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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,321
  • Sep 13, 2022 4:39am Sep 13, 2022 4:39am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} Thanks Bluesteele, I am still following the charts u shared. Trying to be very picky with trades. Also watching Stacey Burke's videos. Working out well so far. There are more winners than losers and trying to keep the stop loss to a minimum. If the analysis is wrong then there is no point hoping for the trade to go my way. The waiting part is the hardest and not being trigger happy. Thats where time comes in. Its always good to come and watch charts at certain times. Equity opens are the best times as said by Bluesteele. Trade well...
I can remember following an entry exit method. Simple to visualise. Hah ! All I had to do was enter on one signal and exit on another. But.......I was in and out of so many trades, so often ( Overtrading,) that I ripped my little account to shreds. I looked at the charts and saw that had I followed the approach I would have made money but by being frightened into jumping ship every time the price turned, momentarily, against me my account bled to death via a thousand cuts. On demo I would sit there and watch price tick away, up and down but not hitting a stop or exit signal. Some trades would lose but the winners ( on demo) would outweigh the losers. Now, when going "live" is when the problems began: brain and logic were replaced by emotion and panic leading to overtrading and losses. The chart did not lie: it was littered with unnecessary entries and exits on every flicker of price action. I carried out an exercise, suggested on another thread, to enter on a signal and sit there until an opposite signal triggered. Bloody difficult even then but helped by the fact that I was consciously "watching and listening" to myself. Now I am very selective, and limiting trading times is a great help because having no trades for a couple of hours is okay because I can then look at the US session. In other words I can concentrate for two hours, then shut down and do something else ( usually a task found for me by my good wife.)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,322
  • Sep 13, 2022 5:02am Sep 13, 2022 5:02am
Manual close of sell positions.

This trade feels uneasy. Looks like there is fair value at LO. The range has more room, this is not a no-option trade yet or perhaps I am blind.

Perhaps better to wait at CPI.

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,323
  • Sep 13, 2022 5:03am Sep 13, 2022 5:03am
Quoting whitesta
GBP/ JPY and EUR/JPY trades yesterday London session. Lots of patience is required to identify the HS and Ls. Both off RNs, Time, PFH, Pins etc. {image} {image}
PFH ? On your first chart is that the peak immediately to the left of your entry arrow ?


The second chart - was entry below high of neighbouring pink rectangle/session?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,324
  • Sep 13, 2022 5:57am Sep 13, 2022 5:57am
@Whitesta

Have I drawn in correctly those "sweet spots" with the indicator for Tradingview that you sent me please?
Cheers.
Uk price is in a range -so far -above US highs?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,325
  • Edited 8:24am Sep 13, 2022 6:58am | Edited 8:24am
I am watching the SP500 and noticed a bounce off the high from yesterday's US session for the SP500, that was created twice today, during open of the UK session at around 7am -AND the second bounce during the UK EQUITY open at 8am. This a Re -test or Liquidity run anyone?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,326
  • Sep 13, 2022 8:57am Sep 13, 2022 8:57am
Someone said the CPI usually produces 80 - 140 pips movement within the first 1 hour of release !
Including SP500, Nasdaq etc.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,327
  • Edited 9:24am Sep 13, 2022 9:11am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} E$ will continue to try to get to 1.022 and try trade above the target registered on 11 Aug. The professionals are watching and waiting like vultures.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I knew it on Sep1. I have precise metrics on Sep6. Cheers
I'm confused here i must admit.
Ok, the 1.022 level was declared on Sep1. It went down roughly 170 pips before rising 330ish and almost hitting 1.022. before falling circa 200 again.
I know u don't want to talk about the trade management side of this and of course I accept your decision, but I'm trying to figure out in my own mind how the hell I would trade that ? Anybody care to discuss?

EDIT..to get the volume of longs required then that dip around 6 Sep is a nice place as it will take out all the late August bulls with their 100 point stop losses, but if I was expecting that to happen I wouldn't have entered longs before that

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  • #3,328
  • Edited 10:19am Sep 13, 2022 9:55am | Edited 10:19am
Where you off to Mr Nasdaq ?
Lines in the sand?
BRN ( 12200 maybe) ?

