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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,281
  • Sep 12, 2022 7:29am Sep 12, 2022 7:29am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
Looks like counter-intuitive to buy, but we are above the two opens. Will close manually since the range is almost maximized.{image}
Looks like the dol hit was expensive, a deciding point at NYO, manual TP then reverse with minimum risk. Risk reduction focused trades. TP at dol.

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,282
  • Sep 12, 2022 7:59am Sep 12, 2022 7:59am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} I believe I remember this pattern somewhere that makes the M and W, the reason was this. Just reverse for buy. {image}
That pattern looks like a Quasimodo at the high. Similar to the head and shoulders. Could be considered a "warped" M. Or an inverse W.

Most of these patterns are "deformed" in some way. When looking for patterns such as these (and they can be hard to spot real time) is to try and ID 2/3 to 3/4 of the pattern which will set you up for the finish. Also, these patterns are usually trading in a breakout style.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,283
  • Sep 12, 2022 8:04am Sep 12, 2022 8:04am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} Good analysis, facilitators just collect the right amount of volume by triggering orders, then act accordingly to their best interests.
Hey Ho....................
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,284
  • Sep 12, 2022 8:21am Sep 12, 2022 8:21am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} Looks like the dol hit was expensive, a deciding point at NYO, manual TP then reverse with minimum risk. Risk reduction focused trades. TP at dol. {image}
Look like TP is in order.lol
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,285
  • Edited 9:07am Sep 12, 2022 8:33am | Edited 9:07am
There seems to be an M. Done for today, the range doesn't look "healthy".lol

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,286
  • Sep 12, 2022 10:56am Sep 12, 2022 10:56am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} And when you ZOOM out on the one minute - what an interesting view of levels confront you. ( I put in 1.17000 only) Draw the rest of Stacey's levels yourself - interesting viewing: Ignoring the possible "W" and its' break, within the first two vertical blue lines, price does break a level 1.1625(2) for a signal long. {image}
Finished for the day

Cable NY session. Nothing for me that I could find
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,287
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:08am Sep 12, 2022 11:08am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Finished for the day Cable NY session. Nothing for me that I could find {image}
Zooming out on 5 minute. Broke high of last week aka Stacey Burke ?

If I am correct and weekly high is broken then what is the next stage of analysis along Stacey thinking?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,288
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:16am Sep 12, 2022 11:16am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi HTG, I have to come back to this question, Is the market random to you? I wrote earlier, I spend a considerable amount of time researching the roulette game. And roulette spins are random, or it should be. If Forex traders trade the market as random, then they are akin to betting a roulette game. If anyone has access to high roller rooms, they see bets of $100k on a single spin all done in say 3minutes to know the outcome on to the next spin. That's a random game. And this is strong mindset on display. I've seen a baccarat game that went...
BWilliam - I answered this already, To me, the market is not random.

I dont think I could compare the market to Roulette, even if I thought that the market was Random.

You see with Roulette, you bet that $100,000 and have that wheel spin, you are done, no other options. You either win or you loose all within the time it takes for that ball to land.

With trading, you place your trade and once that order is accepted, you still have options. End result is still a W or an L (perhaps BE). With those options though you have the ability to minimize your L among other things.

I might not be tracking with you on the Roulette to Trading comparison when it comes to "Random".
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #3,289
  • Edited 12:15pm Sep 12, 2022 11:36am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting HTG
BWilliam - I answered this already, To me, the market is not random.
Hi HTG, Tbh I was not persisting with this random subject that's directed at you. I apologise if it appear to you this way.

I agree 100% with your not random stance.

To me, as traders we trade a predictable market. We can't say we trade a random market, that don't make sense.

I'm not referring to you when I wrote a large number of members will declare market is not random, yet say no one can predict this market. That's a contradiction.

The difference between me and you is our stance about strong mindset. Which we both agree is a requirement for the money.

However, I complete my mindset stance by saying a weak mindset is due to real time blindness. Less real time blindness means less uncertainty, hence stronger mindset. That's what I meant to say.

About my reference to roulette, I was drawing a reference to a random game. The high stakes, shorter cycles in a true random game. We can see Forex market is not a random roulette game. It's impossible to predict roulette spins, but yes we can predict this Forex market.

To me, Forex trading is a prediction business. And we get good at prediction when we reduce real time blindness.

