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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,961
  • Sep 4, 2022 10:06am Sep 4, 2022 10:06am
I'll just post my notes here and refer to it someday.
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,962
  • Sep 4, 2022 10:10am Sep 4, 2022 10:10am
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,963
  • Sep 4, 2022 10:20am Sep 4, 2022 10:20am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I'll just post my notes here and refer to it someday.{image}
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,964
  • Sep 4, 2022 10:26am Sep 4, 2022 10:26am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{image}
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,965
  • Sep 4, 2022 10:45am Sep 4, 2022 10:45am
Perhaps I needed to sleep now, wake up tomorrow, break out of bed, eat break fast, to gain energy when low, and when in high noon maybe expend all those energy for the day until sunset then rest and repeat another day. As long as I intended it, I can go anywhere. This is life. Good day everyone.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,966
  • Edited 2:59pm Sep 4, 2022 2:42pm | Edited 2:59pm
Excellent post by BW on “Blindness” for the reason why most traders fail....
I would like to call it “normal behaviour” or “normal thinking”....As Normal thinking equates itself to losing trades in trading.

I have referenced this in the past but David Rodriguez a quantitative analyst whilst at FXCM analyzed ,over several studies, 75+ million retail trades.. That's a large sample size and enough DATA I would assume to draw some fairly concrete conclusions.

Average win rate on the GJ was 62% and overall of 15 currency pairs analyzed I believe the overall win-rate of traders was approx 60%... Not too bad ! The problem lies in the poor R:R...
ex. GJ average win 52 pips average loss 122 pips.

More examples over 75 million trades:
US/CAD average win rate 61% average win 60 pips loss 78
EUR/USD average win rate 59% average win 65 pips loss 127
AUD/NZD average win rate 71% average win 61 pips loss 90
AUD/JPY average win rate 49% average win 60 pips loss 63 ***

You get the idea.
Most traders trade with an inverse R:R ratio vs using an Asymmetrical R:R ratio or simply they hold on to losing trades. Hoping and praying it comes back and then finally take the big hit.

This is “normal behaviour” “normal thinking”....it is how I interpret Blindness. And the truth of the matter it boils down to human psychology.. We as humans avoid pain and try to control outcomes.
IT DOES NOT WORK !

So how do you fix this problem ? Well a very key part of this is what BW is doing.... Have you noticed in several of his posts he points to the number of lines he is using.. In other-words his methodology, HIS SETUP... Its got nothing to do with lines, indicators , volume etc... Its simply using a duplicatable repeatable setup with an edge.

Go ahead and google and find all the different studies done by Rodriguez...

But better yet I would set aside some time and watch a video series by Tom Hougaard on why Thinking Normal in trading is a recipe for failure. (OPTO CMC series) Tom spent 10 years as a broker behind the desk dealing with Retail Traders... Hes seen what WE DO... It is absolutely invaluable information.

***AUD/JPY NOTE: I used to trade with FXCM many many years ago... lousy spreads...thus the note. Trading expenses are a big deal. I would surmise that in the AUDJPY example horrible spreads were a big factor in the results...and with a few other pairs. Especially when you are scalping with an inverse RR.. a broker with tight spreads is imperative otherwise your leaving alot of money on the table..

Anyways just some Sunday thoughts for the thread.. Hope everyone has a great trading week.

Cheers
Blue

Edit: A new podcast out with Tom... First 5 mins or so he touches on exactly what im talking about.

Inserted Video
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,967
  • Sep 5, 2022 3:46am Sep 5, 2022 3:46am
This is how I understand Market Blindness :

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,968
  • Sep 5, 2022 4:19am Sep 5, 2022 4:19am
Quoting Shabs19
This is how I understand Market Blindness : {image}
I must have been indoctrinated since child that I cannot see the simple bottom there. Really obvious, said the old guru.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,969
  • Sep 5, 2022 5:35am Sep 5, 2022 5:35am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} I must have been indoctrinated since child that I cannot see the simple bottom there. Really obvious, said the old guru.
This chart is what happens when you trade too many strategies at the same time.

Throwing all the indicators you can find onto your charts, without knowing what any information you get from them means.

Then looking at too many markets at the same time, so that chart is now multiplied by 4x, 5x, 6x, 10x ( Let's buy some more screens.)

Then looking at the same info on as many timeframes that you can find, even creating new ones, like 2min, 3 min, 2 hr etc. (Hopping from one TF to another).

Trading out of Boredom, Confusion, News story, Fear of missing out as you were late and market has moved off without you.

Trading without any plan in place, before clicking Buy/Sell. (Hope & Pray).

Look for trading Gurus to give you the secret sauce, secret indicators, magic skills.

Procrastinate.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,970
  • Sep 5, 2022 5:43am Sep 5, 2022 5:43am
So guys indeed the problem is to be able to control yourself when you have losses or do not rush into trades.

So guys can you help and advice into how to solve those problems. I mean actual tactics like for example do only one trade a day or put a clock that the alarm goes off every 10 minutes. I dont know actual tactics to improve

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #2,971
  • Sep 5, 2022 6:04am Sep 5, 2022 6:04am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} This chart is what happens when you trade too many strategies at the same time. Throwing all the indicators you can find onto your charts, without knowing what any information you get from them means. Then looking at too many markets at the same time, so that chart is now multiplied by 4x, 5x, 6x, 10x ( Let's buy some more screens.) Then looking at the same info on as many timeframes that you can find, even creating new ones, like 2min, 3 min, 2 hr etc. (Hopping from one TF to another). Trading out of Boredom, Confusion, News story, Fear...
A lot of things have been said, a lot of names have been coined. If we have a friend or family who knows trading, there is no need to discuss anything.

