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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,521
  • Edited 9:08am Aug 22, 2022 8:30am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting turnip15
And the dax from 15 minute time frame down ? 1 minute bar to trigger short trade Just thoughts on how I could use ideas here. Comments welcome {image} {image} {image}
Here's how I see the market as a value trader.

H4/H1 chart - Market traded bear daily candle last Friday. Market barely trade above dol. Very bearish sentiment with the open gap, look for sell trade. Look for h4 target at the bottom, 13151.9. This is the macro analysis for Mondays trading. Keep it simple with little complication.

Your entry method on M1/5 chart is good. Stick to it religiously as a standard trade entry protocol. The "PA" fits in perfectly to the macro analysis.
(Don't make the common mistake of interpreting low tf "PA" for macro analysis. "PA" is for entry purpose only.)

Your sell trade is successful because of the macro analysis of the market. It's important you learn this.

I post this as an example the simple day trading analysis I employ. Cheers.

Edit - For current NY market, look for buy trades on dips below 13200. Be careful because contrarian trades are the most risky. Delay this trade closer to London close.
Know what you trade
  • #2,522
  • Aug 22, 2022 9:22am Aug 22, 2022 9:22am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's how I see the market as a value trader. H4/H1 chart - Market traded bear daily candle last Friday. Market barely trade above dol. Very bearish sentiment with the open gap, look for sell trade. Look for h4 target at the bottom, 13151.9. This is the macro analysis for Mondays trading. Keep it simple with little complication. Your entry method on M1/5 chart is good. Stick to it religiously as a standard trade entry protocol. The "PA" fits in perfectly to the macro analysis. (Don't make the common mistake of interpreting low tf "PA" for...
Thanks BW. Your time given in critiquing my entries is greatly appreciated.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,523
  • Aug 22, 2022 10:10am Aug 22, 2022 10:10am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's how I see the market as a value trader. H4/H1 chart - Market traded bear daily candle last Friday. Market barely trade above dol. Very bearish sentiment with the open gap, look for sell trade. Look for h4 target at the bottom, 13151.9. This is the macro analysis for Mondays trading. Keep it simple with little complication. Your entry method on M1/5 chart is good. Stick to it religiously as a standard trade entry protocol. The "PA" fits in perfectly to the macro analysis. (Don't make the common mistake of interpreting low tf "PA" for...
Hi BW.
Thanks for the detailed replies which I copy to files for poring over the next few days.

This is how I see the Nasdaq from 4 hour down.
is it similar to what you note?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,524
  • Aug 22, 2022 10:31am Aug 22, 2022 10:31am
Good grief - I was marking up Texas oil as an exercise when the big green up bar took off to the 15 minute level I had drawn in.
I had no way of knowing it would shoot up but see how it hangs around that level.
What caused it I don't know but if I had shorts on this question mark areas they would have been blown out of the water.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,525
  • Aug 22, 2022 11:00am Aug 22, 2022 11:00am
Quoting turnip15
Hi BW. Thanks for the detailed replies which I copy to files for poring over the next few days. This is how I see the Nasdaq from 4 hour down. is it similar to what you note? {image} {image} {image}
Here's the difficult part of trading. You stare at the chart it points down. Price way below dol.

If you trade NY session, somewhere in your analysis must tell you that market will not trade lower. You have to think the opposite, for dax, nasdaq and oil. They are going up.

It's difficult to reverse your natural instinct, it's counter-intuitive. Your fear kicks in, you can't possibly take the risk to go long after all the selling today. Fear dominates you that you stop thinking. That's why most traders fail to do the right thing.

This happens every trading day. Repeatedly. Do this. Watch your emotion as the market falls to day low or rise to day high. Watch how your fear made you stay out of the market, it made you freeze.

Remember this, fear is with every trader in real time live market. This is your biggest enemy.

Imagine how more difficult for me to make that long call with a price level real time on a forum. Notice the market was not at that level yet when the call was made, it happened in the future. This is what real live trading is all about. It's about the future, always. Cheers

