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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,041
  • Sep 6, 2022 4:33pm Sep 6, 2022 4:33pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Everyone makes their their own illusion/simulation of physical "reality" (like a digital program [software], each mind/particular interpretation depends on hardware, from our brains to the external combinations of un-controlled variables); and the ones who better harmonize with the heaviest "consensus", win more often than not. If you can do it successfully enough to be a professional (making a living full-time only from electronic trading), well, kudos to you. Very few can consistently on the long-run...
So, what you are telling me is you have not figured out this game (yet).
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,042
  • Sep 6, 2022 4:33pm Sep 6, 2022 4:33pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Everyone makes their their own illusion/simulation of physical "reality" (like a digital program [software], every mind/particular interpretation depends on hardware, from our brains to the external combinations of un-controlled variables); and the ones who better harmonize with the heaviest "consensus", win more often than not. If you can do it successfully enough to be a professional (making a living full-time only from electronic trading), well, kudos to you. Very few can consistently on the long-run.
Never mind illusion. Just be practical and ensure your losses are smaller than your gains. The rest is "psychobabble."
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,043
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:18pm Sep 6, 2022 5:18pm
Quoting spzd
That brings forth the questions: whose illusion, whose consensus, and whose reality. When the fact is I mainly take reoccurring patterns for entries with a probability of success that outweighs failure.
Relax spzd, I'm sure you have real reasons why you trade recurring patterns. Learnt fom your hard work put into research work. You don't have to justify yourself to others - it's their problem not yours. I appreciate your sharing your work on here, thank you.
Know what you trade
  • #3,044
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:24pm Sep 6, 2022 5:24pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Relax spzd, I'm sure you have real reasons why you trade recurring patterns. Learnt fom your hard work put into research work. You don't have to justify yourself to others. I appreciate your sharing your work on here, thank you.
Was just using myself as the reference point.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,045
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:27pm Sep 6, 2022 5:27pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Relax spzd, I'm sure you have real reasons why you trade recurring patterns. Learnt fom your hard work put into research work. You don't have to justify yourself to others. I appreciate your sharing your work on here, thank you.
He's not "justifying", and why wouldn't he be relaxed. We're having a conversation. I question everything and tell what I think.
You don't have to tell others how to behave as if you were the father guru...
  • #3,046
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:34pm Sep 6, 2022 5:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Viktor, lol. Try draw one box for us pls.
Lel. Why would you like to see yet another hindsight box?

As well as you constantly write hundreds of post here (even many times being short replies split into different posts, instead of summarizing them in one... why? forum reputation?), I kindly ask if you could also answer the other direct message I wrote to you, just before leaving the forum that last time (as you often tend to do), instead of totally ignoring it:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14084062
  • #3,047
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:38pm Sep 6, 2022 5:38pm
Does it feels like sensible to you guys and reflection of the real market?

Edit: I looked into the 3 day range and it can still cover the lowest low for the week, so it can also be a part of the edge to trade with the lowest risk here.

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,048
  • Edited 6:27pm Sep 6, 2022 5:41pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting Viktor
Lel. Why would you like to see yet another hindsight box? As well as you constantly write hundreds of post here (even many times being short replies split into different posts, instead of summarizing them in one... why? forum reputation?), I kindly ask if you could also answer the other direct message I wrote to you, just before leaving the forum that last time (as you often tend to do), instead of totally ignoring it: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14084062
Viktor, I chose what to reply. I also chose with whom I interact. My right to chose. You have the right to do as you pls.

About my intention to leave forum, it's this small group of angry disgruntled members who are unhappy with me for the things I write. It rattled their chain so much. Ofc I know what I did. Lol. I don't wish to clutter this forum with trash because of my presence on here.

However I receive many requests for help. This outweighs the negatives, so I chose to put myself out here again. Ofc expecting the same attacks. And make more members unhappy with me at the same time, I'm aware of this.

Imagine the time and effort to write all these post, create charts and respond to members queries. First time I decided to try respond in real time or close to it, so that members may understand what I write about by experiencing it real time. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,049
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:46pm Sep 6, 2022 5:46pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} So, what you are telling me is you have not figured out this game (yet).
Figured it out? Of course not; I would be richer. And I wouldn't pretend so, as some people do...
No one completely "figures it out", but just parts, sometimes enough for specific market cycles, conditions or behaviors.

I may know many things from different perspectives, with good/realistic "theory", and about 10 years ago I successfully traded Futures, Options and CFDs for short periods of time (never more than 6 months, because I was always more invested in other activities). I frankly don't know if I could have done it year after year, though.

