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  • #3,681
  • Oct 2, 2022 11:48am Oct 2, 2022 11:48am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Bilal, you asked for a response to your question. I suggest you read the responses and see the charts, then ask yourself what do you read/see/identify from the replies that might help you with your question. I gave you a limited response and reserve my comment since it most likely offend members as usual. Cheers
Hi BW

No one minds as long as what you saying is backed up with charts, and even better one chart with annotations for easy understanding as it gets difficult to understand long paragraphs, honestly.

and in case something is a secret dont open the subject, dont even give pieces to the puzzle.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,682
  • Oct 2, 2022 11:51am Oct 2, 2022 11:51am
Quoting bilal1947
Hi BW No one minds as long as what you saying is backed up with charts, and even better one chart with annotations for easy understanding as it gets difficult to understand long paragraphs, honestly. and in case something is a secret dont open the subject, dont even give pieces to the puzzle. regards bilal
Hi Bilal, comments(no secret) as an expression of opinion don't need charts. And if you miss my edited line, I repeat here. Ask your question in real time on G$ interactive thread. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,683
  • Oct 2, 2022 11:58am Oct 2, 2022 11:58am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Kevin All good Thank you Kevin for the very detailed reply with properly annotated charts, all in all LTF trading doesn't require fundamentals, i too taken the lions share 120pip down trend for which i gave the breakdown here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14159436 but was scared to buy being overall bearish bias, so i thought to have a bit of brainstorming so it will help me understand how others handle it. Thank you again regards bilal
Hey B,,,,
Totally agree on the Fundies all the way around..But thats just me and whatever works for a trader is what they should use..My way is my way and I respect others methods completely....

My only suggestion is BOOK profits ! We can always re enter...Or use a more mechanized method like the 8EMA H/L channel. Really depends on your individual plans...

Youve gotten some good responses for everyone to take something from

Cheers Bilal

K
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,684
  • Edited 4:06pm Oct 2, 2022 3:25pm | Edited 4:06pm
"The Thursday Friday Monday pattern is in play.
There are rumours that Credit Suisse is in trouble. Those are naturally unsubstantiated rumours.
However, the way the US indices sold off Friday night could suggest something is stressing the system.
I have been informed the FED have called an extraordinary meeting tomorrow at 11am Eastern.
One can't but wonder if there is liquidity coming into the system. It could explain some of the currency moves Friday night." Trader Tom

I have mentioned this a number of times and have used very successfully trading on Mondays..

Quite simply IF Fri can not trade above Thurs HIGH..Monday will surpass Fridays Low and/or DB it ....Over 30 years of data tells us this happens 90-95% of the time.

Cheers
Blue

BUT again anything can happen nothing is 100%
Edit: I should say as well rumours with Deutsche Bank being in similar boat as CS... Would be catastrophic to the likes nothing we have seen I believe if happens. Far bigger than Lehman...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX500H1 OCT 3 2022 TH FR MO PATTERN.png Size: 37 KB
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,685
  • Oct 2, 2022 3:33pm Oct 2, 2022 3:33pm
Quoting bluesteele
"The Thursday Friday Monday pattern is in play. There are rumours that Credit Suisse is in trouble. Those are naturally unsubstantiated rumours. However, the way the US indices sold off Friday night could suggest something is stressing the system. I have been informed the FED have called an extraordinary meeting tomorrow at 11am Eastern. One can't but wonder if there is liquidity coming into the system. It could explain some of the currency moves Friday night." Trader Tom I have mentioned this a number of times and have used very successfully trading...
hi blue. these stats are for indices only right? Is DB double bottom
  • #3,686
  • Oct 2, 2022 3:53pm Oct 2, 2022 3:53pm
This has been bubbling up for a few weeks, but the more someone denies, usually means something bad is about to happen. Watch for a domino effect among European banks?