Quoting turnip15
Good grief - I was marking up Texas oil as an exercise when the big green up bar took off to the 15 minute level I had drawn in. I had no way of knowing it would shoot up but see how it hangs around that level. What caused it I don't know but if I had shorts on this question mark areas they would have been blown out of the water. {image}
Short at day high, long at day low. Just like what bluesteele wrote, trade from the outside.
Know what you trade
  • #2,526
  • Aug 22, 2022 11:22am Aug 22, 2022 11:22am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the difficult part of trading. You stare at the chart it points down. Price way below dol.
It's difficult to reverse your natural instinct, it's counter-intuitive. Your fear kicks in, you can't possibly take the risk to go long after all the selling today. Fear dominates you that you stop thinking. That's why most traders fail to do the right thing. This happens every trading day. Repeatedly. Do this. Watch your emotion as the market falls to day low or rise to day high. Watch how your fear made you stay out of the market, it made...
Hi BWilliam, I've been selling this pair for some time now. Is it time to place a speculative buy order? Hope you are well!
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  • #2,527
  • Aug 22, 2022 11:42am Aug 22, 2022 11:42am
Quoting GEfx
Hi BWilliam, I've been selling this pair for some time now. Is it time to place a speculative buy order? Hope you are well! {image}
Hi GEfx, I don't see any reason for a rebound after it broke parity today. There's nothing on the fundamental front that may suggest anything. Perhaps a pullback to 0.9970. Also watch for possible CB intervention.
Know what you trade
  • #2,528
  • Aug 22, 2022 12:29pm Aug 22, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting turnip15
Good grief - I was marking up Texas oil as an exercise when the big green up bar took off to the 15 minute level I had drawn in. I had no way of knowing it would shoot up but see how it hangs around that level. What caused it I don't know but if I had shorts on this question mark areas they would have been blown out of the water. {image}
Update - back up to around 90.000 level - why ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,529
  • Aug 22, 2022 12:34pm Aug 22, 2022 12:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi GEfx, I don't see any reason for a rebound after it broke parity today. There's nothing on the fundamental front that may suggest anything. Perhaps a pullback to 0.9970. Also watch for possible CB intervention.
I completely agree. If you consider PA since Friday, the market intent seems clear (same goes for the G$). Look for sell opportunities until the narrative changes. Trade well!
  • #2,530
  • Aug 22, 2022 12:35pm Aug 22, 2022 12:35pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Something along these lines ? Four hour chart with 4 hour low going back to 14th July - yellowish banded area bottom of chart Blue shaded area is a four hour FVG Small blue rectangle with two down arrows is the 5 minute ( used to trigger trades) FVG {image}
Update -1.7900 target - albeit it hit the 4 hour low?
1.18200 was a level price kept knocking against but not rising past it?

Interesting stuff this BW, Bluesteel and all.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,531
  • Aug 22, 2022 12:52pm Aug 22, 2022 12:52pm
Updated Nasdaq
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,532
  • Aug 22, 2022 2:01pm Aug 22, 2022 2:01pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the difficult part of trading. You stare at the chart it points down. Price way below dol. If you trade NY session, somewhere in your analysis must tell you that market will not trade lower. You have to think the opposite, for dax, nasdaq and oil. They are going up. It's difficult to reverse your natural instinct, it's counter-intuitive. Your fear kicks in, you can't possibly take the risk to go long after all the selling today. Fear dominates you that you stop thinking. That's why most traders fail to do the right thing. This happens...

Well said BW.... I was buying oil multiple trades from 86.45 to 87.00 ran my positions up to 88.45.. had a bit of a wait before price took off.. A very nice gain today... Done...

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,533
  • Aug 22, 2022 2:56pm Aug 22, 2022 2:56pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Update - back up to around 90.000 level - why ? {image}
@Bluesteele
@BWilliam

I was shorting in a vacuum as opposed to waiting for price to reach a level to aid decision making

Ah ! Perhaps the clue was in the 4 hour Low ? Price came down and made a FVG then LONG ?
Anyone?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,534
  • Aug 22, 2022 3:35pm Aug 22, 2022 3:35pm
Quoting Shabs19
This pdf by Tom Hougaard was posted on Forex Factory a good while back : {image}
Excellent stuff man!! Thank you very much. This will be my next project (this book).
  • #2,535
  • Aug 22, 2022 6:37pm Aug 22, 2022 6:37pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} @Bluesteele @BWilliam I was shorting in a vacuum as opposed to waiting for price to reach a level to aid decision making Ah ! Perhaps the clue was in the 4 hour Low ? Price came down and made a FVG then LONG ? Anyone?
If you short oil yesterday, you're trading contrarian, and that's a dangerous trade to take. If you do this risky contrarian trade long term you're bound to get hurt that one time that burn your account.

If you trade contrarian you have to do it right and get your entry perfect. On hindsight, that moment is London market level to short at 90.95.

At that time and price level, fear will freeze your brain that your stop thinking. There's only very very few traders who can see this macro analysis to go short against a rapidly rising market. The higher the market go, the lesser the risk. The trick to contrarian trade is to delay the short trade to the latest moment, or to go short AFTER the lower tf "PA" shows the turn. Never take the trade before that.

This oil market is bound to go up and stay up yesterday. That huge intraday plunge was a good opportunity to go long which bluesteele did at day bottom. The 2nd opportunity to go long is when you made that post above in NY market during the pullback.

Somewhere in your market analysis you must know oil will close bull candle. That's why it very important that your macro market analysis is accurate. What macro analysis means is simple. How does the market close for the day? Above or below dol?

Most technical analysis can't answer this simple question. That's why I wrote, traditional technical analysis is useless. It offended people, but it's the harsh truth.

If your macro market analysis did not tell you the market close bull yesterday, you're trading blind. You missed golden trading opportunities. Think deep about what I say. Read all my previous posts on this thread. I wrote a lot of details covering many aspects.

