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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,961
  • Oct 22, 2022 10:24am Oct 22, 2022 10:24am
Nothing to do with trading -but I have t find a desktop Pc for a ten year old grandson. He plays 'Minecraft' and other little games on his ipad and wants to be like his school chums who have desk tops !!
For about £1000. Future proof for his schoolwork, future A Levels etc. Any suggestions please?
Uk based - John Lewis stores maybe?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,962
  • Oct 22, 2022 12:31pm Oct 22, 2022 12:31pm
Forex Traders better than Poker Traders at these Skills :

Excellent Record Keeping Habits

On-going learning & knowledge development

Developing a strategy & continuously refining it

Discretionary Judgement

No So Good at :

Finding an Edge ( even if they know what one is). LOL
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,963
  • Oct 23, 2022 12:40pm Oct 23, 2022 12:40pm
Something to change up the discussion perhaps.
Are Fibs part of the "Organized" market behaviour or is price just random and chart patterns are useless ?


A few SPX charts with some "projections" from May and screenshotted along the way.
Nothing fancy just Fibs with an understanding of typical Measured Moves "wave" size and behaviours.

Measured Moves and Fibs are a big part of my regular analysis when im looking for trade setups/scenarios.
I use the Fibs on most TFs as well as the MMs... THe market being fractal they will all overlay and be part
of the bigger TF picture.

Anyways these charts have been a guideline for me when im trading intraday..always aware of the bigger picture.

These same charts have been shared with others privately like Pete/TimeTells all the way back to the first in this series. So they
have not been altered to fit different outcomes.

I dont try to predict the markets I just mark up levels,MMs,Fibs,Patterns on the higher TFs 4hr D W and if they begin to play out
I just follow with tight risk mgmt...as we can never be sure what will happen next.

Market Mechanics
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,964
  • Oct 23, 2022 3:09pm Oct 23, 2022 3:09pm
Quoting bluesteele
Something to change up the discussion perhaps. Are Fibs part of the "Organized" market behaviour or is price just random and chart patterns are useless ? Blue {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
I used to use Fibs when I was spreadbetting Shares at the beginning.

When I switched to Forex, I didn't find them as useful, more confusion with what levels work & on what ? So ditched them.

I use simple indicators to mark key daily & weekly levels and hand draw S & R levels each day prior to mkt opens.

Basically a battle plan. Sun Tzu's quote :

4. “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,965
  • Oct 23, 2022 7:06pm Oct 23, 2022 7:06pm
Nothing is random, after that huge drop (GBP/JPY) price comes back to daily open.
  • #3,966
  • Oct 24, 2022 5:21am Oct 24, 2022 5:21am
Didn't trade Cable this morning. I couldn't make head or tail of price action. It had already moved down to close the gap on far left of chart when I looked at screen at 7am. Marked in some levels in yellow. The green and pink lies/rectangles are drawn on by a Tradeview chart app.
So I left Cable alone.
Any thoughts chaps ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,967
  • Oct 24, 2022 7:02am Oct 24, 2022 7:02am
Quoting turnip15
Didn't trade Cable this morning. I couldn't make head or tail of price action. It had already moved down to close the gap on far left of chart when I looked at screen at 7am. Marked in some levels in yellow. The green and pink lies/rectangles are drawn on by a Tradeview chart app. So I left Cable alone. Any thoughts chaps ? {image}
As a homework project.....

Looking at it in hindsight A-B-C are possibly trades off the pink negative FVGap ?
"X" is a failed short of a pinky negative FVGap?
The others are standard possible channel trade entries without FVGap consideration.

