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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,741
  • Edited 2:32pm Aug 29, 2022 2:12pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Danger-Mouse, I appreciate much you take the trouble to write your thoughts. Thank you. If experienced traders can contribute to share their thoughts about the question. It'll benefit many. About what you listed, the fairy tale gets more and more fancy over the years. Shall I say, they're all junk. To trade with an edge, we must know how market will value the asset in the FUTURE, aka value intent. That's why volume data at market is useless variable to determine future value - we're talking 50pips minimum. I wrote, traditional technical...
Yes, I agree volume data is useless if we are shooting for 50 pips...only for scalping.
But this brings us back to the "50 pips minimum" question. I still haven't worked out why you say that is so. Is it because you've calculated that is the minimum safe distance to aim for? Maybe that is the minimum "scalp" the big boys would be interested in? But 50 pips on GJ is a much more achievable goal than 50 pips on EU (based on the percentage of move that 50 pips represents on either pair and of course their ADRs). EDIT - Don't you have to adjust this 50 figure depending on the instrument traded? 50 pips on Dow or Dax is pretty rapid

"Chat with a RICS, find out how the professionals do it in the property sector."

Well I guess that's down to location, size, quality of build, condition, current housing market etc (not that I've always agreed with surveyors lol..and have found "their" fair value efforts way off target in the past ). But I think you are making the point that to value an asset, you have to take into consideration external factors (i.e. housing market, comparative values of other houses on same street)? Does that mean before you think about taking a trade on GU, you would have to consult the dollar index...or maybe other G or U pairs? Hmm.. I got the impression from your trades lately that they were just calculated only from the past data of the instrument itself?

"The key question is how to determine if the asset will sustain current value, and whether there's upside or downside potential"

Future value..aka value intent... I have to say I'm still lost. MOL, WOL, DOL, ADR..I just can't seem to link it altogether in a consistent way
  • #2,742
  • Aug 29, 2022 5:04pm Aug 29, 2022 5:04pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nice. The short trade at dol is so obvious. It's going up to dol again, this time don't sell. Look at nasdaq, how many nasdaq traders knew there's no option except to fly?
What i meant was you know it was going to dol i didn't know it was going to dol, you made similar call on the 24th. What is RICS, please?
  • #2,743
  • Aug 29, 2022 5:11pm Aug 29, 2022 5:11pm
Quoting angelofx
{quote} What i meant was you know it was going to dol i didn't know it was going to dol, you made similar call on the 24th. What is RICS, please?
RICS: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
  • #2,744
  • Aug 29, 2022 5:27pm Aug 29, 2022 5:27pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} RICS: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
Thank you sir
  • #2,745
  • Aug 29, 2022 7:19pm Aug 29, 2022 7:19pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nice monalisa piccy. Did anyone know have to close long trades and go short ? {image}
Hi BWilliam，
Can you tell the reason for taking the short trade?
  • #2,746
  • Aug 29, 2022 7:34pm Aug 29, 2022 7:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
How to trade for 50pips value change with all the selling already done in Tokyo session below dol on Monday, adr 68% ? {image}
Super Trade BWilliam, I didn't see that coming as i could not find confluences. Ur timing was superb as you had analysed that it would be coming down even before it began dropping. I only got confirmation when i saw the bearish candle slicing the DOL. A little late for 50pips. Again very well executed.

Happy Trading all.
  • #2,747
  • Edited 10:59pm Aug 29, 2022 7:44pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
But this brings us back to the "50 pips minimum" question. I still haven't worked out why you say that is so. Is it because you've calculated that is the minimum safe distance to aim for? Maybe that is the minimum "scalp" the big boys would be interested in? But 50 pips on GJ is a much more achievable goal than 50 pips on EU (based on the percentage of move that 50 pips represents on either pair and of course their ADRs). EDIT - Don't you have to adjust this 50 figure depending on the instrument traded? 50 pips on Dow or Dax is pretty rapid...
Why 50pips?

That's minimum "meaningful" change in value - we don't want to be tracking anything lesser "meaningless" change. If you trade on the real interbank FX market with say 100 million with no leverage, that's the minimum change that means anything to you. Leverage is the magic sauce that enable crypto volume scalpers to record overly impressive 17% gain on a dead Sunday.

That's why if you check I made a post that ask if you make money by pips or by leverage? Ofc, scalpers make money by leverage, we know that. I classify such high leveraged contrarian scalping as outright gambling exposed to risk of ruin. And multiply that 50times a day, you get the idea of the risk exposure. There's no genius in it, the qualification required is be dumb to the risk.

Yes, 50pips is a small percentage adr of some pairs. This is how I set and chose the pairs I trade. 50pips = 60% or less of ADR. Since cov19, the volatility is the best for recent years.

