purposes, if you use something like that, I would think you would use the 7 as they have been or devise something for what you do trade.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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