There's a huge difference between that and having a full ACTIONABLE & REPEATABLE understanding.

Quoting turnip15
{quote} Never mind illusion. Just be practical and ensure your losses are smaller than your gains. The rest is "psychobabble."
I agree, or "mumbo-jumbo" , as I've said other times. Smaller losses than gains is only one parameter of the puzzle, and can also be the other way around if the win-ratio justifies it and the max losses are well defined.

At least from my perspective, everything is dynamic, similar but different, so fixed ratios and "distances" are not the best idea...
  • #3,050
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:50pm Sep 6, 2022 5:50pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Viktor, I chose what to reply. I also chose with whom I interact. My right to chose. You have the right to do as you pls. Cheers
Of course you're free. But no, it's more than just that, and it's obvious to some. You clearly don't have an answer; just nicely sounding smoke & mirrors.

I thought you liked genuine debate and brainstorming, but at the end you show not different than the likes of George AUS or Peter Caleb ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • #3,051
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:56pm Sep 6, 2022 5:56pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Of course you're free. But no, it's more than just that, and it's obvious to some. You clearly don't have an answer; just nicely sounding smoke & mirrors. I thought you liked genuine debate and brainstorming, but at the end you show not different than the likes of George AUS or Peter Caleb ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Viktor, I never once have issue you(whoever) write whatever your(their) opinion.

But I have a request. Just write once, instead of cluttering this thread and others repeating yourself wherever I post. If you feel a strong need to write more, write to my pm pls. Thank you. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,052
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:57pm Sep 6, 2022 5:57pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Figured it out? Of course not; I would be richer. And I wouldn't pretend so, as some people do... No one completely "figures it out", but just parts, sometimes enough for specific market cycles, conditions or behaviors. I may know many things from different perspectives, with good/realistic "theory", and about 10 years ago I successfully traded Futures, Options and CFDs for short periods of time (never more than 6 months, because I was always more invested in other activities). I frankly don't know if I could have done it year after year,...
Truth is I still have learning to accomplish. I have, however, found my niche and I think that is more important than any theoreticals that are spewed here and elsewhere.

Just saying
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,053
  • Edited 7:21pm Sep 6, 2022 6:04pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Viktor, I never once have issue you write whatever your opinion. But I have a request. Just write once, instead of clustering this thread and others repeating yourself wherever I post. If you feel a strong need to write more, write to me pm. Thank you. Cheers
BWilliam. What's up with your "subtle" (cheap) contrarian ad-hominem rhetoric?

And yes, we could also chat by PM, but why there, if these things interest everyone?

EDIT: For example, Andy encourages the use of "public space" for open discussion
  • #3,054
  • Sep 6, 2022 6:10pm Sep 6, 2022 6:10pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Of course you're free. But no, it's more than just that, and it's obvious to some. You clearly don't have an answer; just nicely sounding smoke & mirrors. I thought you liked genuine debate and brainstorming, but at the end you show not different than the likes of George AUS or Peter Caleb ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
We have no choice brother. They say market is an algo but we must trade like the market is real and has a fair value. How can there be fair value when we are trading against an AI?

With targets, it looks sensible to me, the Algo has targets but they keep referring to George's targets while BW has different targets based on math.

We have only ourselves to blame for keeping on staying here and opening our mouths like fish for crumbs of bread. But we have no choice, if they are as ignorant as us, that we do not know.

There are only two things:

1. We keep on grinding here until the eureka moment; or

2. There is no eureka moment and well just get fed up and start all over again to another thing. Back to OS/OB I think.


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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,055
  • Sep 6, 2022 6:27pm Sep 6, 2022 6:27pm
BW, just a question.

If price moves 50 pips from opening but returns near to the opening at the end of the day:

1. did the market made a statement to go higher; or

2. it is as if there is no statement at all and price has the same value?
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,056
  • Sep 6, 2022 6:37pm Sep 6, 2022 6:37pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
BW, just a question. If price moves 50 pips from opening but returns near to the opening at the end of the day: 1. did the market made a statement to go higher; or 2. it is as if there is no statement at all and price has the same value?
Hi FMA, market make statements throughout the trading day, an ongoing process. This topic requires a seperate thread to discuss it, because it involve a lot more complexity than just close line(and I will not host such a thread). About the few market statements I pointed out on here, they're just examples and easy to see. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,057
  • Edited 7:24pm Sep 6, 2022 6:53pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} We have no choice brother. They say market is an algo but we must trade like the market is real and has a fair value. How can there be fair value when we are trading against an AI? With targets, it looks sensible to me, the Algo has targets but they keep referring to George's targets while BW has different targets based on math. We have only ourselves to blame for keeping on staying here and opening our mouths like fish for crumbs of bread. But we have no choice, if they are as ignorant as us, that we do not know. There are only two things:...
Yes, modern Big Boys use AI/machine learning to exploit small and short lived market inefficiencies, but they are just other participants, often taking both sides of the trades around the spread.