Edit: Stacey warns against trading the news so take care.

Edit of Edit.... He calls it first bounce trading after the news.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,329
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:04am Sep 13, 2022 10:04am
Quoting turnip15
@Whitesta Have I drawn in correctly those "sweet spots" with the indicator for Tradingview that you sent me please? Cheers. Uk price is in a range -so far -above US highs? {image}
Looks good 00s and 50s
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,330
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:14am Sep 13, 2022 10:14am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} {quote} I'm confused here i must admit. Ok, the 1.022 level was declared on Sep1. It went down roughly 170 pips before rising 330ish and almost hitting 1.022. before falling circa 200 again. I know u don't want to talk about the trade management side of this and of course I accept your decision, but I'm trying to figure out in my own mind how the hell I would trade that ? Anybody care to discuss? EDIT..to get the volume of longs required then that dip around 6 Sep is a nice place as it will take out all the late August bulls with...

My personal way of trading is short term. Take what is given in my trade window and not even be concerned with all the other moves.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,331
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:20am Sep 13, 2022 10:20am
Quoting turnip15
Where you off to Mr Nasdaq ? Lines in the sand? BRN ( 12200 maybe) ? Edit: Stacey warns against trading the news so take care. Edit of Edit.... He calls it first bounce trading after the news. {image}
Stacey made a video of the gold trade today after news.
I was just guessing that price would react at BRN but having just seen his video you might agree that he probably adds more experienced reasoning in that he calls the price action - "First Bounce."
Enjoy

Inserted Video
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,332
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:22am Sep 13, 2022 10:22am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} {quote} I'm confused here i must admit. Ok, the 1.022 level was declared on Sep1. It went down roughly 170 pips before rising 330ish and almost hitting 1.022. before falling circa 200 again. I know u don't want to talk about the trade management side of this and of course I accept your decision, but I'm trying to figure out in my own mind how the hell I would trade that ? Anybody care to discuss? EDIT..to get the volume of longs required then that dip around 6 Sep is a nice place as it will take out all the late August bulls with their 100...
I was able to anticipate today's down move by looking at what happened on the 10 & 11 Aug as well as 5 to 8 Sep. I applied what I learned from Bilal's thread and George's Targets. Try to identify the Intent. Have a closer look on those dates while waiting for an answer from BW.
  • #3,333
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:23am Sep 13, 2022 10:23am
Quoting spzd
{quote} My personal way of trading is short term. Take what is given in my trade window and not even be concerned with all the other moves.
Same here..but I've been trying like mad to adjust to longer term trades for past few years (various reasons...getting older so don't want so much screen time, more remote location now..been quite a few powercuts in last year and that includes mobile phone masts knocked out... stressful for a scalper LOL). I mean I can work out some grid and throw trades on during the dip, but that kind of drawdown would be very hard to adjust to now.
  • #3,334
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:37am Sep 13, 2022 10:37am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Same here..but I've been trying like mad to adjust to longer term trades for past few years (various reasons...getting older so don't want so much screen time, more remote location now..been quite a few powercuts in last year and that includes mobile phone masts knocked out... stressful for a scalper LOL). I mean I can work out some grid and throw trades on during the dip, but that kind of drawdown would be very hard to adjust to now.
I know what you are saying.

Have come to the conclusion that longer term trading is a hell of a lot harder (psychologically).
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,335
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:50am Sep 13, 2022 10:50am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} I was able to anticipate today's down move by looking at what happened on the 10 & 11 Aug as well as 5 to 8 Sep. I applied what I learned from Bilal's thread and George's Targets. Try to identify the Intent. Have a closer look on those dates while waiting for an answer from BW.
Moving price up, likely collecting shorts on the way, before the data release is an indication this was going to go down.

