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  • #1,961
  • Jul 1, 2022 1:35pm Jul 1, 2022 1:35pm
Quoting Ihlas
Let's dial some numbers. {image}
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Quoting Ihlas
{quote} {image}

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Well done Ihlas... I really dont trade currencies mostly indices...But I see this is a trade I would have taken myself.
We have a 3 day rise Mon Tues Weds which culminates in a PFH peak formation high... A typical 3 day/Wednesday scenario that I know MoodyBot Andy is keen on

Why a PFH? well price takes out the previous weeks high PWH and fails to move higher...resulting in the market trapping long traders and taking out short sellers stops above PWH ... Price goes 30 pips above the PWH up to 137.00 and falls.
That big yellow box is trapped Volume and as Asia session begins Asia sets the Daily high just above the PWH with a nice bearish gravestone Doji..

We know that each day the markets move from H-L and L-H towards PDH and PDLs and previous session H/Ls Simple Market Mechanics.
So important these "Horizontal lines" whether they are Monthly/Weekly/Daily/Session open/close...Monthly/Weekly/Daily/Session High/Low.

The phenomenal trader with 50 years of high 40+% avg. returns Peter Brandt is a classical chartist trader... He Highly favors "Horizontal Lines" for a reason as many of us know Must be something to it eh ?

Back to the UJ anyways as Ive said Trade from the outside...and this Trade of Ihlas is a textbook prime example...Perfection really IMO..
So many things in play from the PFH of the Week to the PFH of Asia where a beautiful entry is.. From the PFH kissing 137 BRN to the trapped volume of long traders...to the PDL target ( yes a horizontal line representing price lol) Like a symphony of textbook Market Mechanics with all parts in harmony..

And did anyone notice the precision of the GJ in Asia...Price heading down stopping on a dime on the PDL and plowing thru...then stopping precisely on the PWL and then plowing thru settting up the huge run down. Which is a good lesson to never make a trade simply off price touching a line...you need context and confluencing factors or you will get burnt. Been their done that one more than once lol...not too many mistakes I havent done multiples of times lol...

So heres some of my charts of the UJ with my take on "Demystifying" Ihlas's great trades... Many ways to trade as Pete says this is just my take on what works for me....

Cheers and have a great weekend to All,,,
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,962
  • Edited 4:46pm Jul 1, 2022 4:30pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting bluesteele
Which is a good lesson to never make a trade simply off price touching a line...you need context and confluencing factors or you will get burnt. Been their done that one more than once lol...not too many mistakes I havent done multiples of times lol...
Nice Kev. I have to re-emphasise what Kev wrote. I wrote this earlier as never reverse a spike. It's a painful lesson to learn. There're reasons why not.(price could be on a "grind")
Know what you trade
  • #1,963
  • Jul 1, 2022 6:08pm Jul 1, 2022 6:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nice Kev. I have to re-emphasise what Kev wrote. I wrote this earlier as never reverse a spike. It's a painful lesson to learn. There're reasons why not.(price could be on a "grind")
With enough screen time and the "correct knowledge" one begins to have an understanding of "Momentum"
Now I have seen Pete refer to "Thrust" candles... On the charts I will show here you see Large 15M bearish candle coming into the weekly low..
Candle size (this 15m candle is 40 pips) is quite telling...especially when you have several large candles running into a H/L.... don't take the reversal immediately.
Now if candle size is shrinking as they approach a target line...you have an idea that momentum is slowing... Strong large full candles beware they may just keep on going far past where you think is possible.

You can see with these GJ charts price hits the PDL then the PWL and keeps on trucking. nullifying any long trades.
Conversely with my previous post on the Ihlas UJ trade....Price Moves strongly thru the Previous week high... BUT it quickly loses steam
and then we have some strong reversal candles with the 18:00 candle closing STRONGLY back beneath the PWH... Now I do sometimes trade aggressively and taken shorts at that candles close. But the safe money is always on the retest. Sometimes it will never come back and you miss out...But that's trading and theirs always another.

As Jason BW says never reverse a spike...I generally wholeheartedly agree BUT you can play the game and go for it with a tight stop and you will either land on the right side of probabilities or the wrong side... Nowadays I prefer to play it safer and still get the same or better returns with a confluence of factors.