Comments anyone?
Thanks for your patience
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,968
  • Oct 24, 2022 7:32am Oct 24, 2022 7:32am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} As a homework project..... Looking at it in hindsight A-B-C are possibly trades off the pink negative FVGap ? "X" is a failed short of a pinky negative FVGap? The others are standard possible channel trade entries without FVGap consideration. Comments anyone? Thanks for your patience {image}
C would have been my only entry. Retest of the intermediate high at B with signal. 2nd bear bar open.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,969
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:02am Oct 24, 2022 8:02am
Quoting bluesteele
Something to change up the discussion perhaps. Are Fibs part of the "Organized" market behaviour or is price just random and chart patterns are useless ? A few SPX charts with some "projections" from May and screenshotted along the way. Nothing fancy just Fibs with an understanding of typical Measured Moves "wave" size and behaviours. Measured Moves and Fibs are a big part of my regular analysis when im looking for trade setups/scenarios. I use the Fibs on most TFs as well as the MMs... THe market being fractal they will all overlay and be part...
Yes..I do like this kind of thinking. I'm not so sure about the various fib levels...sometimes I think they are "painted" on the charts to keep belief in them ..as I know a lot of people use the various levels. Apart from the 50% level. It's important, but maybe not because it's a fib? It's a human psychological level isn't it? When is something good value to buy..when it's half price etc? Anyway, 1:1's are all over the charts, fractally..in all timeframes...so much so that to me it proves these markets (all asset classes) are controlled and in no way random.

It got me asking myself about measured moves. ...

1. If we project a measured move in HTF (like you have done), can we drill down to LTF and find another probable measured move that is likely to happen to take us to that HTF target?

2. How far back is the pullback likely to be in the Measured Move? The example you posted is a perfect example of what I like to see...price pulls back to a level a couple of times (painting fake resistance) then the third time it pushes up to take stops (and hence fill more orders) for the 2nd move down (chart below).

3. Through years of trading we are taught that the only way to view this random thing called price is by applying the constant of time to it. What if it's actually price that's the predictable thing and time is the big illusion to throw us all off guard? I've been thinking about this last point deeply. I know it sounds like it cannot be but the more I think about it..is time just there to mess with our heads? (And I don't want to confuse time with timing...I realise that there more advantageous times to trade during trading day cycle, but I just mean time overall...days, weeks, months, years?). Candlesticks - they are a product of time of course...but a different time frame produces a different candle pattern.

Interested to hear other thoughts
DM
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  • #3,970
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:45am Oct 24, 2022 8:45am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} As a homework project..... Looking at it in hindsight A-B-C are possibly trades off the pink negative FVGap ? "X" is a failed short of a pinky negative FVGap? The others are standard possible channel trade entries without FVGap consideration. Comments anyone? Thanks for your patience {image}
Looking at the 5m chart too close to the screen , zoom out, the level to watch was @ 1.13699 as seen on M15 or M30 charts.

Though retested 3 times, UK traders entering the market made the move happen.

EURAUD was the chart to be on, clear Strength vs weakness.

IMHO.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,971
  • Oct 24, 2022 9:11am Oct 24, 2022 9:11am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Looking at the 5m chart too close to the screen , zoom out, the level to watch was @ 1.13699 as seen on M15 or M30 charts. Though retested 3 times, UK traders entering the market made the move happen. EURAUD was the chart to be on, clear Strength vs weakness. IMHO.
I had the 1.13699 marked up but I see the line appears to have shifted up slightly. I noticed the tests but failed to convert the seeing into understanding and acting. So missed out due to my lack of experience. Pleased though that I can spot levels - just need to know when to act on them
Work in progress.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,972
  • Oct 24, 2022 9:30am Oct 24, 2022 9:30am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} I had the 1.13699 marked up but I see the line appears to have shifted up slightly. I noticed the tests but failed to convert the seeing into understanding and acting. So missed out due to my lack of experience. Pleased though that I can spot levels - just need to know when to act on them Work in progress.
When Price fails to Hold Highs, it means Buyers are exhausted, Note always at UK Opens (very often) Professionals encourage retail to go Long. (M15 candle shows this clearly). That is the cue to SELL.
Selling later on though it might have worked, your RR would be very poor as price often comes back to hunt stops / break evens.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,973
  • Oct 24, 2022 9:44am Oct 24, 2022 9:44am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} When Price fails to Hold Highs, it means Buyers are exhausted, Note always at UK Opens (very often) Professionals encourage retail to go Long. (M15 candle shows this clearly). That is the cue to SELL. Selling later on though it might have worked, your RR would be very poor as price often comes back to hunt stops / break evens.
And ties in with Stacey Burkes break of previous formation high (PFH)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,974
  • Oct 24, 2022 9:53am Oct 24, 2022 9:53am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} And ties in with Stacey Burkes break of previous formation high (PFH)
I have only recently watched one video of SB, after people here were talking about him.