Just another way the algo forms patterns in price.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,336
  • Sep 13, 2022 11:06am Sep 13, 2022 11:06am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} I was able to anticipate today's down move by looking at what happened on the 10 & 11 Aug as well as 5 to 8 Sep. I applied what I learned from Bilal's thread and George's Targets. Try to identify the Intent. Have a closer look on those dates while waiting for an answer from BW.
I think I got that on my chart above?
Lines and levels rule ok :-)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,337
  • Edited 8:16pm Sep 13, 2022 11:16am | Edited 8:16pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I'm confused here i must admit. Ok, the 1.022 level was declared on Sep1. It went down roughly 170 pips before rising 330ish and almost hitting 1.022. before falling circa 200 again. I know u don't want to talk about the trade management side of this and of course I accept your decision, but I'm trying to figure out in my own mind how the hell I would trade that ? Anybody care to discuss? EDIT..to get the volume of longs required then that dip around 6 Sep is a nice place as it will take out all the late August bulls with their 100...
Danger-Mouse, I have declared I don't talk about trades.
I make this one exception. Just for you. Yes just you, not anyone else.

When I made the post on Sep1(Thursday), I was hinting the selling of E$ is over. Market will find a bottom, then shoot up at 1.022 target.

The problem with most traders is they don't realise this is going to happen soon and its seen on the h4 chart. Due to blindness.

Serious point to consider, if you didn't know that's going to happen there's no possibility to ride that move up.

As to Sep6, that's a question about the actual trade entry.

What's the use about trade entry if you don't know market will value upward towards 1.022?

"Trade entry methods don't make the value intent move."

"Why does price move upward or downward?"

"At what point in real time do you know what you know?"
------------------------------------------------------
Do you notice I used the word "try"?

What does "try" suggest to you?

Look at the history h4/h1 chart to see this "try" to trade above 1.022.
How does this "try" appear to you?
Successful or failed "try"?

At the minimum, you must know market is in the process of "trying". Try what??? See the problem.
----------------------------------------------------
In summary,
1. You have to know the price level of interest,
2. You have to know value intent,
3. Was the "try" intent successful or fail?
(It look so clear after the fact, history chart.)

If you don't know any of these in real time market, you're suffering blindness.

If you are serious about trading, spend time figure out how to see all the above in real time market. Real time means everything, history chart means nothing.
-----------------------------------------------------

This happen on all Timeframes.

That's how the big boys move market value.
----------------------------------------------------
I post mostly longer timeframe major levels, so that people have time to follow as the market unfold.
----------------------------------------------------
Last point, after today's sell-off, do you notice market hesitate at parity?

Keep watching real time is all I will say. It's not over. Market don't finish with 2 h4 candles.
-------------------------------------------------
Danger-Mouse, I face all sort of personal attacks. That's why I don't want to talk about trading. I try to help as much where possible. I have given plenty of examples. But this shall be my last post about Forex trading. Don't want to expose myself to personal attacks.

This is how a value trader see real time market on the right side of the chart that has no candles yet.

Read my posts on this thread. It's all there.

"The real enemy in all aspects of forex trading is your mind and attitude."..... BWilliam 14sep 2022.

Happy Trading everyone. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,338
  • Sep 13, 2022 12:15pm Sep 13, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} E$ will continue to try to get to 1.022 and try trade above the target registered on 11 Aug. The professionals are watching and waiting like vultures.
It is interesting how you got to 1.022. I have used the data that was available to you on that day, with the 2 hemispheres in mind, and I managed to get to roughly the same level. Now I am testing if it holds true on more sample. Thanks for the knowledge.
  • #3,339
  • Sep 13, 2022 6:08pm Sep 13, 2022 6:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Danger-Mouse, I have declared I don't talk about trades. I make this one exception. Just for you. Yes just you, not anyone else. When I made the post on Sep1(Thursday), I was hinting the selling of E$ is over. Market will find a bottom, then shoot up at 1.022 target. The problem with most traders is they don't realise this is going to happen soon and its seen on the h4 chart. Due to blindness. Serious point to consider, if you didn't know that's going to happen there's no possibility to ride that move up. As to Sep6, that's a question about...
Did you trade this or just an analysis?
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,340
  • Sep 13, 2022 6:11pm Sep 13, 2022 6:11pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} PFH ? On your first chart is that the peak immediately to the left of your entry arrow ? The second chart - was entry below high of neighbouring pink rectangle/session?
Yes the PFH was to the left. The entry was on the right as there was rejection.
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