So anyways with these two pairs and their reactions UJ to the Prev Week High and the GJs reaction to Prev Week Low you can see their is much more to these targets these lines etc...some we trade to or from it takes a well rounded knowledge of Market mechanics with many factors to do successfully ...and even when all is correct and the stars line up the trade can tank on you...But that's trading and risk mgmt. is your best friend in those circumstances..

So here's a GJ chart I took a screenshot as the lows were hit pondering what next..The market quickly revealed its short hand ...

Discretionary trading at its best...who doesn't love a great puzzle

Lesson here is dont just nilly willy trade off a line... look at that GJ GRIND !!!

Cheers
Blue


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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,964
  • Edited 7:25pm Jul 1, 2022 7:12pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote}
As Jason BW says never reverse a spike...I generally wholeheartedly agree
BUT you can play the game and go for it with a tight stop and you will either land on the right side of probabilities or the wrong side...
Nowadays I prefer to play it safer and still get the same or better returns with a confluence of factors.
Discretionary trading at its best...who doesn't love a great puzzle
Lesson here is dont just nilly willy trade off a line... look at that GJ GRIND !!! Cheers...

Hi Kev,

Great summation pal, and being quite risk averse myself, these days I will wait to see the reaction after a spike.
There can be tell-tale signs from the very next 4 to 6 (x 1 min) candles.
But NOT always and this becomes advanced trading stuff anyways that experienced traders will already have seen many times.
Though for newer or new traders I recommend great patience.

With any Target trading, after momentum (and not necessarily a singular thrust),
I still cannot see how a trader can just assume that any target is a stop & reverse signal,
WITHOUT taking into account the full market structure and market behaviour/mechanics around that target.

That is why I prefer to trade to targets (probably 70/30 depending on the immediate market circumstances).

Because then, if the closest target is NOT the final destination candle this session,
well it still HAS to be reached/taken FIRST lol,
price cannot jump over that first target to reach the next targets above/below it.
The first target, if you have direction correct, is gold.

But the 1st target often will notallow for full maximisation of TP profit, certainly if price then "runs through" that target to the next.
It's a game of balance imo.


ps Kev
I also usually get a smile on GBPJPY when I wake up in the morning in Oz,
especially after the "New York Open, the Franky Close & the London Close" market behaviours.
a first day of the new month solid grinder yesterday, wow, almost 2 x adr at 370 pips
(so did the BOJ finally proxy-in with a short-term correction, who knows?)

(Plus I would also need to change my trading actions a little I would imagine,
from my current Asia-Trading-Action,
should I be living where NY was my prime trading time.
By that I mean I'm also a discretionary trader and trade to the current circumstance, not to a set-in-stone system)

cheers Kev & all
all the best
  • #1,965
  • Edited Jul 2, 2022 12:48am Jul 1, 2022 8:29pm | Edited Jul 2, 2022 12:48am
A little more about market structure.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829

The market move from buy to sell to buy hemisphere in continuous cycles. This buy/sell cycle is not demarcated on the y-price axis. It's demarcated on the x-time axis. Small cycles revolve around medium cycles which revolve around large cycles.

Price is continuously oscillating between y-price target axis and at the same time oscillates between x-time axis.

You can see a contradiction in the buy/sell hemisphere which is expressed in time and not price.

The purpose of the open line marks the open price(for comparison) as well as the start time of a set time cycle. Open price doesn't mark the start of a new buy/sell cycle.

If the trader open long position during the buy hemisphere he trades following the cycle vv.
If the trader open sell position during buy hemisphere he trades against the cycle, contrarian vv.

Conclusion - follow the cycle or contrarian. (follow the trend is inaccurate). Remember, there're small, medium and large cycles.

(edit)
Buy - higher value, sell - lower value, buy/sell - higher/lower value

About cycles, like many other things, we either accept op's definition or we define it. Be aware of that.
Know what you trade
  • #1,966
  • Jul 1, 2022 8:32pm Jul 1, 2022 8:32pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Kev, Great summation pal, and being quite risk averse myself, these days I will wait to see the reaction after a spike. There can be tell-tale signs from the very next 4 to 6 (x 1 min) candles. But NOT always and this becomes advanced trading stuff anyways that experienced traders will already have seen many times. Though for newer or new traders I recommend great patience. With any Target trading, after momentum (and not necessarily a singular thrust), I still cannot see how a trader can just assume that any target is a stop & reverse...
First targets = Gold ...very true Pete and something many miss...
Which is Exactly how I have devised my methodology of US session Indices trades.. first target is gold the rest are gravy..if you can hold them..