I can accept if members think this Forex market is random, and therefore no one can predict this market. No surprise, really. Just the contradiction that make no sense.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,290
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:50am Sep 12, 2022 11:50am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi HTG, Tbh I was not persisting with this random subject that's directed at you. I apologise if it appear to you this way. I agree 100% with your not random stance. To me, as traders we trade a predictable market. We can't say we trade a random market, that don't make sense. I'm not referring to you when I wrote a large number of members will declare market is random, yet say no one can predict this market. That's a contradiction. The difference between me and you is our stance about strong mindset. Which we both agree is a requirement...
Hey BW...
Just for reference Tom thinks at any give moment the market is random. But patterns do emerge from a larger outlook to exploit... (These are his words) And that the market overall is 50/50 at best.

Makes me think of the Dow for example... 35-45 yrs I can't recall but it's basically 50/50 distribution of + days and - days... But look at the growth .

Anyhooo
Back to the screen..

Cheers !

Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,291
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:54am Sep 12, 2022 11:54am
Quoting bluesteele
Hey BW... Just for reference Tom thinks at any give moment the market is random. But patterns do emerge from a larger outlook to exploit... (These are his words) And that the market overall is 50/50 at best. Makes me think of the Dow for example... 35-45 yrs I can't recall but it's basically 50/50 distribution of + days and - days... But look at the growth . Anyhooo Back to the screen.. Cheers ! Blue
Hi Kev, I thought so too. Based on what I cited in my earlier post from his video, it clearly showed that Tom referred to randomness. I was pointing out the facts.

We all have different perception of this Forex market. So when someone declare this market is random or not random, it means nothing unless we check the details what they actually mean. I've made clear what I meant. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,292
  • Sep 12, 2022 12:08pm Sep 12, 2022 12:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi HTG, Tbh I was not persisting with this random subject that's directed at you. I apologise if it appear to you this way. I agree 100% with your not random stance. To me, as traders we trade a predictable market. We can't say we trade a random market, that don't make sense. I'm not referring to you when I wrote a large number of members will declare market is random, yet say no one can predict this market. That's a contradiction. The difference between me and you is our stance about strong mindset. Which we both agree is a requirement...

I hear you on all this and no need to apologize. Based on what I read, I dont think there is a big difference. I think we both understand the importance of the MINDSET. The blindness you speak of is very real.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #3,293
  • Sep 12, 2022 12:50pm Sep 12, 2022 12:50pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
There seems to be an M. Done for today, the range doesn't look "healthy".lol {image}
NYO traders wanted to Buy this strong market, so what do they need to do, as price at the open is too high ?
Where do you think the breakeven traders from a losing position are sitting ?
How do you get more traders to sell ?
Classic Bull & Bear Trap.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,294
  • Sep 12, 2022 12:55pm Sep 12, 2022 12:55pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hey BW... Just for reference Tom thinks at any give moment the market is random. But patterns do emerge from a larger outlook to exploit... (These are his words) And that the market overall is 50/50 at best. Makes me think of the Dow for example... 35-45 yrs I can't recall but it's basically 50/50 distribution of + days and - days... But look at the growth . Anyhooo Back to the screen.. Cheers ! Blue
Hey Bluesteele....a question if u don't mind ..and this relates mostly to Index trading..cash v futures pricing.

If I take the S&P500 as an example...it looks to me (from the charts u have posted) that you are trading a cash-priced derivative of the e-mini futures contract (and that would be the most common way to trade S&P500 in UK too..on an intraday basis).

You've mentioned Stacey Burke a lot and from what I've watched of him he talks a lot of sense. Part of his trading arsenal is watching price at 00,25,75 intervals. Now, at quarterly rollover times, the difference between the S&P cash and next futures contract can be quite large as u know. What has always kind of gone round in my mind is..when considering trades at quarters or BRNs... is it the Futures BRN or the cash BRN you refer to?

Interested to hear your views

Regards
DM
You've mentioned Stacey Burke a lot and from what I've watched of him he talks a lot of sense. Part of his trading arsenal is watching price at 00,25,75 intervals.
  • #3,295
  • Sep 12, 2022 2:07pm Sep 12, 2022 2:07pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Hey Bluesteele....a question if u don't mind ..and this relates mostly to Index trading..cash v futures pricing. If I take the S&P500 as an example...it looks to me (from the charts u have posted) that you are trading a cash-priced derivative of the e-mini futures contract (and that would be the most common way to trade S&P500 in UK too..on an intraday basis). You've mentioned Stacey Burke a lot and from what I've watched of him he talks a lot of sense. Part of his trading arsenal is watching price at 00,25,75 intervals. Now,...