Larger ADRs doesn't mean better or less risky. It comes with wider spread, greater volatility and more slippage. They are all proportional. So we want to trade pairs with "just nice" adr, that give enough volatility but not too much. If too volatile like the cryptos, it's more difficult to read if the change in value is a pullback or not. And with higher volatility the turning point has a larger possible range that widens our stop correspondingly. So what's the gain with wider adr?
Know what you trade
  • #2,748
  • Edited 10:34pm Aug 29, 2022 8:06pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
But I think you are making the point that to value an asset, you have to take into consideration external factors (i.e. housing market, comparative values of other houses on same street)? Does that mean before you think about taking a trade on GU, you would have to consult the dollar index...or maybe other G or U pairs? Hmm.. I got the impression from your trades lately that they were just calculated only from the past data of the instrument itself?
Look at GY, and E$ for an idea what's happening.

GY traded well above dol from the opening bell. One side of dol all day long with no change in bias. It's simple(close eyes press the buy button and don't touch the sell button, howzat for trading?) that's why I did not refer to it and EY yesterday - no gain in education.
(Guys, I'm a time traveler from the future telling about Forex education on FF. )

E$ pulled back more than 50% of the Tokyo session drop. What does this tell you?

G$ broke last week low inside all time low registered during cov19 on low Asian session volume floating in no man's land 68% adr. What next for the rest of the day, still long to go? All ingredients point to a reversal on the card at the time I posted the h1 chart.

So why show G$?

Because I wanted to show how market magically stop at dol, refuse to take value higher. E$ took value higher, so pullback at dol later in the day is easy to read. Same with GY and EY. But little gain in education.

Yes I calculate based only on the past data of the instrument itself. And I made it clear many times I refer to it on my phone. What can this "sophisticated" calculation be?

Answer, time series forecasting that's anchored to dol, wol and mol. (don't take a genius to figure out what this means, and I don't want to talk about it, taboo subject that touch people's raw nerves)

***notice my analysis has ZERO sophisticated, fancy narrative, just simple layman logic and language.
Know what you trade
  • #2,749
  • Edited 10:40pm Aug 29, 2022 8:37pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
"The key question is how to determine if the asset will sustain current value, and whether there's upside or downside potential" Future value..aka value intent... I have to say I'm still lost. MOL, WOL, DOL, ADR..I just can't seem to link it altogether in a consistent way
Ofc, like real estate speculation, currency speculation is about the value of the currency pair which has the potential to gain or lose value.

Leveraged speculation means the property buyer paid the down-payment with 5 credit cards with another 5 to rotate while waiting to flip his purchase to someone else in a musical chair business.

Therefore, we speculate on properties with the highest flip potential starting with one and rise up to 10 in the next 5 years. The expertise is in the ability to read value.

This same value requirement for currency speculation as well. The difference is we can do both sides, long and short. The value cycles are shorter. Transaction execution instant instead of 3 months. And we have leverage for everyone in place of credit cards or personal loans dished out to mostly hods and professionals regarded as safe risk.

Danger-Mouse, you were previously completely lost.

Now, you're aware that the value is connected to dol, wol and mol. You've learnt price rise and fall based on perceived future value aka value intent. You realise none of the listed fancy narratives give proper reason why price rise or fall. You realise, like everyone else, WE are indoctrinated with ob/os spike centric propaganda, the clever work of marketers and broker reps.

That's not lost. That is the beginning of awakening, your eyes are now open.

Where do you want to go from here?
Your choice.
Know what you trade
  • #2,750
  • Edited 10:29pm Aug 29, 2022 9:21pm | Edited 10:29pm
Quoting KevinZeng
Hi BWilliam， Can you tell the reason for taking the short trade?
Hi KevinZeng, two reasons.

E$ which was leading the charge hit a major level at the top. What's the chance getting past this level at that time? Zero.

2nd reason, besides $CHF, G$ traded below dol. The major level is miles away.

What else can G$ do except to attract value sellers and fall? No option for a "trapped" currency pair.

First fall, fast and furious to make a value intent statement(that's why the short trade). 2nd fall long, protracted and frustratingly boring(time waster) as the market slowly realise what was happening.

If you're trading this morning, close both eyes and brain, wait for the spike hit the sell button whatever currency pair against dollar you wish. Ofc A$ is a priority choice in Tokyo market. No brainer. Don't you like no brain required trades?
Know what you trade
  • #2,751
  • Edited 11:25pm Aug 29, 2022 9:28pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting BWilliam
Does nasdaq have any options London close?
Talking about no option for G$ except to fall and oscillate meaninglessly with narrowing range the rest of NY session.

Nasdaq and US30 had no option except to do what it did going into London close. Oscillating meaninglessly with "no option" in NY session. Meaningless because the range widens and then narrows with no gain - no one will commit serious money in such a market. Those guys with money are not stupid. But take note that "reactionary" move is a market statement we're approaching major level at the bottom.

Btw, the G$ London session rise is also no option.

What does "no option" means to you?
(pretty sure, first time you read no option for the value intent as a technical analysis, that's derived from simple layman logic.)

Guys, my chart analysis is simple layman logic with no sophistication, no ridiculous assumptions, it's unattractive, easily forgettable. I wrote many times, don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. If you don't know the value intent which does happen(blindness), don't trade - simple logic. If you like out-of-the-box simple valuation logic, Forex trading is right up your alley.
Know what you trade
  • #2,752
  • Edited 11:50pm Aug 29, 2022 9:46pm | Edited 11:50pm
Which brings us to the question, which currency pair you prefer to trade?

