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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,181
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:13am Sep 8, 2022 10:13am
Quoting spzd
{quote} If you really start to deep dive into just bars you start to see how every freakin' one has something to say. Price action is +++ for cognitive work outs.
Yes -chattering bars
But when they get together in little groups of four or so with tails hanging off their seats, it pays to assess the surroundings
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,182
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:24am Sep 8, 2022 10:24am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Here ya go ... G$ {image} edit: I forgot to say hindsight ....
Set your round numbers to 20 pips instaed of 25 pips.
Then see the difference it makes.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,183
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:32am Sep 8, 2022 10:32am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Set your round numbers to 20 pips instaed of 25 pips. Then see the difference it makes.
Have read that 20 pips was like the magic level number for currencies or something like that.

WIll put on the pairs I am watching and see if it helps or hinders.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,184
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:37am Sep 8, 2022 10:37am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Have read that 20 pips was like the magic level number for currencies or something like that. WIll put on the pairs I am watching and see if it helps or hinders.
Last question today SP - honest

The Nasdaq chart: have I put in the correct levels for Nasdaq (Stacey Burke) on the right hand side of the chart please ?
Thanks again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2022-09-08_16-33-30_085a7.png Size: 151 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,185
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:37am Sep 8, 2022 10:37am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Have read that 20 pips was like the magic level number for currencies or something like that. WIll put on the pairs I am watching and see if it helps or hinders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-09-08_16h36_51.png Size: 14 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,186
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:41am Sep 8, 2022 10:41am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} {image}
Puond likes those levels.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,187
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:42am Sep 8, 2022 10:42am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} {image}
I remember a character called "TRO" on a web forum which I have forgotten, and on Youtube, refer to trading horizontal lines ?
But your chart throws an interesting perspective on "trading lines" of 20 pip separation levels.
Interesting chart - thankyou.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,188
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:56am Sep 8, 2022 10:56am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Last question today SP - honest The Nasdaq chart: have I put in the correct levels for Nasdaq (Stacey Burke) on the right hand side of the chart please ? Thanks again. {image}
Just to finish off above chart. Chart shows end of Nasdaq trading session ( 1:30pm to 4:30pm - UK Time)
I was interested in price action around Stacey Burke levels -shown right hand side of chart.
I have finished for today. Good trading to you all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,189
  • Sep 8, 2022 11:30am Sep 8, 2022 11:30am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Puond likes those levels.
Most USD crosses have this phenomenon or maybe pro traders like to quote in 20 round numbers ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-09-08_17h31_21.png Size: 20 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,190
  • Sep 8, 2022 11:38am Sep 8, 2022 11:38am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Most USD crosses have this phenomenon or maybe pro traders like to quote in 20 round numbers ? {image}
The 20s look good on my watchlist. May need to slightly alter one of the tenants of the method, but it is minor and can be easily adjusted. Thanks.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,191
  • Sep 8, 2022 11:56am Sep 8, 2022 11:56am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Last question today SP - honest The Nasdaq chart: have I put in the correct levels for Nasdaq (Stacey Burke) on the right hand side of the chart please ? Thanks again. {image}
That looks about right. The main thing is to ID the 00.

You can skip the 25 if you can see it by eyeball. Save some work.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,192
  • Sep 8, 2022 1:30pm Sep 8, 2022 1:30pm
Quoting BWilliam
FWR, 17:48-59 "There is no global truth in trading. There is only intelligent, logical structures how you should trade." I try to talk about some of this intelligent logic here. Scalp or swing trade this G$ spike ? Cheers
After the event in hindsight it becomes obvious to swing trade this G$ spike. Again, the intelligent logical trading structure is this same knowledge that market will move value below dol later today. Every pip above dol means every pip less risky to trade. Simple, logical and unsophisticated strategy with built-in risk management. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,193
  • Edited 8:20pm Sep 8, 2022 7:37pm | Edited 8:20pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} You do bring forth a serious topic. One which I think to many overlook or abuse. Included in this is acceptable DD. Why? DD shows how loose or tight you are with stops. To me, the only acceptable DD is what I am willing to lose initially (for me it is usually no more than 10 or 12 pips roughly 1 ATR for that time frame -m15- or 1 bar h/l ). If you are willing to lose 10% or more of your account in one fell swoop is not trading. Then they whine about 0.6 pips slippage. So yeah I have a pet peeve over draw down.
Hi spzd, sitting on large drawdown is bad trading. This large drawdown is the result of tolerated risk, example 3% loss for one trade signal. Widening stops. Revenge trade after the initial stop hit. Cost averaging work wonderfully until a big hit. Same with basket trading. Trade without stop loss. Negative progression lot sizing. Nice strategies until.

All of these drawdown problems stem from one single source, taking risk trading dangerous market moves. Because market has produced a spike breaking high/low at overbought/oversold zone - this is the most common understanding that attract trades.