My belief has always been is the Price on your chart is always right, reflecting all the Buyers / Sellers actions, positions, beliefs.

You need to study just one pair exclusively for at least one month of data, dont limit yourself to one timframe only, to learn patterns of behaviour that repeat over & over again.

And then watch that month again & again. It's repetitive & boring but thats what markets are. The charts are all the Maths you need.

Whatever you call these formations is up to you, so that you learn to spot them easily.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,975
  • Edited 6:49pm Oct 24, 2022 6:38pm | Edited 6:49pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
Yes..I do like this kind of thinking. I'm not so sure about the various fib levels...sometimes I think they are "painted" on the charts to keep belief in them

Hi D-M,

Good to see you posting pal.

I agree with you here and it takes me back to where George showed us on his charts one day in a terrific discussion with Andy, Kev and myself,
where he demonstrated explicitly that the whole market, as I remember, runs inside a fibo base, session after session and day after day.


One of us then asked George why he/we didn't just trade the market in that particular way.

He answered that it wasn't precise enough for him

Do you know how many hours since that day, where I have thought deeply (by myself lol) trying to get a handle on his answer.
I have still arrived at nothing definitive.
The best I have come up with is that all Fibo Tools require one important variable.

That variable is the
TRADER THEMSELVES

(tho I am asked not to mention that phrase in some places , where traders merely seek a "certainty of answer" to their current confusions.)


What I came up with, though lacking it still might be, is that

A Fibo Tool requires the Trader themselves (ooops, there I go again ) to

Select their timeframe of choice AND exactly at what point (expressed later as a Horizontal Line lol)
to put the 0% and the 100% somewhere of their choosing.

Each trader might therefore have a different 0/100, and/or on different timeframes, as their personal edge.
Just some food for thought.

all the best D-M
  • #3,976
  • Oct 24, 2022 7:55pm Oct 24, 2022 7:55pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Looking at the 5m chart too close to the screen , zoom out, the level to watch was @ 1.13699 as seen on M15 or M30 charts. Though retested 3 times, UK traders entering the market made the move happen. EURAUD was the chart to be on, clear Strength vs weakness. IMHO.
Hi Shabs，
Is 1.13699 open/close/high/low price?
  • #3,977
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:09pm Oct 24, 2022 8:09pm
Quoting bluesteele
Something to change up the discussion perhaps. Are Fibs part of the "Organized" market behaviour or is price just random and chart patterns are useless ? A few SPX charts with some "projections" from May and screenshotted along the way. Nothing fancy just Fibs with an understanding of typical Measured Moves "wave" size and behaviours. Measured Moves and Fibs are a big part of my regular analysis when im looking for trade setups/scenarios. I use the Fibs on most TFs as well as the MMs... THe market being fractal they will all overlay and be part...
Every time I look at these charts ...

After I finish with the 5-minute, and that may still be a while, I think I will try a basket of longer-term trades off the daily using the same basic methodology. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Especially when I went through showing my wife the fractal nature of a couple various instruments in my continuing, yet vain, attempt to get her to trade. .... whew, that was a long sentence

So yeah, I am having a blast. Have to laugh that this debate still goes on. There are so many who continue blindly down their path of dead-end trading. I have created for myself the simplest damn method that can be (at least based on how I used to trade). All thanks to the likes of this thread, its predecessor threads, and all the folks who have contributed.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,978
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:19pm Oct 24, 2022 8:19pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Yes..I do like this kind of thinking. I'm not so sure about the various fib levels...sometimes I think they are "painted" on the charts to keep belief in them ..as I know a lot of people use the various levels. Apart from the 50% level. It's important, but maybe not because it's a fib? It's a human psychological level isn't it? When is something good value to buy..when it's half price etc? Anyway, 1:1's are all over the charts, fractally..in all timeframes...so much so that to me it proves these markets (all asset classes) are controlled...
Hey DM ...

Thanks for the very well thought out questions....

1. If we assume that the market is fractal..and im sure most of use all agree on that. I would "simply" on that basis say yes...Now in the real world or in my charting I dont show it but I am always measuring all the swings on a 4hr Daily and sometimes Weekly chart... With that said Yes I have definitely gotten into big trades on small TFs using The larger MMs and smaller ones...

