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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,981
  • Jul 2, 2022 12:48pm Jul 2, 2022 12:48pm
[quote=deanyakobs;14052811]{quote} And if this is true, i think this is how market maker really work in his mathematic Algo
Hi Dean ,Bwillam
I kindly request you to explain your valuable knowledge in trading in understandable projection on
Targets, dol , fractal nature of market
  • #1,982
  • Edited 3:10pm Jul 2, 2022 1:51pm | Edited 3:10pm
[quote=venkatredy;14052819]
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} And if this is true, i think this is how market maker really work in his mathematic Algo Hi Dean ,Bwillam I kindly request you to explain your valuable knowledge in trading in understandable projection on Targets, dol , fractal nature of market
https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/
Flying Dutchman

The legend that reveals itself to the lucky few....
  • #1,983
  • Jul 2, 2022 3:25pm Jul 2, 2022 3:25pm
Quoting Onra
{quote} That's interesting; thanks! Two questions: • what is a PFH? • is the amount of overshoot / failure of any importance?
Hi Onra...
PFH= Peak Formation High
PFL= Peak Formation Low

Amount of overshoot is not important in the sense of the formation...
I only look at the Momentum candles going into the formation and the candles as the finish the formation.

Increasing candle size with large full bodies little wicks... Followed by several long wicked candles at a Peak formation level.. I'm jumping in with a tight stop
and either I'm wrong or right. If the candles are not too my liking then I will wait for a retest as confirmation to get in.

So as to overshoot...doesn't really matter if it 10,20,50 pips.. Its all about the context of where it forms (outside)/timing of day session and candle formations.. That is why I have the session boxes outlined in different colors...12-15m bars=3 hours...all timed around global market opens(volatility/liquidity)
And yes Failure is required to form the pattern...Candle shape forming the failure can give higher probability setups with better risk mgmt... Just look at the charts I have posted and you will get it...As well Look at my recent last post or two where I show the GJ hitting the prev days low then blowing thru hitting the Prev week low and blowing thru... Those candles were the start of a PFL but the failure didn't happen... The bearish momentum continued strongly down...


Here are some charts showing "Some" PFH/PFL...there are numerous others on the chart.
As well take note of the Pink Lines and the relationship each session has to the one before.. The mechanics...the breathing. The rhythm of the market moving from one high to another high from one low to another low...whether inter-session sessions or prev day or daily etc...

Many factors but relatively simple to trade PFHs and PFLs.. notice the candles running INTO/AT & AWAY from the TARGETS...
Nothing fancy... Plain old time tested Market Mechanics and structure...

TARGETS TARGETS TARGETS....as George would say

Cheers
Blue
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM1 PFH JUNE 28 CLOSE UP CANDLE FORMATIONS.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM5 PFH JUNE 28 CLOSE UP CANDLE FORMATIONS.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM1 PFH PFL 1M BIG PICTURE.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM15 PFH PFL Candle formations around Highs and Lows.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM5 PFHs PFLs Trading from the Outside.png Size: 48 KB
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,984
  • Edited 10:12pm Jul 2, 2022 5:59pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting deanyakobs
https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/ Flying Dutchman The legend that reveals itself to the lucky few....
Hi deano, epsilon theory is an academic write-up of the post-modern internet era of currency speculation. Its a long article to read that's well worth your time.

I pick some excerpts that's important in practical application.

This is the equivalent to technical analysis(this is the reason why I wrote reference to poker in my past posts),

"Econometric or factor analysis is the equivalent of “playing the cards”, where decisions are based on the odds of this card or that card appearing relative to the revealed strengths of other players’ hands and the potential stakes to be won or lost."

This is what George refers to as the psychology of market manipulation,

" Game theoretic analysis, on the other hand, is the equivalent of “playing the player”, where decisions are based on a strategic assessment of the likely behavior of other players relative to the informational signals provided by bets."

We learn there exist 2 worlds, technical and fundamental analysis and game theory.