Hey DM !

Excellent question.
Some basic info for those who don't know. One has to look at futures index pricing/quoting and how it is based on quarters... With one tick being $12.50 and 4 ticks equaling one point $50.00

So it is built around the quarters...

Now I haven't followed the ES for example for awhile... I have at times had both feeds open.. moreso looking for arbitrage or a divergence of sorts to try to get an confirmation of a trade...But now I try not too complicate things too much after years of complicating things

There is a fair value concept between cash and futures..but honestly I don't bother anymore with that.. again simplicity one price ..one chart...

As for looking at the futures pricing or trading off of their BRN etc..no I simply stick to the cash price.

But I do think quarterly levels are extremely important in the SPX/ES and should always be aware of.whatwver your trading.... I see alot of trapped volume in between the quarters and think it is a non coincidence...

This can be another whole deep dive into this... For those that are inclined I think is worthwhile

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,296
  • Sep 12, 2022 2:09pm Sep 12, 2022 2:09pm
That would be a CFD.

CFD 9.12.2022 @13:56

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Sep MESU22 (micro e-mini s&p 500 futures) 9.12.2022 @14:02

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Dec MESZ22 9.12.2022 @14:01

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,297
  • Sep 12, 2022 2:11pm Sep 12, 2022 2:11pm
MES futures micro e-mini are $1.25 a tick and $5 point
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,298
  • Sep 12, 2022 2:32pm Sep 12, 2022 2:32pm
[quote=BWilliam;14134063]{quote} I agree 100% with your not random stance. To me, as traders we trade a predictable market. We can't say we trade a random market, that don't make sense. I'm not referring to you when I wrote a large number of members will declare market is not random, yet say no one can predict this market./quote]

I view the forex as a chaotic system, not random. In a chaotic system, knowing how current PA orients around market barriers and extremes, does nothing to help you determine where the market will be in 3 or 4 months. But, the market is "run" under defined rules of conduct and behavior, as well as common business processes and procedures. So, short term patterns develop and open the opportunity to trade. The embedding space that all markets share, is regularly jolted by changing fundamentals, which can be random in nature. As FA changes and adjusts, the market narrative changes. But the rules that "run" the forex do not change. That's why we can trade the forex.
  • #3,299
  • Edited 7:12pm Sep 12, 2022 6:24pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
E$ will continue to try to get to 1.022 and try trade above the target registered on 11 Aug. The professionals are watching and waiting like vultures.
By predictable, I mean the value intent can be known before it happen. I made this post Sep1, check your h4 chart to see how E$ market play out.

I've done this type of "prediction" so many times. I make such live market calls to demonstrate how predictable this Forex market is, to give meaning to what I mean by predictable. Ofc if long term cycles are predictable, it's the same with shorter cycles. And I'm only interested to trade intraday 50pips cycles.

I don't subscribe to(I have no idea) candle patterns, price action, indicator ob/os and all other traditional technical analysis including volume data because none of them tell me the value intent. Such methods impose certain assumptions onto the market(do yourself a favour, study the underlying assumptions).

I won't know that E$ market since Sep1 has this intent to move value towards 1.022 in a bear market with these methods.

I don't impose a market bias(make no sense since as retail traders we're inconsequential), I just watch closely the big boys activity and follow. Follow is the only option for us retail traders.

So, was I predicting this Forex market?

No, I was telling about the big boys activity and translate it into value intent. No prediction made. No crystal ball needed.

In conclusion, I agree with GEfx Forex market is chaotic that confounds traders(blindness), and behave predictably at the same time. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #3,300
  • Edited 7:38pm Sep 12, 2022 6:56pm | Edited 7:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} By predictable, I mean the value intent can be known before it happen. I made this post Sep1, check your h4 chart to see how E$ market play out. I've done this type of "prediction" so many times. I make such live market calls to demonstrate how predictable this Forex market is, to give meaning to what I mean by predictable. Ofc if long term cycles are predictable, it's the same with shorter cycles. And I'm only interested to trade intraday 50pips cycles. I don't subscribe to(I have no idea) candle patterns, price action, indicator ob/os...

Hi BW...
It seems to me the more appropriate word would be forecasting versus predicting.. ?

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
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