First day of the month is a story upon itself..so not surpising the GJ literally blasting it's way down... I am 100% certain many traders blew themselves up on the GJ averaging down until they could no more..OUCH.... Nature of the beast lol...

I seem to recall it was mmm 2008 or so and I got blown up on a move on the GJ much like we just had. I kept averaging down until I went tilt... That was after a hell of a good long win streak too..thought I was too good for my own britches...only to be handed my ass .. lesson learned more than once....

Anyways First targets are Gold...Thanks for the reminder Pete a very important observation!!!
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,967
  • Jul 2, 2022 3:24am Jul 2, 2022 3:24am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} {image} {quote} {image} Well done Ihlas... I really dont trade currencies mostly indices...But I see this is a trade I would have taken myself. We have a 3 day rise Mon Tues Weds which culminates in a PFH peak formation high... A typical 3 day/Wednesday scenario that I know MoodyBot Andy is keen on Why a PFH? well price takes out the previous weeks high PWH and fails to move higher...resulting in the market trapping long traders and taking out short sellers stops above PWH ... Price goes 30 pips above the PWH up to 137.00 and falls....
Thanks bluesteele,
You have shown that the set up has good confluence zone, but I don't only rely on these confluence zones. I like US indices, there are really incredibly good setups.
Have a good weekend!
  • #1,968
  • Jul 2, 2022 3:48am Jul 2, 2022 3:48am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} {image} {quote} {image} Well done Ihlas... I really dont trade currencies mostly indices...But I see this is a trade I would have taken myself. We have a 3 day rise Mon Tues Weds which culminates in a PFH peak formation high... A typical 3 day/Wednesday scenario that I know MoodyBot Andy is keen on Why a PFH? well price takes out the previous weeks high PWH and fails to move higher...resulting in the market trapping long traders and taking out short sellers stops above PWH ... Price goes 30 pips above the PWH up to 137.00 and falls....
That's interesting; thanks!
Two questions:
• what is a PFH?
• is the amount of overshoot / failure of any importance?
  • #1,969
  • Jul 2, 2022 3:55am Jul 2, 2022 3:55am
Quoting BWilliam
A little more about market structure. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829 The market move from buy to sell to buy hemisphere in continuous cycles. This buy/sell cycle is not demarcated on the y-price axis. It's demarcated on the x-time axis. Small cycles revolve around medium cycles which revolve around large cycles. Price is continuously oscillating between y-price target axis and at the same time oscillates between x-time axis. You can see a contradiction in the buy/sell hemisphere which is expressed in time...

...fascinating (though I don't understand it; neither CrucialPoint for that matter, with his 6 dimensions...)
How can it oscillate between the time axis...?!?!
  • #1,970
  • Edited 10:34am Jul 2, 2022 7:14am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting BWilliam
If the trader open long position during the buy hemisphere he trades following the cycle vv. If the trader open sell position during buy hemisphere he trades against the cycle, contrarian vv.

About cycles, like many other things, we either accept op's definition or we define it. Be aware of that.
The buy/sell hemispheres are visible to the naked eye. Mark the hemispheres the way it appears to you.

What's important is the first paragraph above. Be aware what trader you are, what's your trading philosophy. Your trading behaviour follows your trading philosophy. Read the post content to know the FF members trading philosophy. Many members are not comfortable with philosophy different from theirs.

Are you a cycle following swing or position trader?
Or,
A contrarian scalper, swing or position trader?

The most successful contrarian trader is George Soros who propounds his theory of price reflexivity.
Know what you trade
  • #1,971
  • Edited 9:00am Jul 2, 2022 8:29am | Edited 9:00am
Thanks Flying Dutchman,
Dear sir BW, how to read between the line if i may ask ?