What's worse is when these dangerous trades hit profit target, instead of go into drawdown.

That's why I always ask this question in real time trading,

Why does market move upwards or downwards?

If we don't know the answer, we don't know why we win our trades, same as we don't know why we lose our trades - it means we don't know how this market work. The most common thing among traders is, we don't know why we lose our trades. What's worse is we don't even ask this question.

Give a thought about this. When we analyse the market up to the point we execute our trade, we "know" this market, it is clear to us. But when our stop get hit or go into drawdown we suddenly "don't know" this market. Ofc when market hit our profit target we "know" this market.

I wrote earlier, the main aim of my research work was not to design a trading strategy. It was aimed at understanding the market, and to answer this bolded question above.

Case in point, why did I scalp at that specific G$ candle? Why I call for a intraday swing trade for that G$ spike? From hindsight, does it look dangerous at that level and time, and is it in line with value intent for the rest of the day?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14129786


Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,194
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:39pm Sep 8, 2022 7:39pm
Again just one trade yesterday. An hour into London session. Managed to identify the Low of the day. Target was near DOL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,195
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:12pm Sep 8, 2022 10:12pm
Quoting whitesta
Again just one trade yesterday. An hour into London session. Managed to identify the Low of the day. Target was near DOL. {image}
Great trade Whitesta ! Thats how its done..

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,196
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:41pm Sep 8, 2022 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} After the event in hindsight it becomes obvious to swing trade this G$ spike. Again, the intelligent logical trading structure is this same knowledge that market will move value below dol later today. Every pip above dol means every pip less risky to trade. Simple, logical and unsophisticated strategy with built-in risk management. Cheers
Am I right master valuator?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,197
  • Edited Sep 9, 2022 1:17am Sep 8, 2022 11:21pm | Edited Sep 9, 2022 1:17am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
Am I right master valuator?{image}
Hi FMA, I'm not a master valuator.

Value intent is my trading priority. This is all I talk about and think about.
It's upon me to know why price move upward or downward.

The chart below has a bottom blue box, the significance is that is the armageddon price level that GEfx wrote about. Valuing G$ below this level has serious impact to the British economy.
The start of this month marked by the brown box market fell one way into this zone. Traders are full aware of the consequence that this might trigger BOE to act.

Market rose persistently, mostly with intermittent BOE intervention I guess.

The grey box is how market traded after what happened in the blue box.
Notice how price bounced off weekly open line NY session.
Followed by the continued rise in Tokyo market today - possible BOJ intervention on yen.
Heading towards mol, now at 85% adr.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/busi...ishida-2928886

Happy trading. Cheers

***global coordinated CB intervention may have started.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #3,198
  • Sep 8, 2022 11:27pm Sep 8, 2022 11:27pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I believe if we translate it to real use: Trade only a strategy with fixed SL and TP. With the SL that is unlikely to be hit. A "no option" trade. The most risk-less trade.
Yes, yes and yes. For tp it depends - a separate discussion.

The most important takeaway is to know why price move upward or downward at our trade executed price.

Quoting FulMargnAlch
I believe if we translate it to real use: Trade only a strategy with fixed SL and TP. With the SL that is unlikely to be hit. A "no option" trade. The most risk-less trade.
Although I wrote, I'm not a candle pattern nor PA trader.

Fact is I watch candle pattern closely for value intent. It's the main tool I use - I can't trade without it. However, it's not the candle pattern that we are told in books and videos. Since by candle it means time, clock is a very important variable. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,199
  • Sep 9, 2022 12:29am Sep 9, 2022 12:29am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Yes, yes and yes. For tp it depends - a separate discussion. The most important takeaway is to know why price move upward or downward at our trade executed price. {quote} Although I wrote, I'm not a candle pattern nor PA trader. Fact is I watch candle pattern closely for value intent. It's the main tool I use - I can't trade without it. However, it's not the candle pattern that we are told in books and videos. Since by candle it means time, clock is a very important variable. Cheers
The target seems to have already been reached and now a deciding point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,200
  • Sep 9, 2022 1:22am Sep 9, 2022 1:22am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Most USD crosses have this phenomenon or maybe pro traders like to quote in 20 round numbers ? {image}
Sooner or later, big interbank volume will move lots of currency around round numbers, also 25s and 50s, lol. Yes, the are like "targets", but having the correct timing at the right time, is "the secret". Anyway, sometimes they can be helpful for probabilities, confluences and gauging.

Also, remember all USD crosses (majors), well, are against the USD, so HAVE to be synched to values that often find confluence in-between. And then we have the minors, also derived from them, with synthetic triangulations.

You can place many lines at different places and price will eventually hit them, cross them or bounce; just like coin tosses! But a little more convenient, and maybe with profitable expectancy if risk management is adequate (preferably flexible/dynamic; depending on context).
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