So here we are, forum breadcrumbs are all we got, but we have chosen this and we will prevail. It's a make or break towards financial freedom.

Late entry using Merlin's low.

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,972
  • Sep 5, 2022 6:29am Sep 5, 2022 6:29am
My Dax charts this UK morning:
Apart from my normal approach I continue to try to use ideas on this thread to filter trades.
What struck me were levels converging such as the 5 plus 15 and hourly highs and lows.
I execute off the one minute chart normally, on the Dax - between 7am and 10am UK time.
What puzzles me still, such that I cannot execute on them alone, are Fair Value gaps - Where are they critical and where are they continuation or low value?
( I have noticed that price can rise from them and circle back down to the same FVGap in time - and 'M" and 'W" and small consolidations or levels feature in the action of price.

AND -should I bother with FVGaps?

Levels and Time of Day I readily appreciate and now use.

If I am straying from the majority of posts here then say so, and I will get me coat.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,973
  • Sep 5, 2022 6:43am Sep 5, 2022 6:43am
Quoting turnip15
My Dax charts this UK morning: Apart from my normal approach I continue to try to use ideas on this thread to filter trades. What struck me were levels converging such as the 5 plus 15 and hourly highs and lows. I execute off the one minute chart normally, on the Dax - between 7am and 10am UK time. What puzzles me still, such that I cannot execute on them alone, are Fair Value gaps - Where are they critical and where are they continuation or low value? ( I have noticed that price can rise from them and circle back down to the same FVGap in time...
Story so far.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,974
  • Edited 7:18am Sep 5, 2022 6:55am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting turnip15
AND -should I bother with FVGaps? Levels and Time of Day I readily appreciate and now use. If I am straying from the majority of posts here then say so, and I will get me coat. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Fair Value Gaps, my undertanding of them is very similar to Supply & Demand Strategy Theory.

Best way to trade them would be to wait for retrace back into the gap and then trade direction in the same direction as the large candle that caused the gap.

You have to know what is your trading time frame for this market, based on your research. Are you a 5m , 15m or hourly trader. This is a case of over-analysis
or Paralysis Analysis.

Example. I trade off the 15m chart, my set-ups might be on higher TF's but where I execute the trade is set.

Your entry is the 15m on the Pullback into FVG. End of. Target the previous High, Stoploss below the FVG.

Edit: I would draw FVG from closed bodies.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,975
  • Sep 5, 2022 7:37am Sep 5, 2022 7:37am
Quoting Frag8383
So guys indeed the problem is to be able to control yourself when you have losses or do not rush into trades. So guys can you help and advice into how to solve those problems. I mean actual tactics like for example do only one trade a day or put a clock that the alarm goes off every 10 minutes. I dont know actual tactics to improve Thanks Kind regards
I solved a lot of that through the method I use. It sets up timed windows to trade in. One could easily do that trading any method/system.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,976
  • Edited 9:10am Sep 5, 2022 9:00am | Edited 9:10am
Hello chaps. UK afternoon Nasdaq question.
Re- part of the method used by Stacey Burke - references to the US equity open refers to 2:30pm UK time ?
And he advocates opening a window ONE hour before this - Is this correct?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,977
  • Sep 5, 2022 9:08am Sep 5, 2022 9:08am
Quoting turnip15
Hello chaps. UK afternoon Nasdaq question. Re- part of the method used by Stacey Burke - references to the US equity open refers to 2:20pm UK time ? And he advocates opening a window ONE hour before this - Is this correct? {image}
The window times are:

Asia 2000 - 2300

London 0200 - 0500

New York 0800 - 1100

All are New York time.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,978
  • Sep 5, 2022 9:12am Sep 5, 2022 9:12am
Quoting spzd
{quote} The window times are: Asia 2000 - 2300 London 0200 - 0500 New York 0800 - 1100 All are New York time.
These time periods create a trading window. When trading currencies you will find that each pair is unique, all very similar. Some of the best trades may come outside or at the edge of these time windows.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,979
  • Sep 5, 2022 9:13am Sep 5, 2022 9:13am
Quoting spzd
{quote} The window times are: Asia 2000 - 2300 London 0200 - 0500 New York 0800 - 1100 All are New York time.
Thanks sp
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,980
  • Sep 5, 2022 9:27am Sep 5, 2022 9:27am
The basic of Burke's method, and this could be applied to many various methods, is to take advantage of certain repeatable patterns at specific times of the day. These times are in conjunction with the major equities markets opening time periods. With the reality that these patterns repeat on a consistent basis allow for them to be exploited in our advantage. Trade size can then be scaled up to maximize the return. By keeping his targets modest he is in and out of the market fairly quickly and has his screen time limited.

This is the method I have decided to make my own. So far the results are very good. I still have a long way to go in my price action journey.

edit: Also studying Bob Volman's method to the 5 minute chart. Will morph these two PA methods into my own.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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