---

George is/was not a real trader, but somehow became a legend after his unique philosophical way of writing about trading, with some good metaphorical truths here and there. About BW I don't know, and while we can say that EVERYTHING can be simulated/calculated/measured with mathematics, what he does on charts doesn't actually involve using them in any sophisticated way beyond the same basic arithmetic that all traders should be able to understand.

So what kind "quants math" is he talking about, in order to do that, is a mystery to me...
Things like fixed "50" pips are absurd. It can be around that, less or more, also depending on pairs ADR/volatility.

Regarding his "live calls", sorry, but I haven't seen any actionable one with clear pre-set timings and levels (timing/direction order). For example, someone who actually does (beforehand and not after the fact) and without such ambiguity, is the member "senjamerah", illustrating that just by trading "price structure" (levels/lines/"targets") with "price action" (nothing else than price movement-development around those areas). Therefore, yes, I agree that lines/levels in a "naked chart", without volume, can be enough to trade profitable; at the expense of being less "mechanical" (hence not prone to proper automation), less consistent, more ambiguous and subjective/discretionary. Everything's relative, though.

---

Interbank FX market is "real", but OTC (no centralized exchange); and yes, there's a "fair value" and "intent" for each major currency (related to different macro geopolitical and economical fundamental policies and factors combined), subsequently influencing private "targets" and orderbooks among banks... but being really "predictable" to us, small and not so well-informed retail discretionary traders, only sometimes (as with all "patterns), and there's also proper money/risk management requiring exits as good if not better than entries.

There's no such thing as a "one single algo to rule them all".

Bank for International Settlements > Major Central Banks > Commercial Banks > Futures > CFDs (retail Forex)

Futures volume & liquidity flow (limit & market orders/time & sales) come from institutional (liquidity providers) algorithmic market-making around interbank exchange rates; that's why they work as good proxies for quick scalping. Aggregated ticks for drawing price candles in FX CFDs (derivative synthetic contracts) come from their quotes.

We're talking about electronic/digital trading, between different but interlinked markets; thus of course there's automated software (may programs) facilitating the transactions.

From this past post of mine:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13994529

The similar behavior of different currency pairs happens (it has to), simply because of how cross currency pairs are calculated/triangulated directly from majors; so all of their movements, rates and "proportional distances", are perfectly correlated and synchronized...

GEfx could explain bank/fx mechanics much better than me
  • #3,058
  • Edited 7:23pm Sep 6, 2022 7:12pm | Edited 7:23pm
Just followed Bluesteele's style. Sell and Buy during London session. First 3 hours. I have no clue about Intent to be honest but i always read and try and absorb info from experienced traders here. For me so far the most important factor which is set in stone and will always be there is TIME & NUMBERS (RNs). I have spent hours and hours watching screen and still couldn't see a trade..lol. So just decided to limit screen time and just wait for the best time to trade and as suggested by Bluesteele. The best time is London & US Equity opens. Come to screen 15mins before London open to maybe see what has happened in Asia session to mark ur Hs, Ls, etc. When London market opens check for some action around RNs first and other confluences like WOL, DOL, Session Hs, LS, Ws, Ms, Vs, Pin Bars, Engulers, etc. If u see those just pull the trigger. Offcourse u have ur stop loss set. It happens everyday, every pair. Don't be trigger happy though. Only trade if ur fully satisfied with ur analysis. If ur not sure don't force it. Wait for next session or another pair. Try to just focus on 2 to 4 pairs. Live & Breathe those pairs and see how they work. Not many will agree but patterns repeat themselves day in day out. For me i have at times spent 15 odd hours a day watching charts, back tests, etc and all blank when its live trading time. If u see it, trade it. Just make sure to set ur stop loss and no matter what there will be losses. On to next. What Algo does, why it does that, where will price go, when will it go is of no use. Trade to win and move on. There are lots of good traders here so take their advice and build ur own style. If u miss a trade don't dwell on. Market will be there for next setups. The other thing is after ur trading day check if a certain trade didn't work and put notes. Thats it.
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  • #3,059
  • Sep 6, 2022 7:22pm Sep 6, 2022 7:22pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,060
  • Sep 6, 2022 7:23pm Sep 6, 2022 7:23pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{image}
Wow. TP hit immediately. 1st trade of the day, 1st win of the day. Hope it continues.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
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