Of course we never know IF we are in that bigger move..or if the pattern will fail and develop a new one. I know this is nothing new to you.... Just my thoughts typing out loud My problem is catching the Big Move..at the low or high end of the MM.... Many times I get the move but staying in I find for me is the most difficult thing to do...It also depends IMO on your trading account sizing etc. Whether your trading a prop fund or your own capital I find for me it makes a difference in how I take profits and DD whether its the prop account or live.

As well When for example the price is reaching the termination of the MM as estimated.. I will incorporate other methods for entry and look for another method to get me IF they coincide...Which is a big reason I have adopted Stacey Burkes methods especially the Day count 3 days rise fall etc and reversal,,,,,

At that point I am always cognozant of the size of swings moreso on the 5 and 15m TFs...and of course measuring ADR...I dont use any ADR indis I do the visual and pull the highs and lows.

So in a long winded way YES most definitely I am looking at and for lower TF MMs to get me into the bigger move but not solely based on the MM if that makes sense. Sounds like alot but really not..It just takes a little time to mark up the larger TF charts and do your normal trading on the lower (if thats your thing)

As well many of the swings will form certain patterns like the Double tops and bottoms and wedges etc..Which I as well use or am aware of the formation...

I will toss up some other charts that may help clarify some of this

2..Well it differs and thats where chart time I guess comes in...For example in my chart that retracement back to your rectangle the upswing....take a look left of the very first move down and that swing up is quite similar...ok just pulled the chart measured it and lo n behold the Swings marked with Pink seem to be a reoccuring pattern at present 450 -500 pts approx. But as for trading the move again it comes down to using very reasoanble risk levels with stops (for me at least) and just pulling the trigger ...I use very light entries and then add as the move progresses and its confirmed....

3. A very interesting thought and I am inclined to believe there is something to that

usdchf audusd both have had some great opportunites off of MMs on the large TFs,,,and some other pairs... I will try to post up some of those charts as well at some point here...

But heres the SPX chart with some new markings that may help clarify Q2...

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,979
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:20pm Oct 24, 2022 8:20pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I have only recently watched one video of SB, after people here were talking about him. My belief has always been is the Price on your chart is always right, reflecting all the Buyers / Sellers actions, positions, beliefs. You need to study just one pair exclusively for at least one month of data, dont limit yourself to one timframe only, to learn patterns of behaviour that repeat over & over again. And then watch that month again & again. It's repetitive & boring but thats what markets are. The charts are all the Maths you need. Whatever...
is it interesting a man brings out a video on what i have been telling traders for 20 years , but 99% of learners find it to hard to do the simplistic things to learn but prefer to wander around looking for some thing hard , good thread great post
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,980
  • Oct 24, 2022 8:35pm Oct 24, 2022 8:35pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Every time I look at these charts ... After I finish with the 5-minute, and that may still be a while, I think I will try a basket of longer-term trades off the daily using the same basic methodology. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Especially when I went through showing my wife the fractal nature of a couple various instruments in my continuing, yet vain, attempt to get her to trade. .... whew, that was a long sentence So yeah, I am having a blast. Have to laugh that this debate still goes on. There are so many who continue...
Very happy to hear that In reference to my post I just put up...It may sound like alot..but its really not....Mark up the swings ...Mark the first swing you see that looks "common" in the TF your looking at and the pull it over the chart measuring all the moves and you will find they do repeat some uncannily the same others very very close... Really it can be like selling or buying a PFH or PFL... I guess in thought sometimes I will just take a position on the 4hr or daily strictly at the top or bottom of a measured move with a really small entry as they need room and I prefer lol to keep DD very tight...and again these measured moves can show up as simple DTs DBs etc... as well the typical pin bar or hammer at the end of one of these moves off Numbers then you have something that can be really scalable..

IMO there are endless trades to take every single day and I cant even begin to trade all of them..its just too all consuming for my lifestyle.

And I must say on reference to Petes post ..George...WOW....charting skills and an eye that just sees the swings....sees divergence lol (no indi needed) his FIB skills are exceptional to say the least..over the top exceptional.... The way we look at a 100 pip box with a 25-50 pip SH outside....he cant talk fast enough to point these things as the chart is just scrolling lol....amazing amazing chart work !

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
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