Credit Suisse CEO Touts 'Strong Liquidity Position' As Market Panics Over Soaring Default Swaps | ZeroHedge
  • #3,687
  • Oct 2, 2022 4:04pm Oct 2, 2022 4:04pm
Quoting angelofx
{quote} hi blue. these stats are for indices only right? Is DB double bottom
Yes and Yes

Wouldnt surprise me if theres a pattern on currencies...

Another pattern as I think of patterns ..Is first day of month setting the monthly High or Low.. I was showing Timetells my backtesting of that
on the GJ as one example..and its a very high probability event...How you trade it and when to get in is another story..but suffice it to say there are all
sorts of patterns..Seasonality Calendar patterns etc pertaining to days of week month etc.

It just comes to the point that when is enough enough ?? a guy can chase patterns and theories and optimization to the cows come home and does it get one any further...chasing the elusive last 10-20%... BUT lol... I do use some

All the best
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,688
  • Oct 2, 2022 4:21pm Oct 2, 2022 4:21pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Yes and Yes Wouldnt surprise me if theres a pattern on currencies... Another pattern as I think of patterns ..Is first day of month setting the monthly High or Low.. I was showing Timetells my backtesting of that on the GJ as one example..and its a very high probability event...How you trade it and when to get in is another story..but suffice it to say there are all sorts of patterns..Seasonality Calendar patterns etc pertaining to days of week month etc. It just comes to the point that when is enough enough ?? a guy can chase patterns...
That's why you need to limit it to frequently repeatable patterns. Continual research is fine, but trading needs to be stable.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,689
  • Oct 2, 2022 4:27pm Oct 2, 2022 4:27pm
Bwilliam correct me if i'm wrong, is EJ weekly open 141.48(which is also the monthly open) a demarcation zone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,690
  • Edited 6:43pm Oct 2, 2022 6:23pm | Edited 6:43pm
Quoting angelofx
Bwilliam correct me if i'm wrong, is EJ weekly open 141.48(which is also the monthly open) a demarcation zone? {image}
Yes, the exact demarcation is 140.9. This means Fridays market low tested and close above last week.

The pink line on your chart shows another major demarcation where market stopped last Friday. Big decision value statement from here.

Market is cautiously approaching the intervention level. Be extra careful since this might attract another round of BOJ activity. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,691
  • Oct 2, 2022 6:42pm Oct 2, 2022 6:42pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Yes, the exact demarcation is 140.9. This means Fridays market low tested and close above last week. The pink line on your chart shows another major demarcation where market stopped last Friday. Big decision value statement from here. Cheers
yes, i agree with 140.9 and the pink line(july open) i was investigating 140.6 and then came the edit... thank you.
  • #3,692
  • Oct 2, 2022 6:43pm Oct 2, 2022 6:43pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote}
Yes and Yes Wouldnt surprise me if theres a pattern on currencies... Another pattern as I think of patterns ..Is first day of month setting the monthly High or Low..
I was showing Timetells my backtesting of that on the GJ as one example..and its a very high probability event...How you trade it and when to get in is another story..but suffice it to say there are all sorts of patterns..Seasonality Calendar patterns etc pertaining to days of week month etc. It just comes to the point that when is enough enough ?? a guy can chase...

big post, sorry, no other way (for me) to do it

Hi Kev,

Great stats and cheers for that detailed info pal, thank you
All this raises good questions, I’ll try and address a few.

Patterns & Line Trading

The way that I would approach Line Trading, as a new trader is,
(and there’s a few more lines lol that weren’t on the chart I posted here)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14160930

a few more Lines like,
George’s Swing Targets, that develop newly intra-day but ALSO have a foorptint left from prior sessions,
or the already set-in-stone Lines like the Previous Monthly Hi & Lo

- and see Kev’s List here for some more
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14160866

as a new trader is that, imo ……….

Lines or Patterns don’t do a damn thing to price … BY THEMSELVES … on a Chart.

They essentially just sit there whilst, wonderfully, most Lines are known IN ADVANCE to a trader
(their greatest asset imho).

so

IT IS WHAT THE MARKET, AND OTHER TRADERS THEN DO
in, around, TO and FROM lines that gets my observational interest going as a Line Trader.