Boring EY, GY one side stalemate expansion of dol, no brain required "press the button anytime you wish" type, or,

E$ strong reversal onto the opposite side of dol with gusto and commitment that drive up the adrenalin, or

G$ that oscillate on one side with dol and day low as delimiters.

What's your preference?

Different personality type have different preference. Find out about yourself.

***Andy, apologise for the spam again this morning. I have to take the opportunity to give more details to fill in the blanks.

***that's a lot of typing that George talked about. My fingers are tired!
Know what you trade
  • #2,753
  • Aug 30, 2022 12:09am Aug 30, 2022 12:09am
Quoting BWilliam
Which brings us to the question, which currency pair you prefer to trade? Boring EY, GY one side stalemate expansion of dol, no brain required "press the button anytime you wish" type, or, E$ strong reversal onto the opposite side of dol with gusto and commitment that drive up the adrenalin, or G$ that oscillate on one side with dol and day low as delimiters. What's your preference? Different personality type have different preference. Find out about yourself. ***Andy, apologise for the spam again this morning. I have to take the opportunity to...
Jason, I haven’t got the foggiest idea about what you’re writing about until someone makes a PDF but as long as Twee pays me $100 per post on this thread…., you’re more than welcome to continue.
  • #2,754
  • Aug 30, 2022 12:32am Aug 30, 2022 12:32am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Jason, I haven’t got the foggiest idea about what you’re writing about until someone makes a PDF but as long as Twee pays me $100 per post on this thread…., you’re more than welcome to continue.

Blue
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Moody
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,755
  • Aug 30, 2022 12:49am Aug 30, 2022 12:49am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Blue {image} Moody {image}
Yeah, that’s right Blue!
Sitting back of the class with me..
  • #2,756
  • Aug 30, 2022 1:47am Aug 30, 2022 1:47am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}Where do you want to go from here? Your choice.
Well, firstly down to the kitchen to make a strong coffee and try to re-wire my brain

I appreciate the time it's taking you to make all these long replies and show your view of the markets (as I'm sure everyone else does).

"Answer, time series forecasting that's anchored to dol, wol and mol"

Ok, that's not something I've looked into in any great detail before..I'll need to have a look.

Thanks
DM
  • #2,757
  • Aug 30, 2022 3:18am Aug 30, 2022 3:18am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Well, firstly down to the kitchen to make a strong coffee and try to re-wire my brain I appreciate the time it's taking you to make all these long replies and show your view of the markets (as I'm sure everyone else does). "Answer, time series forecasting that's anchored to dol, wol and mol" Ok, that's not something I've looked into in any great detail before..I'll need to have a look. Thanks DM
Yes, this is my view of the market together with the underlying assumptions. I will appreciate more if I get criticisms especially at the core about the assumptions. Such negative feedbacks will help to unveil the weaknesses of my assumptions.

The questions posed are good observations that allow me to clarify more into the details using the backdrop of the recent market. It makes my explanation real, connecting theory to reality.
Know what you trade
  • #2,758
  • Edited 4:30am Aug 30, 2022 3:29am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting BWilliam
Nasdaq and US30 had no option except to do what it did going into London close. Oscillating meaninglessly with "no option" in NY session. Meaningless because the range widens and then narrows with no gain - no one will commit serious money in such a market. Those guys with money are not stupid. But take note that "reactionary" move is a market statement we're approaching major level at the bottom.
I made sure I added and underlined this comment. I am certain you will see this play out today market. Take a look at nasdaq and US30.

There's none of the usual ob/os spike.

These markets had no option since yesterday. These markets rise cautiously towards the bearish value zone which market fell through like a rock on Friday after Powell's speech. Expect oscillation between these 2 levels until a breakout happens, 12750 and 32500. Watch closely today.

E$ has to contend with pwol. G$ has more room upwards taking cue from E$. 1.17710.

EY spectacular rise brought it staring at a major level. Can EY hold above wol? For how long?
GY lag at 162.90 taking cue from EY.

In short, today's markets are hesitant and stalling. Cheers

*** Every pip at the "wrong" current value is every pip less risky to fade. This is trading over/under valuation.

*** this is not a strategy introduction that should be done in the strategy section. This is a glimpse into the mind of a value speculator.

*** this once off market analysis is not a signal service. It's a demonstration how a value trader analyse the market.
Know what you trade
  • #2,759
  • Aug 30, 2022 4:09am Aug 30, 2022 4:09am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Yeah, that’s right Blue! Sitting back of the class with me..
And I'm sitting next to you with the Dunce Cap on my head :-(
  • #2,760
  • Aug 30, 2022 4:38am Aug 30, 2022 4:38am
Just a question BW. Are you using Market Profile in your charts?

Your strategy is a lot similar to market profile using the Auction Market Theory where the POC is the fair value (in your case the DOL, WOL, and MOL).

Further, in Auction Market Theory overvaluation/undervaluation is observed through the value areas (in your case thru ADR exhaustion?)
The market hides a perfect geometry.
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