There's a clear disjoint between these 2 worlds that co-exist in one market. Technical analysis variables can't be used in game theory.

Targets is the technical analysis variable.
Which target is the game theory variable.

This is why this question "which target" is not a simple question to answer - whose answer is found in game theory. It starts with understanding the question you ask.

This is what "waiting" with patience means,

"You wait because it is the act of making public statements that creates Common Knowledge, and until those public statements are made you don’t know what move to make in the game."

"Public statements" is not news announcements about policy. It refers to "public statements" made on the chart.
Know what you trade
  • #1,985
  • Jul 2, 2022 6:05pm Jul 2, 2022 6:05pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi deano, epsilon theory is an academic write-up of the post-modern internet era of currency speculation. Its a long article to read that's well worth your time. I pick some excerpts that's important in practical application. This is the equivalent of technical analysis, "Econometric or factor analysis is the equivalent of “playing the cards”, where decisions are based on the odds of this card or that card appearing relative to the revealed strengths of other players’ hands and the potential stakes to be won or lost." This is what George...
Assess probability, wait for other players to show their hands, then follow the one who can see through the shoe!
  • #1,986
  • Jul 2, 2022 6:16pm Jul 2, 2022 6:16pm
Quoting venkatredy
Hi Dean ,Bwillam I kindly request you to explain your valuable knowledge in trading in understandable projection on Targets, dol , fractal nature of market
Hi venkatredy, explanation in post above. Andy's post is the summary. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,987
  • Jul 2, 2022 6:26pm Jul 2, 2022 6:26pm
One of the most important reasons for failure, not playing the player! Or in football.... ball watching!

Took me greater than ten years to work that out.

Never has a quote been so true.

Game theoretic analysis, on the other hand, is the equivalent of “playing the player”, where decisions are based on a strategic assessment of the likely behavior of other players relative to the informational signals provided by bets

Then think what happens when one joins the heard at the same time in the same direction,

do they win, are they the 95%.... watching the ball, not the man.
  • #1,988
  • Jul 2, 2022 6:46pm Jul 2, 2022 6:46pm
Quoting moodybot
One of the most important reasons for failure, not playing the player! Or in football.... ball watching! Took me greater than ten years to work that out.
Hi Andy, took me equally long time too.

We've been saying on real or algo thread. That's 1year repeating the same thing - same conversation. Lol
Know what you trade
  • #1,989
  • Jul 2, 2022 7:06pm Jul 2, 2022 7:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, took me equally long time too. We've been saying on real or algo thread. That's 1year repeating the same thing - same conversation. Lol
We have J, and like the perceived markets, we keep cycling around
  • #1,990
  • Jul 2, 2022 7:28pm Jul 2, 2022 7:28pm
Quoting moodybot
One of the most important reasons for failure, not playing the player! Or in football.... ball watching! Took me greater than ten years to work that out. Never has a quote been so true. Game theoretic analysis, on the other hand, is the equivalent of “playing the player”, where decisions are based on a strategic assessment of the likely behavior of other players relative to the informational signals provided by bets Then think what happens when one joins the heard at the same time in the same direction, do they win, are they the 95%.... watching...
"Then think what happens when one joins the heard at the same time in the same direction"

Its called .............. DELTA

You need .............. VOLUME

You will win 95% of trades provide volume levels are strong, the secret is to cut that losing trade early.
Friday night along with the third amigo, I took 115 trades on EURUSD with just 1 loss.
(Data sourced from EU6U22)
No need even for a candlestick chart if you want to be a smartass like ryu

Follow the Herd Delta

You know what this thread needs is less talk and some bloody trades shown on real live accounts.
We all know the only one's reading this thread are the guys who actually post here. Believe me - traders are looking to make money, they are not here to place likes because they care about the BS written here.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,991
  • Jul 2, 2022 7:46pm Jul 2, 2022 7:46pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} "Then think what happens when one joins the heard at the same time in the same direction" Its called .............. DELTA You need .............. VOLUME You will win 95% of trades provide volume levels are strong, the secret is to cut that losing trade early. Friday night along with the third amigo, I took 115 trades on EURUSD with just 1 loss. (Data sourced from EU6U22) No need even for a candlestick chart if you want to be a smartass like ryu Follow the Herd Delta You know what this thread needs is less talk and some bloody trades...
Thanks Rick, great idea. Perhaps put your trades up and explain your reasoning and thought process behind the move. If you could show it on Forex (GJ)? and M1 time frame I’ll check your entries with Petes charts and perhaps there would be a lesson in it for all of us.