Once that simple understanding of lines is grasped then Lines take on a life of their own.

The OTHER thing that really gets my trade interest going is when there is a …..

CONFLUENCE OF LINES or REPEATING PATTERNS all “lining up”


For example, on GJ last Friday there was a single Line interest that grew into a MULTI-LINE CONFLUENCE

Monthly Piv Point PP, the Daily R1, the BRN .000 ….. and then …. a 15m Triple Top thrown in too lol

all happening in the …
“same street locality just a few houses from each other” (a market analogy lol)


I remember skype-texting Blue (Kev) at the time & laughing that all we needed now was the BOJ to intervene lol (I was just joking) and,

then Whoosh a 100 pip drop in price making for a great trading day. I was closed out, flat & done then on Friday before lunch in Oz and did not return for London or NY. While on my Saturday morning I then saw the Market ran the “same street block” again UP & DOWN for the about same amount of pips again lol.

Market Mechanics repetition at its finest.

Were the fundamentals Running The Show when that Market ran price UP and then DOWN and then UP again all on the same day, I do not know,
but the Repeating Market Mechanics is what I do see in the wash-up at the end of sessions or next day.

So again, a Line does not move the market, imo, IT CAN “attract and bring in other traders” who may see the Line doing something that their bias tells them, which could be BUY or SELL it’s not just a one way thing.

Then we might also get a “COLLECTION OF VARIOUS TRADERS” at Lines on a chart with some being
on-the-spot-scalpers doing what they do well, some are intra-day swing traders watching & waiting for hi’s & lo’s, some are longer-term position players setting up multiple trades maybe on their weekly/monthly views.

This COLLECTION of new traders all entering the market is compounded when there is a

CONFLUENCE of multiple lines or patterns that each single-style trader has as their point of market reference, and when they ALL ARRIVE at the SAME SPOT at the SAME TIME you can get some interesting market action occur.

As I see it that is the REAL beauty of the repeating MARKET MECHANICS playing out for me.

Trade well, trade safe folks.
  • #3,693
  • Oct 2, 2022 6:59pm Oct 2, 2022 6:59pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} big post, sorry, no other way (for me) to do it Hi Kev, Great stats and cheers for that detailed info pal, thank you All this raises good questions, I’ll try and address a few. Patterns & Line Trading The way that I would approach Line Trading, as a new trader is, (and there’s a few more lines lol that weren’t on the chart I posted here) https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14160930 a few more Lines like, George’s Swing Targets, that develop newly intra-day but ALSO have a foorptint left from prior...
Welcome back Pete.
You harp on "market mechanics" just as Bwilliam harps on value intent, demarcation, etc. We'll get it someday
  • #3,694
  • Oct 2, 2022 7:06pm Oct 2, 2022 7:06pm
Quoting angelofx
{quote}
Welcome back Pete. You harp on "market mechanics" just as Bwilliam harps on value intent, demarcation, etc. We'll get it someday

Hahaaa, hi Angelo, cheers pal

Yes you will get it mate. All will. Don't rush it. And once a trader sees it, the market mechanics, they cannot NOT see it again.
  • #3,695
  • Oct 2, 2022 7:21pm Oct 2, 2022 7:21pm
Quoting angelofx
{quote}
Welcome back Pete. You harp on "market mechanics"

Here's another quick one, Angelo, an example of market mechanics

This is a market behaviour prior to market action.

I always assume this is a point, the Inflection Point (can go on for 5 hrs lol, some "point" hahaa), where all traders are sitting out their current trades some in small profit some in small DD, when the Market needs New money/traders coming in. And they will.

How long did it take for the market to react from this point on a chart. Too long for me, I'm in bed by New York lol. Bur no surpirse to me the next day when i get up to see what the market did, the market mechanics as i call it.

Hang in there folks. It took years till I see things, and not see these things ALL AT ONCE if you know what I mean, it was gradual then composite.