Is market structure the key of profitable trading ? (the observed)
its seem not or not complete

If not complete
Then, its understanding of market structure that also important (the observer)

close enough, maybe
then

whats next ?
maybe you mean by complete understanding is that we as trader NOT ONLY must understand complete market structure as a wholle in small, medium and large format (the observed, again) BUT we must also understands that universal market structures from the point of view of different market participatants thinking process about the same market structures

in other words, we must also include and 'calculate' how this different market participant are thinking about this same market structures ?
then and only then, we can answer the question about WHICH DIRECTION the TARGET ABOVE or BELOW WILL TAKEN FIRST ? ('forecasting' mode)

this implies that we must adopt (at all time) the second level thinking while observing and learn to make better educated guess about WHICH TARGET ?, maybe
like John Maynard Keynes said in his famous quote

'Successful investing trading is anticipating the anticipations of others'

'Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; while speculation trading is the activity of forecasting (or anticipating, maybe) the psychology of "the market"

then, WHO is the market ??
is HE Market Maker ? or different Market Participants ? a.k.a swing trader, position trader, scalper trader.

“Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that teach competitor has to pick not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one's judgement are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.”

is this THE COMPLETE that must we aim as trader?
is this missing link that we probably overlook ?

to anticipating what average opinion/mindset of a position trader, a swing trader and a scalper trader expects about what the target they think will taken first ? (the average opinion to be).

in others words, we must anticipate what they anticipate about what the target will taken first ?

i don't know
still rambling and contemplating here
i'm getting nuts
is this correct variant perception ?

also we must aware about our style of trading, maybe
are we contrarian scalper ?
or cycle following scalper ?
whooooa

Flying Dutchman crew is ghost indeed
  • #1,972
  • Jul 2, 2022 8:46am Jul 2, 2022 8:46am
Quoting Onra
{quote} That's interesting; thanks! Two questions: • what is a PFH? • is the amount of overshoot / failure of any importance?
peak formation high, maybe

on weekly

or daily

still jazzy
  • #1,973
  • Jul 2, 2022 8:54am Jul 2, 2022 8:54am
Quoting deanyakobs
Thanks Flying Dutchman, Dear sir BW, how to read between the line if i may ask ? Is market structure the key of profitable trading ? (the observed) its seem not or not complete If not complete Then, its understanding of market structure that also important (the observer) close enough, maybe then whats next ? maybe you mean by complete understanding is that we as trader NOT ONLY must understand complete market structure as a wholle in small, medium and large format (the observed, again) BUT we must also understands that universal market structures...
Hi Deano, lets look at EU friday market as example.

If you were a intraday trader, ie. open/close trade within the day you might mark the H1 chart with targets1 and 2.
If you were an intraweek trader, ie. open/close trade within the week you might mark the H4 chart with targets1,2 and 3.

To the intraday trader he may see his H1 chart a buy hemisphere before the plunge.
To the intraweek trader he may see his H4 chart an on-going sell hemisphere.

Market structure is fractal. So we have to consider the larger and smaller fractals in our analysis to identify the next target. In this specific case, which target is most likely(probabilistically) the next target taking into account other traders perspective?

This is the job of the trader, the analysis of market structure in real time market. This skill can only be attained by practice honing his knowledge of market structure. The targets are few, the difficult question is which target - a tricky question of either or.

The real problem with most traders is they have inherited market structure knowledge. And traders don't look outside the scope of his strategy.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,974
  • Jul 2, 2022 9:06am Jul 2, 2022 9:06am
[quote=BWilliam;14052760]{quote} So we have to consider the larger and smaller fractals in our analysis to identify the next target. In this specific case, which target is most likely(probabilistically) the next target taking into account other traders perspective? This is the job of the trader, the analysis of market structure in real time market.

my head spin ,
i must get out from Flying Dutchman crew
too deep

screwing my English at highest order
  • #1,975
  • Jul 2, 2022 9:08am Jul 2, 2022 9:08am
Quoting deanyakobs
We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.”

is this THE COMPLETE that must we aim as trader? is this missing link that we probably overlook ? to anticipating what average opinion/mindset of a position trader, a swing trader and a scalper trader expects about what the target they think will taken first ? (the average opinion to be). in others words, we must anticipate what...
Hi deano, yes that's the complete market structure analysis.
Know what you trade
  • #1,976
  • Edited 9:36am Jul 2, 2022 9:22am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi deano, yes that's the complete market structure analysis.
NI HAO MA

uuuuuummaach,
at the end, after drinking my beer and looking my loving hamster
i can make better probability guess about read between the line in the sand.

Market is human,
in other words we don't trade the market.
But we trade their thought about the market (a.k.a THE TARGET)
so, we trade the human beings
we trade their question about which target will taken first ?
not the target itself, maybe

Flying dutchman crew is real and very very strange.