Can you confirm that Rudy is pre-booking his wins, looks like he did really well for the whole month of July. Awesome prebooked profits. If Rudy is nailing the Crypto, why are you back on EURUSD?
I didn’t think it had enough liquidity for you.

Thanks.
  • #1,992
  • Edited 10:08pm Jul 2, 2022 8:25pm | Edited 10:08pm
The problems with delta are - we can't use it on forex market to trade it with Forex brokers. We can't use it to trade GJ for example. We can't use it to trade on larger time frame like H1 chart as example. We have to wait for the exact last micro-second for delta to flip. Delta does not show when the signal end. Delta can't explain for on-going market. Every trader on the futures market has this same delta data that renders it useless. And so on....

I only write the facts, I don't write criticisms(if I did I apologise and withdraw those unwarranted comments), if facts are incorrect we simply point them out and correct them. Members are intelligent enough to make up their mind. I don't want to get into a quarrel. I don't interact with angry, insecure members. This is a discussion where interested members write their opinion on the topic. There's no FF rule requiring members to show their live trades/accounts before posting on discussion threads - if any member require this rule, then create your own discussion thread that imposes this posting rule. If any member feel what's discussed is bs, then point out the exact opinion and explain why he/she feels this way. If bs was written, then laugh it off, ignore the post/poster, move to other threads, why get angry and keep coming back to useless bs unless. Discuss the topic, not about ourself or someone else. Angry members should not hijack this discussion. Lastly, none of the regular posters on this thread is out to convince someone else. This thread is not out to attract viewership. We're just enjoying chatting Forex especially on the non-trading weekend. For chatting Forex, whatever opinion you may have(anything is welcomed), this thread is a safe place for you - just don't be angry, insecure and rude pls.(last time I write this)

Thanks to moodybot for hosting such a nice thread. Thank you mate. Cheers

Quoting moodybot
Thanks Rick, great idea. Perhaps put your trades up and explain your reasoning and thought process behind the move. If you could show it on Forex (GJ)? and M1 time frame I’ll check your entries with Petes charts and perhaps there would be a lesson in it for all of us.
Yes, we can learn from delta traders. If only they're willing. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,993
  • Jul 2, 2022 9:38pm Jul 2, 2022 9:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
The problems with delta are - we can't use it on forex market to trade it with Forex brokers. We can't use it to trade GJ for example. We can't use it to trade on larger time frame like H1 chart as example. We have to wait for the exact last micro-second for delta to flip. Delta does not show when the signal end. Delta can't explain for on-going market. Every trader on the futures market has this same delta data that renders it useless. And so on.... I only write the facts, I don't write criticisms(if I did I apologise and withdraw those unwarranted...

Thanks J for taking the time to post.
Angry members are just following the course of human nature which circles back to why are they angry!
When are people most likely to be angry .... usually when life gets on top or things are just not working out.
Human nature.
Hard wired.
Predictable.
  • #1,994
  • Edited 1:13am Jul 3, 2022 12:46am | Edited 1:13am
Hi @Rick,
Why are you so angry?
Inner peace, inner peace, inner peace.
________________________________
Don't trade for crumbs (for few points), you will lose everything with a slight wind or trade the crumbs, but learn something for stormy weather, even for tornadoes. Nothing works forever; rules change, people change, world changes. Learning/Adaptation