So when did it happen, what happened and what led up to 'something' happening (at inflection)?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14154152
  • #3,696
  • Edited 8:06pm Oct 2, 2022 7:33pm | Edited 8:06pm
Quoting GEfx
This has been bubbling up for a few weeks, but the more someone denies, usually means something bad is about to happen. Watch for a domino effect among European banks? Credit Suisse CEO Touts 'Strong Liquidity Position' As Market Panics Over Soaring Default Swaps | ZeroHedge
Hi GEfx, I expect Central Banks activity to respond to Powell's stance in an orderly fashion over this last quarter. I don't foresee any dramatic cascading collapse on the horizon yet. Which is not in the interest for everyone who have their fair share of domestic problems to take care of. This issue may play out 2nd half next year. The immediate one in front is the energy gap this last quarter. Cheers

***bitcoin looks ominously bad unless something happens this week.
Know what you trade
  • #3,697
  • Oct 2, 2022 8:07pm Oct 2, 2022 8:07pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hi Whitesta.... Spzd is correct.... from 00s to 00s always...Price will go in and out of the box as per normal behavior...Always at somepoint it will "breakout" to a new 100 pip box...Some pairs as we know can move multiple hundreds per day. The easiest way I found to look at 100 pip boxes is zoom out and look at bigger picture and How Price Reacts around the boxes. WE know that generally stop hunts are 25-50 pips.. Can they be more or less.. Sure sometimes alot more.. Thats why we enter with confirmations or are prepared to use SL ASAP.....
Thanks Blue.
  • #3,698
  • Oct 2, 2022 8:20pm Oct 2, 2022 8:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi GEfx, I expect Central Banks activity to respond to Powell's stance in an orderly fashion over this last quarter. I don't foresee any dramatic cascading collapse on the horizon yet. Which is not in the interest for everyone who have their fair share of domestic problems to take care of. This issue may play out 2nd half next year. The immediate one in front is the energy gap this last quarter. Cheers ***bitcoin looks ominously bad unless something happens this week.
There was this master trader who is so into fundamental analysis that I have known sometime ago who sold BTC.

His own words in toto:

"My Bitcoin Short Trade Since October 13, 2021.
Trade Plan Till the end of the Year 2022.
Take Profit if the BTC price goes back to $25k.
If not, my target price is still at $7,500 or until the next halving date.
Running Profit: $1,339,111.21
Swap: $119, 527.48"

He is a professional trader with US license.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,699
  • Oct 2, 2022 8:58pm Oct 2, 2022 8:58pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Here's another quick one, Angelo, an example of market mechanics This is a market behaviour prior to market action. I always assume this is a point, the Inflection Point (can go on for 5 hrs lol, some "point" hahaa), where all traders are sitting out their current trades some in small profit some in small DD, when the Market needs New money/traders coming in. And they will. How long did it take for the market to react from this point on a chart. Too long for me, I'm in bed by New York lol. Bur no surpirse to me the next day when i get up...
inflection points are ranges or compressions usually five or more hours in a tight range then you wait until it goes somewhere (george's targets) before you enter a trade back to inflection area or point. Patience is key!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: INFLECTION ZONE.png Size: 185 KB
  • #3,700
  • Oct 2, 2022 9:06pm Oct 2, 2022 9:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi GEfx, I expect Central Banks activity to respond to Powell's stance in an orderly fashion over this last quarter. I don't foresee any dramatic cascading collapse on the horizon yet. Which is not in the interest for everyone who have their fair share of domestic problems to take care of. This issue may play out 2nd half next year. The immediate one in front is the energy gap this last quarter. Cheers ***bitcoin looks ominously bad unless something happens this week.
Hi BWilliam. I ask the question because the breakage from Fed rate increases is starting to develop (e.g., BOJ intervening in the market, then BOE reversing course with more QE, and possibly Credit Swiss next). I've noticed a few more things that seem unusual and worthy of attention about the markets and international relations/politics. It's a good idea to keep an eye on the news, and maybe trade with stops but not limits for a while. There will be more surprises in the next few weeks/months. We want everyone here to trade safe while making money. Don't let the news ruin your day!
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