Thanks sir BW
  • #1,977
  • Jul 2, 2022 9:38am Jul 2, 2022 9:38am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The real problem with most traders is they have inherited market structure knowledge. And traders don't look outside the scope of his strategy. {image} {image} {image}
the overlook, and unseen.
THIRD DEGREE THINKING
  • #1,978
  • Edited 11:38am Jul 2, 2022 9:52am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting deanyakobs
NI HAO MA uuuuuummaach, at the end, after drinking my beer and looking my loving hamster i can make better probability guess about read between the line in the sand. Market is human, in other words we don't trade the market. But we trade their thought about the market (a.k.a THE TARGET) so, we trade the human beings we trade their question about which target will taken first ? not the target itself, maybe Flying dutchman crew is real and very very strange. Thanks sir BW
Hi deano, in short, the market(participants) intent of the future value. It may sound difficult but it's not. (I did EU analysis in a few minutes). Most people have not tried to watch this in real time market. Earlier I wrote a reply to Ohitsyou to explain how the real world FX market function. The algo math is derived from this. This means you can't write the math unless you attain a complete knowledge of market structure - for those curious about the math. It means math defined market structure.

Quoting deanyakobs
Thanks Flying Dutchman, Dear sir BW, how to read between the line if i may ask ? Is market structure the key of profitable trading ? (the observed) its seem not or not complete If not complete Then, its understanding of market structure that also important (the observer) close enough, maybe then whats next ? maybe you mean by complete understanding is that we as trader NOT ONLY must understand complete market structure as a wholle in small, medium and large format (the observed, again) BUT we must also understands that universal market structures from the point of view of different market participatants thinking process about the same market structures in other words, we must also include and 'calculate' how this different market participant are thinking about this same market structures ? then and only then, we can answer the question about WHICH DIRECTION the TARGET ABOVE or BELOW WILL TAKEN FIRST ? ('forecasting' mode) this implies that we must adopt (at all time) the second level thinking while observing and learn to make better educated guess about WHICH TARGET ?,...
Bang Deano, you have attained a much better understanding about fx trading. Cheers
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Know what you trade
  • #1,979
  • Jul 2, 2022 12:03pm Jul 2, 2022 12:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi deano, in short, the market(participants) intent of the future value. It may sound difficult but it's not. (I did EU analysis in a few minutes). Most people have not tried to watch this in real time market. Earlier I wrote a reply to Ohitsyou to explain how the real world FX market function. The algo math is derived from this. This means you can't write the math unless you attain a complete knowledge of market structure - for those curious about the math. It means math defined market structure. {quote} Bang Deano, you have attained a...
And if this is true, i think this is how market maker really work in his mathematic Algo code.
Soo advance in mathematics, i don't know how He can make a mathematics formula based THIRD, FOUR or maybe FIVE DEGREE THINKING and embeded/adding it in his programme.

So, its not what position, scalper and swing trader market participant thinking per see. But It is how the Algo really work in practice (real time).
Woow ... mathematics nerd at highest order.

Game theory is only useful for social phenomena. It is a methodology for understanding strategic decision making within informational constraints. I say “strategic” because, like the tango, it takes (at least) two decision makers to play a game, and each player’s decisions are made in the context of expectations regarding the other player’s decision-making process. Game theory does not see the world in terms of factors and historical correlations. It sees the world in terms of equilibria, as decision-making balance points where strategically-aware players have no incentive to make alternative decisions. Movement from one equilibrium to another is determined entirely by changes in the perceived pay-offs of the possible decisions, which is another way of saying that behavioral change is determined entirely by a change in the information available to the players regarding future probabilities of future states of the world.

“playing the player”, where tradere decisions are based on a strategic assessment of the likely behavior of other traders relative to the same informational signals provided by which THE TARGET will take first.

enuf said'
Crazy indeed

trade the trader
not the market
  • #1,980
  • Edited 12:39pm Jul 2, 2022 12:09pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting deanyakobs
... And if this is true, i think this is how market maker really work in his mathematic Algo code...... Movement from one equilibrium to another is determined entirely by changes in the perceived pay-offs of the possible decisions, which is another way of saying that behavioral change is determined entirely by a change in the information available to the players regarding future probabilities of future states of the world.
Hi bang deano, perhaps you are the first FF member to post the math view of Forex trading in the correct order - a thinking math algo. Well done.
Know what you trade
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