Remember this important point, your trades are successful because your macro analysis is correct. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,536
  • Aug 22, 2022 7:22pm Aug 22, 2022 7:22pm
Quoting BWilliam
Edit - For current NY market, look for buy trades on dips below 13200. Be careful because contrarian trades are the most risky. Delay this trade closer to London close.
Always make a habit to review your live macro analysis. There was no other trading opportunity in NY session except risky contrarian long trade, if you must trade a limited NY session.

The traders success depends on his read of future value intent of the market. You also have to pinpoint reasonably accurately the "turn" price level. That's two things, not one. If you don't believe this can be done, or you lack the ability to read this value intent and "turn" price level, then you're trading blind. Harsh truth. Cheers

Quoting BWilliam
Hi GEfx, I don't see any reason for a rebound after it broke parity today. There's nothing on the fundamental front that may suggest anything. Perhaps a pullback to 0.9970. Also watch for possible CB intervention.
How did I fare?
Know what you trade
  • #2,537
  • Aug 22, 2022 7:49pm Aug 22, 2022 7:49pm
As a trader you have to be comfortable and confident to talk market real time at current market, not some faraway price level. Hindsight analysis and faraway price level analysis is useless - there's no fear factor.

You do this real time "at market" macro analysis every trading day. As a trader you are the expert, if you're not then make yourself an expert.

If you're not confident yet, then talk macro analysis to yourself or into a plastic bag, jot down how and why you think the way you do. It's important to keep a journal of your real time macro analysis. Journal your macro analysis with or without trade, not your trades.

(Have anyone figured out why your real time macro analysis is more important than your real trades?)

When you acquire the knowledge and skill to read value intent and "turn" price level at market, then demonstrate your expertise on this thread. At the least, if you're not comfortable or confident, do it in private - write it down and throw it into a plastic bag. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,538
  • Edited 8:37pm Aug 22, 2022 8:09pm | Edited 8:37pm
Where does volume come into play?

For lower tf entry purpose at the expected "turn" price level.

Or you can use traditional "PA".

Chose one that you're comfortable with.

After your 100th trade, you don't need this volume crutch.
Throw it into the rubbish bin.
You don't want to keep, collect useless rubbish.
Another one bite the dust.

Cheers

*** remember, don't trade for scraps 50 times a day, that's stupid thinking. Trade the meat once a day, that's all you want. There are 28 currency pairs, find ONE. Wtf you have to restrict your trading to cryptos on some dodgy crypto exchange only?

*** for the umpteenth time, your trades are successful because you are correct with your macro analysis about future value intent.

It's got nothing to do with volume or "PA".
Know what you trade
  • #2,539
  • Aug 22, 2022 9:44pm Aug 22, 2022 9:44pm
Quoting BWilliam
Where does volume come into play? For lower tf entry purpose at the expected "turn" price level. Or you can use traditional "PA". Chose one that you're comfortable with. After your 100th trade, you don't need this volume crutch. Throw it into the rubbish bin. You don't want to keep, collect useless rubbish. Another one bite the dust. Cheers *** remember, don't trade for scraps 50 times a day, that's stupid thinking. Trade the meat once a day, that's all you want. There are 28 currency pairs, find ONE. Wtf you have to restrict your trading to cryptos...
SPOT FRICKING ON....BW

Heres my Oil trades from this morning... Could have I had better entries yep...Sometimes I nail them othertimes I dont... Point is im buying BELOW a number/level/price ALWAYS... Thats the line in the sand... Scalping for a few pips or points is a tough gig with the costs incurred let alone time and skewed RR.
Its why "some" go into heavy drawdown wink wink..... The real money in trading is in SCALEABLE SETUPS...that you can add size too.

Now this oil setup for me produced huge pips and a very healthy % gain and dollars too But i wasnt able to scale this one as I would have liked too..
just the way it goes sometimes.

With all that said some are happy to take a smaller chunk and thats ok...as is scalping if thats your thing... Trading has to suit your personality.. Me I like to do exactly what BW says... Go for the meaty moves and take a good bite of the apple and always add to my winners. Again tho these oil trades were simply get some decent entries below 87 and set and forget...as I had other things to do.

For TURNIP... I was simply buying below a level 87 as the peak formation low formed...as well knowing the 4hr candle rotation was at 1700 thus drawing different TF traders into the market very simply buying the low.

Wheres the $$$ it was underneath the swings as noted..which with zero coinicidence line up with BRNs.... the market was simply doing what it does....taking out highs and lows...grabbing liquidity. Always think where are traders profitable from...

Timings are also critically important ...whether its the 4hr candle rotations or equity open times. etc.... as noted there was an excellent setup just prior to the NY market...If you see where I have drawn the line below 90.500 from the NY session..(after my 12 bar window) That swing high is the actual NY high..hard to comprehend at first. but that is a boomer of a setup... Much cleaner than my setup at the low..

Study my charts and you will see they all are the same..... Hope this helps you Turnip

Cheers
Blue

PS Losing trade was a fat finger mistake...pressed sell instead of buy...by the time I noticed cost me 11 or 12 pips lol

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,540
  • Aug 22, 2022 9:57pm Aug 22, 2022 9:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} How did I fare?
You nailed it!
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