Inner peace, inner peace, inner peace.
Buy US500 on Monday, you will see how the magic works. This is Hogwarts
Happy trading at weekends
  • #1,995
  • Jul 3, 2022 1:38am Jul 3, 2022 1:38am
Dear members

Since past 4 years i am only trying to understand the George target theory but i am unable to understand where i am missing the actual knowledge,

By reading some of other members post reg George target i am confused and making the mind confused,

Finally i understood no members reveal the actual truth and thank u for the members who replied to my post,

May be i am unfit to unzip the Riddles /puzzles.
  • #1,996
  • Jul 3, 2022 3:13am Jul 3, 2022 3:13am
Quoting venkatredy
Dear members Since past 4 years i am only trying to understand the George target theory but i am unable to understand where i am missing the actual knowledge, By reading some of other members post reg George target i am confused and making the mind confused, Finally i understood no members reveal the actual truth and thank u for the members who replied to my post, May be i am unfit to unzip the Riddles /puzzles.
Open up a chart, H4, draw a line showing where price is now.
Look above the line and find the very next weekly high that is unbroken.
Continue looking for subsequent weekly highs, greater than the previous, so building up a grid of lines
Then do the same for the weekly lows.
These would be the long term targets.
Pete and Kevin have both shown charts with Daily High/Lows and previous day High/Lows, all of them are targets.
Price will move between them and will take them out, in doing so setting fresh targets.
  • #1,997
  • Jul 3, 2022 3:45am Jul 3, 2022 3:45am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Open up a chart, H4, draw a line showing where price is now. Look above the line and find the very next weekly high that is unbroken. Continue looking for subsequent weekly highs, greater than the previous, so building up a grid of lines Then do the same for the weekly lows. These would be the long term targets. Pete and Kevin have both shown charts with Daily High/Lows and previous day High/Lows, all of them are targets. Price will move between them and will take them out, in doing so setting fresh targets.
Thank u moody bot for replying to my post
Already i did the same as you mentioned but problem for me is draw down ,
Some trades i am in profit and some trades my stop-loss hits due to early entry,
As i am from India i cant trade Forex as it prohibited from india so i had to trade stock and indies ,
so in our India indies no option to hedge,
I request you to share some valuable suggestion with pics if possible.
  • #1,998
  • Jul 3, 2022 4:12am Jul 3, 2022 4:12am
Quoting venkatredy
{quote} Thank u moody bot for replying to my post Already i did the same as you mentioned but problem for me is draw down , Some trades i am in profit and some trades my stop-loss hits due to early entry, As i am from India i cant trade Forex as it prohibited from india so i had to trade stock and indies , so in our India indies no option to hedge, I request you to share some valuable suggestion with pics if possible.
On this thread are charts and descriptions from various people. Each and everyone trades differently depending on preferred instruments, time zones, whether scalping, swing trading etc. It really comes down to fine tuning a method that suits you. Pete scalps, I’ve tried it, I don’t do too good, Rick takes 135 trades in one night, one loss, with those figures who should you follow. Start with price and mark up the swing points and trade them, to, from on demo and try to get confluence when making decisions. Work out what works for you.
Save your money until you feel confident otherwise your throwing it away, even then, it’s not easy.
  • #1,999
  • Jul 3, 2022 4:21am Jul 3, 2022 4:21am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} On this thread are charts and descriptions from various people. Each and everyone trades differently depending on preferred instruments, time zones, whether scalping, swing trading etc. It really comes down to fine tuning a method that suits you. Pete scalps, I’ve tried it, I don’t do too good, Rick takes 135 trades in one night, one loss, with those figures who should you follow. Start with price and mark up the swing points and trade them, to, from on demo and try to get confluence when making decisions. Work out what works for you. Save...
sure moodybot as per your reply i will definitely try my own method which suit me.
  • #2,000
  • Jul 3, 2022 5:25am Jul 3, 2022 5:25am
As for EU, this pair is fighting many battles (sometimes loss, sometimes won) to win the war to make new LL. Thursday and Friday was double bottom attack. Again couldn't conquer the LL.
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